Are you just going off gut and feel stax or are you crunching some numbers? I don't typically bet mlb but I'm thinking about starting to with nhl and nba winding down.
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05-23-14 09:58 AM #36
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05-24-14 05:36 AM #37
Net : -$165
Originally Posted by STAX
Bankroll : $2461.83
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05-24-14 05:43 AM #38
Saturday May 24th ($2461.83)
Indians (+110) : $200 to win $220
Red Sox (+127) : $100 to win $127
Yankees -1.5 (+150) : $100 to win $150
parlaying all 3 : $50 to win $545.88
Pacers under 87.5 : $110 to win $100 (from thursday)
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05-24-14 02:21 PM #39
I crunch zero numbers, I look at zero trends, I look at zero line movements, I dont care who public is on, etc etc etc. I rarely look at team records. I base more on run differential and streak. I base everything off of momentum, motivation, team chemistry, importance of the game for each team, streaks, and pitching. I look for instances that occur that can turn a team's momentum to try to predict positive or negative streaks. But one factor that goes into accurately predicting a lot of these things is the manager/coach. I also look for 50/50 games and take the underdog. I almost take any dog at +220 or more no matter what as baseball is a game where the worst team will beat the best team 1/3 times in most cases. Originally Posted by ARoot55
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05-24-14 07:18 PM #40
Got greedy with the Yankee run line, if redsox win its gonna cost me a parlay... quickly figuring out run lines arent usually a good bet
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05-24-14 07:49 PM #41
First off thanks for the reply in my thread. See any value in any of the late games tonight?
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05-24-14 08:09 PM #42
Nice thanks Stax good luck I'll be tailing from time to time. Originally Posted by STAX
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05-25-14 12:52 AM #43
Don't take my strategies to heart. I'm a rookie sports better. Dabbled in football the last two years for fun, got semi serious around the first of this year when I almost nailed a 8000 to 1 parlay in college bowl season (Auburn loss to FSU cost me 43K on a $17.50 investment, and I didnt hedge anything). I had 3 small parlays, one of which was $5 to win $39K, and all 3 came down to Auburn winning the title. But the way I reacted was what got me thinking I could do this. I wasn't heartbroken or distraught in the slightest... I understand sports, and I can deal with the heartbreak. I played poker professionally on and off from 2004-2010, and I found it near impossible to mentally deal with the swings. I won money overall but that total should have been about 10x what it was, and maybe 100 times what it was if I had any discipline. Now, playing poker professionally online in the USA is near impossible, plus basically everyone is at least semi-knowledgable about the game. Sports is different. I dont have that emotional attachment I had while playing poker, and Ive been a football, hoops, and baseball fan my whole life. Played all 3 through high school, football and baseball in college, and watched them all my whole life. I understand that its TEAM games we are betting on, and I understand what it takes for TEAMS to be successful. I've only been playing off a bankroll for a week, as Im experimenting with straight bets for the first time. Im not doing this for a living or anything like that so I still play parlays for excitement, but Im trying to weigh the ups and downs of various bets.
One thing I now for sure is if you want to be successful at any form of gambling (Poker or Sports), you MUST MUST MUST think outside the box. If it was easy enough to make money off this by reading a book or learning from your buddy, everyone would do it. Truth is hardly anyone can do it, but I'm giving it a small go around to see if I can win in the long run. You just have to be honest with yourself first... not every play is gonna hit... you are going to make bonehead bets A LOT!! Learn from it, and move on. Review your bets, and be smarter in the future.
Oh, and I rarely watch the games I bet on. For some reason I find it very entertaining to just keep hitting refresh on ESPN to see the score changes. Not watching every game you bet on helps keep your emotions in check for sure. Unless you are betting for the thrill (which to some extent we all do), I do not recommend watching every game possible that you bet on.Last edited by STAX; 05-25-14 at 01:07 AM.
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05-25-14 01:01 AM #44
Net : +$70 Originally Posted by STAX
Bankroll : $2531.83
Super close to hitting everything and winning over $1100 today. NYY won by 1 in extras and Boston lost by 1 in 15 innings... even though is was a small daily win, I am very satisfied with my decisions. I put my self in a good spot to add 50% to my roll in one day on 4 games. And winning the big bet was huge, I loved the Tribe today.Last edited by STAX; 05-25-14 at 01:05 AM.
