[shari91]

Opening Pinny lines:

Rafa -196
Federer +181

O/U 41.5


Odds now:

Rafa -178
Fed +167

After watching Fed tonight, I'm confident that I should stick with my original thought and back Nadal against whomever he played in this one. I'm not too concerned about Nadal's performance against Nishikori or Dimitrov as I think Roger's tendency to lose focus for a bit and shank/spray will compensate for that. There were times in the Murray match that it was just too reminiscent of the Federer of the past couple of years so while I'm very happy to have won cash off him tonight and against Tsonga, I strongly think it's time to jump off now, even factoring in Nadal's blisters. I hate eating chalk like this though so that's the only thing that's stopped me from placing the bet already. Thoughts?

[Chaz22]

One thing is for sure, Federer is playing far more better tennis then last year. Consider how dominant was he over Tsonga and even Murray who barely won one tiebreaker.

This is not Rolland Garros where Federer's form or quality of tennis was irrelevant when he faced Nadal.

These are hard courts, where Nadal's defense won't overplay Federer's offense. Of course it's gonna be tough for both of them, but Nadal will have to battle a stronger and more experienced competitor than Nishikori or Dimitrov.

Yes, Nadal is sort of a nemesis for Fed but think he has already coped with this role, so not a big factor here.

And yes, that blister....it won't help, it wont' help at all.

Im saying this is going to be all Swiss finale.

[Domestic]

As well as Fed has played in his last couple of matches he did not fill me with much confidence towards the end of the Murray match. If Murray was not struggling with his back I think he goes on to win the match.

As much as I would like to see Fed win this one, head says to take Nadal ML. I think I will lay off it though and just enjoy the match.

[freshguy222]

I think you are right shari. Murray played one of the worst matches of recent years at such a big stage.
Rafa says playing during the day hurts his game a lot, especially the high forehand to one-handed backhands, bounces higher during night. That will help him tremendously. He also says he isn't worried too much about the blister thinking it will heal until the semifinal.
A little bit of overreaction here py the public to the blisters, close sets by Rafa and Tsonga and Murray just played badly and were maybe a bit surprised at the new Federer.

[shari91]

Chaz - I think what I'm stuck on is that I never expected Tsonga or Murray to beat Federer and I posted the night of Tsonga/Fed that I wouldn't be surprised if Fed beat Murray in three. I'd been saying before the Tsonga match that he's looked half asleep and/or doped up all tourney and obviously with this being Murray's first big test since his surgery I didn't think he'd be ready to beat one of the big guys yet in a 5 setter so it's hard for me to give a lot of value to these wins. I loved Fed's attitude and his dominance in the Tsonga match but I also saw things tonight that a fully fit Murray would've been able to better capitalize on and the result may have been different. Still though I hate that Nadal price.

[gui_m_p]

Just my two cents but I think Fed is underrated in this line. This game is closer than Nadal 65% - 35% Federer.

[shari91]

Just my two cents but I think Fed is underrated in this line. This game is closer than Nadal 65% - 35% Federer.

Yeah I was honestly expecting something more like -150 *maybe* -160. Looks like the odds on Fed are dropping now so I'm going to wait a bit and see how good of a price I can get on Nadal.

[tipsadontlikehim]

I am very happy with the 1.57 odds Nadal, Big stake

[shari91]

Ok the line's now at -161/$1.62 for Nadal at Pinny so I'm jumping on. I feel comfortable with that.

[Russian Rocket]

Ok the line's now at -161/$1.62 for Nadal at Pinny so I'm jumping on. I feel comfortable with that.

jumped on that line as well...gl!

[jjgold]

Its sure an epic match considering tourney and point i Feds career

Maybe Edberg making a difference with Fed

Only way he can win is charging net and going for lines

[Seto]

I think the over might be the right play here.

Have a hard time imagining Nadal will beat Federer in 3 considering his blisters and overall play the last 2 matches. He will get up for this one for sure but I think he may start slowly or at least have a lapse at some point. Federer has been playing better than last year albeit looks shaky as fukk at times and should compete.

