Betting exchanges will have had their days

**tacomax** · 11-30-05, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by acw

Am I alone in thinking this?

Yes.

Seriously, though, if you want a price on a European sport then Betfair will most likely be the best price out there. That's very important to a lot of bettors.

I believe that Ladbrokes are going to try the exchange model which will be the biggest test by far for Betfair. A brand name like Ladbrokes should attract liquidity and, assuming they charge lower commissions than Betfair, I can see a lot of punters jumping ship. Something which never happened with the likes of Betdaq.

**acw** · 11-30-05, 10:23 PM

Originally posted by tacomax

A brand name like Ladbrokes should attract liquidity and, assuming they charge lower commissions than Betfair, I can see a lot of punters jumping ship.

Then I may need to change the titel in: BetFair had its days!
I was considering that.

**SBR_John** · 11-30-05, 10:55 PM

Hmm... I see exchange models popping up and making a dent. Joints like Mansion, Matchbook and BetBug, forgetting granpa BetFair for a second, they are all gathering some momentum.

The real wild card is good ole Pinnacle and the johnny come lately wannabes. They could slow down the P2P exchanges because they offer a less complicated and price equal product.

I prefer a real bookie with a low juice price myself.

**acw** · 12-01-05, 12:22 AM

Originally posted by SBR_John

because they offer a less complicated and price equal product.

Exactly. One example of an exchange I do not even look at myself, because it is too user unfriendly is Mansion, though I have been told that they offer some very good prices.

**bigboydan** · 12-01-05, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by acw

The average Joe has become much more price sensitive and in his shopping efforts

I disagree... the average joe is still going to bet the same way as they did before. just because the info is out there, doesn't mean there gonna chance there ways at all. the average guy doesn't troll these types of forums at all. and, even the ones that do are still not that price savvy.

**pags11** · 12-01-05, 04:23 AM

I look at exchanges much like discount brokerages for the stock market...they will develop a niche of customers for those that enjoy value based handicapping...

**pier0** · 12-01-05, 07:29 AM

I think you guys are missing an obvious point...

Exchanges are a lot more than value betting and while it seems that in the US nobody is interested in trading on the exchanges, the topic is very popular in Europe.

Probably one out of two Betfair's customer will look at trading at some point, either in running or before the start of the events.

I guess that is because in some very liquid markets, you don't even need to understand value to be successful (or try to be successful)...

**LGBoots** · 12-01-05, 07:54 AM

Rumours in the UK that Ladbrokes might buy out Betdaq to launch their exchange.

IMO Exchanges are here to stay & that can only be good for punters. If they cease to exist then Bookies would go back to offering rubbish prices

(At least in the UK they would)

**pier0** · 12-01-05, 08:32 AM

A great victory for the exchange concept was at the beginning of the month when William Hill announced to be switching its hedging activities from on-course to the exchanges, primarily Betdaq.

Few days ago it was followed by Coral which moved to Betfair.

The third of the big three, Ladbrokes, will follow soon...

I've heard about Lad buying out Betdaq myself, but I don't believe it.
Having talked with people close to Dermot Desmond, I don't think the man is going to give up any time soon...

**natrass** · 12-01-05, 09:53 AM

For me, I often check betfair and I remained untempted. After the commission, the lack of parlays and everything else ... they arent that attractive unless you really go for the underdogs, which I generally dont.

So, Ive looked but they dont offer value to me.

**pags11** · 12-01-05, 05:56 PM

made some more plays on matchbook today...

**tacomax** · 12-01-05, 06:22 PM

I had breakfast at 8am comprising of cereal and coffee. A light lunch followed at 1pm with my main evening meal at 6pm. I might have a snack before bedtime.

Anyone else want to make a "what they did today" post?

**natrass** · 12-02-05, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by pags11

made some more plays on matchbook today...

How can you do parlays on an exchange pags?

Do pople have to post up specific parlays?

**pags11** · 12-03-05, 02:42 AM

natrass, I wrote "plays", just straight wagers my friend...

**natrass** · 12-03-05, 03:49 AM

Sorry pags .... I think I half expect spelling mistakes all around ... or my eyes are going!!

**JoshW** · 12-03-05, 10:40 AM

From the professional side am a big fan of constant liquidity in the market (i.e. market makers).

From the gambler side I am not a big fan of "working" to get down. Make offer, wait to see when/if will be filled.

Both ways I am not too fond of unseeded forums. Mansion is find because they are essentially booking in their exchange, but when is just players still very difficult. I think they will have their place and will continue to develope a market, but if Pinnacle keeps reducing juice and offer liquidity will be tough for exchange model to dominate.

I have never played at BetFair, but have watched their markets for several days, so my opinion is not the most informed. JMO

**Bill Dozer** · 12-05-05, 01:24 AM

Americans have a different mentality than the rest of the world. Soccer is a way of life for some countries and they trade prices like the stock market (obvious example is Betfair). I know at least two posters here who make a killing trading horses. In the US we are gambling and our betting is viewed as a roll of the dice versus an investment. Players are expected to lose and usually do.

Cross market trading leaves a ton of room for exchanges and lower vig, even lower than Pinnacle's. Asian bookmakers have enough volume to operate on the thinnest of margins. As technology closes these gaps it's inevitable that exchanges pick up. I think it’s a matter of creating perfect P2P software that the weekend-betting American finds easy. I'd like to see a layout like eBay where the bettor who offers a wager sets a time but can cancel it with a click.

The Mansion and Matchbook format is nice because it allows the books to offer gems all through the day on an individual basis. If the market makers can find a 5 -102 with their guy in Singapore, the players might get a crack at $50,000 worth of the only 5 -104 available to the mainstream. But, if a real p2p shop like Betfair were to open to the US the landscape would change overnight.

**pags11** · 12-05-05, 06:02 PM

no doubt bill...laying less juice makes a big difference at the end of the season...