[cutchemist42]

Not sure how up you are for reading, but a few good intro books did wonders for my understanding of the horses.

[James D]

Here is a pretty good read about 2013 and the sport dying, or not


http://theclassical.org/articles/the...t-horse-racing

Very good article ball thank you for the link. There is conflicting evidence regarding racings current state.

JJ is right the day to day racing at the track is a gloomy environment. Part of that is because normal folks like me can go online to tvg or another legal avenue to wager and get track odds. The people that go to the track day in and day out are not usually coming directly from a Mensa conference . Another part is the young sports fans are not gravitating to racing like other sports. Betting horses is very tough compared to team sports, it is literally like comparing chess and checkers.

Lastly and this is just bad luck, is the triple crown failures and lack of a super horse. Let's not forget when smarty jones ran the belmont in 2004 over 120,000 people showed up! That's the biggest crowd ever and belmont opened 109 years ago. When a super horse is around it captures the casual fan and the media so new fans are recruited. We have had a long dry run in that regard and it hurts the long term success of racing. Remember the triple crown was won in 1973, 1977, and 1978, and not since. 1978 was epic with not only a horse winning all three but his biggest competition came in 2nd in all three!! That is like Ali Frazier/ duke North Carolina/ auburn Alabama etc etc only on four legs .

[JakeLc]

the game is dying
big crowds at event days or boutique meets are not a measure of health
foal populations drop year after year and casinos money keeps many tracks open

[James D]

the game is dying
big crowds at event days or boutique meets are not a measure of health
foal populations drop year after year and casinos money keeps many tracks open

Absolutely right that casinos are keeping a handful of these tracks alive and these tracks are actually thriving. Most of these tracks were graveyards before the casino part of the facility was built. Now the tracks have higher purses, better attendance, and better simulcast numbers because horse quality is vastly improved.

To answer your other point event days are in some parts absolutely a measure of not only the health of racing but also the potential of racing, no different then any other sport. Do you know the year before Larry bird and magic Johnson joined the NBA the NBA finals was on TV on tape delay? The games were already over before they were on TV because no one cared. Magic/bird which represented everything, white vs black, small town vs big city, east vs west, changed all of that.

A super horse would make normal days event days. When cigar won his 18 in a row in the late 1990's the first few races were on typical days versus average horses. Then as his streak built the national media covered horse racing like other main stream sports. For two years the streak went on there was constant media attention, where will cigar run next? ( and he went every in the world ) , can anyone beat him ?, will he like the different tracks? , will he set the all time consecutive win record? etc etc This 2 years the media was a constant in horse racing circles because of the super horse. Unfortunately that hasn't been the case since.

Horse racing will never be what it was, there is just to much competition for your sports and gambling dollars, no different then boxing. However some of the reasons for its decline are just bad luck.

[JakeLc]

It's not bad luck, it's a dysfunctional industry with very little foresight.
If you think fields are short now, just wait a few more years.

How many of the racetracks that are "thriving" with casino cash are putting money back into the game to try and grow it as opposed to just taking the money and running?
Eventually the casino money will dry up as the laws will be changed with the prodding of the casino lobbyists to longer subsidize racing.
It's already starting to happen and will only continue to happen more often.

[James D]

It's not bad luck, it's a dysfunctional industry with very little foresight.
If you think fields are short now, just wait a few more years.

How many of the racetracks that are "thriving" with casino cash are putting money back into the game to try and grow it as opposed to just taking the money and running?
Eventually the casino money will dry up as the laws will be changed with the prodding of the casino lobbyists to longer subsidize racing.
It's already starting to happen and will only continue to happen more often.

I did not say it was bad luck I said

Horse racing will never be what it was, there is just too much competition for your sports and gambling dollars, no different then boxing. However some of the reasons for its decline are just bad luck.

That statement is 100% accurate. It was very fortuitous when racing had its three triple crown champs in a six year span in the 1970's. They have not had another triple crown winner since, it's been 36 years.

