[MikeTizzy]

Been meaning to start this thread for awhile, but ive decided this is the way to keep myself in check;
Govern myself and hopefully have similar minds coach me if i get outta line. I've pretty much declared the thrill of victory is the only thing im after and keeps me going in this business. Not here to write a whole bio of myself and my 2 years of day in and day out studyin to increase my IQ/edge while having a dayjob while dreaming i have what it takes to be special and different from the rest. Ppl tell me i do, but its now or never and i hope to have u guys read this diary and keep me in check if i get off-track. Recently ive gotten back to being me, and doing what i do best: feeling good, healthy and brainstorming true odds and analysis for matchups to WIN, focusing on mainly true locks and values. So i need to stay on this track as long as i live, and u guys are welcome to help me stay on track as ill be writing all my scouting/notes here. As well as theories, my self created systems of real time analysis of the highly improbable, which is no retroactive back testing of useless historical stats unless they apply and relevant to a specific match-up.

My base bankroll will be 3,000. 1u = 100 USD. Not gonna even think ive won anything recently, i realized none of it matters. Everyday u put in work like u need to win ur last meal. I need to hold myself responsible for every play i make. This is the only way to not take ur winnings for granted or count ur stacks of the past, then get lazy and takin shortcuts and BAM u get caught in a terrible situation where u made a very bad -EV move and then u start chasing that single loss cus of stupid pride and throws off ur whole demeanor and system to what have got u successful in the first place. Then it gets ugly, REAL FAST. That has been my biggest flaw, and i vow to improve and eliminate that once and for all.

Item	Amount
Current Balance:	1,751 USD
Available Balance:	4,701 USD
Amount at Risk:	50 USD
Last Week`s Win/Loss Figure:	220 USD
This Week`s Win/Loss Figure:	1,481 USD

only pending at the moment:

NFL DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR 2013/2014 -TO WIN [902975] TYRAN MATHIEU +1000

50/500

notes today: NHL Chi Hawks still money on road Unders, especially at 5.5 value, with their style and dynamics they play with. Takes 2-0 lead, and lets panthers back in 2-2 in mid 3rd, but still gritty to win it with superior talents in SHOOTOUT. Final 3-2

Under and Hawks ML hits, as well as 5u on parlay with straights. Loss on PL Hawks for 2u@ +165.
So pregame analysis is spot on with U/5.5 as the lock, but with the superior talent coached team to win it most likely. Brings us today profit of +1476

onto tomorrow, dont get too high or too low. Sleep and eat well, prepare and gameplan for TNF.

[Russian Rocket]

Best of luck to you Tizzer!...I'll be following your journey

[MikeTizzy]

haha.. thanks Rocket! its alrdy been a long journey, my sophomore year now. Made huge strides with my stats, analysis and market(s) evaulations, i just gotta keep doing it more consistently. Its the losing and knowing the fact why u lose that disturbs me so much, and i dont wanna go there again.. Its absolutely the worst, winning is all that matters to me in life.

[MikeTizzy]

more NHL notes: CLB still under-valued as far as the market goes, holding strong since last yr. They were king of Unders, especially @home. At times u could get 5.5, lock values has 90% in game value as well so possible to use in many scenarios, action reverses or parlays as well. They were winning SU as big dogs last yr, and is exceptionally tough to beat outright on home ice. Was even dogs vs Public team VAN (over valued for yrs) recently, beat them soundly 3-1 with the empty netter to seal it. Scored 1st, and took 2nd lead 2-1 as well.

[Russian Rocket]

Its the losing and knowing the fact why u lose that disturbs me so much, and i dont wanna go there again.. Its absolutely the worst, winning is all that matters to me in life.

I think losing and knowing the reason why u lose is important...it helps you make adjustments on the fly and it will certainly make you a better gambler down the road.

[Louisvillekid1]

Good luck tizzer

Good peoples

[tatddy]

Gl...crush it...and don't forget to keep having fun.

[MikeTizzy]

yes sir, i just hate that i know so much and repeat similar mistakes. We all been there, and i try my best to extract value from my losses and lear, but i need to write everything so its embedded. Thats how i got this far, there's so many misconceptions in this bizz/world. The more i study the more i find them laughable, who says parlays are useless? in fact they are extremely valuable if u combine true locks. 2-3 90%+ dont ruin the value of the whole scenario at all, and having straights or action reverses on them jus make ur profitable odds so much greater. They cant be weak picks tho, or it all fails and then u feel like shit.

[MikeTizzy]

Honestly, its only fun to me if im learning and winning. Or i would of stopped a long time ago, and pursued another path. Its a waste of time and talent, if im always gonna give back what ive earned. Thats how i see it anyways.

[Russian Rocket]

so with all that said...what do you think about Detroit Red Wings in regulation at +120 for tomorrow? That's my lean.

