[stevenash]

I'll put it in simple terms.

The best bet you can make wagering on the NFL is betting the double digit home underdog.
The numbers are out there, I have brought this up several times, and others here at SBR have verified, the double digit home underdog covers (depending on what source use, and how far back you want to go) in the 62 to 64 percent range.

There are several theories as to why is such a consistent winning bet (and I know it is, because I bet each and every double digit dog (there aren't that many in a single overall season)
Some say the fans seem to be more rabid, some say the double digit dog rises up to the challenge at home, as not to be embarrassed or disrespected, some say the big road favorite just might be prepared, but doesn't take the game as serious as it should, whatever the reason, it's the undisputed best wager you can make.

We got one of these games Monday night
Rams are 11 point underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks in the Jones Dome.
And I'm taking the points.

I'm not saying the Rams are better than Seattle, they are not.
I am not saying Kelly Clemens is a better QB than Wilson, he is not.
I am not saying Lynch is both a force and a beast running the ball. He is all that.

You can tell me eight ways to Sunday on how Seattle is worlds better than St. Louis, and you'd be right.

There are tons of ways to cover an 11 spot at home.

One way is for the Rams to play up to their potential, they are professionals after all, every player on every team is a professional, and actually go toe to toe for 60 minutes.

Another way to cover 11 is to play a pretty good game, get out played a little bit and lose by 8 or 10
Then you have the possibility of having Mr. Back Door Cover come a knocking at the door.
Who hasn't been bitten in the ass by Mr. Back Door cover.

Now, for those of you who like to fade the public, know this, and know this well, the Seahawks are the most bet team this week up to this morning.

NFL Public Bets

#1 231 Seattle Seahawks 85%

#2 218 New Orleans Saints 77%

#3 229 Green Bay Packers 76%

#4 220 New England Patriots 72%

#5 209 San Francisco 49ers 69%

#6 227 Atlanta Falcons 69%

#7 216 Kansas City Chiefs 67%

#8 223 Pittsburgh Steelers 62%

#9 226 Denver Broncos 59%

#10 213 New York Giants 58%

I subscribe to the NY Daily News, each and every Friday they feature a panel of their sports guys and their selections ATS. Four know their stuff, the other four are pretty good.
Anyhow, all 8, each and everyone has the Seahawks -11.

Hank Gola, who is very respected, says Seahawks will bury the Cards, and his words, the Dome will feel like a funeral home.

I am not a full fledged conspiracy nut, but I do know Vegas and the books are not in the business to lose money.
I also know ESPN will not get embarrassed in their signature telecast MNF, I'm not a nut, but why do I get the feeling ESPN will get a good game?

The baseball Cards will be front and center that night, but I am reading their is no blackout, more than enough seat are sold too, but I digress, and I should be wrapping up this long winded post by now anyway.

OK, I am not telling you to bet the Rams, but I am.
For the reason I stated above.
1) Double Digit Dogs usually cover around 2 out of 3 times.
2) Everybody, their sister, their puppy dogs and pet hamsters are pounding the 'Hawks at a 80 percent market rate.
3) All the 'experts' are on Seattle, and some are 'best bets' of the week.
4) Can't miss, Christmas in October, free money, Seahawks romps, right? Vegas gets buried right?

Vegas doesn't get buried.

Pass, fade or tail, doesn't matter, I am not bucking the DDD trend, it's a proven winner.
Is it a lock? NO, no such thing.
Will the Rams cover? Probably.

I really think the Rams lose by three and all Seattle teaser bets go down too.

This is my story, and I am sticking to it

[JoeyCrackTheDon]

Good post. Thoughts on Minn as a double digit dog at most books? With the majority of GB's receiving corps out for this one and 76% of people on the packers this one sticks out to me too as being too many points.

[face]

good post and stats
could start to change w/ today's passing league and lots of penalties

[konck]

Seattle xould play a low scoring game and not cover ...but what I watch for is how did the public do on Sunday. When the public loses big on Sunday they usually get the monday night game correct....true

[BiTeMe UsAdOj]

Nice work, Nashy

[YouHave2outs]

[jjgold]

Nashy always has some good data

[thunderous]

Wouldn't this apply to 49ers/Jaguars game...+14.5?

[rm18]

Wouldn't this apply to 49ers/Jaguars game...+14.5?

The game is in London, though I am on the Jags at +17

[tto827]

Wouldn't this apply to 49ers/Jaguars game...+14.5?

While it still fits the system, at 14.5 I'd assume most of the value is gone there. When it was 17 or so it was definitely a good play.

[lakerboy]

10.5/11 usually teaser lines.

[Le_Donk]

Hank Gola, who is very respected, says Seahawks will bury the Cards, and his words, the Dome will feel like a funeral home.

rams already had a "big" thursday night game againgst the 49ers and the dome was so quiet with zero energy from the fans after san franciso scored 2 touchdowns unanswered in the first half.

