[C-Gold]

Week 5
Tease GB -1/Denver -1.5 ---> WIN
Cincinnati +1 --------------> Win
Indy +3 --------------------> WIN
Giants -1 -------------------> Loss

I have been riding Denver all year, last week was the first week I didn't take them ATS, but I teased them. I teased Green Bay early in the week before Calvin Johnson was out and the line moved up to 10.

The theme last week was that once people think they have a team figured out, then upsets start to happen. I faded New England to get their first loss after an impressive win in Atlanta, just when you think you never want to fade Brady and Bellicheck.. Cincy beats New England. Same thing with Seattle. ESPN and the Radio shows are all about Seattle, well guess what, people don't realize it yet but Indy is a legit team. They beat both of the mighty preseason champs San Francisco and Seattle. Andrew Luck says the read option QB's can kiss his ass. NOW, NOW people are finally starting to talk about Luck and the Colts. Luck was the #1 pick for a reason. If he came out the year before he would have been the #1 pick over Cam as well. He's better than RG3, Kaep, RW and all the others. He took a 1 win team to the playoffs last year and he's already beat both the running QBs this year even though they have superior teams.

Thursday night
Giants @ Bears -7.5

The Giants are a disaster. I thought they would play better last week and they did. They jumped out to a 7-0 lead on their first possession. They were driving on their second possession and then poof, the penalties prevented them from scoring and they went into an offensive rut. You can be a pretender for a little bit, but NFL games are long and the better team won on Sunday.

The Giants are without Pro Bowl RG Chris Snee, Center Davis Bass is out, and they have a rookie RT. Their LT is supposed to be above average but he hasn't played that way and their LG is average. That line is a disaster. They started a 2nd year undrafted rookie center. Backup David Diehl was moved from tackle to RG. David Wilson got hurt so they are starting a running back who was on the couch a month ago. Their backup RB is an undrafted rookie turnover machine out of Maryland. The Giants are averaging 56 rushing yards per game on 3.3 per carry but that doesn't even tell how bad they are. On 1st or 2nd down the Giants get nothing. Eli has statistically been in the most 3rd and longs in the league. The only time the Giants actually accrue any rushing yards is on a 3rd and 10 draw they might fool the other team into 5 meaningless rushing yards for field position. Or maybe a few garbage runs in the 4th quarter. The Giants are averaging 56 rush yards per game but for all intensive purposes they have no running game at all.

So the Giants are statistically getting into the most 3rd and longs in the league. Eli has some receivers but he has little to no time to throw. He can still read the blitz, and he's the best in the league at setting up his protection to make sure open rushers aren't coming after him, but his guys are getting beat in their matchups. There is nothing the QB can do about it. If the lineman can't block the guy in front of them they need to be replaced. It's not stunts, or zone blitzes or stacked blitzes, it is simply beating the guy in front of you. You can ridicule ELI all you want but nobody would do any better. Tom Brady had under 200 yards last week, 0 TD and 1 INT, does he suck too? Sometimes things are completely out of the QB's control and this is one of those times.

The Giants defense is also a complete mess.
- None of their LBs are above average.
-The Giants are down 3 cbs, and 2 safeties, they had to start Tremaine McBride at corner. A guy who has played on 3 teams in 3 years and this was his 2nd start in 3 years.
- JPP has had a hurt back and hasn't been himself.
- Justin Tuck regressed the last 2 years and isn't the guy who was sacking Tom Brady in the super bowl. He had 4 sacks and 5 sacks the last two years.

So the Giants defense has no pass rush, weak linebackers, a journeyman corner begging to get challenged, and no depth. This is what happens when you are good for so long. Toss in the offensive line problems, no running game, bad special teams, and inopportune penalties and this team is every bit as bad as their 0-5 record.

The ratings say this is the biggest mismatch of the week in terms of spread and reality. Bears are at 7.5 some places, 8 at others but it should be about 5 points more. I like the Bears in a teaser and I also might play them ATS. Giants have a lot of injuries, no chemistry working all these backups in and they have a short week. The Giants defense is bad enough that Cutler shouldn't be pressured that much, and he can beat the Giants back 7 without taking too much risk and committing turnovers. Giants have been blown out in 4 out of their 5 games. I really like the Bears in a teaser and I like them ATS. It goes back to what I realized in the 3rd and 4th quarter of the Giants/Eagles game last week. You can fool the other team for a little bit but NFL games are long, and the better team usually wins.

