[nexus13]

How do the Books do it?? It's amazing what they're capable of. During the past week, I have witnessed the Books beating out the Basketball lines with a bucket or that annoying 1/2 point closeouts.

I'm still a rookie when it comes to playing this betting/investing game but I have done very well since I started in the Summer of 2013.

I'm starting to wonder if some of these games are fixed. I'm also starting to wonder if the Books are playing the Parking Lot Payout games with the Refs.

If any seasoned pros have any inputs on this matter, please feel free to do so. I'm really curious about this matter.

Thank You Guys and see you on the winning side.

[captainlou]

Good grief

[Hickeyc31]

If you had been taking the opposite side you would be loving it

[TheProdigy8199]

When games happen like that (winning by the hook or 1 point) then the line makers have done their jobs. "Lines" are essentially set to make the matchup "Even" at the start, there is usually one team who is "better" than the other so the spread essentially evens out the advantage. What "handicappers" are supposed to do is find mistakes (overvalue) or the soft spots (undervalue) in the lines to give themselves a bit of an edge.

A majority of these games are 50-50 at best and picking a side has alot has to do with personal preference. There isnt always value in every single game. Very rarely will you ever see a game that has a 60% or better chance to win. The line makers know what they are doing. Figure out how they think and how they come up with the lines they do and you will have a slight edge. Very rarely do they make complete "Mistakes". Remember that and it will help out in the long run.

As far as there being a conspiracy to "fix" games, this has been something that has been debated multiple times. It seems like it sometimes but good luck ever proving it. Even if there was that chance of games being "fixed" people would still continue to bet on sports. It's just the way it is.

[InTheRed]

It's not so much Vegas as it is the people betting it. You will never get the opportunity to bet the actual line that Vegas comes up with. Before the opening line, the line is usually bet and adjusted by big money players that are given that special opportunity.

By the time you bet, which I'm assuming is near the closing line, the line has been adjusted and fine tuned by the market. Take a look at how many games move in the spread. For example, yesterday's Pats game. NE opened as high as -3.5. By kickoff they ended up as high as +3. That's a 6.5 swing, a full TD worth. Vegas didn't set a great line at all, but the market adjusted it.


For anyone that looked at just the closing line of the game has that reaction of "wow, they got within a pt of spread." But when you look at the opening line they were way off.


There's a lot of books and theories for probability and whatnot that can explain this further. But basically, Vegas is not much different than us in capping the game (yes they probably have server rooms filled with databases that give them everything little detail.) But in the end, the betters are who get so close to the line. And Vegas capitalizes on the vig for the most part.



Wisdom of the crowd. Take a look there.

[indio]

How do they do what? For every game that lands right on the number, there are many more games that are nowhere near it. Play enough games, its simple math that some are going to land close to the number sometimes. And with variance, sometimes its going to happen lot, and other times, hardly at all. I can put out an over/under on the total of 3 rolls of the dice at 21, which would be perfect. And if you roll 3 dice plenty of times, you'll roll some 21's, 20's and 22's, and you'll roll some 9's and 27's and some 13's and even a 32 or a 5 once in a while.

I can put out my own NFL lines before any are offered, and 90% of them will be within 2pts of what the books put out. That doesn't mean I'm really good, just means the information on NFL games is so known, that it doesn't take a genius to figure out a market price on them. NBA is the same way. College hoops takes a bit more savy and a lot more work and knowledge with all the teams playing out of conference, but after they get into their conference schedules, that becomes a bit easier.

[InTheRed]

I can put out an over/under on the total of 3 rolls of the dice at 21, which would be perfect. And if you roll 3 dice plenty of times, you'll roll some 21's, 20's and 22's, and you'll roll some 9's and 27's and some 13's and even a 32 or a 5 once in a while.

How do you get these numbers? I assume you mean 3 rolls of 2 dice since 21 is unattainable with 3 single die rolls. But then you throw out that you can roll a 5, which is unattainable with 3 rolls of 2 dice.

And its also a bad example since rolling dice has no skill or control. It is solely based on chance. Rolling them 10 times and getting 1s on all of them doesn't change anything with the 11th roll. Whereas spreads and totals are based on various factors that change; i.e. pace of both teams, weather, injuries, etc. The 1st ranked defense playing the 30th ranked offense will result is a lower scored game than both of the teams previous game.

But your first point is correct. Books miss a lot of times, by a lot of points. With that said, the closing line is usually very close to the general perception of the game, at least in a money sense.

[indio]

How do you get these numbers? I assume you mean 3 rolls of 2 dice since 21 is unattainable with 3 single die rolls. But then you throw out that you can roll a 5, which is unattainable with 3 rolls of 2 dice.

