[odog11]

Checking in and checking it out. Good stuff sando.

What would you put the chances of Fiji being upset here?

[sando]

Checking in and checking it out. Good stuff sando.

What would you put the chances of Fiji being upset here?

I'd say Fiji wins this match 4 out of every 5 times (if not more). They are stacked with NRL talent (NRL = worlds best league) they have speed, power, big strong forwards and genuine game breakers in the backline. Fiji could win this match by 25+ however they may only win by 6 points. The line is a tad high for my liking, however I'm not willing to back against them ATS either.

[kneighfe]

Sando, Fiji -12.5 @ 2.00. Should I take it or should I not?

[sando]

Sando, Fiji -12.5 @ 2.00. Should I take it or should I not?

It's up to you, I wouldn't. There will be plenty of opportunities to make some money over the next month. I plan on crushing this tournament, however this game is an avoid for me. Better games coming up.

[kneighfe]

It's up to you, I wouldn't. There will be plenty of opportunities to make some money over the next month. I plan on crushing this tournament, however this game is an avoid for me. Better games coming up.

Thanks, Sando. I'll take your advise.

[bartlomiej1978]

Bloody hell, we had storm here in UK today, n ow seems to be ok, hope no rain on tonights game

[bartlomiej1978]

Gentelmen take over 41,5 should cover easy, it will be high scoring game

[richie360]

Gentelmen take over 41,5 should cover easy, it will be high scoring game

I bet this and after 60 mins turned it off, thinking it was a sure loss!! Logged in to my bet365 account just now and was £105 better off. This somehow hit!! Must have been a crazy last 20 minutes!!

[the tross]

Tonga in a blowout by 40 according to Tunksie weather depending.

[ExodusNZ]

I bet this and after 60 mins turned it off, thinking it was a sure loss!! Logged in to my bet365 account just now and was £105 better off. This somehow hit!! Must have been a crazy last 20 minutes!!

Just a crazy last 5

[Sacky]

Checking in.

[reddZor]

Hey bro, what you got for Tonga v Scotland?

[sando]

Well my procrastinating over this game has pushed the line out further than I would have liked, however I’m still confident the Tongans can get the job done, and do so in a big way, but there is less perceived value now in the line, so we’ll scale back the play to 2 units.

Tonga – By far the strongest squad (outside the big 3) in this tournament, boasting 20 players with NRL experience, 3 Super League players and only the one local.
Scotland –10 Super League players, 10 KPC league players (2^nd tier league) and 4 NRL players. They do have some nice NRL additions with Wallace in the halves, Linnet in the ¾ line and Luke Douglas up forward.
Forwards –Big advantage to Tonga with a super impressive forward pack, consisting of experience and leadership with Kite and Moimoi, and 3 barnstorming beasts inTaumalolo, Sika Manu and Willie Manu to bust lines and crunch the Scots.
Backs – A massive advantage to Tonga with NRL star game-breakers Tafua, Tupou and Hurrell and quality all through the backline (Fisi’iahi, Fonua, Feki, and more). The gap between Scotland’s backline and that of the Mate Ma’a is indeed huge.
Halves –Scotland do have a clear and significant advantage in the halves, led by the reliable (if not spectacular) Peter Wallace and Super League big gun Danny Brough. If it wasn’t for this advantage in the halves I would completely unload on the Tongans.
History–Tonga crushed Scotland 49-0 at the last world cup in 2008. This is a vastly superior Tongan team to the '08 version, however what also appears to be a stronger Scottish mob (although by how much I don’t know).
Form –Tonga destroyed Samoa 36-4 earlier this year, but chose not to play a warm up match heading into the World Cup. Scotland got convincingly beaten by PNG 38-20 in their world cup warm up match.
Conclusion – On paper Tonga wins by 30+, however I would really loved to have watched a warmup match to see how the side has come together. The Mate Ma’a will be too big, strong and experienced up forward and possess a massive advantage through the back line ¾ line. Players like Hurrell and Tafua will have never been seen by some of the Scottish players, with their combination of strength, speed, nasty fends and side steps, these guys will constantly break the line and probably score some solo try’s. Tupou (aerial specialist) in the air will just be too big and jump too high and should pull in some kicks in the red zone and crash over for try’s, assuming the halves can get the ball in the right spot. Tonga will score a lot of points, the problem is Scotland may land a handful as well, so will quite possibly be adding an over play when the totals come out as well. This game should sail over 40 points. Anyway there will be plenty of opportunities still to come, so I’ll resist the temptation to pull the trigger so early in the tournament and scale back the play to 2 units.