[C-Gold]

Green Bay @ Baltimore +3

The odds say this game should be a pick'em but Green Bay has only played 4 games while Baltimore and many others have played 5. Clay Matthews being out hurts Green Bay's defense and the Ravens have 3 injured receivers. Flacco threw 5 picks, 2 weeks ago in a loss @ Buffalo with a 50% completion percentage, and he had o TD 1 INT last week. Losing Boldin and Pitta hurt but I think losing Cam Cameron hurt also. Jim Caldwell isn't nearly as good at calling plays. Baltimore had 120 rushing yards last week between Rice/Pierce. They need to establish the run to relive pressure of Flacco. He did well throwing to Smith, but the others guys are all unproven. They can't afford to get into a shoot out with Aaron Rodgers.

Green Bay is 0-2 on the road.
Baltimore's defense is only giving up 335, 5.4 per play on defense but part of that is playing Weeden, Schaub, EJ Manuel and Tannehill.

The Packers are the public play but I'd still lean with them here especially if you could get the line at -2.5. If Green Bay wins this game their schedule gets a lot easier.
Cleveland at home
@ Minnesota
Chicago at home
Phila at home
@ Giants
Minnesota

Packers should at worst go 4-2 in those games, more likely 5-1 or 6-0. So if the Packers beat the Ravens this week they should get on a nice roll. The good news is that Aaron Rodgers has had somewhat of a run game this year. Lacey had 99 yards last week, Franklin had 103 on the road in Cincy, Starks had 132 against Washington. Baltimores defense has statistically done well but who have they played? Before this season I predicted the Ravens D would improve this year over last year's #17 ranked super bowl defense that got trashed early in the year. They have started to come together but I still lean Green Bay here but it is no lock.

[C-Gold]

Phila @ TB +1

I like Chip Kelly and I like what he's done. His offense is averaging 186 yards per game rushing on 5.6 per carry. It is a copy cat league and Chip Kelly is the original. Even when he was at Oregon Bill Bellicheck invited him to come in and teach. Kelly is ahead of his time but unfortunately he doesn't have a defense and Vick is the most overrated player in NFL history. Foles should get the start this week but how will the offense look? Are they still going to have zone read plays with Foles? The Zone read opens up running lanes and 1 on 1s with tacklers, Shady probably won't get as much of that this week and the Eagles offense will look different than what we've seen. It's not all bad, I mean Foles is already a better passer than Vick but the offense won't run the ball as well.

Plus I like Tampa's D. Schiano is a defensive coach and he improved that defense. Tampa only gives up 332 per game and opposing QB's have a QB rating of 72.1. They played Brees, Brady, Palmer and Geno. They Bucs have given up 23 points, 16, 18 and 13 points. In an offensive and passing dominated league that is good. I give Schiano props for the defense.

Tampa's offense sucks. 174 passing yards per game is pathetic. Josh Freeman sucked, Mike Gleenen will suck. I used to watch Virginia Tech football and Glennan's older brother sucked. I was shocked they were talking about Gleenan in the 1st round and he fell to round 3. I didn't see much of him at NC State but when I did he sucked like his older brother. Tampa has problems on offense.

My initial instinct here is the under 46 even with Phila's fast paced offense and crappy defense. That's funny because Phila to me is an OVER or no play kind of team but going to Tampa, and facing Glennen and having to change that offense around??? Tampa only gave up 16 points to the Saints, of course they can slow Phila down. I actually liked what I saw from Bradley Fletcher at CB for Phila last week. Tampa's defense is good, and their QB sucks. They are going to run the ball and play dink and dunk on offense which will be good enough to win. I don't think Phila is an easy win like some say and Tampa had 2 weeks to prep and their head coach could be fired at any minute, how's that for motivation? I'd lean Tampa and the Under here.

[firedawg]

c-note gl

[C-Gold]

Pittsburgh @ Jets -2.5

How is it even fair that the Steelers had a bye week last week, 14 days to prep for this game, and the Jets have a short week, and 6 days to prep for this game? The NFL schedule makers screwed up on that. I really think the casual gambler doesn't care about that stuff but it matters.