And its also a bad example since rolling dice has no skill or control. It is solely based on chance. Rolling them 10 times and getting 1s on all of them doesn't change anything with the 11th roll. Whereas spreads and totals are based on various factors that change; i.e. pace of both teams, weather, injuries, etc. The 1st ranked defense playing the 30th ranked offense will result is a lower scored game than both of the teams previous game.

But your first point is correct. Books miss a lot of times, by a lot of points. With that said, the closing line is usually very close to the general perception of the game, at least in a money sense.

The 5 should have been a 15 (typo), since yes, 5 is impossible to roll with 3 rolls of 2 dice. I completely disagree with your assessment. In my opinion, the dice roll analogy is perfect for the point I was making. The whole premise by the original poster is wondering how books get the line so close to the end result of game. The bookmakers spread line is trying to estimate the proper market price of a contest between 2 teams that make the wagering proposition a 50/50 chance. They do a good job of this, but obviously, they wont be correct all the time. The dice roll odds were perfect, and will be correct every time, and yet still will produce many results far away from the proper line. Your assertion made no sense, because it is precisely those handicapping factors you mention that contribute to what lines the books put on a game trying to make them a 50/50 proposition, otherwise every line on every game would be the same. What I am saying, is that even if books get the spread and/or total correct every time, sheer variance will produce some days that they are real close to the final game score, and other days that they are way off. Hence, even if bookmakers get the line perfect (ala a dice roll line), the final score is subject to variance just like anything else. The original poster thought perhaps books had inside information or clairvoyant abilities, when in fact, the final result of games will produce a wide range of results, sometimes right on the spread numbers in bunches (which is why the OP started this) and sometimes way off in bunches.

[byronbb]

They get +110 on sides brah.

[raydog]

It's not so much Vegas as it is the people betting it. You will never get the opportunity to bet the actual line that Vegas comes up with. Before the opening line, the line is usually bet and adjusted by big money players that are given that special opportunity.

uh what

[Miz]

They get +110 on sides brah.

this. and they keep limits low until the line is hammered into shape by multiple groups of skilled players

[lunch]

They set up a good website, offer attractive bonuses, and take juice.

If anything goes wrong they just take your money and run, it's a simple practice used by many different bizness' around the world.

they may have leans on games, but they know their players will bury themselves eventually.

[ksnooksk]

It's all a hustle. Biggest fallacy in sports betting is that sides are just trying to split the action 50/50. Books are looking to bury people. Sharps included.

[raydog]

...

[theclutch7]

computer lines say a team has to play 100% effective with no fouls, penalties, no injuries, or bad calls! giveaways takeaways ect..
remember the Psyche factor! A SD QB, lost his daughter days before he played, and won the game for her!. If the teams are looking up at the scoreboard, don't bet them again!

[InTheRed]

They set up a good website, offer attractive bonuses, and take juice.

If anything goes wrong they just take your money and run, it's a simple practice used by many different bizness' around the world.

they may have leans on games, but they know their players will bury themselves eventually.

And what about Vegas? How do they make their money?

It's all a hustle. Biggest fallacy in sports betting is that sides are just trying to split the action 50/50. Books are looking to bury people. Sharps included.

So the books want to bury people and sharps. But the public and sharps are usually on different sides....
The public makes a lot of tiny bets, sharps bet big. And the action is split 50/50.

Sure there are times that if a game falls on a very small range the book will bury both, but I don't really thing they try to do that. They'd much rather keep the money as close to equal as possible so that they win on the vig. Over time that pays much better than trying to bury everyone.


There are times where the books feel so strongly on a side that they are willing to expose themselves a little bit, but over the long run they're just looking at winning the vig. The vig on a 6 million MNF game is enough to keep them happy for a week.

[raydog]

books want more -ev money bet... thats it ... 50//50 is long outdated clueless amateur talk

[T4TRUTH]

a line is a number,point spread made is to entice someone to bet or take a particular side. the foundations of bookie is book making which some will argue is outdated however the game is the same. a team like NE opens minus 3.5 someone mentioned. so all the public believe the underdog can maybe even win or only loose by 1 so they bet the plus 3.5 as they continue to bet the bookm says lets balance the side and offer NE again alittle cheaper. minus 2 but money continues to flood on the dog because some people are not handicapping but chasing the move running with the bulls. so it can go to pk em.... now what do you do well some will say, great time to buy the original fav cheap and some will say better take the original dog before they go minus points. in the book making is being successful in making a book on the game.... it is same as beginning of time, your decision is like any market at what time to I buy at what time do I believe the price is cheap or reasonable enough to play.... if a flood comes back on the fav you probably will kick youself if the fav goes back to minus 3.5 or higher... so like the stock market when do you buy?????? now there are many many handicapping angles to consider on the game also who is injured m who is on the road, what are individual stats what are team stats...it is a full time job if you want to make money... other than that... got a hunch bet a bunch..........