[a4u2fear]

Ok, so I have been going through 100s of ways to bet NHl games, estimate scores, etc.

my latest, the results:
Pick every game on the PL after 20 games per team using a strategy to estimate the goal total per game compared with the associated PL, wagering 1u per game, results:
07-08, +112u
08-09, +69u
09-10, +16u
10-11, +120u
11-12, +126u

ive double checked the PL odds, the formulas, the calculations and there are 0 mistakes. I've forgotten about it (on purpose) a few times to revisit it and see if again I missed something or made a mistake, so far, none.

any thoughts? Am I crazy? I'm dumbfounded it's this good. Of course since I can pick the PL, I can also successfully pick the ML

[flsaders85]

Overfitting?

[a4u2fear]

I'm not sure what you mean.

[LT Profits]

Overfitting?

If it worked for 2012-13, 2013-14 without any tweaks, he could be on to something.

[LT Profits]

I'm not sure what you mean.

Test your system out of sample and do not apply to same years you used to develop system.

[BetterBizness]

we're rich!

[agendaman]

they all fail eventually

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Without knowing the details, no way to say for certain.

"If it seems too good to be true...." really does apply with gambling though. Inevitably, past data will have patterns that appear to be meaningful, but are just natural variance.

[gui_m_p]

Ok, so I have been going through 100s of ways to bet NHl games, estimate scores, etc.

my latest, the results:
Pick every game on the PL after 20 games per team using a strategy to estimate the goal total per game compared with the associated PL, wagering 1u per game, results:
07-08, +112u
08-09, +69u
09-10, +16u
10-11, +120u
11-12, +126u

ive double checked the PL odds, the formulas, the calculations and there are 0 mistakes. I've forgotten about it (on purpose) a few times to revisit it and see if again I missed something or made a mistake, so far, none.

any thoughts? Am I crazy? I'm dumbfounded it's this good. Of course since I can pick the PL, I can also successfully pick the ML

Your system picked every game, or just the games that fit a criteria? If you tested against all games, we are talking about 6k games, correct?

[a4u2fear]

The system was not developed using a set of games.

the system picked all games after each team played 20 and did not distinguish between any. The difference in estimates for each team compared to the PL is what swayed my decision to pick one side or the other but always picked for each game

[a4u2fear]

went through the games to find out if I could've gotten here by luck, so I found the avg puck line for my dog puck line bets and my fav puck line bets.

Avg Fav PL = +177
Avg Dog PL = -216

Results, using a binomial calculator, there was a 5% chance I could've just gotten lucky on the Fav PL results, but just a .3% chance I got lucky betting the Dog PL.

Combined, that is the percentage after betting almost 6000 games.

[slapshot]

are you willing to share anything on what how you estimate each team compared to the PL?

[a4u2fear]

I'm willing to share the plays, starting next season.

[basket33]

great, thx, waiting for october... did you try to test it in lower leagues or some european

[a4u2fear]

great, thx, waiting for october... did you try to test it in lower leagues or some european

NHL only. It also does not have any plays until 300 total NHL games have been played. Which means it will begin around mid-November.

[killawookie]

Thats ALOT of action. Would be beneficial to be on a site that rewards action or to grind out a huge bonus rollover for even more +EV opportunities

I started something similar the start of the year and got tired of tracking it.. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...lE&usp=sharing

[antonyp22]

I read in the description that you have bet EVERY game and you have got such impressive results. A staking system where the units bet increases as the discrepancy between your prediction and the book's prediction increases could yield even better results. Have you tried this on the back-testing of your predictive model?

[a4u2fear]

I am in the US and only have a local so I likely won't be able to bet many games with him, but if the system is the real deal, may need a group to make bets for me.

i have not had enough time to spend a ton of time back testing. I've only separated the results by playing home dog and fav puck lines, and away dog and fav puck lines, along with each ML. The MLs obviously are working to. I will get the results in a table and post.

have the whole summer for analysis

[smoke a bowl]

Can I book this system going forward?

[PassTheDutchie]

I can help you with getting more bets in. Already doing it for another group.
Also, I am not in the US.

[james francis]

Seems good

[TravisVOX]

Without knowing the details, no way to say for certain.

"If it seems too good to be true...." really does apply with gambling though. Inevitably, past data will have patterns that appear to be meaningful, but are just natural variance.

This is 1000000% true

[rangersipcup2014]

This is 1000000% true

Nice

[a4u2fear]

everyone has their opinion, but starting next season, the plays will be posted and you can comment then. Attached is the results, pretty staggering....

[b_rad_1983]

Love this..

By the way a4... your inbox is full, you need to clear out some messages.

[a4u2fear]

Love this..

By the way a4... your inbox is full, you need to clear out some messages.

Done

[a4u2fear]

this system starts after 300 NHL games have been played, 1/2 way there so far. Will be posting. In post 24 all results are shown. Since my bankroll is not humongous, and to save on juice, I will only be playing the Home Fav ML (+179.5) and Away Dog ML (+238.2).

Whenever I play either one of those, the system above would also play the puck line as well.

See you in a few weeks.

[buddha]

I believe that you are on a path that will lead to positives with these pursuits. Will you be posting anything from the yards per point based NFL system you were working on, over the remainder of this NFL Season?

[a4u2fear]

I believe that you are on a path that will lead to positives with these pursuits. Will you be posting anything from the yards per point based NFL system you were working on, over the remainder of this NFL Season?

Unfortunately no. It may sound silly, but I go back and forth between the NHL and NFL models I'm working on quite regularly and whichever peaks my interest - that one takes over for the time being. I stopped working on that model late last year as my daughter was born and then I had almost no time to work on it as I was being a father. Now that I have a little more time I was more interested in the NHL model (and for good reason, it's results are much more appealing).

[buddha]

Unfortunately no. It may sound silly, but I go back and forth between the NHL and NFL models I'm working on quite regularly and whichever peaks my interest - that one takes over for the time being. I stopped working on that model late last year as my daughter was born and then I had almost no time to work on it as I was being a father. Now that I have a little more time I was more interested in the NHL model (and for good reason, it's results are much more appealing).

I hear ya and understand completely. Nice to hear your priorities are great, she is a blessing and the things she will accomplish in this new world will be mind boggling to you and you'll play a big role in that as her father. Also, nhl (& nba for that matter) just so much more data with which to work, not surprising that results and thus worthyness of time invested would be better than nfl. The best to you and yours.

[a4u2fear]

I hear ya and understand completely. Nice to hear your priorities are great, she is a blessing and the things she will accomplish in this new world will be mind boggling to you and you'll play a big role in that as her father. Also, nhl (& nba for that matter) just so much more data with which to work, not surprising that results and thus worthyness of time invested would be better than nfl. The best to you and yours.

Took a look at the NFL model, ESPN really fukked me. They changed their boxscore format and webaddress for it. There is no pattern and it can't be fixed easily.

[a4u2fear]

This system is not officially started, but running it to make sure the code etc is functional.

Today's plays would be:
PIT -310
CAL -104
WPG +116
ARZ +109
SJ -105

[a4u2fear]

Reason it is not ready yet is I like to see a certain amount of home/road games played and get a gauge of play. In a few weeks, we'll be there.

[a4u2fear]

Plays yesterday were 4-1 +3.16

[Russian Rocket]

great thread...not sure how I've missed it before
will keep an eye on your progress as I think you might be on something good here

best of luck!