Do people finally see what I've been saying about the Jets yet? They have a defense and an offensive line but in a fantasy football driven world all people see is QB, RB, WR. Yes the Jets are not good there but they are good everywhere else. Geno is getting a lot of credit for the win last night but the Jets ran the ball 22 times and passed 20. Many of those passes were short dump offs. He had maybe 3 decent throws and all the rest of it was managing the game. So after 5 NFL games Geno managed one game well and now people are saying this kid can play. That's pretty stupid. This guy was butt fumble part 2 and he had 11 turnovers going into this game. He sucks and will be a bust. The Falcons and Mike Nolan did exactly the wrong thing. If you watched Geno Smith in the first month of the season you'd see a guy that looked scared in the pocket. The pass rush really bothered him and he had happy feet. He would rush when he didn't have to rush and he'd take his time when he didn't have time. Geno Smith is still not very good, and I'd blitz the hell out of him if I were Dick Lebeau because Geno will make mistakes.

Pitt's D hasn't give up yards but they've also lost all their games. The O-Line has been a mess but Big Ben is still one of the 5 to 10 best QB's in the game. Pitt has 2 weeks to sit and think about how poorly they have played while the Jets are coming home after the win. I loved how Rex Ryan blitzed Matt Ryan with abandonment yesterday. If he gets fired then he will get a new coaching job next year. He is a good coach. Tampa really outplayed the Jets and the Jets really should be 2-3 right now. I think the Steelers go and get their first win this weekend. This should be another low scoring ugly game that Big Ben will have to win.

[C-Gold]

Carolina @ Minnesota -2.5

The two worst coached teams in the NFC coached by two of the 85 Bears.

Ron Rivera is dumb a meat head with no creativity. His front 7 on defense is elite, his secondary is suspect. Rivera is in the Mike Singeltary 1980's frame of thinking - run the ball and stop the run. He has a good O-line and the team spent money on running backs and front 7 on defense. Cam Newton has regressed big time but the truth is he was probably never that good to begin with. He had some passing yards in year 1 but he'd always seem to lose games. He is another guy that looks so uncomfortable in the pocket. Cam really has all the skills and he's not stupid either but I doubt he puts it all together. They say he lacks maturity or emotional stability and I couldn't argue with that. He looks like Vince Young 2.0 and another failed black QB. People will make excuses for Cam because he's a running QB and that's what they do. The only excuse that has merit with me is that they aren't using this guys skill set. Cam isn't a very good passer at this point but the guy can obviously run. Instead of running some select zone read plays, or designed QB draws, or running some creative plays the Panthers coaching staff treat him like he is Drew Bledsoe or something. One of the best coaching jobs I saw was when Mike McCoy, then Denver OC, now San Diego head coach scraped the playbook and made a brand new offense for Tim Tebow that looked nothing like an NFL offense. He adapted his scheme to his players. Carolina needs a guy like Mike McCoy to do just that.

The Vikings are also a crappy coached team. Leslie Frazier is another affirmative action hire. His coaching in the Cleveland game in particular was awful. 2 fakes on special teams including 1 play where nobody covered the gunner and Jordan got an easy TD. Later on Frazier tried to challenge a play that you aren't allowed to challenge and he got a penalty. These are basic things, forget getting beat by Brian Hoyer in his first real start, the team couldn't do basic things. His talent evaluation sucks also. Christian Ponder set this organization back years and that's all Frazier. Adrian Peterson is rotting away in his prime years due to Leslie Frazier's incompetence. Now they bring in a drugged up, lazy Josh Freeman to stir the pot, he's not the answer. The Vikings have 3 QBs but in reality they have 0. So what is Leslie Frazier good at? He gave up 400+ to Big Ben. His defense gives up 432 yards per game. Over 100 rushing and over 325 passing.

I have no interest in betting on this game. 2 of the worst and least predictable coaches in the game. Carolina should be 3-1 right now but they are 1-3. Before the season I predicted the playoff Vikings would go 4-12 this year and the team isn't disappointing this far. No play.

[C-Gold]

Oakland @ KC -9

Speaking of crappy black coaches that didn't deserve the head coaching jobs and the Chiefs are up next! Romeo had 9 pro bowlers on defense yet he won 2 games. Now you bring in Andy Reid and the team is 5-0. You can't make this crap up.

