1. 11-01-13 03:41 PM #1
    stevenash
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    Interesting PAC-10 game tonight

    USC had a rock solid defense, among the top in the nation in scoring defense, however Mannion leads the nation in passing and OSU leads the nation in pass offense, but USC is among the national leaders in defensive pass interceptions, and passing yardage allowed.

    Something has to give here.
    I subscribe to the Bill Parcells theory that good defense stops good offense.

    OSU doesn't run the ball, they average 66 yards a game on the ground.
    USC is 15th in the entire nation in run defense.

    Mannion averages 50 (almost) passes a game.
    OSU averages 40 + points a game, but it's one thing to put up 50 spots against Hawaii and the Utah's of the world, Stanford held the Beaves to 12 last week, and Mannion put the ball up over 50 times.
    Funny what happens when you play a real defense.

    You would have to figure 55 + pass attempts tonight, Beavers ain't getting anything on the run, unless it's one or two of those quick hitters, and I don't see that happening.

    So, on the Beaver side of the ball, it's Mannion and Cook versus a rock solid USC D-backs and safeties.

    USC has a more balanced attack, Kessler ain't Mannion, not even close, but he's not crap by any means, and smart.

    Madden is their best option of offense to win for USC, he's good for almost 100 game, but it's not going to easy yardage, Beavers have a good run defense.

    Oregon's pass defense isn't as good as their run defense, but you would think USC would want to run the ball and play ball control/keep away from OSU and their all-world QB/WR combo, even though USC has two receivers who can both get it done.

    Been looking at this game and breaking it down for the last 90 minutes, to the point of micro-analysing it.

    52 points on the over/under total is so sharp.
    Beavers ain't getting their 40 point average, not happening tonight.
    They will get more than 12 that they got last week.
    Let's put OSU on 24
    USC should put up 28.
    I get 52 total points.

    Line is -4 Oregon State.
    The play might be USC plus the four.
    But that Reser is a tough place to go up to and win.

    Which brings me back to my opening statement.

    Interesting PAC-10 game tonight
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  2. 11-01-13 03:55 PM #2
    Justin3587
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    I like Oregon State -3.5, or at least that's what I saw it at last. If it's 4 now, I still like that as well. I didn't look at the stats, because I feel like this is more of a mental game than anything. I feel like USC is a football factory and they are 5-3. I don't think they have the motivation to go out there and play as well as they can. 5-3 is not the record they want to have right now, so I feel like they are thinkgin "play, for what?". Oregon State is on cloud 9 and I think they will come out a whole lot more motivated. I know it sounds stupid, but that's my logic.
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  3. 11-01-13 03:59 PM #3
    stevenash
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    ^
    It's not stupid, it's an angle, a way at looking at the game.

    I have gone from under, to over, back to under, to I don't phucking know now.

    I've gone from USC to OSU and back again myself
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  4. 11-01-13 04:00 PM #4
    t-wizzle
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    Oregon State coming off a tough game with a physical Stanford team. USC is playing a lot better lately.
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  5. 11-01-13 04:01 PM #5
    Justin3587
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    Haha I agree, that happens to me quite often as well.
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  6. 11-01-13 04:01 PM #6
    stevenash
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    ^
    USC does have all the better numbers except passing.
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  7. 11-01-13 04:04 PM #7
    Vinnie Paz
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    Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
    Oregon State coming off a tough game with a physical Stanford team. USC is playing a lot better lately.
    they've responded well to coach O indeed

    Friday night same game action teaser for me:

    USC +10 & under 58 at -110 odds
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  8. 11-01-13 04:04 PM #8
    letsgo
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    I thought Oregon States run defense was bad?
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  9. 11-01-13 04:10 PM #9
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by letsgo View Post
    I thought Oregon States run defense was bad?
    Middle of the road
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  10. 11-01-13 04:16 PM #10
    thetrinity
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    under maybe ore st tt under
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  11. 11-01-13 04:17 PM #11
    Vegas39
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Middle of the road
    35th in run defense
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  12. 11-01-13 04:23 PM #12
    Fettirooski
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    Disagree that USC has nothing to play for. They have been playing their hearts out for Coach O ever since he took over. I think the quote from Reeser was "Its nice having a Coach that you can go to war with, that you would die for." Seriously. Orgeron is a player's coach and the players love this guy. They are playing for him so he will be in consideration for the job this offseason, and lets not forget, if USC has a kicker they beat Notre Dame no doubt. That makes them bowl eligible right now. Instead, they are playing to go bowling tonight and every kid in the country wants a free vacation and $350 spending money handed out in the bowl stipend. Trojans +4.
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  13. 11-01-13 04:34 PM #13
    vinhmen
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    USC offense has sputtered lately so expecting them to put up 24 may be tough. Their best chance at cover might be the D slowing the OSU pass attack, so I'm going Under.
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  14. 11-01-13 04:38 PM #14
    Smoke
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    Steve don't bet it
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  15. 11-01-13 05:27 PM #15
    stevenash
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    ^
    Haven't decided what to do yet

    Smokey? Have you given thought as to what the SBR community has suggested and that you take a SBR vacation?
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  16. 11-01-13 06:04 PM #16
    Becel
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    This is a classic live bet scenario. Which teem will dictate the outcome. USC's D or Oregon ST's O. I think I'll wait and watch the flow of the game in the first quarter and see if there is value for a live bet. Although I lean the under small right now and Oregon slightly more.

    Its tough to put money on a team that can only muster 7 points of offense against Washington ST. Especially on the road. The line confuses me though I would have thought Oregon would have opened a touchdown or more. Maybe the line makers know more than I do. Anyhoo just my opinion and good luck.
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  17. 11-01-13 06:09 PM #17
    pavyracer
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    USC is garbage on the road. Expect a snooze fest with Oregon St winning 16-10.
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  18. 11-01-13 06:24 PM #18
    BMoreBird
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    Under
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  19. 11-01-13 06:26 PM #19
    Unwritten Law
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    that's a splendid idea to live this game. Unless you already have a solid read.
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  20. 11-01-13 06:26 PM #20
    TonyTall
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    usc great startes, no depth. they get tired in the 2nd half. usc +2 1h here
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  21. 11-01-13 06:50 PM #21
    Becel
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    Well I went and teased a soft unit on Oregon St +3 and u 58.5. I wouldn't recommend this though. College fb is so erratic. You never know if these kids will come to play. Its like I say watch the first quarter and see if there is value somewhere.

    In the meantime, I grabbed the over 193 (livebet) in the NBA Charlotte Cleveland game. They are running and gunning. Luvin the what should be easy money.
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  22. 11-01-13 06:51 PM #22
    ChalkyDog
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    Nash, no joke, I appreciate you referring to this conference as the PAC-10.

    I loathe the PAC-12. I hate the teams we added. I hate the conference championship game. I hate the PAC-12 network. I hate that we can no longer have a true round robin schedule. I hate not being able to play everyone in our conference once in football and twice in basketball.