As as far as taking the money and running and not investing the money in the industry can you blame them? Your point, and it's a valid one, is the industry is dying. Then your other point is the casino people don't want to reinvest the money back into the industry. Well why would they? We both agree horse racing will never be what it once was, you have an even gloomier outlook then I do. With how you feel about the current and future state of the racing industry do you think these business people should reinvest their money back into the industry they are already subsidizing? I know I would not, I would do exactly what they are doing, to use your term "take the money and run" .

You seem like a smart guy and you say the industry lacks foresight. I would like to hear your ideas for the industry to increase horse racings image or popularity. The major race days like Preakness and kentucky derby years after year set attendance records. The current Preakness record was set in I believe in 2012 and derby all time attendance record was set I believe just last year.

Also you say typical race days being much less relevant then in the old days but that is not accurate from a numbers standpoint. Look at keeneland race track, it opened in 1936 and this past racing meet ending in October 2013 they set a record for attendance each day ( average 15600) and for betting handle each day. The amazing thing is this is the fourth consecutive racing season that keeneland has broke its own track record for attendance!!! When you factor in the reality that we can bet from anywhere in the world and we no longer have to go to the race track this stat is nothing less then astounding.

Like I mentioned before I seriously would like to hear some ideas you have on how the industry can improve.

[JakeLc]

Keeneland is a boutique meet.

Pennsylvania racing is in a fight to keep it's casino money. Legislators want to give it to something silly like schools or something like that.
ChurchillDowns Inc has made no secret that they feel the future of their company is not in live racing.
What does that tell you?
They only care about live racing a couple of days a year.
Take a look at what is going on at the Fair Grounds meet.
If Churchill could just dump Calder and keep the casino license they would do so in an instant.
The Cader backstretch is in shambles, they put no money into it.
Again, look at the foal numbers and tell me where this game will be in a few years.

Look at the track aprons of these racinos and tell me how many fans are really there.

A triple crown winner is not going to save racing.

[James D]

Keeneland is a boutique meet.

Pennsylvania racing is in a fight to keep it's casino money. Legislators want to give it to something silly like schools or something like that.
ChurchillDowns Inc has made no secret that they feel the future of their company is not in live racing.
What does that tell you?
They only care about live racing a couple of days a year.
Take a look at what is going on at the Fair Grounds meet.
If Churchill could just dump Calder and keep the casino license they would do so in an instant.
The Cader backstretch is in shambles, they put no money into it.
Again, look at the foal numbers and tell me where this game will be in a few years.

Look at the track aprons of these racinos and tell me how many fans are really there.

A triple crown winner is not going to save racing.

When discussing the health of the horse racing industry I repeatedly reference triple crown races and major racing meets setting both attendance and wagering records years after year and you reference the problems with racing at garbage race tracks like Calder and Pennsylvania? These insignificant tracks are not a strong indicator of racings popularity or viability. If not for simulcasting where these type of tracks cater to degenerate gamblers intentionally on Monday and Tuesday , days the major US tracks are not racing , they would have been bankrupt a long time ago. These little tracks are going to have a hard time surviving because even if I lived next door to one of these dumps I would rather bet from my living room on a 60k race in Kentucky or NY then a 5k race down the street. Not every track is supposed to survive, these tracks produce a horrible product and that is why they suffer. . Just because the NFL left Los Angeles and the NBA left Seattle does not mean those sports are dying, it means the locals did not support the game as well as others would so those teams left for greener pastures . The major tracks giving a quality product are getting handle and generating revenue. The tracks with 5k horses running around in circles taking turns beating each other are not going to survive without subsidies from casinos or elsewhere. To be honest I don't care if those tracks survive at all. They do nothing for racing as a whole.

I still disagree that a super horse would not cause a significant uptick in racings popularity. This is belmont race tracks attendance when a triple crown was on the line for belmont stakes day, averaged out by decade.

1970's 6 races 68924 fans avg
1980's. 3 races. 63612 fans avg
1990s 3 races 78987 fans avg
2000's. 4 races 104970 fans avg

This type of data is much more significant to racings potential long term viability then a typical Thursday afternoon at penn or Calder race tracks. Places 90% of America has never heard of and never will.

Like I said before you do seem like a smart guy I really would like to hear your ideas on how to improve things.