Alex Smith is the extreme example of a game manager. This guy doesn't throw into coverage at all and that's a problem too. The guy might not commit turnovers but he also lacks big plays. Guys like Smith can have pretty good stats, and QB ratings and all that but they still aren't very good. Guys like Smith are only good to the stat geeks that don't understand the game. The whole point of having a guy like Smith is to let the other team beat themselves and that usually does happen, but in the playoffs guys like Smith get beat. You have to WIN super bowls, not let the other teams beat themselves because you are usually playing top teams in the playoffs.

I like what I've seen from Terrell Pryor thus far. I thought he wasn't very good at Ohio State but it looks like he's taken things seriously and it is obvious the guy has improved a lot. If Terrell Pryor had to go back into the draft, he would certainly be a first round pick. Call me crazy but he's played better than RG3, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, EJ Manuel, Geno Smith this year. I know everybody writes off the Raiders but if you've watched their games he has made them competitive. If Pryor started over Matt Flynn I am pretty sure the Raiders would have beat the Redskins. The Raiders took the Colts to the brink on the road. They only lost to Denver by 16. They beat San Diego and they beat the Jaguars.

Pryor has hit 68% of his passes
Pyror has worked quickly, he got the ball out of his hands fast which is impressive for rookies.
Pryor runs well, he is big and strong and fast and feels the rush well.
Pryor has accuracy, he is an NBA level basketball player if he went that route, he has good hand eye coordination.

Oakland is 3-1-1 ATS and 3-0-1 ATS with Pryor starting.

Oakland is averaging 130 rush on 4.7 per play - Chiefs are giving up 115 on 5.2 per play
That's surprising considering how good the Chiefs D is. Raiders have injuries at RB and a mish mash offensive line so they might not get to take advantage of it but I still like Pryor here. If he gets any sort of help from a running game it will help him a lot. If he is in 3rd and longs all game he will make mistakes.

I don't think the Chiefs are that good. They beat the Jags, 3 NFC East teams and the Titans. I'd lean Oakland here with the points in what could be an ugly game. A game manager vs a young QB. KC could blow this game open and win by a lot but I could also see Oakland squeeking out a win outright. I'd take Oakland with the points as Terrell Pryor is underrated here and everybody knows the Chiefs are 5-0. The odds makers see a low scoring game so getting the 9 points are more valuable.

[C-Gold]

Rams @ Houston -7.5

A few years back Matt Schaub had 4700 yards passing and was actually a top 5 fantasy football QB. I said that he was not nearly as good as his stats. Kubiak is one of those coaches who knows how to run a RB friendly scheme. They run stretch run plays, they have guys in motion, they have fakes and bootlegs and you get easy dump off passes to the tight ends. It is easy to have sustainable drives with runs on 1st down, bootlegs, dump offs, and then you can run a play action pass to Andre Johnson for a big gain. The QB doesn't have to be particularly good at reading a defense, you just execute these predetermined plays. So your QB is just a robot, if the play creates some trickery that gives you a wide open 4 yard pass to Owen Daniels you do it. You aren't reading corners or safeties or anything. It is good easy plays that work and move the chains for a QB. Very QB friendly offense. You can manufacture offense with their plays.

So Matt Schaub made a pro bowl. People think he might actually be pretty good. He ran that Kubiak friendly offense, but if you picked him up and put him on many other teams he'd fail. Schaub is no fool, I mean they traded for him and he's smart enough to do what the coaches say, but he was never really a 4700 yard QB. That's not what he was, and that's not what he is. He executes that offense. The Texans will NOT be better with TJ Yates. Schaub had some struggles but he will get through it.

Even after last weeks blowout loss the Texans have outgained their opponents every week. You add that plus a top 5 defense and you have a pretty strong team. The problem is the Texans opened their season with 5 potential playoff teams and they have still outgained each and every single one of them.

I like the Texans, I like Kubiak, and this looks like a decent number to tease. The Rams offense has been a mess and now they have to go at Houston? Will they cover the spread? Maybe, but I really like them to win here. Buy low and sell high.

[C-Gold]

Cincinnati @ Buffalo +7.5

Cinci had the Bears and lost to them in week 1, and 2 weeks ago they shit the Bed against the Browns. They beat the Packers and Patriots. If the ball bounced a little bit differently this team could be 5-0 right now.

3 weeks ago they were a dog that won outright that was favored the next week, they lost ATS and lost outright.
Last week they were a dog that won outright, will they beat the Bills ATS? Teams in that situation historically do bad.