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05-25-14 01:29 AM #45
Big hit today. I feel it!
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05-25-14 04:46 AM #46
All right Jay, I just had a big idea before I started making my picks for Sunday. And then I saw that you "feel it", so I am going for a large score. I'm going to give an in depth analysis, of why I LOVE THE INDIANS (+106) to win Sunday @ Baltimore. And why I love the over 9 runs. Originally Posted by Jayvegas420
Ive been killing it with the Indians and absolutely love them tomorrow @ Baltimore and Trevor Bauer pitching. This guys feeds off of the rest of the team, and he really has a great chance to earn a permanent spot in the rotation. He has a plethora of pitches, and that is tough for an opposing offense to get used to when you havent faced a guy like that before. He's not gonna pitch a CG shutout, he just has to have a quality start, and HE KNOWS IT!! He's maturing in the fact that he isn't going out there to try to throw a complete game shutout with 15 K's. He's going out there trying to give his team the best chance to win, and the kid is understanding that winning is what's gonna keep him in the big leagues for good. It wasn't long ago he was said to be the next Tim Lincecum. But for now, he knows he needs to go 6 innings, not 9 innings. The Indians entire bullpen got a much needed day off, thanks to Cory Kluber today, which is something that WAS ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL for this team. That's the kind of effort you need from the ace of your staff, and Cory Kluber is the ACE of this staff right now.
Guys, everyone is worried about the Indians starting pitching but I tell you Cory Kluber will be an All Star, and Trevor Bauer is here to stay. You may see him in the All Star game in 2015. This is what good managers/coaches do well. They motivate other guys to step up when the big horses are struggling. Masterson and Salazar were supposed to be the studs. Masty is struggling and Salazar is gone for now. Enter Kluber, and maybe Bauer... he gets a big chance Sunday.
This Indians team is starting to look like last year's team that won 90+ games. The bats as a whole, and the lineup in general is starting to come to form. Santana is having a nightmare start, but Tito is NOT giving up on him, and he put one out late in a blowout Saturday, and a HR like that, when the team is on fire, can turn around a season for a talented guy who is struggling. This is a slightly above average offense overall, but they make the other team earn every out they get. They work the count and have stopped striking out so much. This little stuff means the difference in 3.5 runs per game and 4.5 runs per game. I can't see any way in hell that Miguel Gonzalez and the Baltimore pen holds the Tribe to under 4 runs. NO CHANCE IN HELL!!!! So the bet for me is to take the Indians (+106) and over 9 runs (-105)... this means the worst that can happen is the Indians lose 5-4.
Also, Chris Davis and Manny Machado may not play. Matt Weiters is unlikely to play...
Without going in to detail, I also like OKC to win convincingly at home and I'm gonna get greedy on a parlay...
So...
Sunday May 25th ($2531.83)
Indians (+106) : $500 to win $530
CLE/BAL over 9 (-105) : $525 to win $500
OKC (-145) : $145 to win $100
OKC over 105.5 (-110) : $110 to win $100
3 team parlay :
Indians (+105)
CLE/BAL over 9 (-110)
OKC (-145)
$100 to win $1122.54
4 team parlay :
Indians (+105)
CLE/BAL over 9 (-110)
OKC -7 (+185)
OKC over 105.5 (-110)
$100 to win $2029.27
Let's hammer this today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Last edited by STAX; 05-25-14 at 04:56 AM.
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05-25-14 09:56 AM #47
May tail that parlay and the Indians single...looks good...gl today...
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05-25-14 12:29 PM #48
Tailing with Indians and the over...
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05-25-14 01:12 PM #49
you sold me on the Indians but I just don't think Durant has it today. Parker Ginobli and Duncan look simply unstoppable.I hate to cheer against you Staxy, took the Spurs at plus 125 last night. Sprinkling a little on the tribe though.
