[seaborneq]

1. If you can stay away from parlays and props you will automatically be ahead of the game. Betting parlays and props is like throwing anchors to a drowning person, you will kill them before they drown, or in gambling terms; you will deplete your bankroll before you learn anything.

2. Big games make the same amount of money as little games. There is no difference between betting the Super Bowl or the last game of the regular season. The line is set to equal the action on both sides for each.

3. Stay away from games with injured players. All the research in the world will not help you when a team does not know what the affect of an injury means.

4. Moneylines are not profitable. The moment you pluck your money down on a moneyline is the only time you believe that team has a chance to lose. Also, don't ever put a moneyline in a parlay, that sure thing will sink you every time.

5. Don't let last game results affect next game results. A team blown out in one game is only blown in that game, not the next one. Clean slate for the next game. A team that plays perfect in one game, plays perfect in only that game, not the next one. Again, clean slate next game.

6. Don't depend on players individually. Bet the team.

7. Nothing shakes your confidence like making a wager. All the certainty in the world goes out the window once you put money on it.

8. Don't do Totals. Just as bad as parlays and props.

9. When you lose, don't lose the lesson. When you win, don't think you are great.

10. Don't hedge on +futures. Make the bet and forget it. Can't make it up at the end. It wins or it loses.

[xyzky]

1. Just bring the sports page to the book.
2. Handicap for at least 5 minutes.
3. Have a set amount to lose, maybe $50 if you are an out of work railroad flagman
4. Write down the numbers of some solid teams on top of the card.
5. Walk to the window.

6. Place 5 $10 6-team parlays with a bunch of solid teams with big players
7. Buy a beer
8. Start yelling and cussing when you're parlays all start to fukk.
9 kick you're chair over.
10. Go home broke.

LOVE IT!!

[PAULYPOKER]

If you have to wait until week 5 to place a wager on the NFL, get out now. What a loser. Since Big Ben can not play for the 1st 4 weeks, according to that stupid philosophy, you would not be able to wager any Pitt games until after week 8, because it will take Pitt that long to reestablish their "identity". Duh???? That is the dumbest post so far, exceeding you play all the sports rule and your Sports gambling is the best gambling rule. No wonder you lost so much money last season in football. Some things just never change.

Big Daddy, I still haven't figured you out yet for the fact I can't understand how you can go from one post being very intelligent with great insight to being defined as total loss of mind on the next...

1.Do you do this on purpose?
2.Is this a mental illness you have?
3.All of the above?
I know one of these accusations are for sure> it's either one or the other or both.............

I can help you know but you must be willing to exorcise your Demons first.................

BDQH,I want you to lay on my couch,close your eyes, relax,now concentrate and tell me your deepest and darkest fears

------------------
Trust me...

[dinaro7]

i dis agree you cant win on a consistant bases in any sport

[PAULYPOKER]

i dis agree you cant win on a consistant bases in any sport

All the proof you need is in my Thread titled>
This is what really happened in the Superbowl.........

It has my well documented NFL record in it which was 100% on posted plays plus a great deal of my own philosophy of the subject.....

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-handic...superbowl.html



I must warn you,, I get pretty ruthless in this thread but it has to be this way to keep my composure and focus..........

It is nothing personal I just like to call it tough love.....

[JohnGalt2341]

1. Don't bet more then you can afford to lose, Golden rule. 2. Majority of your bets should be straight/single wagers. Parlays are sucker bets but sometimes 2-Game parlays can be very handy but don't go for 5-Game, 10-Game Crazy parlays. 3. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession. 4. Patience & Discipline is the key. Develop these skills. 5. Money management is extremely important. Use a money management system and stick with it religiously. 6. There should not be dramatical difference between your stakes. Don't place 2 unit on Game-A, 10 Unit on Game-B and 40 Unit then Game-C. 7. Be selective. Pick your spots and wait for the right opportunity. 8. Always shop for the best line, Always! So you should have an account in multiple books. 9. Set goals, write down your goals. Realize your target in your head first. 10. Always check THA DIESEL's thread before placing a bet. His Jinx is too strong. Final rule is probably the most important one

These are great rules to follow. Probably the best 10 that I've read in this thread but I'd like to hear about some of your specifics. For instance, 1 Unit is what percentage of your Bankroll? What is the most Units you would bet on a single game? As far as goals go, how many Units do you realistically try to win in an average month?

