1. 06-13-14 12:24 PM #106
    TheMoneyShot
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    You only hedge when it's +EV

    Regardless of the situation.

    So technically he should of taken Spurs + Odds.
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  2. 06-13-14 12:51 PM #107
    jtoler
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    You're being results oriented.

    Assuming he liked the Heat a lot ,which I'm pretty sure he did to lay that much juice, then he made the right decision.

    Of course he is probably kicking himself but that has more to with his opinion on the game and not his opinion whether to hedge or not.
    Isnt gambling about results or youre just betting for fun, doesnt matter if he liked them alot, its not guaranteed they win and they didnt. He already said he wished he'd hedged, even a novice would see its the right decision here. Youre probably a horse guy and have the horse odds mentality, the animals are a little different.
    Last edited by jtoler; 06-13-14 at 12:57 PM.
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  3. 06-13-14 12:59 PM #108
    TheCentaur
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    Quote Originally Posted by daneblazer View Post
    You also have to consider the amount of times the parlay loses before it makes it to the 3rd leg, which is something that seems to be lost here.
    We are only discussing the hedge or not hedge situation in the 3rd leg here. The times the parlay loses in the first 2 legs is irrelevant to whether you should hedge the 3rd leg.
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  4. 06-15-14 05:50 AM #109
    TheCentaur
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    Quote Originally Posted by brooks85 View Post
    I don't even know how to plays craps nor have I ever, so don't have penetrating clue what you're talking about but I'm sure there is math to show your hypothetical should not be hedged. Congratulations.
    Ok lets use Blackjack, I'm sure you are familiar with it

    When you get a blackjack and the dealer has an ace up do you take even money (hedge) or hope the dealer doesn't have bj so you get 3 to 2?

    There is a reason every bj book in the world tells you to never take insurance (unless you're counting cards)

    Now I understand bankroll can play a part in the decision making, but when that is the case the error was made with the initial bet size
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  5. 06-15-14 09:27 AM #110
    amolg24
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCentaur View Post
    We are only discussing the hedge or not hedge situation in the 3rd leg here. The times the parlay loses in the first 2 legs is irrelevant to whether you should hedge the 3rd leg.
    Agreed, this should not be taken into account as it wouldn't always be a sure hedging opportunity
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  6. 06-15-14 10:00 AM #111
    u21c3f6
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    Misread.

    Joe.
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  7. 06-15-14 01:23 PM #112
    amolg24
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    248261876-1 6/15/14 2:00am $525.00 $500.81 Pending 2 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/15/14 3:00pm International Soccer 362 France (World Cup) -309* vs Honduras (World Cup)
    Win 6/15/14 3:00am Cricket Other Sports 801 India -210* vs Bangladesh
    248262035-1 6/15/14 2:05am $150.00 $200.68 Pending 4 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/15/14 3:00pm International Soccer 362 France (World Cup) -308* vs Honduras (World Cup)
    Win 6/15/14 8:00am WTA Tennis 401 Ana Ivanovic -765* vs Barbora Zahlavova Strycova
    Win 6/15/14 5:00am WTA Tennis 509 Magdalena Rybarikova -335* vs An-Sophie Mestach
    Pending 6/15/14 6:00am Cricket Other Sports 852 England wins 1st test -495* vs Sri Lanka wins 1st test
    248281837-1 6/15/14 11:31am $150.00 $197.55 Pending 3 Team Parlay
    Win 6/15/14 12:00pm International Soccer 322 Switzerland (World Cup) Over ½ -310* vs Ecuador (World Cup)
    Pending 6/15/14 3:00pm International Soccer 362 France (World Cup) -341* vs Honduras (World Cup)
    Pending 6/15/14 6:00pm International Soccer 402 Argentina (World Cup) -282* vs Bosnia and Herz (World Cup)
    248301125-1 6/15/14 1:37pm $150.00 $165.15 Pending 2 Team Parlay
    Pending 6/15/14 3:00pm International Soccer 362 France (World Cup) 1st Half Over ½ -225* vs Honduras (World Cup)
    Pending 6/15/14 6:00pm International Soccer 402 Argentina (World Cup) 1st Half Over ½ -220* vs Bosnia and Herz (World Cup

    So heres another example, except this time its soccer. Would you guys hedge at least a little bit on Hondouras +1200 just incase the upset happens? I know all the parlays aren't complete, but I feel strong that argentina will come through here so I have to assume that won't be the killer.
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  8. 06-15-14 01:59 PM #113
    amolg24
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    Nobody caught this in time? No worries, just for the record I decided to hedge this time for 100 to win 1200 because I had a couple other 3 teamers for mlb with France and so it was well worth it

    248311857-1 6/15/14 2:20pm $100.00 $1,200.00 Pending 6/15/14 3:00pm International Soccer 361 Honduras (World Cup) +1200* vs France (World Cup)

    I am aware that with a draw I lose...
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