1. #1
    C-Gold
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    C-Gold week 11 picks/discussion, 3-2 last week

    Week 10 plays
    Eagles -1 WIN
    Denver -7 WIN
    Dallas +7 Loss
    Tampa +2.5 WIN
    Atlanta Loss
    3-2 ATS

    My best bet last week was Tampa and it won. My sucker bet was Atlanta and lost - turns out Seattle really was a gift, it happens sometimes. I liked small road favorites but couldn't decide who to play, Philly was my best bet so I took them, I liked Detroit but layed off, and I liked Cincy but layed off because I thought a weaker Baltimore would be motivated and might win - they did. Dallas was an overall bad pick. 49ers/Carolina was low scoring like I said. Overall I feel like I had a good pulse on the market.

    Thursday night football
    Colts -3 @ Titans

    After beating Seattle, Denver, @ San Francisco the Colts have people's attention this year. People think the Colts are very good, and then they go out and get smashed against the Rams. People are thinking the strong Colts team bounces back at this point. I don't watch a lot of Titans football, but they just lost to the Jags, how is that even possible? Of course the Colts will beat this team that just lost to the Jags, or will they?

    Already I see a huge percentage of betters on the Colts. This game is "too easy" but is it? To me this game is Titans or no play, no play for me. So the Titans winning is completely unimaginable, but let's look at some of the facts.

    - Colts are on a short week, which is always tough.
    - Colts have a rookie QB, ok 2nd year QB on a short week, which is even tougher.
    - Colts are a dome team, playing outside on grass
    - This is a divisional game - Game in Nashville went to OT last year.
    - I was never a big Locker fan, I don't think they are "losing much" going to their backup Fitzpatrick. Fitz is a seasoned vet, and a very smart guy.
    - Nationalized TV game for a Titans team going nowhere this year, the game means more to them.

    If the Colts could get blow out at home to Kellen Clemens, they could lose on the road to Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Colts offense hasn't been the same without Reggie Wayne. This Whalen guy sucks. TY Hilton is the only dependable receiver and he seems to be a deeper threat compared to a move the chains guy. Trent Richardson has been a failure. Think about it, this Colts team was a 1-15 team 2 years ago.

    Play the Titans +3 or nothing.

  2. #2
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    Jets @ Buffalo

    Jets are better than the Bills but the Jets are unpredictable Last 3 weeks, Beat the Patriots, get murdered by Cincinnati, beat New Orleans? Geno is still an ignorant turnover machine that is 1-3 on the road and has more turnovers than TD. The Jets are a defensive team that tries to run the ball and they have an ignorant turnover machine at QB.

    I like the Bills front 7, I like their team speed, I don't like EJ Manuel. EJ has a 56% completion percentage, 6 TD 4 INT 76 QB rating, which doesn't sound that bad but considering they are only asking him to do elementary things, dump offs, short passes, max protection, it is not very good.

    Not sure about this game. Jets want to ground and pound but the Bills have a strong front 7, that forces Geno to pass and he sucks at passing. Bills are going up against a good Jets defense.

    Not sure what I am thinking but probably a no play.

  3. #3
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    Atlanta @ Tampa

    Falcons have lost 6 out of 7 games
    Falcons have lost 3 in a row by 14+ points
    Falcons have no pass rush
    Falcons have no run game
    Falcons pass game is nothing compared to last year's Falcons without Julio and Roddy.
    Tampa is coming off of a short week
    Tampa is coming off of their first win
    Tampa is getting better QB play from Mike Glennan over Josh Freeman

    Matt Ryan was never as good on the road. I'd consider playing Tampa here but do you really want to bet on a 1-7 team two weeks in a row?

  4. #4
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    Detroit @ Pittsburgh

    Pitt has actually won their last 2 home games.
    Detroit has won 3 out of 4 of their last 4 road games.
    Detroit has D-Lineman and Pitt's O-Line has been a mess this year
    L. Bell has added something for Pitt's run game.
    Out of division opponents, these teams don't know a lot about each other.

