1. #1
    husky
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    Verified Handicappers in Teasers??

    Hi all. I just thought of the idea of using verified profitable NCAAF/NFL handicappers (there are very few of course) and playing their releases in teasers? My thought is that if these handicappers have an edge on the spread, by playing teasers with their plays (ESPECIALLY if the teasers cross key numbers of 3, 7, 10), what are people's opinions on this idea in terms of profitability?

    Example:

    Say RAS releases an NCAAF play where the line is at -8.5 and another NCAAF play where the line is at +2. I would think about playing a 6-point teaser at +100 odds to get the lines to -2.5 and +8 as these would cross key numbers.

    Thoughts?

  2. #2
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by husky View Post
    Hi all. I just thought of the idea of using verified profitable NCAAF/NFL handicappers (there are very few of course) and playing their releases in teasers? My thought is that if these handicappers have an edge on the spread, by playing teasers with their plays (ESPECIALLY if the teasers cross key numbers of 3, 7, 10), what are people's opinions on this idea in terms of profitability?

    Example:

    Say RAS releases an NCAAF play where the line is at -8.5 and another NCAAF play where the line is at +2. I would think about playing a 6-point teaser at +100 odds to get the lines to -2.5 and +8 as these would cross key numbers.

    Thoughts?

    NCAAF teasers are never profitable IMO. The lines are just nowhere near as sharp IMO

  3. #3
    chunk
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    When many make statements, do you ever, and I mean EVER have any stats to back up these (sometimes absurd) statements?

  4. #4
    husky
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    I agree that NFL lines are sharper, but if one were teasing less sharp lines on the correct side, we are getting even more value...of course, this is where long-term profitable handicappers come into play.

    Even 3-team 10 point teasers coulddo be something to look at at -120 odds ties reduce?

    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    NCAAF teasers are never profitable IMO. The lines are just nowhere near as sharp IMO

  5. #5
    WikeyWo
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    Just some data from the 2010 NCAAF season:

    10-point teasers went 1045-351-40 (75.84%), so one would hit a 3-teamer 43.60% of the time.
    6-point teasers went 910-486-40 (65.18%), so one would hit a 2-teamer 42.48% of the time.

    Now of course this would be different if one followed a 'capper. But there's just the base data, so use it as you see fit.

  6. #6
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by chunk View Post
    When many make statements, do you ever, and I mean EVER have any stats to back up these (sometimes absurd) statements?
    are you kidding me? I posted "IMO" twice. You act like I made a sweeping decleration

  7. #7
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by WikeyWo View Post
    Just some data from the 2010 NCAAF season:

    • 10-point teasers went 1045-351-40 (75.84%), so one would hit a 3-teamer 43.60% of the time.
    6-point teasers went 910-486-40 (65.18%), so one would hit a 2-teamer 42.48% of the time.

    Now of course this would be different if one followed a 'capper. But there's just the base data, so use it as you see fit.

    so you'd have to be a hell of a capper to win basically

  8. #8
    Pancho sanza
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    Just bet his sides straight up if he wins.

  9. #9
    husky
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    Thanks Pancho. Im just thinking that perhaps teasing a profitable Cappers plays using 10-13 points may reduce some of the up and down swings and keep things more even keeled.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pancho sanza View Post
    Just bet his sides straight up if he wins.

  10. #10
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by husky View Post
    Thanks Pancho. Im just thinking that perhaps teasing a profitable Cappers plays using 10-13 points may reduce some of the up and down swings and keep things more even keeled.

    I would tease AND play the sides IF you thought the guy was profitable. You get a steadier cash flow with the teasers while still having the risk with the sides. A GOOD handicapper MIGHT be profitable with teasers but I don't see it in NCAA foots. Too volatile. Surprised books haven't dropped the prices to entice more action.

  11. #11
    husky
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    Thanks Powell. What would you think about money line parlays from verified profitable long-term cappers? Again, if a legitimate capper released an NCAAF or NFL game at -7.5 and -9 for exmple, do you think parlayimg them on the money line would be smart? Again, assuming the capper is profitable ATS longterm. Thanks

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