[MikeTizzy]

im no expert in NHL market, not my field. But i pick certain things out and try to be aware. I live in Chi, so u know my champ hawks are well known and public now. Um as far as that matchup, i only know OTT is talented, this yr more than last yr and very under-valued as far as the market goes. I dont know too much here, only that their most likely isnt a true lock anywhere. 1st matchup since 10/07/11. So i dont plan on doing anything here, i jus want to do my best work with locks, they are worth investing into.

[Russian Rocket]

I gotcha

[MikeTizzy]

updated SBR book at the moment:

Account Figures

Item	Amount
Current Balance	0.53 SBR
Available Balance	0.53 SBR
Amount at Risk	0.00 SBR
Last Week`s Win/Loss Figure	6327.29 SBR
This Week`s Win/Loss Figure	5109.24 SBR
Life Time Figure	5,563.53 SBR
Free Play Balance	0.00 SBR
Item	Amount

lets keep building fellas. gnite.

[MikeTizzy]

checkin in, NHL notes: Rask not in net tonight, Miller is, value swings to Sabres to win or even +1.5. Underated big rival here, with line moving much toward the hapless Sabres, even tho everyone and their mom is on Boston

Underated talented OTT vs Det, howard and Anderson in net. could be a dual , low scoring. Det just came off a 0 goal effort vs Niemi and sharks and lost. Rested OTT comes to town, lookin the value for U/5.5

Nba notes, cover cows of Pelicans @home vs public fave champs the Heat laying 4.

MLB: WS game 1,Aces both pitching at high lvl rolling in, lineup dynamics favor Cards slightly. Both offense loaded tho.

[MikeTizzy]

weather decently clear and friendly for the Aces tonight, low humidty, pressure and Winds. could be a dual even in Fenway high OPS park. Wainwright is modeling Carpenter's ways he says, and with his top tier stuff, definitely able to shut it down along with a well managed improved Pen. Bos has elite pen as well, should be a great game, i see a dual. Still lookin to locate best values, maybe get in 5u somewhere..

[MikeTizzy]

Oct 23 08:05 PM Oct 23 08:05 PM Oct 23 07:35 PM Oct 23 08:05 PM

PARLAY (4 TEAMS) [1952] TOTAL u3½EV (1H STL CARDINALS vrs 1H BOS RED SOX) ( A. WAINWRIGHT - R / J. LESTER -L ) [1662] 1H NO PELICANS +2½-110 [2] TOTAL u5½-150 (OTT SENATORS vrs DET RED WINGS) [4] BUF SABRES +1½-190 50/345

so far..

[MikeTizzy]

alright, done:

STRAIGHT BET [952] TOTAL u7-105 (STL CARDINALS vrs BOS RED SOX) ( A. WAINWRIGHT - R / J. LESTER -L )	525/500
Oct 23 08:01 PM by: INTERNET	60726202	MLB	Oct 23 08:05 PM	STRAIGHT BET [1951] 1H STL CARDINALS +½-135 ( A. WAINWRIGHT - R / J. LESTER -L )	203/150
Oct 23 08:01 PM by: INTERNET	60726203	MLB	Oct 23 08:05 PM	STRAIGHT BET [1952] TOTAL u3½-105 (1H STL CARDINALS vrs 1H BOS RED SOX) ( A. WAINWRIGHT - R / J. LESTER -L )	525/500
Oct 23 08:01 PM by: INTERNET	60726204	NBA	Oct 23 08:05 PM	STRAIGHT BET [662] NO PELICANS +4½-110	550/500
Oct 23 08:01 PM by: INTERNET	60726205	NBA	Oct 23 08:05 PM	STRAIGHT BET [662] NO PELICANS +160	150/240

wish me the best fellas..

[MikeTizzy]

Note: Dont try to overdo with other markets, u dont belong there. Burials will happen and u gotta climb out again Mike, back on track today as CAR rolls full game, 1st half, 2nd half, and all quarters (4). Stick to only ur markets and do what u do best. Should have waited for game 2 WS, game 1 had much variance with jitters of younger away team, tons of errors happened. Stay away from NBA, Pelicans been cover cow, but went died in 4th vs champs that cared to clamp down and win preseason game. 1st half did cover and win as original read i had. No wagers until sat and sun.

[MikeTizzy]

great night again, i couldnt lay off after gettin home and finding 2 locks in NHL. U/5.5 -140 blues cruised whole game and held strong in a stingy fest until OT, then VAN wins it. Also in the nick of time found NYI/PITT game O/5.5 -140 final was Isles winning upset 4-3 in an expected shootout repeat of last yr playoff series. 2-0 today for +800. Was able to fill in my 7 slot lock parlay with Blue under as well, so carried over extended lock values from CAR blowout yesterday.