    Really miss the PAC10.
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  23. 11-01-13 07:12 PM #23
    ZIPPER HEAD
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    Nash- I appreciate your post. It's posts like yours is what I'm looking for. Thanks!! I'm on the pink beavers!
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  24. 11-01-13 07:22 PM #24
    beermankirk
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    Fri 11/1 6021 C.Kessler pass completions over 19½ -115
    8:55PM 6022 C.Kessler pass completions under 19½ -115
    Fri 11/1 6023 C.Kessler passing yards over 244½ +115
    8:55PM 6024 C.Kessler passing yards under 244½ -145
    Fri 11/1 6025 C.Kessler TD passes over 2½ +200
    8:55PM 6026 C.Kessler TD passes under 2½ -260
    Fri 11/1 6027 C.Kessler TD passes+INT's over 2½ +145
    8:55PM 6028 C.Kessler TD passes+INT's under 2½ -175
    Fri 11/1 6031 N.Agholor pass receptions over 4½ -135
    8:55PM 6032 N.Agholor pass receptions under 4½ +105
    Fri 11/1 6033 N.Agholor receiving yards over 70½ -110
    8:55PM 6034 N.Agholor receiving yards under 70½ -120
    Fri 11/1 6051 S.Mannion pass completions over 34½ -105
    8:55PM 6052 S.Mannion pass completions under 34½ -125
    Fri 11/1 6053 S.Mannion passing yards over 344½ -145
    8:55PM 6054 S.Mannion passing yards under 344½ +115
    Fri 11/1 6055 S.Mannion TD passes+INT's over 3½ -155
    8:55PM 6056 S.Mannion TD passes+INT's under 3½ +125
    Fri 11/1 6059 B.Cooks pass receptions over 9½ -125
    8:55PM 6060 B.Cooks pass receptions under 9½ -105
    Fri 11/1 6061 B.Cooks receiving yards over 135½ +125
    8:55PM 6062 B.Cooks receiving yards under 135½ -155
    Fri 11/1 6063 B.Cooks rush+receiving yards over 129½ -170
    8:55PM 6064 B.Cooks rush+receiving yards under 129½ +140
    Fri 11/1 6071 S.Woods pass receptions over 5 -115
    8:55PM 6072 S.Woods pass receptions under 5 -115
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  25. 11-01-13 07:23 PM #25
    beermankirk
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    Lots of props on him to go with your thoughts here:


    Mannion averages 50 (almost) passes a game.
    OSU averages 40 + points a game, but it's one thing to put up 50 spots against Hawaii and the Utah's of the world, Stanford held the Beaves to 12 last week, and Mannion put the ball up over 50 times.
    Funny what happens when you play a real defense.
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  26. 11-01-13 08:13 PM #26
    Vinnie Paz
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    Broken coverage results in wide open marquise lee . 7-0 USC
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  27. 11-01-13 08:46 PM #27
    Fettirooski
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    Nash- did you tail me or ride with your ole friend Smoke?
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  28. 11-01-13 09:40 PM #28
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fettirooski View Post
    Nash- did you tail me or ride with your ole friend Smoke?
    Line jumped to 4.5
    That extra .5 is gigantic.
    Took the Trojan as bow-wows.

    Game could go either way 2H


    College Football 2nd Half Spread Money Line Total Points Team Total Points
    USC at Oregon State
    Fri 11/1 313 USC +165 o10½ -140 u10½ +110
    9:00PM 314 Oregon State -190 o14½ -125 u14½ -105
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  29. 11-01-13 09:42 PM #29
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChalkyDog View Post
    Nash, no joke, I appreciate you referring to this conference as the PAC-10.

    I loathe the PAC-12. I hate the teams we added. I hate the conference championship game. I hate the PAC-12 network. I hate that we can no longer have a true round robin schedule. I hate not being able to play everyone in our conference once in football and twice in basketball.

    Really miss the PAC10.
    Yep, and there are tons more people like me and you that feel this way.

    I cringe every time I hear PAC-12, and I am an old school UCONN Big East guy
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  30. 11-01-13 09:43 PM #30
    TonyTall
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    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTall View Post
    usc great startes, no depth. they get tired in the 2nd half. usc +2 1h here
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  31. 11-01-13 09:57 PM #31
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTall View Post
    OK, OK, nice call.

    (blowhard) lol

    nice hit dude.
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  32. 11-01-13 10:47 PM #32
    Fettirooski
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    Yeah nice hit, even tho I disagreed with your angle.

    I still like my Trojans+4 and Trojans+5.5
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  33. 11-01-13 11:09 PM #33
    TonyTall
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    OK, OK, nice call.

    (blowhard) lol

    nice hit dude.

    good win 2
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  34. 11-01-13 11:24 PM #34
    dv_rasnake
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    cashed on usc and the under nice day
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