Buffalo is at home and has a long week to prep. I am no EJ Manuel fan but Tuel is awful. So they bring in some bum to start at QB. I think the Bills have a decent team, they have a big offensive line, 2 Rbs, and I love their D-line, I like Kiko Alonso. The question is how well will the bum play? Is CJ Spiller healthy enough to make a difference?

The Bengals have a strong D-line and I think they will go after the young QB like sharks smelling blood. The Bills will probably dumb down the game plan as much as they can to take the ball out of his hands but at some point they will have to make a play. Either that or special teams or the other guys around him will have to make a play. Odds are that Thad Lewis will have to make a play and screw up.

Cinci might be a decent pick to tease, and I'd consider playing them ATS.

[Bet10Heinekens]

very informative thread C-Gold, any word on McFadden playing this week, Oakland usually play their divisional rival tough, oddsmaker overvalue the Chiefs, I believe their offense not that great to cover a double digit spread

[C-Gold]

Det @ Cleveland +3

The Browns have won 3 games in a row. Their defense is only giving up 300 yards per game, granted part of that is the offenses they have played while part of that is they are actually pretty good. They are at home again this week and they have extra time to prep.

The Browns have an elite Left Tackle, they have a gronk like Tight end and they have a guy that is growing into a #1 receiver. They have talent. They have a dynamic kick returner. They have a pro bowl corner. They have Mingo who looks like a stud. I enjoyed watching the Bills/Browns game last week, it was entertaining.

I still like Hoyer better than Weeden but Hoyer is out now and Weeden is in.

Detroit has a D-Line but Cleveland has blockers. I tend to like Cleveland with the points here. Reggie Bush will be slowed down by the grass, Calvin Johnson missed the game last week and that really hurt. I don't think Detroit is that good. I'd take the home dog plus the FG here.

[C-Gold]

Titans @ Hawks -13.5

I like Fitzpatrick. Guy has NFL starter skills but he doesn't have the body. He's 6'2, 223. If he was 6'5, 235 he would probably be an NFL starter/franchise QB. Last week in his spot start he had 250 yards passing, 50 yards rushing 2 TD and 2 INT. This week he goes into the QB Death Valley against the #1 secondary in the NFL. Opposing QBs have a 65.8 rating against the Hawks this year. Fitz will actually take some chances too. I like that. I like guys that try and win. I'd rather lose fighting and trying than lose quietly and not even try. Fitz tries. But keep in mind the odds are heavily against him this week.

The odds say the Hawks should be favored by 10 but the Hawks are so different on the road and at home. The Hawks blow people out at home. It's far to get there and the Offensive lines get a poor jump with all that noise. Plus the Titans are using their backup QB but I don't really care about that. Fitz isn't really a downgrade from Locker at this point.

Let's use Houston for a bench mark. Titans played the Texans, game went into overtime and the Titans lost. Hawks played the Texans and the game also went into overtime, Hawks won. So should the Hawks really be 13.5 point favorites? Yes Seattle should win but should they be 13.5 point favorites? I don't think so. Most people probably think Fitz sucks but I don't. Guy keeps getting NFL jobs for a reason and it's not because of his arm strength, height, size, or legs.

Titans defense has also been pretty good against the pass, and I like that against RW who isn't there yet as a passer. I'd take the Titans and 13.5 points and hope to get it to 14.

[C-Gold]

New Orleans @ New England -2.5

Battle between 2 Parcels disciples, 2 of the best coaches in the NFL.

Tom Brady was 18/38 for 197 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT last week, so does he suck too? Of course not.

Brady has a 56% completion percentage, an 80 QB rating, 7 TD, 3 INT and a lot of frustration. It goes back to what I said about the Giants Eagles game or better yet what Bill Parcells once said, "You are what you are". The Patriots receivers are holding this team back. If they still had Gronk/Hernandez/Welker they could probably contend for a super bowl but they don't have that and this team is in trouble. They need Gronk and Amendola to get in sync with Brady to have any shot at winning anything in the playoffs.

The Pats are trying to transform back to a defensive team that can run the ball. I think that's smart, but management has neglected the passing game due to being cheap.

I keep thinking about the Saints putting up 16 on the road and nearly losing to the Saints.

Pats secondary has been better, their defense looks better, Talib looks good.