PARLAY (8 TEAMS) [103] CAR PANTHERS -6½-105 [10] TOTAL u5½-145 (VAN CANUCKS vrs STL BLUES) OPEN PLAY OPEN PLAY OPEN PLAY OPEN PLAY OPEN PLAY OPEN PLAY

38/3408

lookin to fill in some more this weekend and complete this 8tmer by sometime next week. Able to create a system now to locate indepedant locks and sustain and carry over its value until huge parlay is complete. Therefore i have more than enough time to not mess it up, with such a small risk and huge reward, u cant go wrong with this type of play. I am quite pleased with all my recent plays and look to carry over performance tmr and sunday, will hit the studies tonight for football.

STRAIGHT BET [3103] 1Q CAR PANTHERS -½EV	500/500	WIN WIN	500
Oct 24 08:22 PM by: INTERNET	60803158	NFL	Oct 24 08:25 PM	STRAIGHT BET [1103] 1H CAR PANTHERS -3½-110	550/500	WIN WIN	500
Oct 24 08:22 PM by: INTERNET	60803160	NFL	Oct 24 08:25 PM	STRAIGHT BET [4103] 2Q CAR PANTHERS -½-130	260/200	WIN WIN	200
Oct 24 08:22 PM by: INTERNET	60803161	NFL	Oct 24 09:59 PM	STRAIGHT BET [5103] 3Q CAR PANTHERS -½+105	500/525	WIN WIN	525
Oct 24 08:22 PM by: INTERNET	60803162	NFL	Oct 24 09:59 PM	STRAIGHT BET [6103] 4Q CAR PANTHERS -½EV	100/100	WIN WIN	100
Oct 24 09:57 PM by: INTERNET	60813587	CFB	Oct 24 11:05 PM	STRAIGHT BET [9107] TOTAL o77½-105 (MARSHALL - LIVE vrs MIDDLE TENN ST - LIVE)	263/250	WIN WIN	250
Oct 24 10:06 PM by: INTERNET	60814303	NFL	Oct 24 11:23 PM	STRAIGHT BET [9104] TOTAL u37-110 (PANTHERS - LIVE vrs BUCCANEERS - LIVE)	550/500	LOSE LOSE	-550
Oct 25 07:04 PM by: INTERNET	60853484	NHL	Oct 25 07:05 PM	STRAIGHT BET [1] TOTAL o5½-145 (NY ISLANDERS vrs PIT PENGUINS)	435/300	WIN WIN	300
Oct 25 08:03 PM by: INTERNET	60862804	NHL	Oct 25 08:05 PM	STRAIGHT BET [10] TOTAL u5½-145 (VAN CANUCKS vrs STL BLUES)	725/500	WIN WIN	500

[MikeTizzy]

after burial on tues, was able to bounce back strong on wed and thurs , although made terrible mistake with another crap live bet, which backfired, the U/37 didnt have much value but got over zealous. Gotta learn to avoid these low value plays, especially not laying 5u! Feeling great at the moment, which is key to have law of attraction with you, to execute and perform mentally and emotionally stable. Will further update notes on clear football locks tonight and tmr, need to set my foundation legs in so i can really end Sunday night with an onslaught of 5u victories!

[MikeTizzy]

Definition of 'true locks': Plays must have full in-game value and holds strong from beginning to end, should account for margin of errors as well for the cover. Along with in-game value and odds with a great edge in your favor, must have line value as well, a -200 or close is never a true lock since its such a saturated market, the line juice already accounts for variance that will happen, so the other big dog side might easily win it.

arghh jus placed another live wager lol, O/61.5 BYU. hope it hits, as my original read of this game is Over, and it seems 4th quarter should have sufficient scoring to cover. layed 125/100. Prolly should of not did it, but oh well it wont affect me badly if i dont hit it.

[MikeTizzy]

lost cus BYU slowed everything down, and i did think Boise would score, butttt they got stopped on 4th and 1 and that ate away at my odds for sure. Not gonna let this get me down, and gotta control myself better and improve. Have to disable this live plays somehow, someway, or this i can see being the death of me. Well back to studying tmr, i need to find some sure blowouts. Leggooo

[MikeTizzy]

Oct 26	CFB [114] CENTRAL FLORIDA -14½-105 (B+10)
Oct 26	CFB [123] HOUSTON U +16-105 (B+10)
Oct 26	CFB [132] NAVY +14½-105 (B+10)
Risking 600.00 USD To Win 500.00 US

[MikeTizzy]

wow HOU is balling as expected, UCF is def a buy low stock way better than most teams outranking them. With a SOS of 41, they had to take out Louisville to finally get ranked. Should continue to roll here at home vs UCONN. Need Navy and its groudgame to get this 3tmer done.