[stevenash]

rams already had a "big" thursday night game againgst the 49ers and the dome was so quiet with zero energy from the fans after san franciso scored 2 touchdowns unanswered in the first half.

Brain fart, that mistake was pointed out to me.
Come on man, you know it was a slip, a minor brain fart on my part. It's Saturday morning for the love of God, I don't get paid to think on weekends.

[Le_Donk]

Brain fart, that mistake was pointed out to me.
Come on man, you know it was a slip, a minor brain fart on my part. It's Saturday morning for the love of God, I don't get paid to think on weekends.

yeah man
the rams fans had given up so early on their team, not making any noise at all on 3rd down plays in the first half when it was a one score game. crowd was really cringe worthy. they had no faith in their team at all.
the stl cards play at the exact same time and fans can get pissed really early that they decided to go to the nfl game if the lambs make some silly mistake

[Ra77er]

Excellent post Steve

[Le_Donk]

what do you think about the jaguars playing in london ?
they signed a deal to play a game at wembley over the next 4 seasons. do they fall in the homedog worthy category, fans most likely will cheer for both teams.

[Le_Donk]

also just wanna say i like your bet ( i see no value in seahawks -11 )
i just wanna find possible reasons to not bet on the rams

[ByeShea]

The game is in London, though I am on the Jags at +17

I like Jags +17 here too.

[Le_Donk]

I like Jags +17 here too.

its already at Jags +14.5

[ByeShea]

what do you think about the jaguars playing in london ?
they signed a deal to play a game at wembley over the next 4 seasons. do they fall in the homedog worthy category, fans most likely will cheer for both teams.

Fans cheering? Think about player mindset. SF has an overbearing coach and the team is in Europe, quite likely being treated like some kind of vacation on some level. While sloppy play from Jax is practically a given, look for enough from SF to not cover gigantic spread.

[agendaman]

dont try and outhink vrgas fade the public e.g. that 49rs. line -17.5 down to 14.5 trapdoor boys 49rs. have a bye next wk. gore runs all day

[agendaman]

vegas that is

[Le_Donk]

Fans cheering? Think about player mindset. SF has an overbearing coach and the team is in Europe, quite likely being treated like some kind of vacation on some level. While sloppy play from Jax is practically a given, look for enough from SF to not cover gigantic spread.

im seeing it from the nfl office perspective thats its not the best way to promote the sport and the jaguars if its a blow out.

are u betting the vikings +9.5 as well ? big division rivalry. vikings fans will go nuts.

[stevenash]

Excellent post Steve

Thank you sir

[stevenash]

im seeing it from the nfl office perspective thats its not the best way to promote the sport and the jaguars if its a blow out.

are u betting the vikings +9.5 as well ? big division rivalry. vikings fans will go nuts.

I'm feeling a dog day Sunday afternoon and Monday night

[RickyRoma]

U guys think jags actually keeps it close?

[ChalkyDog]

I've often had this thought, just because everytime I seemed to be on the otherside of a double digit spread in the NFL I'd lose.

Home + double digits seems like a no-brainer.

[Big Bear]

I wouldnt blindly use this theory.

Rams are a pretty bad football team.

I wouldnt risk money on them. No way

[Big Bear]

U guys think jags actually keeps it close?

fukk no.

C'mon bro watch a little film

[kevin101]

Great post but I think Seattle pumbles the Rams. I also think 49ers will beat Jacksonville -15. They are fhkin brutal.

[TheGuesser]

Seattle also the biggest % in the Hilton contest, over 80% on Seattle. SL is the strongest consensus fade play this week.

[2daBank]

I wouldnt blindly use this theory.

Rams are a pretty bad football team.

I wouldnt risk money on them. No way

blindly using this theory would serve you better than capping gms..

lambs not that bad really,, pretty bad but they play the div well typically, clemons cant really be worse than crosseyed bradford...lambs prob cover but i do worry more than nasher that the stadium be a ghost town, i mean it was on thu night when nothing was going on, if cards win sunday night and can close out gm 5 i just dont see how there more than 15k there unless they promise to play the cards gm on the jumbo-tron..maybe they gonna give the tickets to the homeless or something? i dunno, i dont know anyone who would take a free ticket to this gm if cards are attempting to win WS....still think lambs keep it within 10. something like 23-13 ish

[DoYouNotGetIT]

3 home dogs this week home dogs win 58% of the time. You would win money almost every year if you just bet the home dogs.

Double digit home dogs are 18-2 against the spread since 2009.

[slacker00]

Good heads up. I've always been keen on home dogs anyway.

[Noleafclover]

So JAX +15 is the play?