1. #1
    Big Bear
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    Public got absolutely burried tonight

    Redskins. Heat and Ducks buried a bunch of people.

    This is why you fade the public on national tv games.

    Does the raping continue or do squares finally hit a couple plays this weekend?

  2. #2
    easyliving
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    why are the heat on the list? They came back from being down at half and won

  3. #3
    Smoke
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    Replace the word "public" with "forum"

  4. #4
    gauchojake
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  5. #5
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by easyliving View Post
    why are the heat on the list? They came back from being down at half and won
    they were -6. They won by 5.

  6. #6
    BriGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    This is why you fade the public on national tv games.
    Fading the public on national TV games has not been a winning formula this year. Certainly worked tonight, but has not turned a long term profit over the past 3 months.

  7. #7
    sneakerhead
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    Public got raped today. A lot of folks were on Oklahoma too

  8. #8
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    Replace the word "public" with "forum"
    nah we have some sharp posters here.


    you mad bro gave us a winner with Stanford ML and +10.5

    brock landers gave us Baylor -17

    2dabank was on the Vikings

    Lakerboy gave us Clippers +6

  9. #9
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    nah we have some sharp posters here.


    you mad bro gave us a winner with Stanford ML and +10.5

    brock landers gave us Baylor -17

    2dabank was on the Vikings

    Lakerboy gave us Clippers +6
    They are the public

    You are the public

    BB you are better than this

  10. #10
    easyliving
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    they were -6. They won by 5.
    no one lays points with favs in NBA anymore. If they like a team they just take the ML

  11. #11
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by easyliving View Post
    no one lays points with favs in NBA anymore. If they like a team they just take the ML
    public is now 0-4 on TNT thursdays ATS

  12. #12
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    They are the public

    You are the public

    BB you are better than this
    public means majority..

    95% of bets were on the road favorites Oregon and Washington tonight

  13. #13
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    forum is now 0-4 on TNT thursdays ATS
    Fixed it for you

  14. #14
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    public means majority..

    95% of bets were on the road favorites Oregon and Washington tonight
    Wrong

  15. #15
    dirtycash66
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    nba favs ML lol. You will lose in the long run. That shit might work in the nfl not in the nba.

  16. #16
    I/O
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Redskins. Heat and Ducks buried a bunch of people.

    This is why you fade the public on national tv games.

    Does the raping continue or do squares finally hit a couple plays this weekend?

  17. #17
    lakerboy
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    did anyone take rockets ml tonight?
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  18. #18
    jjgold
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    Yeah where all the opposites won tonight

    We were due for a night like this

    Squares have been holding their own

  19. #19
    davidcsmith
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    I'm new here. I'm guessing squares is the public.

  20. #20
    blankoblanco
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    This is why you fade the public on national tv games.
    How can you be a sports bettor in 2013 and still think like this?

    You're literally saying you could just blindly bet 5k against the public side on every national tv game and print money for the rest of your life. Don't we all wish? The market is sharp and not in the business of giving out money. You have to out-handicap their lines, plain and simple

    Quick lesson: Public hits close to 50% of the time, they lose mainly bc of the juice. Auto-fading public hits close to 50% of the time, loses bc of the juice. I hope this was educational

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  21. #21
    Nick Papageorgio
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    I got buried Redskins -833. Making more crazy faces then Jim Carey on crack.

  22. #22
    SBR_John
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  23. #23
    Nick Papageorgio
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    Can anyone confirm seeing around -833? Around 3rd Q when Skins were up 10 Vikings ball. I almost feel like i got a bad like -833 is steep, I was fuked up.

  24. #24
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by blankoblanco View Post
    How can you be a sports bettor in 2013 and still think like this?

    You're literally saying you could just blindly bet 5k against the public side on every national tv game and print money for the rest of your life. Don't we all wish? The market is sharp and not in the business of giving out money. You have to out-handicap their lines, plain and simple

    Quick lesson: Public hits close to 50% of the time, they lose mainly bc of the juice. Auto-fading public hits close to 50% of the time, loses bc of the juice. I hope this was educational
    no not really. i wouldnt blindly bet anything. Still gotta pick your spots

  25. #25
    sneakerhead
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Papageorgio View Post
    Can anyone confirm seeing around -833? Around 3rd Q when Skins were up 10 Vikings ball. I almost feel like i got a bad like -833 is steep, I was fuked up.
    When they were up by 13 it was probably around that time

  26. #26
    TonyTall
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Papageorgio View Post
    I got buried Redskins -833. Making more crazy faces then Jim Carey on crack.


    http://vimeo.com/28408779
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  27. #27
    blankoblanco
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    no not really. i wouldnt blindly bet anything. Still gotta pick your spots
    Sure. My point is just, if you go back and track the numbers, public in national tv games goes close to 50/50. You can pick spots to bet on the public side or against the public side, doesnt matter. But there's no edge in making a bet just because its against the public, you just have to handicap. If there was an edge in fading public in big games as you suggest, sports betting would be easy money

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  28. #28
    Goat Milk
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    couple thoughts and opinions

    1) if you fade public in every single game across the board, you lose long term.

    2) if you're trying to judge whether to side with public this game, because public hasn't covered the last 2 nationally televised nba games (or whatever sport), you already lost.

    The volume of bets books take is insane. Public covering 10 nationally televised games in a row won't even put a dent in the big books. A lot of their action is coming on big time soccer matches that most americans never even heard of. There's so many games going on, you saying for example "oh, no home dogs have covered so far this week in nfl" and there's a sunday night home dog and mnf home dog "oh, at least one of these home dogs has to cover for that reason"

    it's way too hard to win consistently with that type of methodology imo

  29. #29
    frostno98
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    What I found out in the last 4 years is you can't just blindly fade the public anymore. The only thing that is consistent with fading the public is Monday night football and the NFL playoffs. Even the BCS games, the big money game the public were covering easily.

  30. #30
    SBR_John
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    We have pretty much proved that if you fade anything over 65% consensus in the BTP NFL you are a winner. Maybe we should commission some back testing. Since there are 1000 players its an ok sample. Not sure about NCAA.

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  31. #31
    tony_come
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    Ok oldie

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