[crazymilkman]

i like rule no 3.....its the most important, i think.

[crazymilkman]

When you lose, don't lose the lesson. When you win, don't think you are great.( i like this )

[Poogs]

1. If you can stay away from parlays and props you will automatically be ahead of the game. Betting parlays and props is like throwing anchors to a drowning person, you will kill them before they drown, or in gambling terms; you will deplete your bankroll before you learn anything.

2. Big games make the same amount of money as little games. There is no difference between betting the Super Bowl or the last game of the regular season. The line is set to equal the action on both sides for each.

3. Stay away from games with injured players. All the research in the world will not help you when a team does not know what the affect of an injury means.

4. Moneylines are not profitable. The moment you pluck your money down on a moneyline is the only time you believe that team has a chance to lose. Also, don't ever put a moneyline in a parlay, that sure thing will sink you every time.

5. Don't let last game results affect next game results. A team blown out in one game is only blown in that game, not the next one. Clean slate for the next game. A team that plays perfect in one game, plays perfect in only that game, not the next one. Again, clean slate next game.

6. Don't depend on players individually. Bet the team.

7. Nothing shakes your confidence like making a wager. All the certainty in the world goes out the window once you put money on it.

8. Don't do Totals. Just as bad as parlays and props.

9. When you lose, don't lose the lesson. When you win, don't think you are great.

10. Don't hedge on +futures. Make the bet and forget it. Can't make it up at the end. It wins or it loses.

I'm pretty sure this is a sarcastic post, but if not...this is literally the worst advice ever. Its actually so bad its useful. You can do pretty much the opposite of 8 or 9 of these "rules" and allready be ahead of the curve.

[teaserpleaser]

I'm pretty sure this is a sarcastic post, but if not...this is literally the worst advice ever. Its actually so bad its useful. You can do pretty much the opposite of 8 or 9 of these "rules" and allready be ahead of the curve.

[GunShard]

I heard of this funny advice:

Rule #1: Don't gamble at all!

[frankzig]

All the rules seem to have some sort of truth to them

[Sawyer]

1. If you can stay away from parlays and props you will automatically be ahead of the game. Betting parlays and props is like throwing anchors to a drowning person, you will kill them before they drown, or in gambling terms; you will deplete your bankroll before you learn anything.

2. Big games make the same amount of money as little games. There is no difference between betting the Super Bowl or the last game of the regular season. The line is set to equal the action on both sides for each.

4. Moneylines are not profitable. The moment you pluck your money down on a moneyline is the only time you believe that team has a chance to lose. Also, don't ever put a moneyline in a parlay, that sure thing will sink you every time.

8. Don't do Totals. Just as bad as parlays and props.

9. When you lose, don't lose the lesson. When you win, don't think you are great.

1. I'm not a big fan of parlays, majority of my bets (%95 approximately) are straight/single wagers. However, don't write off parlays. 2-Game Parlays can be very handy sometimes. As long as you don't play 4-Game (or more) parlays, you should be fine. Going 3-1 but losing money is a very bad thing. Don't have more then 2-bets on your parlay ticket.

2. Well said. You should not place a big bet because it's a big game.

4. Moneylines can be very profitable specially in NBA, specially for small underdogs. If spread is less, Why pick underdog+2? Pick it straight if you believe they can win outright!

8. You can't be serious. Totals are easier to beat then side bets specially in basketball. Books are very vulnerable in totals. Do you know why limit for totals are lower then side bets?

9. Agreed. Majority of sports bettor feel overconfident after winning a bet and they start to bet over their head. They think they're John Anthony and they take more risk..

[curious]

[B]

9. Agreed. Majority of sports bettor feel overconfident after winning a bet and they start to bet over their head. They think they're John Anthony and they take more risk..

I was in Vegas last year and saw a guy win something like $20,000 in one day on baseball. I don't remember exactly how, I think he hit some parlays. The next weekend he was back and he went all in on all the big favs. I think he had one fav at -300. I told him that this was unwise and he would be better off to put his $20,000 in a CD at the bank and use a few hundred for "gambling". He lost the entire $20,000. His nice wife was in tears.

[mrmarket]

I know some of you are well intentioned but this thread is about as sharp a butter knife. Trixtrix is the post you should follow even if he spelled EV wrong.