On the other hand, I just don't think Federer has the game to beat Nadal in 3, and then you factor in Nadal's mental edge over him. If he can't even close out a 50% Andy Murray can he close out a 75% Nadal? Federer in 3 seems near impossible to me.

I expect this one to be back and forth, and have a very strong chance to go 5.

Hope it's a great match.

[Tmuston Beltics]

Nadal's hand atm

[shari91]

jumped on that line as well...gl!

GL to you too, Rocket! If it drops a decent size more I'll chuck more cash on but I'm not going to go crazy with this match although I'd made my mind up to take Nadal before the Fed/Murray match was even played. I normally don't bet at this stage in Slams except for fun as the differences between the two players become so small but I really feel I need to stick with what I thought from the start since nothing in the match tonight changed my mind and in fact reinforced my initial thoughts. So now I already have more money on than I usually would in a Slam semi but I feel good about this bet. If Fed wins, I lose cash but I'll be happy for him as a fan so I don't see much downside here.

And Seto, I agree - I think the over could be a great bet. The only thing that worries me is those errors Fed was making tonight and how he lost concentration for awhile. Murray unfortunately couldn't properly take advantage but Nadal sure will and one or two 6-3 sets will hoop us on that total. Still debating. Let me know if you take it!

[Seto]

GL to you too, Rocket! If it drops a decent size more I'll chuck more cash on but I'm not going to go crazy with this match although I'd made my mind up to take Nadal before the Fed/Murray match was even played. I normally don't bet at this stage in Slams except for fun as the differences between the two players become so small but I really feel I need to stick with what I thought from the start since nothing in the match tonight changed my mind and in fact reinforced my initial thoughts. So now I already have more money on than I usually would in a Slam semi but I feel good about this bet. If Fed wins, I lose cash but I'll be happy for him as a fan so I don't see much downside here.

And Seto, I agree - I think the over could be a great bet. The only thing that worries me is those errors Fed was making tonight and how he lost concentration for awhile. Murray unfortunately couldn't properly take advantage but Nadal sure will and one or two 6-3 sets will hoop us on that total. Still debating. Let me know if you take it!

Last year's Murray would've won that match for sure I think.

I agree a quick set or 2 wouldn't be surprising and it doesn't take much - no better example than today's match, 6-3 6-4 6-7 6-3 and over didn't cash. 5 sets at +220 to +250 (which is what I'm seeing atm) may have better value than the over 41.5 -105. Think I'll play both this way I won't regret either

GL!

[shari91]

Last year's Murray would've won that match for sure I think.

I agree a quick set or 2 wouldn't be surprising and it doesn't take much - no better example than today's match, 6-3 6-4 6-7 6-3 and over didn't cash. 5 sets at +220 to +250 (which is what I'm seeing atm) may have better value than the over 41.5 -105. Think I'll play both this way I won't regret either

GL!

Yeah that 5 set bet may be the go for me! I'm not yet entirely convinced it'll even go past three but that could just be my mind playing with me now. No way Fed wins in 3 so I could use it as a bit of protection against my larger Nadal bet. Good thinking!

I'm also on Cibulkova so I'll wait to see how that one goes before putting it in. Good luck to you too!

[thunderous]

-180 at my book. No Thank you! Have to go with Federer in this one at these odds...might hedge a little in live betting if RF takes the first set, pretty sure I will see -110 at some point in this match.

[t-wizzle]

Federer needs this win. Its been a long time since he beat Nadal.

[Lo$t]

You hook em horns with Patrick McIrish, Shari?

[shari91]

-180 at my book. No Thank you! Have to go with Federer in this one at these odds...might hedge a little in live betting if RF takes the first set, pretty sure I will see -110 at some point in this match.

Yeah that's too steep. Exactly why I was hesitating at first. The Aussie books are down around -166 now and they normally have the shittiest odds on the planet but I see 365 still has -188. What a joke. I'm not sure what book you're at but you're getting screwed!

