Started a topic in the 'Sportsbooks & The Industry' Forum on how some line movements are moving consistently in 1 direction, while others go back 'n forth. Also, how non prime weekday events tend to be more true to form than on weekends, holidays and nationally televised prime events. Also, how totals seemingly tend to adhere to these situations more so than other play options with consistent line movements on non prime weekday events. So, am going to document this simple strategy here starting today (and as my availability permits). Details of the strategy's formula are as follows:
1) Full game (no halves, quarters, etc.) totals only will be possible plays.
2) Events played on weekends, holidays, and/or are nationally televised (including network {ABC, CBS, NBC & FOX} and cable (such as any ESPN channel, TBS, TNT, MLB, NBA, etc.) are excluded.
3) Could've selected any book for the primary source. Have randomly chosen Justbet who's lines (not odds on the line) tend to change frequently, and have purposely chosen Pinnacle as the secondary source, who's odds on the line change more than any other. Thus, will only be looking at Justbet & Pinnacle lines/odds.
4) Play will be made when line is consistently moving in 1 direction (minimum of at least 3 line movements in the same direction) on Justbet, and the odds are leaning towards that play on Pinnacle.
5) There are no other considerations, such as weather, officiating, injuries/late scratches, trends, human thinking, etc., as presume that has already all been factored into the line movements themselves.
6) To allow for the often and usually biggest line movements right before the scheduled start time, but to also allow readers to get the play in as well, plays will be posted about 2 minutes before the scheduled start time.
7) If the lines/odds move after the play is posted, basically the final line/odds movements and they head in the opposite direction to the posted play, then an '*' will be posted by the results to not have this play count for or against the strategy. If this consistently happens, will have to re-assess when and how the play is posted.
Will tweak the strategy along the way as necessary, and welcome any feedback from you all.
GLTA