2* Tonga -18.5 (-102/$1.98 Pinnacle)
(or take-19.5 at Sportingbet, Centrebet, Sportsbet, IAS)

[reddZor]

-20 still fine at Sportsbet champ?

[micase]

-20 still fine at Sportsbet champ?

$1.97 -18.5 at Betstar is the best I can find at the moment

[reddZor]

whos the half back for tonga?

[micase]

whos the half back for tonga?

They have Langi from the Roosters U20's and Daniel Foster I believe is from the Penrith U20's team. Both good young players although Langi didn't play well in the Roosters finals campaign.

[lordkai35]

Foster took penrith u20's to win the holden cup grand finals and langi was very solid in the tonga vs samoa clash earlier this year. Wallace has spent his last 6 ish games coming off the bench for brisbane as a reserve hooker. Just like all the other northern hemisphere teams, scotland dont have flair, tonga as Sando wrote has a scary scary backline who don't realy need to rely on the halves to set them up for tries.

[the tross]

Im sold on Tonga. Scots playmakers need a solid platform from their pack and i just can't see them bending the line. Tupou anytime tryscorer $1.62 . Totals up 42.5 on sportsbet.

[sando]

...Adding

1* Tonga team total Over 30.5 (-111/$1.89 Sportsbet)

[the tross]

Tonga tt over is a great play. Gonna throw a lazy $20 at fuifui anytime tryscorer $6.00 @ sportsbet

[plekz]

sando:

So if i only go for one of the two plays in a system type thing, should i go for the TTov or the points handicap?

[bartlomiej1978]

both over lines look ok, waiting for live lines an taking total over around 50 guys

[bartlomiej1978]

heavy rain now

[micase]

heavy rain now

Conditions look absolutely terrible, dropped balls everywhere. Scotland take the lead now 6-4

[edabramov]

is Tonga Tango covering yet.

[horja1]

nice first half by Scotland

[kneighfe]

Sando, are you watching? Do you think Tonga can still cover the 18.5 handicap?

[edabramov]

Sando, are you watching? Do you think Tonga can still cover the 18.5 handicap?

That's a joke right? First time I tail someone on foreign sport in about 2 months, this is why I don't tail anyone. Don't post these ghay rugby sht in soccer section.

Yes I'm mad.

[davopnz]

^ this is players talk you degen fcuking scum of the earth.

[edabramov]

^ this is players talk you degen fcuking scum of the earth.

Go to fkin soccer section and check your self you piece of sht. Don't argue with me clown.

[davopnz]

go to players talk you absolute degenerate, spineless piece of worthless shite, hope you are enjoying losing your play you fcuking sheep of a man.

[edabramov]

go to players talk you absolute degenerate, spineless piece of worthless shite, hope you are enjoying losing your play you fcuking sheep of a man.

Hey fkin clown? Did you not comprehend what I just told you? You want me to repeat my self clown? Go to soccer section and check, you dickrider. Now keep quite and remain in the corner where you belong.

[davopnz]

mate i don't give two shits whether it's in the pussy fiddling section or not that's not sandos fault, he's posted this in players talk. it's not his fault that some diving degenerate like you saw his thread and couldn't resist tailing his plays and then getting upset about it because you have a massive void in your life. get the penetrate out of here you spineless jellyfish.

[edabramov]

mate i don't give two shits whether it's in the pussy fiddling section or not that's not sandos fault, he's posted this in players talk. it's not his fault that some diving degenerate like you saw his thread and couldn't resist tailing his plays and then getting upset about it because you have a massive void in your life. get the penetrate out of here you spineless jellyfish.

Shut your fkin mouth you fkin worthless piece of shit. I make more money in an hour than what's in your safe you stupid fuk. What did I tell ya? Keep your fkin mouth shut already, I didn't let you talk, don't respond to me you stupid fk. Go play outside now.