    I would lean Detroit, I like their D-Line to feast against Pitt's O-line but are they really going to win back to back on the road? Lots of Public money on Detroit, Pitt still has a top 5-10 QB in Big Ben that gives them a chance. I could see the argument to play Pitt.

  5. #5
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    Washington @ Phila

    Eagles are 0-4 at home, but 5-1 on the road. What does that say about their fan base? The team wins playing on the road, but something happens in front of their vile fans, the worst in all of pro sports. Listen to Phila sports talk radio for an hour and you will see why the Eagles can't play in front of their fans. Call it stage fright. The Eagles get their first home win this week, week 11, how pathetic is that? The potential NFC East champs winning their first home game in week 11?

    Nick Foles has started 4 games. 3 of them were pretty good, including an NFL tying 7 passing TDs on the road, and he had one bad game. The bad game was his second game and Jewson Lacanfora and our media say " well, this proves he sucks". How come when a young passing QB has a bad game or a bad season he "sucks", yet when a black running QB sucks it's not his fault? It is his line's fault, his receivers fault, his coaches fault, his OC's fault. I just hope people see that double standard.

    RG3 is overrated. They ran an offense the NFL hasn't seen last year, they caught people by surprise, and they asked him to do very basic things in the passing game. This year the run game has been stopped and the Redskins have asked him to do more moderate things in the passing game and he has regressed. He is not a very good passer, the stats last year were a mirage. Now the play calling is being blamed. So they are running more play action on 1st down to trick the defense, which has worked, and got guys open but RG3 has been missing throws and they blame the coach? RG3 is a diva who likes to talk. People are starting to realize this, he is a talker. He has alright slighted both his head coach and OC multiple times.

    Both defenses suck but the Redskins defense is a mess. There is no way that London Fletcher or Reid Doughty should be playing at this point. Old and slow against McCoy, Desean and a fast paced offense. These teams already played in Washington and the Redskins got embarassed. That was with Vick and his pick 6. Foles has outplayed Vick this year big time and the Eagles will win.

    Nick Foles 63% completion, 16 TD, 0 INT, 132.5 QB rating.
    Michael Pick 53.6% completion, 5TD, 3 INT, 86.5 QB rating but lots of fumbles.

    The Eagles have too much speed on offense for the Redskins. Phila will win, I very much like the ML, I still think they cover, I am playing the Eagles this week I just want to figure out how. This team won 2 in a row on the road and they will beat the Deadskins on Sunday to claim 1st place.

  6. #6
    C-Gold
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    Baltimore @ Chicago

    The Ravens offense and play calling isn't good. Look at how many points they put up the past 6 weeks, 20, 18, 16, 17, 26 and 20. They are 2-4 over those games. It is not good enough to get it done. I still think their D is pretty good, especially at home, but they have a weak offense. The loss of the Boldin, the TEs and the run game hasn't been the same. Cam Cameron got fired last year but his offense was actually better.

    Chicago is sticking with the hot hand Josh McCown here. I think it is the right move and I said that starting an injured Cutler with a short week wasn't a good idea last week and that's one of the reasons why I leaned Detroit. Josh McCown has put up 27 in a full start and 41 in relief.

    I would tend to lean Chicago here, I think the 3 point spread is fair. Baltimore is also 1-4 on the road and has trouble scoring points, they will have problems running. I'd lean Bears here.

  7. #7
    C-Gold
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    Cleveland at Cincinnati

    Does the battle of Ohio really matter?

    Bengals lost 2 games in a row, both on the road, both OT games. Cincinnati is clearly the better team here and they are back at home. Bengals are actually 4-0 at home. I feel like the defense is better at home and Dalton has road struggles. Bengals are going to win this game, the question is do you want to lay the 5.5 which will go up to 6.

    Jason Campbell sucks, don't let 1 game fool you. The problem is the Bengals blew out the Jets a few weeks ago, but all their other games they barely won. I attribute this to poor coaching by Marvin Lewis. His team should be putting teams away but his tactical errors are hurting them.

