1. #1
    wagerjunkie
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    a fresh Cueto going tonight going up against dead arm Liriano - game break down/pick

    Liriano is up around 160 innings pitch. a total he has not reached since 2010.

    despite all of that he has still been rock solid with an FIP of 2.92, lower than his ERA of 3.02, has an outstanding ground ball rate of 50%. while striking out nearly 9.11 per 9 innings.

    here is where the concern is. he is walking almost 4 batters per nine on the year, now that is just on the year. You can't stress enough in MLB, on pitchers, "stress pitches" (no pun intended) which he will be throwing a ton tonight. The Reds are great at working deep counts and fouling pitches off, this could really take its toll on Liriano whos arm quite possibly could be in deep water and not sure of what he's going to get out of it, now you add on the pressure situation of so many stress pitches. and you on the fact hes walked 8 hitters in his last 3 starts, it becomes even more concerning.

    he's been flirting with disaster all year long with a 78% strand rate, .290 BABIP and a HUGE 25% LD%. so while his surface stats look GREAT...when u look deeper he certainly can be had.

    I'm going with the fresher arm in Cueto and the more experienced ball club in the Reds who will not let the pressure mount on the them and take over ABs, like the young Pirates will. When you are as young as the Pirates are, in the post season, more often not, u need to lose first to learn how to win. the Reds have been here before and that is huge advantage. I expect the Pirates to press in the batters box and Cueto to get ahead in the count early and put guys away while Liriano is consistenly working deep counts, struggling to put hitters away.

    that being the difference in the game. It's been a great year for Pittsburgh but comes to an end tonight. Reds +129
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  2. #2
    jessetk313
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    with you bro on Reds...but it could go either way. Hopefully we come out on top bro. BOL

  3. #3
    Louisvillekid1
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    On reds as well

  4. #4
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    was gonna go with pitt but how can you pass up 130+ on the reds? hoping it gets to 140.

  5. #5
    Fernburn74
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    Pirates win tonight sorry bud!!!

    pirates -140.
    Pirates/reds no score in first inning!
    pirates -1.5 +155

    Goodnight Irene!!!!!

  6. #6
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    one thing though, your angle of liriano having a dead arm is just wrong.

    he was virtually unhittable in his last game vs the reds...

  7. #7
    GimpedMaster
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    Momentum.

    How many times have we seen wild card teams who were on fire at the end of the year carry it into the playoffs and burn the opposition with a vengeance?

    Reds have lost 5 in a row.

    Pirates have won 3 in a row, and 5 of their last 6.

    Both pitchers are great, no disputing that from either end. I think you have to look at the bigger picture than just pitcher/lineup matchups this year.

    History tells us playoff baseball is all about momentum, and the Pirates have it.

  8. #8
    wagerjunkie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghenghis Kahn View Post
    one thing though, your angle of liriano having a dead arm is just wrong.

    he was virtually unhittable in his last game vs the reds...
    I'm just saying he is in uncharted waters.

    hasn't pitched this many innings since 2010 and now he is going to be throwing a ton of stress pitches.

    again IMO since the Reds just saw him, that gives them even more of an advantage. BOL>.

  9. #9
    wagerjunkie
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    Quote Originally Posted by GimpedMaster View Post
    Momentum.

    How many times have we seen wild card teams who were on fire at the end of the year carry it into the playoffs and burn the opposition with a vengeance?

    Reds have lost 5 in a row.

    Pirates have won 3 in a row, and 5 of their last 6.

    Both pitchers are great, no disputing that from either end. I think you have to look at the bigger picture than just pitcher/lineup matchups this year.

    History tells us playoff baseball is all about momentum, and the Pirates have it.
    true.

    but I can't pass up these odds knowing that these Pirates rookies could freeze up and press in the box. and the stuff I just posted about Liriano.

    one things for sure, one of us will cash! BOL>

  10. #10
    Ra77er
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    Rangers really proved the uncle mo theory

  11. #11
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    only thing that's concerning is they're playing at pnc park.

    that place gets rowdy. big home field advantage.

  12. #12
    jjgold
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    Wager chunky I do not know what you would do without gambling it controls your life I never saw a guy gamble day and night I am taking the home team angle

  13. #13
    konck
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    Im going with the Plus money Reds

  14. #14
    wagerjunkie
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Wager chunky I do not know what you would do without gambling it controls your life I never saw a guy gamble day and night I am taking the home team angle
    lol ok

    I am spot bettor Corbin. I don't bet more than 2-3 games a day.

  15. #15
    wagerjunkie
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    and Corbin, you once created a thread and said I was the best capper on the forum at one time. so stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

    (not under this handle)

  16. #16
    jessetk313
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    I know it is the playoffs but the Reds are actually 4-5 at PNC park this year. Not too bad against a team that is 49-31 overall at home. The last time these two met in PNC park a few weeks ago the Reds took two of three and lit up the Pirates in the Sunday finale. The best thing for the Reds right now may be getting away from home after losing 2 of 3 to the Mets and being swept by the Buccos.