[coloradobuff]

bet with your head, not your heart

[Poogs]

This is like a study of human nature. People with absolutely no expertise in this field telling other people what to do. Its kind of interesting actually; do humans just like to act like experts instinctivly?

[rkelly110]

I haven't any rules, as Curious stated earlier, find an edge and exploit it.

Rules are meant to be broken.

My MLB edge: DON'T BET AGAINST A TEAM THAT LOST 2 OR MORE GAMES IN A ROW.

[seaborneq]

I was in Vegas last year and saw a guy win something like $20,000 in one day on baseball. I don't remember exactly how, I think he hit some parlays. The next weekend he was back and he went all in on all the big favs. I think he had one fav at -300. I told him that this was unwise and he would be better off to put his $20,000 in a CD at the bank and use a few hundred for "gambling". He lost the entire $20,000. His nice wife was in tears.

Those moneylines will kill you in the end.

[icancount2one]

This is like a study of human nature. People with absolutely no expertise in this field telling other people what to do. Its kind of interesting actually; do humans just like to act like experts instinctivly?

I think it's just a collision of a lot of the fallacies that the book counts on: Correlation = cause and confirmation bias being the two most obvious.

There's some good common sense in here about money management and not letting what team you root for or how many people are watching the game influence you too much, but I haven't seen this much square thinking since geometry class!

[OTL]

bet with your head, not your heart

Bet with your gut, not your head. And if your instincts are poor, you shouldn't be wagering on sports.

[icancount2one]

Well instead of busting on other's rules, however easy that may be, perhaps I should write my own set.

1. The first rule of sports betting is you do not talk about sports betting (with friends, co-workers, girls, etc)

2. The second rule of sports betting is YOU DO NOT TALK ABOUT SPORTS BETTING! (with anyone who's not also a bettor)

3. Never tease through the zero.

4. No uncorrelated parlays.

5. No chasing or taking crazy risks on one game.

6. Shop for lines, take action with friends if you disagree on games. Exchanges like matchbook help as well.

7. Bet with your head, but take input from your gut.

8. Never make bets with anyone you don't know.

9. Never make a bet when you're desperate.

10. All rules and opinions about betting are subject to change as you learn from experience and people more successful than you. Remember that your way is not the only way.

[brooks85]

these are basically the only rules I follow

1. Money Management
2. Do not bet everyday
3. Do not bet a huge card

[GunShard]

Definitely control your emotions. Emotions can take over your Intellect.

[curious]

I haven't any rules, as Curious stated earlier, find an edge and exploit it.

Rules are meant to be broken.

My MLB edge: DON'T BET AGAINST A TEAM THAT LOST 2 OR MORE GAMES IN A ROW.

I ran the stats on this. If you bet against road dogs who have lost more than 2 games in a row you would be 88-44 +18 units.

Betting against home dogs who have lost more than 2 games in a row you would be 30-20 +4 units

Betting against home favs who have lost more than 2 games in a row you would be soldily in negative territory. 26-44 -13 units.

Betting against road favs who have lost more than 2 games i a row you would be 16-25 -7 units.

SOOOO, I would reword this rule to read:
Bet against dogs who have lost more than 2 games in a row.
Bet with favs who have lost more than 2 games in a row.

If you had been doing that blind all year you would be 69-42 +15 units on betting with the favs and 118-64 +22 units betting against the dogs. For a total of 187-106 +37 units.

Hmmm, with some decent filters this might not be a bad strategy.

[curious]

Breaking this down by team. Here is how you would fare betting against the dogs who have lost more than 2 in a row if you only bet against the dogs that have a losing record in that situation. The $Against columns tells you how much you would have won.

