[broadway6]

Who is going to bet it?

[Gameday]

I put $20 on them pre tourney to win it all at 80-1 odds.

I cant decide if I should hedge the $1600 or risk it. If anyone has any bright ideas please let me know what you would do.

[AntGualdieri1]

Hedge it, u can make easy 600 from it if you hedge properly

[Gameday]

How do I hedge it properly? Florida is -300

[AntGualdieri1]

Get a line in game

[irish1]

ON the Gators risking 280 to win 100. Took UK -2 risking 220 to win 200. Just do it, think long think wrong! The longer you wait the bigger the line in the UK game.

[ByeShea]

I put $20 on them pre tourney to win it all at 80-1 odds.

I cant decide if I should hedge the $1600 or risk it. If anyone has any bright ideas please let me know what you would do.

First, congrats for the vision. Must have been an exciting win for you.

Now the tough part - your hedge isn't worth that much with Florida right in front of you and another game after that to realize the $1600. $100? $150 tops?

Were I you, I would let it ride. If Uconn wins you can realize @ 800 without risk.

[ByeShea]

Hedge it, u can make easy 600 from it if you hedge properly

How's that? This isn't the final game.

[TonyTall]

really cant hedge here.........best you can do it wait for an in game chance...........maybe UConn takes a 18-13 lead and you can get UF ml for -150

otherwise you have to let it ride

[homie1975]

I would take the points or not wager it if u like uconn. I am planning to tease fla down

[BIGDAY]

Pass, Florida might curb stomp em...

[pavyracer]

Get a line in game

How do you hedge a semi-final game when you have futures for the tourney winner?

[TonyTall]

How do you hedge a semi-final game when you have futures for the tourney winner?

thats true you also have to worry about winning the final.......only thing you can do it hope UConn leads by 7+ and you can get UF at +100............then if UF comes back to win you get say $300............Kentucky/Wisc would be about -200 for the championship so do the math............

overall this even thought uconn made it to the final 4 its not all roses cause all the remaining teams are very good. id let it ride

[ByeShea]

.......only thing you can do it hope UConn leads by 7+ and you can get UF at +100............

It's just disadvantageous to hedge UConn at this point. The only smart reason I can think of for a UConn hedge would revolve around brackets in big pools ($5g, 20g, 50g+ - they're all out there) that rely on a Uconn win for payout. That would have the leverage to burn a thousand or two.

[broadway6]

ML may hit +300.

[jjgold]

Cannot say Florida losing no way Connecticut is beating them twice

[DaytonFlyer]

Cannot say Florida losing no way Connecticut is beating them twice

Yeah, the last game Florida lost was to UCONN, 31 games ago, I'm laying the lumber on Florida

[Gameday]

First, congrats for the vision. Must have been an exciting win for you.

Now the tough part - your hedge isn't worth that much with Florida right in front of you and another game after that to realize the $1600. $100? $150 tops?

Were I you, I would let it ride. If Uconn wins you can realize @ 800 without risk.

Thanks! This is the advice I'm taking. The guards are going to war it out in this game. Its going to come down to offensive rebounding and keeping Brimah in the game. (if he doesn't get in foul trouble early I think Uconn may have a good chance)\

GO HUSKIES

[t-wizzle]

Looks like dead money to me.

[Cookie Monster]

Many guys do not understand how moneylines work, and reading this thread gives many examples. Most people are used to spreads/totals, where they just have to estimate if his side is more likely to win than the opposite. But moneylines involve estimating the probability of fav/dog, and comparing to the payout. Of course, dog is still more likely to lose, but on the long run they could win enough times to make it a net profit.

Just love the assumptions like "Florida will surely win, but they are too expensive". If they will surely win, no price is expensive. Or viewing it the other way, if price is too expensive, no way they will surely win. The correct way to evaluate a moneyine is with "fair" number, usually from a model.

For example, my model says Florida has 71% of winning. That would amount to -245 fair. No way I am betting on FL -300, I may take UConn ML if they go up enough. Greek has it at +275, it is tempting but I am waiting up to gametime. Not because I think line will go up (it has equal chances to go up or down, contrary to common belief), but because matchbook has tight buy/sell prices at close.

[t-wizzle]

Many guys do not understand how moneylines work, and reading this thread gives many examples. Most people are used to spreads/totals, where they just have to estimate if his side is more likely to win than the opposite. But moneylines involve estimating the probability of fav/dog, and comparing to the payout. Of course, dog is still more likely to lose, but on the long run they could win enough times to make it a net profit.

Just love the assumptions like "Florida will surely win, but they are too expensive". If they will surely win, no price is expensive. Or viewing it the other way, if price is too expensive, no way they will surely win. The correct way to evaluate a moneyine is with "fair" number, usually from a model.

For example, my model says Florida has 71% of winning. That would amount to -245 fair. No way I am betting on FL -300, I may take UConn ML if they go up enough. Greek has it at +275, it is tempting but I am waiting up to gametime. Not because I think line will go up (it has equal chances to go up or down, contrary to common belief), but because matchbook has tight buy/sell prices at close.

That's very analytical and you're not wrong but how do you come up with the 71% number?

[Cookie Monster]

71% is from a model base on power ratings.

[Capper1124]

I like to con to at least keep it close here

[Justin3587]

Every last one of you has forgotten how championships are won in college basketball.

Guard play.

Wilbekin has been the bread and butter for that Florida team. How do you think that is gonna pan out when he has to chase Shabazz Napier all across the floor??

Well, I guess you could switch him and make him check Boatwright. Who is also a helluva good scorer.

What do you do when your point guard is too tired trying to play defense to run the offense?

[Jayvegas420]

My biggest bet of the year is on UCONN & Napier to shock the #1 seed.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10725328

[trevor123698]

I am on uconn moneyline and I expect them to win.

[Thor4140]

I put $20 on them pre tourney to win it all at 80-1 odds.

I cant decide if I should hedge the $1600 or risk it. If anyone has any bright ideas please let me know what you would do.

Hedge it looks like for one of the first times they are gonna be bet instead of their opponent. This means they won't out shoot their opponent 20 to 1 in free throws plus get every game changing call like Larry Brown was getting in his phony run in the NIT.

[Jhart2838]

My biggest bet of the year is on UCONN & Napier to shock the #1 seed.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10725328

The Seth Greenberg vid is hilarious. Picks Floridas Guards over UConn, then goes on to say "Florida can shoot 37% from the Field,32% from 3 and still win a ballgame" Well Seth...UConn just shot 33% from the field, and 22% from 3, and they beat the Favorite to win it all!" Jackass.

[swag1982]

Any body getting +7 or better also anyone know which side the public is on

[las8]

My biggest bet of the year is on UCONN & Napier to shock the #1 seed.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10725328

How many bet points are you throwing down?

[jz3416]

I would bet better tease of Uconn/Und KY and Uconn ml live.

[Jayvegas420]

Line went from 6.5 to 6 in the first 48 hours then back to 6.5 middle of the week.
Take from thaT WHAT YOU WANT.
i MISSED LAST CALL SO IT'S TIME TO LOAD UP ON gATORS BEFORE IT REASCHES 7 AT TIP

[tony_come]

Jay settle and be quiet

Don't need to move nothing

[SteveKerrsJunk]

Florida will lock it down. Donovan vs. Kevin Ollie?
Shabanga. 420

[RMStanley]

Steve Kerr I think you nailed it. Billy had a damn WEEK to prepare and his team is deeper, bigger, and more athletic.