1. #71
    a4u2fear
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    yep. would've been nice if Dal pulled it out.

    Teams going well YTD
    6-2 +3.88u

    Hate it when there are so many plays as there was with the totals, but it is what it is. So hard to hit 8 games as we went 3-5.
    Totals YTD
    6-6 -.43u

  2. #72
    a4u2fear
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    Teams:
    PIT -185
    CHI +115

    Totals:
    NYR u5.5 -117
    BUF u5 -101
    NAS under not yet listed
    SJ under not yet listed

  3. #73
    cburland10
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    Teams:
    PIT -185
    CHI +115

    Totals:
    NYR u5.5 -117
    BUF u5 -101
    NAS under not yet listed
    SJ under not yet listed
    You willing to lay the juice on the Pens?

  4. #74
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by cburland10 View Post
    You willing to lay the juice on the Pens?
    Do I like it? No. But, picking games with gut instincts and "looks appeal" over the years hasn't won me money. I am betting every game posted with confidence.

  5. #75
    a4u2fear
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    Nash u5.5 -130
    SJ u5.5 -130

  6. #76
    23Edler_Salo6
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    Teams:
    PIT -185
    CHI +115

    Totals:
    NYR u5.5 -117
    BUF u5 -101
    NAS under not yet listed
    SJ under not yet listed
    teams went 2-0

    totals went 1-3

  7. #77
    TheKLB
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    Quote Originally Posted by 23Edler_Salo6 View Post
    teams went 2-0

    totals went 1-3
    I parlayed both your SU. Also took a little side action on CHI

    Thanks man.

  8. #78
    23Edler_Salo6
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    I'm not OP

  9. #79
    Dollars2Donuts
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    Hopefully it picks up....GL.

  10. #80
    a4u2fear
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    Teams YTD
    8-2 +6.03u

    Totals YTD
    7-9 -2.91u

  11. #81
    a4u2fear
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    one play today
    DET -116

    Good luck.

  12. #82
    Romanov
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    went through the games to find out if I could've gotten here by luck, so I found the avg puck line for my dog puck line bets and my fav puck line bets.

    Avg Fav PL = +177
    Avg Dog PL = -216

    Results, using a binomial calculator, there was a 5% chance I could've just gotten lucky on the Fav PL results, but just a .3% chance I got lucky betting the Dog PL.

    Combined, that is the percentage after betting almost 6000 games.
    you need to use the normal approximation of the binomial for all winning %s = to or > than yours

  13. #83
    a4u2fear
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    Teams YTD
    9-2 +7.03

  14. #84
    SlickRick1382
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    Sides doing real well thusfar, congrats ....

  15. #85
    TheKLB
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    Teams YTD
    9-2 +7.03
    How do things look for tomorrow?

  16. #86
    Jeffie
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    Nice call!

  17. #87
    James Marques
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    Quote Originally Posted by Romanov View Post
    you need to use the normal approximation of the binomial for all winning %s = to or > than yours
    This. Plus 5% is statistically significant.

  18. #88
    bihon
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    Combined, that is the percentage after betting almost 6000 games.

    I see you don't bet every game anymore (ML), despite fitting 20+ games played.
    Have you changed picking criteria?

  19. #89
    bihon
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    Quote Originally Posted by James Marques View Post
    This. Plus 5% is statistically significant.
    If we convert the profit to average odds of 2.0, we come to 54% win ratio after the juice.
    This looks pretty much statistically significant after 6000 bets.

  20. #90
    dalogester
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    Any plays today?

  21. #91
    a4u2fear
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    plays will be posted around 5pm ET during the week, as I work full time.

    TB +101
    COL +103
    ARZ -104

    ARZ u5.5 -140

    Good luck.

  22. #92
    navyblue81
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    I always bet the Lightning. Every game. Made a thread about it a couple weeks ago but it's the only hockey team I bet...and they've made me hundreds so far this year. They never lose at home, and they've been solid on the road. Unfortunately, books are starting to catch on how good they are and tough to bet their ML's now.

  23. #93
    SteveRyan
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    Are you taking these on the ML or PL?

  24. #94
    a4u2fear
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    My plays are ML only

  25. #95
    Aye J Mac
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    THANKYOU bro

  26. #96
    dalogester
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    lets hope the totals pick up!

  27. #97
    a4u2fear
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    Teams YTD
    11-3 +8.03

    Totals YTD (no one prolly tailing these)
    7-10 -4.31u

  28. #98
    chipshipley
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    No but loving the team picks thx man

  29. #99
    dalogester
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    well i am.. because im an action junkie lol. gl today all!

  30. #100
    Slanina
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    Good luck.

  31. #101
    a4u2fear
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    we're off to a good start, so my words of wisdom to any newbie: it's a long season, just because you are up a few bets does not mean increase your betting rapidly. Do so over time, or using kelly criterion. Especially since there are so many plays tonight and a lot of chalk on the team plays.

  32. #102
    a4u2fear
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    Teams:
    PIT -200
    WAS -112
    TB -193
    DET -200
    SJ -185

    Scary card

  33. #103
    a4u2fear
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    PIT o5.5 +136
    NYI o5.5 +100
    WAS o5.5 +122
    CAR u5 +128
    TOR o6 -112
    CAL u5.5 -132
    SJ u5.5 -115
    LA u5 -110

    Again, the totals are not off to a good start and have not been thoroughly investigated as the team plays as shown in the first thread page. I will have more time to investigate them this weekend. Hopefully a positive night on both ends.

    Good luck and don't overbet

  34. #104
    dalogester
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    Looking like an awful night. Of course had to be when we have 13 plays with huge juice.

  35. #105
    chipshipley
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    sweeeet goal with 16 secs left for the sharks who i had parlayed with the under to bail me out for the night. I just couldn't bring myself to lay all that chalk i had to lay off a few.

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