W-L WL% $For $AGainst Team
2-4 (-0.50, 33.3%) -95 55 Brewers
1-2 (-0.33, 33.3%) -100 90 White Sox
0-1 (-1.00, 0.0%) -100 100 Cardinals
2-4 (-0.33, 33.3%) -155 135 Rangers
1-3 (-0.75, 25.0%) -165 155 Dodgers
1-4 (-2.40, 20.0%) -270 260 Angels
0-3 (-2.33, 0.0%) -300 300 Giants
1-5 (-1.50, 16.7%) -330 300 Nationals
0-4 (-3.50, 0.0%) -400 400 Braves
7-16 (-2.17, 30.4%) -600 510 Orioles
6-17 (-2.30, 26.1%) -750 630 Pirates
4-14 (-2.67, 22.2%) -820 750 Astros
2-12 (-1.64, 14.3%) -895 855 Diamondbacks

And this table shows the favs that you would want to bet on after losing more than 2 games in a row:
W-L WL% $For $Against
4-0 (3.00, 100.0%) 400 -400 Rays
5-1 (4.50, 83.3%) 390 -405 Marlins
3-0 (1.67, 100.0%) 300 -300 Cardinals
3-0 (3.67, 100.0%) 300 -300 Yankees
3-0 (2.33, 100.0%) 300 -300 Rockies
4-1 (1.60, 80.0%) 285 -300 Astros
2-0 (7.00, 100.0%) 200 -200 Athletics
3-1 (1.50, 75.0%) 180 -190 Tigers
3-1 (4.00, 75.0%) 180 -190 Blue Jays
1-0 (1.00, 100.0%) 100 -100 White Sox
1-0 (3.00, 100.0%) 100 -100 Orioles
1-0 (1.00, 100.0%) 100 -100 Rangers
1-0 (12.00, 100.0%) 100 -100 Twins
2-1 (-0.33, 66.7%) 90 -105 Royals
4-3 (1.00, 57.1%) 55 -90 Cubs
3-2 (0.60, 60.0%) 45 -65 Giants
4-3 (1.29, 57.1%) 35 -60 Brewers
3-2 (-1.00, 60.0%) 25 -45 Diamondbacks
3-2 (0.60, 60.0%) 15 -30 Nationals

[str]

Sometimes a no play is the best play.
That Sunday night and or Monday night get even thought process is for complete LOSERS.
Learn from EVERY play.
Never stop learning!

[GunShard]

"2. Big games make the same amount of money as little games. There is no difference between betting the Super Bowl or the last game of the regular season. The line is set to equal the action on both sides for each."

Wow, this rule should be applied to MMA as well.

That main event of Lesnar vs Carwin fight. Everyone bets on it like the Super Bowl, but people should look at the other underrated fights the same way. That fight was a bad spot to bet.

[GonzosDirtyTrail]

These are pretty self explanatory.

1. There's always tomorrow as long as you're managing your money.
2. Don't parlay or prop.
3. Don't play games higher than -130?
4. After a big win, cash out EVERYTHING, wait a few days, then bet again.
5. Remember the real financial impacts of the betting deposits.
6. It's just a game, control your emotions.

...I have more, but no more time to post. Back to work!

[BadaBingSports]

You can't win if you can't bet
you can't bet if you don't retain capital
You won't retain capital if you don't manage risk

Small bets and managing risk will get you to where you want to be.

Working off of a system helps eliminate emotion from the game, this is vital.

[BillAccpetor]

Definitely control your emotions. Emotions can take over your Intellect.

I think only 1% are able to do this. A big loss makes your brain standby...

Working off of a system helps eliminate emotion from the game, this is vital.

Combine this with a money management of using max. 2% of your bankroll and you are able to make money!

[That Foreign Guy]

1) Learn how to make Kelly-sized bets.

2) Build in a margin of error to your estimates.

3) Don't worry about your win percentage. There can be value in massive favorites and massive dogs.

4) Learn how to evaluate a promotion and exploit it.

5) Find people smarter than you and learn what you can from them.

6) Teach people dumber than you and learn what you can from teaching.

7) Look for correlated parlays.

8) Uncorrelated parlays should probably just be avoided. The exception is when you want to buy a lottery ticket and play 8 gamers for a big score / just to have some action.

9) Look for cross-market plays. There are a surprising number of middles etc available.

10) Find your specialty but don't get stuck to it.

[That Foreign Guy]

Combine this with a money management of using max. 2% of your bankroll and you are able to make money!

Unless you're only making about even money bets, this leaves a lot of money on the table. A lot of the value is in the bridge jumpers and long shots (for example, I put 50% of my bankroll on betting England not to win the world cup at -700 because the true odds were so much worse).

[Ratzz]

Seaborneq's was best... most insightful.
will have to look at much earlier posts..
hat's off to SBQ

[ukbsktbll]

My favorite is don't bet when mad or pissed because another game lost. Lost some good money that way.