[JakeLc]

A triple corwn winner will of course give the game a quick and temporary bump in tv ratings etc but it is temporary.
Look at the television ratings for the Breeders Cup does America really care about horseracing?

Tracks like Calder and in states like Pa are important for day and and day out racing. You have to give the horsemen and the people in the industry a place to race and earn money.
You need the tracks with the claimers.
Contraction will only lead to short fields within a short period of time.
You will get the horsemen who are barely making it or in it for a hobby leaving the game.
The big barns will survive and will actually enjoy it.
You will have a 7 horse field with 2 of them Asmussen and 3 of them Pletcher...have fun with that.

The foal numbers do not lie.
Again, look at what ChurchillDowns Inc is doing and what they plan to do and that tells you where this is headed.

This game has takeout issues and public perception issues.
Till they want to confront the medication in a serious and effective way it is doomed to failure.

[jjgold]

Men some great posts here
I see some of you guys know this industry inside and out

[James D]

A triple corwn winner will of course give the game a quick and temporary bump in tv ratings etc but it is temporary.
Look at the television ratings for the Breeders Cup does America really care about horseracing?

Tracks like Calder and in states like Pa are important for day and and day out racing. You have to give the horsemen and the people in the industry a place to race and earn money.
You need the tracks with the claimers.
Contraction will only lead to short fields within a short period of time.
You will get the horsemen who are barely making it or in it for a hobby leaving the game.
The big barns will survive and will actually enjoy it.
You will have a 7 horse field with 2 of them Asmussen and 3 of them Pletcher...have fun with that.

The foal numbers do not lie.
Again, look at what ChurchillDowns Inc is doing and what they plan to do and that tells you where this is headed.

This game has takeout issues and public perception issues.
Till they want to confront the medication in a serious and effective way it is doomed to failure.

By the way, you not only are a smart guy, you type like lightning. I agree 100% that takeout is insane and short sighted. Taking 20-25% out of a pool is insane. Medication issues could be worked out but it is not an easy fix. Major races attract horses from all over the world so coordination will be problematic. However medication issues won't adversely affect racing to any great extent. Let's be honest most american sports have medication issues and they are all thriving. It bothers some fans but it's no deal breaker.
I think part of our disagreement is you feel that the little tracks and less then quality product are a vital part of the industry and necessary. I feel some tracks may be unsustainable and if they have to shut down due to a weak product they have to shut down. Those tracks shutting down are not indicative of racings decline as much as they are an indication of Americans not wanting to watch and wager on a poor racing product when they have a far better racing product available to them via simulcast in the comforts of their own homes. I know I reference other sports often but it is relevant. Look at the CBA, it was a basketball league from 1946-2009 that was completely independent of the NBA and basically the minor leagues. Guys that played great in the CBA moved up to the NBA, guys not good enough to make NBA or got cut from NBA played in the CBA. Basketball in America And worldwide is more popular then ever but guess what, the CBA went bankrupt in 2009. Not because Americans don't like and won't support basketball, it's because Americans don't like and won't support mediocre basketball. Why would I watch the Allentown jets vs the Wilkes barre barons ( the two best teams in CBA history) when I can watch the Miami heat vs the OKC thunder? With cable tv and satellites packages things like the CBA are no different then race tracks running slow cheap horses for 5k dollar prize pools? The NBA is at its peak in popularity right now and a mediocre basketball league still couldn't survive . I don't think racing is any different. Just like if Calder or penn race tracks fold many many people lost their jobs when the entire CBA folded. It was a sports league around for 63 years, but the current realities of sports make mediocre product obsolete.

I have a conference call but I am going to research Churchill downs inc like you asked me to later today. If you know of any really great articles i should read post them here or PM them to me. Thanks for the discussion, although we have very different views of the needs of the bottom rung/ of racings economy you are obviously a bright guy who has tons of knowledge about the industry.

Nice talking with you jake

[JakeLc]

Nice talking to you also.

Without the lower level horses and racing you won't be able to fill races.
Having "high quality" racing only is unsustainable and unrealistic.
I keep pointing to foal numbers but they do not lie. They continue to drop year after year.Where are the horses going to come from in a few years? Horses do not race as long as they used to due in part to brittleness but that is a breeding/medication issue.
Frams are closing up shop and people are leaving the game.