[poet]

In 5 of the last 7 seven sets, Nadal has had to go to a tiebreak. That bodes well for the over as well as a possible upset. I think Fed will play better tiebreaks than Nish and Dimitri but the over is the correct call.

[poet]

BTW, my feeling is, if you like Nadal over Fed then you might as well bet him to win it all at -115 or so. He owns both birdshit and Wawa, and you'll get great odds in those matchups, allowing you to hedge.

[shari91]

Federer needs this win. Its been a long time since he beat Nadal.

We all need a lot of things twizzler. Doesn't mean we're going to get it! I'm still expecting to hear in say 2 weeks time that Tsonga has recently started a new anti depressant or something similar and of course Murray isn't 100%. I'm convinced that a normal Murray would've beaten Fed tonight. I don't doubt Fed's motivation but he's also going to face a guy who missed this tourney last year - his favourite other than the French - due to injury. As much as Fed's motivated now that Djoko and Murray are gone so is Nadal because those are the only two who consistently have a chance of beating him. Whatever the match result is we'll at least know for sure that both guys want this win desperately. I just don't buy that Fed can do it. I'm not trying to change anyone's mind about their own bets however... I just always find that the Tennis Forum gets a bit hectic during Slams with people not even knowing how many sets are played, etc. I'm just trying to steer people to discuss who they're taking and why without all of that lock crap and G.O.A.T nonsense thrown in. GL with whatever you bet on this one!

You hook em horns with Patrick McIrish, Shari?

I struggled for a few minutes to remember who you're referring to. But no I haven't come across him in maybe a year or so now? Hope he's doing well.

[EaglesPhan36]

The tape job for the blister is an obvious detriment to Nadal's game. I don't see how anyone would not recognize this. Rafa has made so many shanks and poor shots that he almost never makes because his feel for the racket is compromised some with the tape. It may in reality not be a huge deal from the physical aspect of his game, but I think it weighs on him mentally some and has shown.

But, he has been able to do enough at big points in matches against Nishikori & Dimitrov to win. I'm not sure how you could be confident backing him given what I've watched those last two matches. Sturdier players with better mental fortitude would have made Rafa pay for the blown chances and the breaks he gave back.

I don't know if this version of Federer is the guy to do it, but any time Roger is in this position - he has to recognize it could be his best, last chance to win one more Slam. I think this is going to be a toss-up in the end because of the variables in place.

[Lo$t]

Yeah Exactly I was down and getting screwed!

[poet]

The tape job for the blister is an obvious detriment to Nadal's game. I don't see how anyone would not recognize this. Rafa has made so many shanks and poor shots that he almost never makes because his feel for the racket is compromised some with the tape. It may in reality not be a huge deal from the physical aspect of his game, but I think it weighs on him mentally some and has shown.

But, he has been able to do enough at big points in matches against Nishikori & Dimitrov to win. I'm not sure how you could be confident backing him given what I've watched those last two matches. Sturdier players with better mental fortitude would have made Rafa pay for the blown chances and the breaks he gave back.

I don't know if this version of Federer is the guy to do it, but any time Roger is in this position - he has to recognize it could be his best, last chance to win one more Slam. I think this is going to be a toss-up in the end because of the variables in place.

Took the words out of my mouth, EP. But what about the over? I think that's a solid bet.

[ProPicker713]

Nadal's hand atm

Hope he doesn't use that hand to wank.

[NolaDrewDats]

I think Stan the Man is a better bet than Nadal.

[shari91]

The tape job for the blister is an obvious detriment to Nadal's game. I don't see how anyone would not recognize this. Rafa has made so many shanks and poor shots that he almost never makes because his feel for the racket is compromised some with the tape. It may in reality not be a huge deal from the physical aspect of his game, but I think it weighs on him mentally some and has shown.

But, he has been able to do enough at big points in matches against Nishikori & Dimitrov to win. I'm not sure how you could be confident backing him given what I've watched those last two matches. Sturdier players with better mental fortitude would have made Rafa pay for the blown chances and the breaks he gave back.