  8. #8
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    Oakland @ Houston

    Last week I basically said that Case Kennum won't be as good as he was on MNF, he wasn't, and I said that the Texans were the best 2-6 team I can remember. Well now they are the best 2-7 team I can remember. They have the same record as the Vikings. If the draft was today they'd have the 3rd or 4th pick, but are they really that bad? They lost close game after close game, shooting themselves in the foot sometimes.

    I think the Texans win, but do you want to lay all those points? Terrell Pryor is hurt and I'd tend to think the Texans win and cover, especially if Pryor can't play.

  9. #9
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    Arizona @ Jags

    Before last week's win, the Jags had lost 8 games in a row by 10 or more points. They had lost 6 in a row by 14+.

    Cards have a legit D, I think I'd lay the points if I had to. Jags are 2-7 ATS and they are used to losing and getting blow out.

  10. #10
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    San Diego @ Miami

    The entire left side of Miami's line is in turmoil. The team has a lot of distractions, how focused can they really be right now? They just lost to a winless team.

    Huge percentage of bets on San Diego, and it is a west coast team traveling east, but they do play at 4. Philip Rivers is a leader and I think I'd have to go with the public here. SD has been good on offense and they haven't been committing turnovers. Miami's D should be better at home but I think SD is overall better.

    Miami's line sucked even at full strength, 2 new guys to the left side and they have sucked.

    I think I'd stick with the public here and back SD.

  11. #11
    C-Gold
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    Minnesota @ Seattle

    Minnesota sucks, coach sucks, QB sucks, lost 7 out of 9 games. Ruining possibly the best RB ever.

    Seattle is 1-3 ATS against spreads greater than 7 points. This crappy Minnesota team reminds me of the winless Tampa team that took Seattle to overtime. Just keep it simple on offense, run the ball with AD against the Hawks who specialize in pass D. Keep it very simple on offense, hit Carlson with passes against LBs to occasionally mix it up.

    I'd tend to take the Vikings and the points here. Vikings profile is more similar to Tampa and we know how that turned out.

  12. #12
    C-Gold
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    SF @ New Orleans

    Spread is only 3? I like the 49ers here. They will at worst be a live dog but I think they will probably eek out a win. This will be a great game to watch and I like having action on games I watch. No reason to force it, and bet on TV games with no edge, I like the niners here. Here is why.

    - Saints lost to an inferior Jets team a few weeks back, the 49ers are a better version of the Jets.
    - Saints won a big TV game last week, 49ers lost a big TV game last week.
    - Before last week, the 49ers won 5 games in a row, margins of victory were 32, 14, 12, 31, 24.
    - Before last week, the 49ers have scored 30+ for 5 weeks in a row
    - 49ers are giving up only 211 passing yards per game, opposing QB's have a rating of 71.2 AND they have Aldon Smith back.
    - 49ers could have additional motivation, this is where they lost the SB last year.

    I like the 49ers here to win as a dog, Don't let those 9 points last week fool you, they scored 30+ for 5 weeks in a row and they have a much better defense than the Saints. This is the big 4 PM game, most people are taking the Saints, if anything the 49ers will get the good calls. I obviously like SF here.

  13. #13
    C-Gold
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    GB @ Giants

    Giants aren't losing to the Packers backup QB, either one who starts. SEN NICGA Wallace is 2-16 as a starter. It is shameful that he is still in this league and Tim Tebow never got a chance. It is shameful that he got to start a game while Matt Flynn was sitting at home pretending to be Matt Damon.

    Giants have still played very sloppy. They are not a good team but they lucked out with injuries due to playing GB now. This team still turns it over way to much but they won't lose this game but I am not sure if they cover.

    Giants defense also is not as good as advertised. The only reason the Giants defensive statistics look decent is because they played Josh Freeman after being with the Vikings for 14 days and mostly average to below average QB's.

    I wouldn't mind a Giants ML bet but I would consider the spread here.

  14. #14
    C-Gold
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    KC @ Denver

    Chiefs get their first loss. The book makers are playing a trick on you. Most bets on KC?