Comparing racing to other sports is apples and oranges
Racing is asking me to wager on it and for that integrity should be of the utmost importance.
Public perception is a major reason as to why this game is slowly circling the drain.

[JakeLc]

quickly looked at Breeders Cup tv rating on NBC from last year

it was a .4
TexasTech/OkState - .7
a rerun of Mike and Molly- .7

[mnpickle]

I don't think people go to the minor, small time tracks for the quality racing... They go to hang with friends, guzzle some beer, and lose some money... I don't view them as sporting events. Boutique meets, graded stakes, and triple crown are sporting events and people go to watch quality horses...

I think the ponies get a somewhat distorted obituary. As a horse racing sports fan, I'm as worried about the attendence/popularity at the minor race track as I am with the attendence at a minor league baseball team park.

[mnpickle]

quickly looked at Breeders Cup tv rating on NBC from last year

it was a .4
TexasTech/OkState - .7
a rerun of Mike and Molly- .7

Horse Racing is not a tv sport... Who wants to watch the 25 mins of bs coverage in-between the races? Plus - a weekend in November is more about football then anything else...

[JakeLc]

here are the foal numbers, see a trend?

2000 34,728
2001 34,721
2002 32,984
2003 33,975
2004 34,800
2005 35,046
2006 34,901
2007 34,352
2008 32,310
2009 29,556
2010 25,808
2011 23,150
2012 21,725

[James D]

quickly looked at Breeders Cup tv rating on NBC from last year

it was a .4
TexasTech/OkState - .7
a rerun of Mike and Molly- .7

Television ratings don't bolster your argument Jake they weaken it. Actually BC rating last year was 1.4 not .4 and it was a huge drop of 40% from prior years 2.2 Regardless the breeders cup is not the marquee event of the year for the average horse fan.

Lets look at a few major us sports championships compared to the triple crown races in racing

MLB World Series final game had highest rated game of the world series and series as a whole was 17% up from year before. It also had two storied teams the boston redsox and the St. Louis cards. Viewership for deciding game was highest of series 19.2 million viewers, average was 16.9 million per game.



NHL 2013 Stanley cup set record ratings for NBC with the deciding game six ranking as the third most watched game of all time. Despite the record breaking numbers viewership was only 8.1 million in top rated Stanley cup finals game. Some of the games in the finals had ratings less then half that. Average viewership in NHL final was 5.78 million per game.



Triple crown, the marquee horse racing venues of a calendar year had no dominant horse, no triple crown possibility. despite a weak racing year from a talent stand point the triple crown had a rating average of 10.9 million per race.

Kentucky derby 16.2 million viewers
preakness 9.7 million viewers
belmont. 6.8 million


Major League Baseball average viewership 2013 World Series 16.9 million
Horse racing triple crown 2013 average viewership 10.9 million
NHL 2013 Stanley cup average viewership 5.78 million

Quality championship horse Racing attracted 5 million more viewers then a record breaking NHL Stanley cup finals.



mnpickle,

horse racing draws over 5 million more viewers to its championship events then the NHL, that's pretty good on the TV side

[JakeLc]

I took the ratings from the tvbythenumbers website.
Ratings for the Triple Crown events have been better since they began to focus on personalities, stories etc it's not for the actual racing itself.

[James D]

Nice talking to you also.

Without the lower level horses and racing you won't be able to fill races.
Having "high quality" racing only is unsustainable and unrealistic.
I keep pointing to foal numbers but they do not lie. They continue to drop year after year.Where are the horses going to come from in a few years? Horses do not race as long as they used to due in part to brittleness but that is a breeding/medication issue.
Frams are closing up shop and people are leaving the game.

Comparing racing to other sports is apples and oranges
Racing is asking me to wager on it and for that integrity should be of the utmost importance.
Public perception is a major reason as to why this game is slowly circling the drain.