Saints secondary has actually played pretty decent thus far, but they haven't faced a great offensive lineup.

Not sure what I think, maybe the Pats give the Saints their first loss. I will think about this game more as it will be a good game to watch at 4. This is the game the whole country will watch at 4.

[C-Gold]

Jacksonville @ Denver -26.5

Denver was my pre season super bowl pick and I rode them to 4-0 before no play last week, actually I had them in a teaser. I'd look at the Broncos 1st half line in this game. I think Peyton will do well, run up the score and then we get some Brock Osweiler. I'd also expect Peyton to run some new plays to get them on film to make future teams have to prep for those plays. I could see him running some plays to break tendencies. He talked about running that QB keeper last week to break the tendency, as he hasn't run that sneak in 5 years. Expect more of that this week.

I love Peyton to cover big spreads because the guy is like a coach. He is never happy, he is always seeking perfecting. But at some point he will have to sit. I really don't see him playing the full game.

Another pro for Jacksonville is the fact that Blackmon is back, and Henne probably starts. This is the Jaguars super bowl. They are such heavy dogs why not try some crazy shit More people will watch this game than they should, just because it is an odd NFL game and an embarrassment to the league.

The spread is probably pretty fair. The best play here is the over 52.5. Broncos have scored 51, 52, 37, 41, and 49 points. Henne is better than Gabbart and now he gets Blackmon. Can they score some garbage points? The Hawks/Jags was a similar game and the OVER easily hit, 45-17. The spread came down to the end, but the over was the easier play. I see that same thing here. Let's say Denver puts up 28, 31 or something like that at halftime, well the backups get some points, Denver gets 40+ points again, can Henne get some garbage points? I'd say so. I'd take the over. There is also the chance Denver goes over by themselves. I'd look at the Denver 1st half line and the over. Peyton wants to get his points and then become Ossweiler's offensive coordinator and everybody will laugh. He will take it seriously and he will want him to do well and score. He is a coach and he only wants to see perfection.

[C-Gold]

Arizona @ SF -11

These teams are actually both 3-2. You wouldn't think they have the same record. Zona is actually 4-1 ATS.

SF only averaging 180 passing yards per game and only giving up 188 per game. SF is averaging 140 per game on the ground but the Cards are only allowing 79 for 3.3 per play on the ground. Kaep only had 6 completions last week. This looks like it can be an under. If the 49ers are going nowhere on offense, and the Cards are going nowhere on offense.

I feel like SF should win but that's a lot of points to be laying. I have a feeling like SF is back but that offense isn't really clicking. Palmer has been a turnover machine so maybe the 49ers offense doesn't need to click. This doesn't really look like my game to bet. If anything probably the under.

[C-Gold]

Wash @ Dal -5.5

Dallas is 4-1 ATS. They played well enough to win @ KC, they played well enough to upset Denver. Romo is playing some really good football. 300+ per game, 13 TD, 2 INT, 72% completion percentage. Look at the Chiefs game, Dallas had no run game, it was all Romo. Is Romo magically better this year? NO, it's the fact that his offensive line improved a lot. He goes from having one of the worst lines in the league to an average line and look at that, his numbers are all getting better.

RG3 is a zone read and a zone read play action QB. The zone read is being defended this year and that's making the play action off the zone read not there anymore. He's missing out on cheap completions and he has regressed as I said. The Redskins offense that they ran last year was perfect for him, but he's not that great of a passer and it is hurting him this year. It is not that he got worse, it is that they are asking him to do different things, things he isn't as good at.

He is not dumb, he is not a thug, but then people automatically assume he's going to turn into some great passer now because he's not stupid. It doesn't work like that. There are plenty of smart people that don't ever get the position.

RG3 also needs to keep his mouth shut. He's the kind of guy that has to get the last word in. It's not good for business. He needs to STFU and play. If Terrell Pryor wasn't out in the Oakland game the Redskins probably would have lost and they would be 0-4 right now.

As much as Dallas is the better team, the Redskins hate the cowboys and had 2 weeks to prep. I'd call this a rivalry but it is a lot more of a rivalry for Washington than it is for Dallas. Dallas is America's team and the jealous Redskins hate them for it. Nobody cares about the Redskins, they have been the Detroit Lions or Oakland Raiders or whatever for the last 22 years.

