1. #1
    4seasons
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    Line Movements

    Started a topic in the 'Sportsbooks & The Industry' Forum on how some line movements are moving consistently in 1 direction, while others go back 'n forth. Also, how non prime weekday events tend to be more true to form than on weekends, holidays and nationally televised prime events. Also, how totals seemingly tend to adhere to these situations more so than other play options with consistent line movements on non prime weekday events. So, am going to document this simple strategy here starting today (and as my availability permits). Details of the strategy's formula are as follows:

    1) Full game (no halves, quarters, etc.) totals only will be possible plays.

    2) Events played on weekends, holidays, and/or are nationally televised (including network {ABC, CBS, NBC & FOX} and cable (such as any ESPN channel, TBS, TNT, MLB, NBA, etc.) are excluded.

    3) Could've selected any book for the primary source. Have randomly chosen Justbet who's lines (not odds on the line) tend to change frequently, and have purposely chosen Pinnacle as the secondary source, who's odds on the line change more than any other. Thus, will only be looking at Justbet & Pinnacle lines/odds.

    4) Play will be made when line is consistently moving in 1 direction (minimum of at least 3 line movements in the same direction) on Justbet, and the odds are leaning towards that play on Pinnacle.

    5) There are no other considerations, such as weather, officiating, injuries/late scratches, trends, human thinking, etc., as presume that has already all been factored into the line movements themselves.

    6) To allow for the often and usually biggest line movements right before the scheduled start time, but to also allow readers to get the play in as well, plays will be posted about 2 minutes before the scheduled start time.

    7) If the lines/odds move after the play is posted, basically the final line/odds movements and they head in the opposite direction to the posted play, then an '*' will be posted by the results to not have this play count for or against the strategy. If this consistently happens, will have to re-assess when and how the play is posted.

    Will tweak the strategy along the way as necessary, and welcome any feedback from you all.

    GLTA

  2. #2
    4seasons
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    Looking at MLB today, though the odds (as always) change, the line for TX @ MN did not change at Justbet, so that would've been no play.

  3. #3
    4seasons
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    NOTE: Clarifying Detail #4 above specifically on the "minimum of at least 3 line movements," as follows:

    Is actually a minimum of 2 line movements from the line, such as:

    MLB Tigers @ A's game total went from 7.5 to 8 (1st line movement from the 7.5), to 8.5 (2nd line movement in the same direction from the 7.5). This would have potentially qualified as a play, depending on Pinnacle's odds, but has retracted back to 8 so now is no play at present.

  4. #4
    4seasons
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    Side note on the MLB Tigers @ A's game. Game total at Justbet has most recently gone from under 8.5 @ -115 to -120 down to Under 8 @ Even to -105. The odds at Pinnacle have gone from Under 8 @ +102 to -103 to -106. Clearly the lines/odds at both sites are heading strong in the Under 8 direction. Maybe we'll need to add this scenario to play possibilities, but we'll see. For now, and for something to do on this game, let's see if the movements to Under 8 hold true to form.

  5. #5
    4seasons
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    Seeing some consistent late moves at both books for the Under 8 in Philly & TO, but no official system plays as of yet in MLB. Will just be monitoring those on the side, like with the A's game which blew up the Under in the bot of the 9th naturally. There is a system play in WNBA with both books meeting criteria for an Under 140 in Indy. So, let's get this system rolling initially on lady hoops ...

    UNDER 140 (WNBA CT @ IN)

  6. #6
    theclutch7
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    If a line goes up 2 pts or more bet the other side!. The 4 point curse I call it take the4 dog!
    14 pts fav in football usually loses.
    Most NBA teams like to win it at home, pull those starters and Win It at home, look familar!

  7. #7
    4seasons
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    MLB Reds @ D-backs UNDER 8

  8. #8
    4seasons
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    Quote Originally Posted by theclutch7 View Post
    If a line goes up 2 pts or more bet the other side!. The 4 point curse I call it take the4 dog!
    14 pts fav in football usually loses.
    Most NBA teams like to win it at home, pull those starters and Win It at home, look familar!
    Double digit NFL & NBA dogs do seemingly to me do quite well. There were many road NBA playoff covers don't you know?

  9. #9
    4seasons
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    System 1-1 yesterday with the WNBA launch losing, and MLB winning. 1-2 on the monitored no plays.

    Looking at possible UNDERS in MLB Philly & Tampa, & OVER in WNBA NY @ WASH

  10. #10
    4seasons
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    System Play: WNBA OVER 149.5 NY @ WASH

  11. #11
    4seasons
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    No plays yet for MLB, but will monitor this hard lean for the UNDER 7.5 CO @ Cleve.