You keep referencing the lower level racing being a necessity to feed the major tracks and the reduction of foals being born. That is not necessarily a bad thing. For every horse that makes the leap from 5000 dollar horse at sale to winning even a 25k race at a major track there are 500 horses that do not. Many horses sell at sale for literally 2000 or 3000 dollars because there are tracks that run cheap 3k claiming races. I know people will lose their livelihood if these races and the tracks disappear but I do not think for a second it will impact the mid level and top level racing circuits negatively. If anything it may improve the major circuits because a small portion of the trainers and jockeys at those little circuits could make the leap to a more relevant racing circuit.

As far as racing being different then other sports because of wagering so integrity is "of the utmost importance" , that a sport revolves around gambling is a huge benefit and increases its popularity. Does anyone doubt that football hugely benefits from the gambling community that lives and dies for every game. let me put it this way, do you think 90% of sbr readers would be watching the late night Hawaii football game every Saturday if gambling was not ingrained in the fabric of footballs core?

[Mitchell88]

Mitchy you think you can take me??

I am slow but powerful and a wild swinger

Back to horses I bet win mainly

not sure I am a lot younger and def in better shape than you. lol. love you though wouldn't fight you unless your forced this issue bro. lets get this money

[mnpickle]

here are the foal numbers, see a trend?

2000 34,728
2001 34,721
2002 32,984
2003 33,975
2004 34,800
2005 35,046
2006 34,901
2007 34,352
2008 32,310
2009 29,556
2010 25,808
2011 23,150
2012 21,725

They don't call it the 'Sport of Kings' for nothing. It costs a lot of money to be a part of it. Horse racing requires quite a bit of expendable money from both the fans/gamblers and the industry itself. The fact that the drop off occurred in 2009 has me wondering if the economy had a profound effect on the industry. It will be interesting to see whether those numbers change going forward. I mean, horse racing has been 'dying' for years and yet that chart shows a gradual increase in foal numbers through 08?

I don't disagree that the sport is not as popular as it once was, but it is far from dying. It still has a strong presence in Australia, UK, Ireland, and it is quickly growing in Middle East...

[JakeLc]

the number of races continues to shrink
the number of horse farms continues to shrink
the number of foals contnues to shrink
racing in many areas relies upon casino money to survive
as I said before when that casino money disappears, then what?

[James D]

Pickle,

Good point on the economic downturn probably being one of the factors in the timing of the foal decline. I didn't catch it. Also the lower end folks are obviously more likely to be tightening there belts regarding breeding then the big names in racing which as we all know have more money then they could ever spend.

[JakeLc]

I forgot to add the people who actually like this game are dying off

[Mitchell88]

out of all the tracks which one Is the best to play

[mnpickle]

the number of races continues to shrink
the number of horse farms continues to shrink
the number of foals contnues to shrink
racing in many areas relies upon casino money to survive
as I said before when that casino money disappears, then what?

Once again, I think you are looking at it in a very broad sense. The low level tracks and horses that you are concerned about are competing directly with casinos. They are vying for the entertainment dollars. This is not a sporting event.

The fact that the top tier tracks and events continue to grow is something worthwhile.

The foal population decline and the number of farms is more of an economical consequence than anything else. Should we really be worried about it? Fewer and fewer youth are playing football. Is football going to die in 20 years?

[James D]

Jake,

We could go back and forth forever and we all have lives to live. I think we both agree due to the modern breeding models, high take out, increased competition for sports and gaming dollars and a bunch of other reason that racing can never be what it was in its glory years. We just disagree how bad things currently are and what the best course of action would be to improve racings future. We obviously both are big fans of racing and more then likely you like me have been on the business side of racing at some point in Your life.
Let's hope whatever route the industry takes is the right one because it is a great great game.


I will be reading up on Churchill downs tonight when I have more time. Again nice talking to you

[mnpickle]

I forgot to add the people who actually like this game are dying off

This is where I agree with you. Race tracks are having a difficult time attracting The 'younger' population. I think some tracks are actually taking the initiative to attract the younger folks finally. You can see this specifically at Del Mar, where attendance has been strong the past few years, as well as the high profile races due to media power.

[JakeLc]

Football will look different in 20 years but that's another subject.

