[Ghenghis Kahn]

i've been betting rogue nfl and college football lines on bovada this season and i'm getting killed.

that just means people that are moving the lines aka sharps are losing big time.

is this the year of the squares?

let's face it, i have nothing against brock but even he is having the year of his life so far.

how do we adjust to this madness?

what say you?

[jayc88]

Why adjust ?
If you are betting off numbers you will win in the long run.

[Nick Papageorgio]

Very early seasons, sharps losing, public losing, books happy to rake juice.

[Smoke]

Not another one of these threads again

[Louisvillekid1]

Who knows, we will never be fully exposed to this info.

I'm up over 10 units in NCAAF, & down a lil less than 2 units in NFL.

Squares will give it back even if they are winning.

Business as usual

[broadway6]

Sharps = people who bet winners.

[ChalkyDog]

Grabbing points when they're offered to the home team.

Trying to avoid betting road teams, especially now that conference play has started.

Grabbing points in the NFL, where teams have made it a "trend" to play close games.

As for Brock, if you (or he for that matter) just grabbed the points on the other side of his huge ML plays - you'd probably be doing alright.

And for fukk sakes, teasers in the NFL.

[Louisvillekid1]

Like CHalky touched on

Books make their money during conference play in NCAAF/NCAABB

They will give it all back

[jjgold]

yes

squares winning

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Grabbing points when they're offered to the home team.

Trying to avoid betting road teams, especially now that conference play has started.

Grabbing points in the NFL, where teams have made it a "trend" to play close games.

As for Brock, if you (or he for that matter) just grabbed the points on the other side of his huge ML plays - you'd probably be doing alright.

And for fukk sakes, teasers in the NFL.

was never a teasers guy.

are the wong teasers hitting this year?

aren't the books trying to prevent wong teasers?

[billysink]

When you are dealing with a short season the want is always to play right out of the gate. There is no depth or substance to any statistical value until week 4.

If any of you are familiar with Sagarin you are familiar with the term Bayesian. It is used to describe an interpretation of probability with a formulation for uncertainty. This is used until teams are interconnected and the reliance of the weighted starting logic is removed.

In short it has a lot of weight on the past and little reliance on the calculable predictive. Again because there is little depth to that calculation.

That is also how your mind works. You place a lot of value on your snapshot of what took place last year and not enough on what you have seen today.

Until that bridge is spanned you are constantly struggling to make an informed decision. It is human nature.

In plain English and fukk all the horse shit, the first four weeks of NFL and college football is a fukkin clusterfukk better left alone. Mind you there are some whose minds and spreadsheets can embrace a blank slate from the get go and who quantify sides and totals based solely on what they have seen in the present. Those guys have success now and get killed late, a backwards application of logic.

I am too fukkin stupid to play early and too dumb to last long. Weeks 5 though 14 with random spot plays on either side are all my pea brain can make sense of. I do pretty well with that set of limitations and flounder if I try to stretch or jump the gun.

Its a grind folks. Don't make it harder than it has to be.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Like CHalky touched on

Books make their money during conference play in NCAAF/NCAABB

They will give it all back

so during conference what's the right play?

[Ghenghis Kahn]

When you are dealing with a short season the want is always to play right out of the gate. There is no depth or substance to any statistical value until week 4.

If any of you are familiar with Sagarin you are familiar with the term Bayesian. It is used to describe an interpretation of probability with a formulation for uncertainty. This is used until teams are interconnected and the reliance of the weighted starting logic is removed.

In short it has a lot of weight on the past and little reliance on the calculable predictive. Again because there is little depth to that calculation.

That is also how your mind works. You place a lot of value on your snapshot of what took place last year and not enough on what you have seen today.

Until that bridge is spanned you are constantly struggling to make an informed decision. It is human nature.

In plain English and fukk all the horse shit, the first four weeks of NFL and college football is a fukkin clusterfukk better left alone. Mind you there are some whose minds and spreadsheets can embrace a blank slate from the get go and who quantify sides and totals based solely on what they have seen in the present. Those guys have success now and get killed late, a backwards application of logic.

