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Regional lean: San Diego +11.5 Thursday night
San Diego is a team I've grown up watching, and also routinely faded ATS, I rarely bet the Chargers because of my emotional attachment to them, and their ridiculous ability to never cover when expected- HOWEVER:
The Chargers have been a live road dog, especially within the division. They also have been playing better on defense despite their early struggles, furthermore this team is showing more life under new head coach McCoy, I think the players are buying into the new system, especially Phillip Rivers, his season stats speak to that affirmation.
Stats are relatively similar on offense in the sense of numbers, of course Denver scores more per clip - but the Chargers have a good 3rd down conversion % and have been running the ball well i.e. time of possession.
Another thing to note is the Chargers have their initial starters on the offensive-line back on the field, and the cohesion was apparent against NY, Ryan Matthews has rushed well, even against one of the AFC's best defenses in Cincinnati, he's avg'ing 4.4 yds per carry on the year - and Danny Woodhead has also been a nice complement out of the backfield, he's essentially a white Darren Sproles (I wish the Chargers never got rid of that talent).
I also like how some of the WR's now matchup for San Diego with Eddy Royal back, this will give WR Vincent Brown some more leeway as he'll be covered by the Broncos 3rd cornerback in nickel packages, and I think he's due for a bigger game, he's steadily improved this year - as he was recovering from that broken ankle- prior to that he was showing chemistry and promise with Rivers. I think this will account for at least more open WRs in the Chargers offensive scheme.
- Denver's Defense allows a similar QB rating as it pertains to passer rating, with the only caveat being they force more turnovers. San Diego's defense gives up more yards per play (6 yards in some instances) so that will be an area of concern.
- Denver is playing for home-field advantage and San Diego is clinging to their small playoff hopes, however while the season has matured historically covering these DD spreads in divisional games are less likely to hit.
- Ultimately I feel like this game will (ironically) come down to a few key defensive plays because I see both offenses scoring. And as great as Peyton Manning has been, Phillip Rivers has had a great record in December ~81% winning pct, I still expect Rivers to cover this spread, the Chargers should play their hearts out this game.
- Clearly the Chargers need to have a complete game and if they don't they will get blown out, with that said the Chargers have had trouble putting back-to-back wins together this season, but I think this short week will help that focus which has been missing consistently.
- Personally I have this game graded closer to 8.5-9 so there is some value in this line IMO.
- Eric Weddle will have at least 2 tackles tonight with his beard.
For those that don't like to read: Chargers spread +11.5 and sprinkle a little on the MLin my opinion.
Tail or Fade accordingly, GL with your bets.
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Originally Posted by Rspro
, thanks man.