I don't know if this version of Federer is the guy to do it, but any time Roger is in this position - he has to recognize it could be his best, last chance to win one more Slam. I think this is going to be a toss-up in the end because of the variables in place.

I'm confident in that his blisters were worse before the Andy/Fed match than they will be during the Fed match and I had decided at the time that I was taking him against either of these guys. The blisters are healing and he said he doesn't feel the pain while he's playing as long as he's taped. He's even still practicing 100% which I hadn't expected him to be. Yeah his touch is going to be off with that tape on his hands but again, this isn't a massive bet for me and I feel that even a slightly off Rafa will be enough to beat Fed, especially the one I've seen tonight. If Murray had been fully fit coming into this match I'd fully expect to have cashed a winner on him but I think any tennis diehard knows this was going to be too big of an ask, too quickly and so I took Fed. But now he's not going to be facing a guy who couldn't rotate, couldn't arch his back, stayed away from the kick serve, etc. Nadal's hand might reduce him from 100 to 95 but the rest of his body is fine. Again I'm not saying anyone should follow me... that's why I asked for thoughts instead of LOCK OF THE YEAR, FOLLOW ME OR DIEEEEEEEEEEEE, SURE MONEYMAKERRRRRRRR, YOU'VE GOT THE STUPIDZ IF YOU BET FEDDDDDDD.

[shari91]

BTW, my feeling is, if you like Nadal over Fed then you might as well bet him to win it all at -115 or so. He owns both birdshit and Wawa, and you'll get great odds in those matchups, allowing you to hedge.

Sorry poet, I missed this earlier. Do you remember what Nadal's odds to win were pre tourney? I had popped in EP's thread and said I liked him and Serena LOL to win this year but I never bothered to look at the odds. Just curious at the price difference if I decided to jump on that bet now.

[sluggy1616]

I'll be putting some money on Feds.

Nadals key to success is putting immense pressure on the opponents 2nd serve. That happens when he can tourque the forehand that produces that ball that jumps all over you. He can't/hasn't been able to do that with this hand. The hand might improve for the fed match but still won't be 100%.

Last night Nadal played a very smart match. He came to net 38 times(which is more than double) his normal match because he knew he had to keep these points short(and still almost lost to BABY FEDS). Roger will pick Rafa apart if Rafa comes in like he did last match. So that won't be happening.

The hand is the key and at +181 the price is more than right to bet on the hand not being up to the task.

[Brooklyn Dick]

Big difference in price to win the tournament now that Joker is gone. So the opening price is meaningless now.

[shari91]

I'll be putting some money on Feds.

Nadals key to success is putting immense pressure on the opponents 2nd serve. That happens when he can tourque the forehand that produces that ball that jumps all over you. He can't/hasn't been able to do that with this hand. The hand might improve for the fed match but still won't be 100%.

Last night Nadal played a very smart match. He came to net 38 times(which is more than double) his normal match because he knew he had to keep these points short(and still almost lost to BABY FEDS). Roger will pick Rafa apart if Rafa comes in like he did last match. So that won't be happening.

The hand is the key and at +181 the price is more than right to bet on the hand not being up to the task.

I won't wish you GL on your bet obviously but I really appreciate the insight you took the time to give. I don't agree with Fed being able to pick Rafa apart if he comes to the net but I think all of Spain, 95% of Australia and who knows who else throughout the world will be staring at the hand on Friday night like no tomorrow. Hopefully it's a great match.

[shari91]

Big difference in price to win the tournament now that Joker is gone. So the opening price is meaningless now.

haha yeah I realise that, I was just curious. I like to torture myself with "would've's and should've's" quite often. There have been quite a few times that I've posted a future bet I liked that would've been a beauty if I remembered to bet on it and yet I ended up with nothing. And of course just as many that would've been duds. EP had to start reminding me to bet for awhile there because I just normally think from match to match so I never really pay attention unless someone like poet mentions it again.

[tony_come]

Will definitely be a great match

Good luck Shari!