  17. #17
    TonyTall
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    liriano likely to take an extra dose of amphetamine tonight. that will power him thru. love the under here

  18. #18
    face
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    wager good write up, tailing

  19. #19
    innovation
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    I'll take the dead arm pitcher over the dead brain manager

    Bucco's send Reds to 2-8 last ten in post season.

    Pirates ML

  20. #20
    TonyTall
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    ya i like the write up as well. im sold on cueto now

    cin first 5 +115


  21. #21
    wagerjunkie
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    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTall View Post
    liriano likely to take an extra dose of amphetamine tonight. that will power him thru. love the under here
    i like the first five UNDER but not at 3. I think odds makers have it pegged perfectly.

  22. #22
    freakydave
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    Liriano has made 4 starts vs cincy this season & is 0-3 giving up 10er's in 24 ip holding the reds to .193 BA--while the Bucs may win tonight I can find no reason back them.

  23. #23
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    might just pass up the side and go with over 3 -105 1st 5

  24. #24
    InTheDrink
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    fyi cueto has pitched 12 innings since june 29

    this "fresh" idea isnt right...this is like spring training for him so he wont pitch past 6 tonight

    then again its probably not an issue for either pitcher since this is an elimination game....every healthy arm will be ready to go so the starters could get yanked even after say one run over like five innings

    im taking pirates here but this is as toss up as you get here

  25. #25
    pattymayo
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    dead arm Liriano? what the hell are u smoking kid.

    I'd be a lot more concerned with the fact that this big bad Reds offense has scored 11 runs in their final 6 games to end the year.

    Liriano 8-1 with a sub 2 era at home this year. Guy is making $1M this year, he's 29 and essentially pitching for the big bucks here.

    Cueto (like mentioned) has pitched 12 innings since the end of June, and faced Houston and NYM in his two starts.

  26. #26
    wagerjunkie
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    Quote Originally Posted by pattymayo View Post
    dead arm Liriano? what the hell are u smoking kid.

    I'd be a lot more concerned with the fact that this big bad Reds offense has scored 11 runs in their final 6 games to end the year.

    Liriano 8-1 with a sub 2 era at home this year. Guy is making $1M this year, he's 29 and essentially pitching for the big bucks here.

    Cueto (like mentioned) has pitched 12 innings since the end of June, and faced Houston and NYM in his two starts.
    like I mentioned in post #14, the thread title is a little misleading.. its more about he has thrown more innings than he ever has since 2010 and the concern of how many batters he has walked over his last 3 starts and how the Reds top 3 work deep counts. Stress pitches ect.

  27. #27
    wagerjunkie
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    Quote Originally Posted by pattymayo View Post
    dead arm Liriano? what the hell are u smoking kid.

    I'd be a lot more concerned with the fact that this big bad Reds offense has scored 11 runs in their final 6 games to end the year.

    Liriano 8-1 with a sub 2 era at home this year. Guy is making $1M this year, he's 29 and essentially pitching for the big bucks here.

    Cueto (like mentioned) has pitched 12 innings since the end of June, and faced Houston and NYM in his two starts.
    Cueto will be backed by an array of arms in the Reds bullpen that are deadly. not worried about that. this is one time Dusty Baker is not going to run his starter into the ground.

  28. #28
    wagerjunkie
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    you's have all made very valid points which I agree with, not saying any one is wrong.

    appreciate the feed back.

  29. #29
    bondoc.co
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    over

  30. #30
    wagerjunkie
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    adding

    Shin Soo Choo TB over Starling Marte +100

    Choo has seen Liriano 19 times, hitting .263 off him with 2 rib eyes.

    Marte has never seen Cueto before. (advantage pitcher) and to Choo who has had way more looks at Liriano. can't pass it up at even money.

  31. #31
    wagerjunkie
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    even tho it looks like Liriano is gonna breeze through this first i like what I see.

    he is leaving a ton of balls up in the zone, if he doesn't stay below the knees, and as the game goes along and he tires, the ball will elevate even more.

    has the change up working nasty tho

  32. #32
    pimike
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    Quote Originally Posted by wagerjunkie View Post
    even tho it looks like Liriano is gonna breeze through this first i like what I see.

    he is leaving a ton of balls up in the zone, if he doesn't stay below the knees, and as the game goes along and he tires, the ball will elevate even more.

    has the change up working nasty tho
    ................

  33. #33
    CarpeDime
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    great thread wagerjunkie

    im on reds ff +.5 -140

    looks like im gonna need 5 goose eggs from cueto

    could get it

  34. #34
    wagerjunkie
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarpeDime View Post
    great thread wagerjunkie

    im on reds ff +.5 -140

    looks like im gonna need 5 goose eggs from cueto

    could get it
    we'll see. like I said that first inning was bit deceiving, Liriano was elevating a ton of balls.

    love this atmosphere. fkn post season baseball. doesn't get any better.

  35. #35
    InTheDrink
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    Quote Originally Posted by wagerjunkie View Post
    we'll see. like I said that first inning was bit deceiving, Liriano was elevating a ton of balls.

    love this atmosphere. fkn post season baseball. doesn't get any better.

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