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05-25-14 01:19 PM #50
WagerType:PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
Date: Team:
May 25 NHL [13] TOTAL o5+110 (MONTREAL vrs N.Y. RANGERS)
May 25 MLB [960] SAN DI -141 [Action]
May 25 MLB [978] SEATTL -146 [Action]
Risking 94 SBR To Win 474.50 SBR
Ticket#: 2511646
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05-25-14 03:04 PM #51
dont worry fellas, Tribe got this
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05-25-14 10:23 PM #52
Net : -$1025.00 Originally Posted by STAX
Bankroll : $1506.83
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05-25-14 10:57 PM #53
brutal...I tried depositing but my card didnt work thankfully...I would have lost too...sometimes I think I will miss out on a nice win and others when I dont get the play in at all its a blessing...gl going foward stax...
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05-26-14 08:21 AM #54
Monday May 26th ($1506.83)
DET/OAK over 7.5 (-120) : $60 to win $50
CLE/CWS over 8.5 (-110) : $55 to win $50
Nationals -1.5 (+165) : $50 to win $82.50
4 team parlay :
Pacers (+245)
Nationals -1.5 (+165)
Braves -1.5 (+175)
White Sox -1.5 (+175)
$25 to win $1703.50
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05-26-14 10:56 AM #55
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05-26-14 11:47 AM #56
thanks, i actually like that 4 teamer for a big payout... kind of my way of chasing a big loss.
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05-26-14 08:25 PM #57
Net : -$80 Originally Posted by STAX
Bankroll : $1426.83
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05-27-14 01:38 AM #58
Tuesday May 28th ($1426.83)
OKC (-143) : $143 to win $100
OKC (+320) to win West : $200 to win $640
Padres (+125) : $50 to win $62.50
SD/ARI under 9 (-110) : $55 to win $50
Dodgers -1.5 (+150) : $50 to win $75
LAD/CIN over 6.5 (+106) : $50 to win $53
Nationals -1.5 (+190) : $50 to win $95
Blue Jays -1.5 (+170) : $50 to win $85
White Sox (-162) : $81 to win $50
Twins +1.5 (-121) : $60.50 to win $50
A's -1.5 (+190) : $50 to win $95
BOS/ATL over 7 (-116) : $58 to win $50
BAL/MIL over 8 (-105) : $52.50 to win $50
3 team parlay :
OKC (-150)
White Sox (-165)
BOS/ATL over 7 (-116)
$250 to win $1020.48
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05-27-14 10:36 PM #59
Everything looking to win except A's -1.5... Quite a few cancelled though but lookin to be great night
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05-28-14 01:37 AM #60
Net : +$1545.98 Originally Posted by STAX
Bankroll : $2972.81
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05-28-14 02:18 AM #61
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05-28-14 04:05 AM #62
Nice day. Originally Posted by STAX
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05-28-14 04:10 AM #63
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05-28-14 02:53 PM #64
Wednesday May 28th ($2972.81)
MIL/BAL over 7.5 (-107) : $53.50 to win $50
DET/OAK over 7 (-110) : $55 to win $50
Pacers (+102) : $100 to win $102
Reds (+180) : $100 to win $180
Rays (-107) : $107 to win $100
parlaying all 5 : $50 to won $1855.20
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05-29-14 12:20 AM #65
Net +$127.00 Originally Posted by STAX
Bankroll : $3099.81
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05-29-14 12:33 AM #66
Thursday May 29th ($3099.81)
OKC/SA over 206.5 (-102) : $306 to win $300
OKC (+175) : $50 to win $87.50
Royals +1.5 (-190) : $95 to win $50
BAL/HOU over 9 (+100) : $50 to win $50
2 team parlay :
OKC/SA over 206.5 (-110)
Kansas City +1.5 (-200)
$100 to win $186.36
Love the over in the SA/OKC game, and I like Shields to hold Toronto to 3 or less...Last edited by STAX; 05-29-14 at 12:38 AM.
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05-29-14 10:35 PM #67
Net : -$456.00 Originally Posted by STAX
Bankroll : $2643.81
What a brutal 2nd half and ending to the OKC/SA game... Almost a $1000 fluctuation swing... Tomorrows picks later tonight
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05-30-14 11:30 AM #68
Time to bounce back
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05-30-14 12:40 PM #69
1 point ... they hardly scored in the last quarter ...
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05-30-14 01:39 PM #70
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