    If the line was Denver -3, 97% of bets would be on the Broncos save for a few contrariness.
    If the Broncos were -5, they would still get 70% of bets.
    If the Broncos were -7 they would still be getting 60% of bets
    I think the point where people start liking the Chiefs would be 7.5

    but when the line is 9.5 is just looks comical and the Chiefs are getting a good pct of bets.

    Denver is going to win and I'd guess they cover. The total is 49.5. The Chiefs have no chance to recover once they start losing by 10-14 points. Alex Smith isn't a passer and now he will be without his pothead receiver Dwayne Bowe.

    Denver will win and cover. This game reminds me of Denver vs the Ravens, the 1st game of the year. Won't be as many points but same concept. Peyton carves them up and Flacco, or in this case Alex Smith won't be able to keep up. Don't bring a knife to a gun fight.

    Denver is the play.

  15. #15
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    New England @ Carolina

    I am glad Carolina won @ SF last week and people are talking about them. I hope the media hypes the Panthers up to the max. Bellicheck and Brady will beat them. Carolina is poorly coached. Yes they have a good front 7 and D-Line but Brady gets rid of the ball quickly. The media keeps saying Carolina has a good defense, they have a very good front 7, their secondary isn't that good but they have been masked, the media also says "and look at Cam Newton playing well". No he is not. He is making so many mistakes to the untrained eye.

    The match up this most reminds me of is New England @ Cincy which they lost but they left tons of plays on the field and now they have Gronk back and the receivers are learning and improving.

    There is a chance Carolina has an official coming out party this week, this game is not 100% but I do like New England here and will be making a play.

  16. #16
    C-Gold
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    So what am I looking at this week? Here are the Cliff Notes

    Philadelphia Eagles maybe ATS but I like the ML
    San Francisco +3, maybe even the dog ML.
    Giants are going to win, do I take the heavy ML or lay points?
    New England should win, take the points or maybe even the dog ML

    Maybe Cincinnati or Chicago to get me to an odd number of games?

  17. #17
    C-Gold
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    I forgot to add Denver to the list also.

  18. #18
    C-Gold
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    Week 11 plays
    Phila -3.5
    Giants -4
    San Fran +3.5
    Denver -7.5
    New England +3
    Tease - Denver & New England

  19. #19
    C-Gold
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    They didn't double this thread up into the NFL section also?

  20. #20
    C-Gold
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    My card is already full, otherwise I'd consider the Bears and San Diego also.

  21. #21
    C-Gold
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    RG3 is playing like Rg3 today which is pretty f-ing shitty.

    Riley Cooper is abusing his man. I'll bet that sucks extra for David Amerson.

  22. #22
    C-Gold
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    Man, I wish I played more games!

  23. #23
    jjgold
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    early yet

    I see good things here

  24. #24
    C-Gold
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    3-0 so far

  25. #25
    firedawg
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    3-1 after Denver .. Nice day

  26. #26
    C-Gold
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    Looking to go 6-0 tonight.

  27. #27
    C-Gold
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    Quote Originally Posted by C-Gold View Post
    Week 11 plays
    Phila -3.5
    Giants -4
    San Fran +3.5
    Denver -7.5
    New England +3
    Tease - Denver & New England
    4-0 with Pats ATS and Pats tease.

  28. #28
    C-Gold
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    Quote Originally Posted by C-Gold View Post
    Week 11 plays
    Phila -3.5 ------------------ WIN
    Giants -4--------------------WIN
    San Fran +3.5 0--------------WIN
    Denver -7.5------------------WIN
    New England +3 0=-----------LOSS
    Tease - Denver & New England---WIN
    5-1

  29. #29
    C-Gold
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    Is it even worth it to break down the games and post winners? Nobody gives a shit.

  30. #30
    erceg
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    It is worth it

    i have been reading your write ups last few weeks... great read... Keep up the great work!

    congrats for the 5-1 last week!

  31. #31
    firekillex
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    what are ya feeling this weekend c-gold?

  32. #32
    Fabiodog
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    I use your info

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