I am too fukkin stupid to play early and too dumb to last long. Weeks 5 though 14 with random spot plays on either side are all my pea brain can make sense of. I do pretty well with that set of limitations and flounder if I try to stretch or jump the gun.

Its a grind folks. Don't make it harder than it has to be.

don't you think the lines get sharper as the season progresses?

i know you've mentioned before about not playing the first 4 weeks but people that move the lines must know something that regular joe doesn't know, no?

[ChalkyDog]

so during conference what's the right play?

Lean home team, unless something jumps off the page.

That's been the rule for all conference matchups since I've been playing.

Applies to both major sports.

[ChalkyDog]

don't you think the lines get sharper as the season progresses?

i know you've mentioned before about not playing the first 4 weeks but people that move the lines must know something that regular joe doesn't know, no?

It's the number game. People who cap using numbers (myself included), don't get reliable data sets until at least week 4. Until then it's "guessing". Only way to make sense of the numbers before week 4 is to include SOS, but then you're stuck with limited data because there are a lot of uneven matchups the first few weeks.

As a result, Vegas has the same issue, and the lines sharpen up at the same time and for the same reason people start betting at week 4.

As a general rule, my little knowledge drop - I backed mid-majors the first few weeks, because they are always undervalued and you don't really get another shot at that type of matchup the rest of the year. Once that dries up, I switch to backing home teams in conference play.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

yeah i would think vegas has people that are better at math than us though.

then again, i could be wrong since their main objective is not to put up sharp numbers but numbers that will create equal action.

[billysink]

don't you think the lines get sharper as the season progresses?

i know you've mentioned before about not playing the first 4 weeks but people that move the lines must know something that regular joe doesn't know, no?

I really approach this a lot differently than most. If I am gonna make a play it is going to be because it is a simple calculation of value. I do not get caught up in the 'sharp vs. square" approach. Either there is value or there is none. If there is any gray area in my mind I walk away. I have used the same systematic approach, same calculations for years. They get a weighting tweak every year based on events on field. The spreadsheet will spit me out let's say 20-30 plays a week and I run them through the same 5 filters I have used forever.

I don't worry about what the books know, I concentrate on what I know.

[billysink]

This is also why I like the game of baseball so much. You can be pure without a fukkin calculator. Either you know the game or you don't. Baseball is a beautiful thing.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i agree, baseball is not my favorite sport but i prefer betting bases.

also more games mean more options...

[Louisvillekid1]

When you are dealing with a short season the want is always to play right out of the gate. There is no depth or substance to any statistical value until week 4.

If any of you are familiar with Sagarin you are familiar with the term Bayesian. It is used to describe an interpretation of probability with a formulation for uncertainty. This is used until teams are interconnected and the reliance of the weighted starting logic is removed.

In short it has a lot of weight on the past and little reliance on the calculable predictive. Again because there is little depth to that calculation.

That is also how your mind works. You place a lot of value on your snapshot of what took place last year and not enough on what you have seen today.

Until that bridge is spanned you are constantly struggling to make an informed decision. It is human nature.

In plain English and fukk all the horse shit, the first four weeks of NFL and college football is a fukkin clusterfukk better left alone. Mind you there are some whose minds and spreadsheets can embrace a blank slate from the get go and who quantify sides and totals based solely on what they have seen in the present. Those guys have success now and get killed late, a backwards application of logic.

I am too fukkin stupid to play early and too dumb to last long. Weeks 5 though 14 with random spot plays on either side are all my pea brain can make sense of. I do pretty well with that set of limitations and flounder if I try to stretch or jump the gun.

Its a grind folks. Don't make it harder than it has to be.

Going broke between you taking me to school and drinker cracking me the fukk up.

1 token at a time

[billysink]

Going broke between you taking me to school and drinker cracking me the fukk up.

1 token at a time

buyin first round anyway.

Get a fukkin double

[k13]

I doubt in the NFL, public has been getting killed on a lot of games.

Too busy right now but I'll run some numbers later.