  12. #12
    4seasons
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    System goes to 0-2 in WNBA, and side plays monitored record goes to 3-3.

    System 1-0 in MLB

    Have a Wonderful Weekend!

  13. #13
    SeanL69
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    interesting stuff, i will watch!

  14. #14
    JR007
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    good luck

  15. #15
    4seasons
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    No system plays as of yet for tonight. There were late leans and/or movements in the same direction at both books with, and will be monitoring the following:

    UNDER 8 Bos @ Cle
    OVER 7 TB @ Mia

  16. #16
    ItsMeMrMattE
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    like the idea. im on the over 7.5 in the TB/MIA game. if you end up going with the over 7 in this game wouldn't it kinda go against your premiss? line opens at 7.5 and at a quick glance of 5dimes and Pinny the line consistently favored the under all the way down to 7.

  17. #17
    pavyracer
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    Line movements don't play sports. Remember that.

  18. #18
    4seasons
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    Quote Originally Posted by ItsMeMrMattE View Post
    like the idea. im on the over 7.5 in the TB/MIA game. if you end up going with the over 7 in this game wouldn't it kinda go against your premiss? line opens at 7.5 and at a quick glance of 5dimes and Pinny the line consistently favored the under all the way down to 7.
    That's why isn't a system play, and is just a play I'm monitoring as data for a potential alternate formula. The secret to the possible alternative formula is first looking at the 2 noted books, and seeing initially which direction the line moves, and then seeing if the final movements right before game-time follow. Now upon further review, the odds clearly followed this pattern for the Under in Cle until I posted, and then the final odds change was in the opposite direction at JB, so that becomes an '*'play. At 6:30 PM ET I saw the line went from Under 8.5 to 8, and right before I posted, the line on the Under 8 went from E to -101 and was heading to -105. So was on point until the last posted change had the line back to E.

    Now in Mia, totally blew the initial movements, which were all for the Under. Though the last line changes were both for the Over, this should not have even been a monitored play. Thank you sincerely for pointing out my error, though was not ever stated as a prime system play, was so on this side action monitored play posted. Am scrapping both monitored plays [currently 3-1 in 7th in Mia & 3-2 in Cle in 8th ... that's fair as both could easily still win].

  19. #19
    byronbb
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    Watch moves that cross over the opening #s especially if they jump across the number. So if it opens -105/-105 and the line goes to +104 then jumps across to +107, the favorite can probably be chased especially if game time is hours away.

  20. #20
    4seasons
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    Will be an enormous challenge to get the last movements, and still post before the event closes, as initially mentioned. So do beware, the formula is in part based on the FINAL movement. That's why the '*' was put in for system plays, as the odds can and will still change after I post. If they don't change after play is posted, or if the change continues in the same direction, the play is on. However, if the virtually unavoidable odds change in the end turns out to be in the opposite direction, then is NOT a system play.

  21. #21
    4seasons
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    UNDER 8 in Cle did win, but am NOT adding this or the still playing Mia game to the stats. Am not in ANY way trying to falsely or even cheesily beef up stats for appearance. A formula can only be as good as the accuracy of it's data, and I welcome being corrected anytime the posts are not 100% on point.

  22. #22
    4seasons
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    Quote Originally Posted by byronbb View Post
    Watch moves that cross over the opening #s especially if they jump across the number. So if it opens -105/-105 and the line goes to +104 then jumps across to +107, the favorite can probably be chased especially if game time is hours away.
    Routinely happens; am watching. Cheers

  23. #23
    4seasons
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Line movements don't play sports. Remember that.
    Yes, however, if a winning system can be designed using simple numbers to save me/us from having to do all the work myself/ourselves (which hasn't made me rich), then why not? As no matter how hard you study, NOTHING the bettor does plays the sport. Am simply defaulting to the numbers being more reliable than I.

  24. #24
    4seasons
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    And so that concludes this, my First Edition of Line Movements. Am revamping the formula & starting a new thread called ...Line Movements System For Game Totals. Need to simplify the concept further, so in the new thread you all can expect to find the following changes/upgrades:

    - For practical purposes, am done with pre-posting plays before the event starts.
    - Thus, there'll be no more '*' as those scenarios will now also easily be eliminated.
    - Formula will be simple for folks to follow on their own if they wish, and so I'll just keep the system's record posted.
    - No more WNBA and such, and so now will be posting in the MLB Forum.

    Perfect time to start new thread too, as today is the first business day in June, so we'll see what happens this month.
    Am posting the first play here, which is the only system play of tonight's card that would have been in action.

    Pitt @ SD UNDER 7 [Currently 3-0 in the 5th]

    Thank you all for your support!

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