All of racing is competing for the gaming dollar.
Everything can't be top-tier day in and day out.
This isn't racing put on by Sheiks.
You have to have opportunities to run your horses or you end up leaving the game.

The foal popualtion issue is a very serious one to the future of the game.
How are the races going to be filled a few years down the road?
Where are these horses going to come from?

[JakeLc]

This is where I agree with you. Race tracks are having a difficult time attracting The 'younger' population. I think some tracks are actually taking the initiative to attract the younger folks finally. You can see this specifically at Del Mar, where attendance has been strong the past few years, as well as the high profile races due to media power.

they go for the party atmosphere and selling the racetrack as a day out instead of a gambling experience
so the tracks make what they can from concessions, admission etc

[Mitchell88]

all that you guys posted in this thread are great, awesome convo. I am starting to understand horse racing very well. thanks a million guys . great posts

[JakeLc]

I saw an article in the SF Gate a couple of years ago mentioning that the average age of a TVG viewer was in the mid 50s.
That's one of the reasons you see guys like Kotulak and Seibel gone and they push guys like Gino onto the screen

[JakeLc]

Jake,

We could go back and forth forever and we all have lives to live. I think we both agree due to the modern breeding models, high take out, increased competition for sports and gaming dollars and a bunch of other reason that racing can never be what it was in its glory years. We just disagree how bad things currently are and what the best course of action would be to improve racings future. We obviously both are big fans of racing and more then likely you like me have been on the business side of racing at some point in Your life.
Let's hope whatever route the industry takes is the right one because it is a great great game.


I will be reading up on Churchill downs tonight when I have more time. Again nice talking to you

I have been in various aspects from hotwalker to owner.

I have very little faith that the powers that be will right the ship
This is an industry where everyone is out to grab what they can while they can with little regard to tomorrow.

[Sledge187]

This is a great read!

[BigdaddyQH]

I have been following the ponies for over 50 years out here in California. I remember the first girl I really fell in lust with was the Goose Girl at the now closed Hollywood Park. She would row around the lakes in her little row boat, before they did away with that and pput in an infield for the fans. Hollywood Park is gone now because in part, it was in such a terible neighborhood in Southern California, while Santa Anita, Del Mar, and Los Alamitos are all located in much nicer areas.

One of the major reasons for the lack of spectators at the track is the advent of televisions stations TVG (owned by Betfair, a huge English betting conglomerate) and HRTV (owned in part by churchill Downs). These stations have wagering available in many states, and their wager set up is the eact same as the track that you are wagering on. This is because they are part of the entire "take" for any particular track. They can cover 3-8 tracks at a time, eliminating the long delays in between races.

I like to go to Del Mar once or twice a year. They always have special days on the weekdays, concerts on Fridays, and special events on the weekends. If you are staying or live in the San Diego or North County area, you can get a round trip ticket on the rail system for $11.00 per person, not bad considering that the parking runs $10.00 or more. The food is very good, if not a bit pricy, and the crowd is on the higher end of the racing fan scale.

One of the problemsw with the sport is the number of tracks running on any given day. There can be as many as 30 tracks running on a Saturday. With each track running an average of 9 races a day, you are looking at 270 races. That takes a lot of horses, and leaves little room for breeding. The fact that there are few, if any breaks in between the closing of one track and the opening of another in the same general area also hurts the breeding farms. I personally know of one farm near me that took years to get it's first horse on a major track. That track was Del Mar and this was 5 or 6 years ago. Today, the Warren Farm has horses in just about every state that has racing. Horses named Warren's (fill in the blank) are now common, when just several years ago, they were basically unheard of. Their horses do not necessairily win a lot, but they are needed to fill races.

Many of you guys know what you are talking about. You wager on the ponies for the thrill of it, not to make money. With takeouts ranging from 12% (Sam Houston Raceway) to 25% or more, you are not going to make a fortune unless you hit one of those pick sixes that carried over four or five times in California. Those of you who do not understand why you get such a small return on your winning ticket simply do not understand how paramutual wagering works. You do not understand that you can win more money for a place wager than a win wager on the same horse. My advice to you guys is simply to not wager on the ponies.