The problem is that Dallas has a history of playing up and down to their competition. As much as I think the Cowboys are 6 points better than the Redskins, the Redskins had extra time to prep and they hate Dallas. This game could end up being like the Jets/Falcons game last night, where the road dog surprises.

[C-Gold]

Indy @ SD +1.5

Indy really should be 5-0 right now but had a few bad calls in the Miami game. The thing is people are realizing the Colts and Luck are good. I've been saying it, but now others found out and the secret is out.

Rivers is having a lot better year. I don't think he ever regressed or sucked, a lot of that was the team around him collapsing. Wisenhunt is an O-line guy, the line is improving and they coaching staff has an emphasis to not turn the ball over. I liked what I saw from rookie Tackle Fluker last week when he body slammed the Raiders pass rusher. I like that mean streak.

I still think Woodhead sucks and Matthews is soft. Woodhead has no business being in the league. Matthews is injury prone. This game looks like a sucker bet now that everybody is learning about the Colts.

[GChild]

C-Gold

Great write ups!

What's your record in NFL so fat this year?

[AliasM]

Good writeups, although I will point out that Jim Caldwell was calling plays for them at the end of last year and his playcalling got them through the playoffs and won the Super Bowl. I find it difficult to really put too much blame on that change.

[C-Gold]

C-Gold

Great write ups!

What's your record in NFL so fat this year?

Week 1: 2-4 stinker
Week 2: 6-2
Week 3: 3-3
Week 4: 2-2
Week 5: 3-1

16-12 for 57%.

[C-Gold]

Good writeups, although I will point out that Jim Caldwell was calling plays for them at the end of last year and his playcalling got them through the playoffs and won the Super Bowl. I find it difficult to really put too much blame on that change.

There is a difference between designing and executing your own offense, and taking what somebody else built, and running that on fumes. Caldwell isn't nearly as good of an OC as Cam Cameron in my opinion.

Barry Switzer won a Super Bowl with Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys team, do you think he could build his own winner? Hell no.

[C-Gold]

Play #1: Tease the Bears with the Houston Texans.

I believe the Bears will win and cover, but I hate betting ATS against a team that is 0-5 ATS. The lines adjusted to understanding the Giants suck, at some point the team will play better than expectations. I still think the Bears win and cover but I'd rather tease it with a Sunday 1 PM game.

[C-Gold]

I am glad I only teased the Bears. Like I said, they are better, they should win, they should even cover the spread but the Giants were 0-6 ATS and the spreads were only getting bigger and bigger. It is tough to always underperform expectations and the Giants played better and still lost.

[C-Gold]

Plays - Dogs dogs dogs, home dogs and more dogs!

Tease: Bears/Texas
Tampa +2.5
Baltimore +3
Cleveland +2.5
Oakland +7.5

- Texans are the 2nd leg of my Bears teaser. They will snap the funk at home.
- GB/Bal is the game everybody will watch at 1. GB without Clay Matthews, close game, winning team might win by 1 or 2, take the home dog getting 3. GB's defense will not be as good, and Baltimore's defense is coming together.
- 2 backup QB's in Tampa, Eagles offense will have to adjust. Phila defense sucks, expect lots of Doug Martin. Bucs defense is actually pretty good, I'll take the home dog here coming off 2 weeks of prep, team really needs a win or coach could be axed after game.
- Lions were awful last week without Calvin Johnson, guy didn't practice, how effective will he be? Browns Defense is good and should hold the Lions in check. Browns offensive line should be able to match up with the Lions D-Line, Browns actually won 3 in a row and are getting points at home. The X factor will be Browns return man. Cleveland has good fans and they haven't had hope in years, I think the Browns win their 4th in a row or lose by 1 or 2. Remember they had a long week of prep.
- Oakland is 3-0-1 with Terrell Pryor this year and have a shot at winning this game outright. Take the live dog getting 7.5 points.

I also might add Dallas later.

[C-Gold]

Week 6 plays
Tease: Bears/Texas
Tampa +2.5
Baltimore +3
Cleveland +2.5
Oakland +7.5

[Huckleberry Pig]

gl gold. love all the write-ups. keep up the good work

[C-Gold]

LATE ADD: Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Steelers over NY Jets.

Steelers hopefully get first win, Geno has trouble with the Blitz.

[austintx05]

Remember you from the covers days. You should do the sucker bet of the week thread.

[jjgold]

What was final verdict here??

Good material like usual