1. 05-18-14 01:24 PM #1
    luvnpeas
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    Strange Pacers heat odds

    The Pacers are around +120 for the 1st game, but around +320 to win the series.

    Makes little sense. I bet on Heat at -135 for the first game, and Pacers +320 to win the series. Sort of a sloppy arbitrage....
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  2. 05-18-14 01:46 PM #2
    TheCentaur
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    Quote Originally Posted by luvnpeas View Post
    The Pacers are around +120 for the 1st game, but around +320 to win the series.

    Makes little sense. I bet on Heat at -135 for the first game, and Pacers +320 to win the series. Sort of a sloppy arbitrage....
    I think it makes a lot of sense if you realize what is best for the NBA, which is a long series and Miami advancing
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  3. 05-18-14 01:49 PM #3
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by luvnpeas View Post
    The Pacers are around +120 for the 1st game, but around +320 to win the series.

    Makes little sense. I bet on Heat at -135 for the first game, and Pacers +320 to win the series. Sort of a sloppy arbitrage....
    How is this crazy? Pacers are +120 for this HOME GAME. If they're +2 at home that means they're probably +8 (+350) for the road games.

    What you're doing is not arbitrage, or at least not arbitrage in your favor. You're paying double juice and pretty much guaranteeing you will lose.

    If the Heat do win this game our +320 will be pretty much worthless. It will go to +900. And if the Heat lose the +320 won't even fall that much, maybe +220.

    Odds are not strange.
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  4. 05-18-14 02:05 PM #4
    GoBlue77
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    another complete idiot. odds are fine. and u betting miami game 1 and pacers for series is amateur hour.
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  5. 05-18-14 02:38 PM #5
    BennyBigNuts
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    How is this crazy? Pacers are +120 for this HOME GAME. If they're +2 at home that means they're probably +8 (+350) for the road games.

    What you're doing is not arbitrage, or at least not arbitrage in your favor. You're paying double juice and pretty much guaranteeing you will lose.

    If the Heat do win this game our +320 will be pretty much worthless. It will go to +900. And if the Heat lose the +320 won't even fall that much, maybe +220.

    Odds are not strange.


    End of Thread
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  6. 05-18-14 03:10 PM #6
    jjgold
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    I think odds makers underestimating Indy

    It will be tough to beat this team 4 games
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  7. 05-18-14 03:14 PM #7
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    I think odds makers underestimating Indy

    It will be tough to beat this team 4 games
    Agree
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  8. 05-18-14 07:35 PM #8
    Ho Le Fuk
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    How is this crazy? Pacers are +120 for this HOME GAME. If they're +2 at home that means they're probably +8 (+350) for the road games.

    What you're doing is not arbitrage, or at least not arbitrage in your favor. You're paying double juice and pretty much guaranteeing you will lose.

    If the Heat do win this game our +320 will be pretty much worthless. It will go to +900. And if the Heat lose the +320 won't even fall that much, maybe +220.

    Odds are not strange.
    Or it'll fall by 50% to +160 for the series.
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  9. 05-18-14 07:56 PM #9
    broadway6
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    I think odds makers underestimating Indy

    It will be tough to beat this team 4 games

    Death kiss
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  10. 05-18-14 08:06 PM #10
    LT Profits
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    Heat may now be playable at -185 for series.
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  11. 05-18-14 08:29 PM #11
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    How is this crazy? Pacers are +120 for this HOME GAME. If they're +2 at home that means they're probably +8 (+350) for the road games.

    What you're doing is not arbitrage, or at least not arbitrage in your favor. You're paying double juice and pretty much guaranteeing you will lose.

    If the Heat do win this game our +320 will be pretty much worthless. It will go to +900. And if the Heat lose the +320 won't even fall that much, maybe +220.

    Odds are not strange.
    pacers now +165

    Odds fell quite a bit. Even I'm surprised.

    edit: i posted without reading. I see others have addressed this.
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  12. 05-18-14 09:20 PM #12
    pavyracer
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    Odds don't win games. Players, refs and the NBA commissioner win games.
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  13. 05-18-14 09:23 PM #13
    The Kraken
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    Odds maximize EG
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  14. 05-18-14 11:50 PM #14
    luvnpeas
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    How is this crazy? Pacers are +120 for this HOME GAME. If they're +2 at home that means they're probably +8 (+350) for the road games.

    What you're doing is not arbitrage, or at least not arbitrage in your favor. You're paying double juice and pretty much guaranteeing you will lose.

    If the Heat do win this game our +320 will be pretty much worthless. It will go to +900. And if the Heat lose the +320 won't even fall that much, maybe +220.

    Odds are not strange.
    Having roughly the same odds for road games as you do for a series, when you have home-court advantage in the series, doesn't make sense to me.

    In comparison, the series and game odds for Spurs - Thunder are nearly the same.

    I checked for odds just now (after Heat lost), and didn't see any for the series. If you're right that the Heat will be around -220, then the it will be hard to cover the bet.
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  15. 05-19-14 06:57 AM #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by luvnpeas View Post
    Having roughly the same odds for road games as you do for a series, when you have home-court advantage in the series, doesn't make sense to me.

    In comparison, the series and game odds for Spurs - Thunder are nearly the same.

    I checked for odds just now (after Heat lost), and didn't see any for the series. If you're right that the Heat will be around -220, then the it will be hard to cover the bet.
    Heat are between -185 and -190 right now.
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  16. 05-19-14 07:09 AM #16
    jjgold
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    You got to be insane to lay juice with the Miami Heat to win series with no home-court advantage it's gambling suicide
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  17. 05-19-14 07:18 AM #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    You got to be insane to lay juice with the Miami Heat to win series with no home-court advantage it's gambling suicide
    Even taking -200 now will look GREAT if they win Game 2, as price would then be -400. Not insane at all if you think Miami is the better team, which I do. I just don't see Pacers winning 4 out of 7 against them.
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  18. 05-19-14 09:43 AM #18
    The Kraken
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    And why not just bet them to win game 2?

    Right now you can get them at -135 for game 2 or -190 for the series, which is heavily influenced by them winning game 2. If the win game 2, you got much better odds at -135, if they lose, then you can em up at +175 for the series.
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  19. 05-19-14 10:40 AM #19
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    And why not just bet them to win game 2?

    Right now you can get them at -135 for game 2 or -190 for the series, which is heavily influenced by them winning game 2. If the win game 2, you got much better odds at -135, if they lose, then you can em up at +175 for the series.
    Or you can make separate bets on series and individual games!
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  20. 05-19-14 09:59 PM #20
    The Kraken
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    You could, I just don't think it's smart. But you're a sharp cat, good luck
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