-currently lookin into Boston College value vs UNC team that just lost a heart breaker @home in primetime, and doesnt look to even match up to well vs the talented BS squad.

[MikeTizzy]

BC is also off bye and preparation is there. WOW! Navy forces fumble on 3 and 1, next play PITT expects the run but gets hit with a 58 TD pass! Keenan Reynolds throws a bullet that bounces off Whiteside, Thomas catches the deflection and takes it to the house for a TD! so odds lookin good for me to finish off this 5u 3tmer. Navy with lead will hav to dictate with their groudgame and @home should help continue their D play.

The problem is see here with BC is they never perform well on the road, but history doesnt project whats going to happen, thats the science here. This matchup itself has BC fairing very well.

[MikeTizzy]

21-14 mid 4th, with Navy finally getting ground game going. gotta get this cover..

after all breakdown i ended up taking +6 BC in BTP, my 2nd pick this week there.

and -27.5 BAMA full game my real book, missed out on 1h deadline.

STRAIGHT BET [146] ALABAMA -27½-115 (B+½)

575/500

[MikeTizzy]

great! Navy ties it up 21-21, for my +14.5 cover the bag. Awesome, off to great to start on Sat. lets go Bama, should have control of Vols all game, with such a dynamic balance mistake free Offense and superior #1 D in the nation. Vols if they get down as they always do vs Bama should be a long day for their coaches plans and players get outclassed.

[MikeTizzy]

FSU -14 -105 2nd half in, 210/210. Noles looks to definitely keep up the dominance, and with such high TD conversions rates for this Offense, and D can and ST can score as well. Plenty value here for at least 2u i think.

STRAIGHT BET [2162] 2H FLORIDA STATE -14-105

210/200

[MikeTizzy]

FSU head coach pulls all their guys before 2h starts and says no need for style points, so no go for onslaught therefore backdoor cover has odds to come through.

[MikeTizzy]

-checkin in
stayed up late and woke up a few hrs extra early today to prepare thorough gameplans. Went through all the matchup to get double side value of scenarios with high probability. Noon games confirmed, need to finish up some more and wrap these teasers right.

so far:

6TEAS FB 6, 6½, 7 NBA 5, 5½, 6 CBB 4, 4½, 5 PTS [209] SF 49ERS -9-110 (B+6) [213] TOTAL o43½-105 (B+6) (NY GIANTS vrs PHI EAGLES) [216] KC CHIEFS -1-110 (B+6) [218] NO SAINTS -4½-105 (B+6) [220] NE PATRIOTS PK-105 (B+6) [222] TOTAL u47½-105 (B+6) (NY JETS vrs CIN BENGALS)

500/3000

3TEAS FB 10, 10½, 11 NBA 8, 8½, 9 CBB 7, 7½, 8 PTS [209] SF 49ERS -4½-110 (B+10½) [216] KC CHIEFS +3½-110 (B+10½) [218] NO SAINTS PK-105 (B+10½)

650/500

4TEAS FB 13 NBA 10 PTS [210] JAC JAGUARS (N) +28-110 (B+13) [213] TOTAL o36-105 (B+13) (NY GIANTS vrs PHI EAGLES) [215] CLE BROWNS +20-105 (B+13) [221] TOTAL o27½-105 (B+13) (NY JETS vrs CIN BENGALS)

700/500

best of luck to everyone.

[MikeTizzy]

last one for noon:

3TEAS FB 10, 10½, 11 NBA 8, 8½, 9 CBB 7, 7½, 8 PTS [216] KC CHIEFS +3½-105 (B+10½) [217] TOTAL o38-105 (B+10½) (BUF BILLS vrs NO SAINTS) [218] NO SAINTS PK-105 (B+10½)

650/500

did my best.. better keep my shirt on..

[MikeTizzy]

unreal.. Chip kelly produces 0 pts again on Offense.. somethin isnt going right in philly at all.. gotta learn, that misconception of Chip kelly able to produce constant offense. lookin at that 15-7 score baffles me, 5 FGs from Giants as well, amazingly bad.

[MikeTizzy]

Redskins up 21-7 in 3rd.. loses by final of 45-21!! i am absolutely speechless, i went from a +1700 week to +110 now... i had +22 Skins and didnt cover...

[BiTeMe UsAdOj]

Tizzy... for various reasons I like reading this Diary

Tuff go w/ the Skins/Broncs game... it was all over the place

GL heading forward and keep updating this

[ShogunRua]

Mike! You clearly have the mind to beat this hard game! Don't let variance hurt your confidence! Sh it happens!

I have to ask though...you have been killing SBR Casino (from the looks of your badges). What game are you playing and how are you beating it? Just curious.

Good luck the rest of the season.