[C-Gold]

6-2 two weeks ago
3-3 last week on plays, but the leans were hot.

KC Chiefs +3.5 WIN
Chiefs/Phila Over 50.5 LOSS
TB/Pats UNDER 44.5 WIN
Giants +1.5 LOSS
Packers -2.5 LOSS
Denver -14.5 WIN
3-3


Giants and Packers were two extremely public plays that I stuck with. Giants got their ass beat but I felt like I was robbed in the Packers game. That challenge that reversed the 1st down at the end of the game before the 4th and 1 fumble was an awful call. It was very hard to tell exactly when his knee was down, you can argue the ball should have been moved back a tiny bit but a 1/2 yard? No way. That was Mike Carey hooking a brotha Marvin Lewis up. I felt like my wins were pretty easy but losing that Packers game was hard to take. The leans did well but there is so little edge in betting these NFL games. Look at how many games come down to the last possession. I was thinking of playing Miami, and I didn't feel like sweating that one out, especially when Atlanta outplayed them for much of the game.


Thurs
San Fran @ Rams +3

Issues
The 49ers can't start 1-3 right???
The 49ers have 10 points in their last 2 games, they have to play better.
49ers injuries on defense, Aldon Smith out, Willis won't play, Asomugha 50/50, Bowman
Vernon Davis questionable

Rams beat last year's better 49ers team at home and tied on road (were robbed and really should have won)
Rams Blown out last week, were getting blown out 2 weeks ago but made it respectable
Rams receivers are very raw
Rams 0-3 ATS

It is a known fact the 49ers have the best offensive line in football, but it doesn't look like it. If I didn't know those guys ahead of time I wouldn't say they look like the best line in football. They also have a tough task this week against Quinn and Long.

I think everybody is going to ignore the injuries play the 49ers because of what they did last year - niners can't start 1-3 will be the public's rally cry. The Rams are kind of an unknown team to the public. I think they are better than people think and they did well vs the 49ers last year. I think Bradford has looked decent in what I've seen this year. The books wouldn't just give this away right? Well it is a Thursday night game, maybe the 49ers do come out and play better and win this game. The upside to the books is that the public will give all their winnings back on Sunday.

I am going to just watch this game without any action.

[C-Gold]

Baltimore @ Buffalo +3.5

Both teams have a lot of injuries a lot of questionable guys. I am going to stay away and not play this game. If I had to predict I'd take the Ravens but they still are meshing together that new defense and they have failed on the road before. I am not impressed by EJ Manuel, his stats over represent how he's played. Lots of short passes to RB's TE's and screens. The Ravens really should eat him up but that young defense is trying to communicate and mesh.

Buff has a good D-Line but the Ravens have a good O-line. I just don't trust the Ravens in this game and I don't like the hook. Maybe the Ravens win by 3? No play.

[C-Gold]

Arizona @ Tampa -3

Josh Freeman had another game with under 50% completion percentage. He's about to go on the Byron Leftwich/Jason Campbell failed 1st round pick non running QB Backup NFL circuit. He can be late for all the meetings he wants when he's a backup QB to a guy who can actually read a defense.

I played the Tampa Under last week and it might be a smart thing to do again but the total is set at 40.5. Yes the game is on grass, the defenses have talent and the offenses stink but the game is still in Tampa and the weather will be warm and points could be scored. No on the total.

Arizona is traveling through all those time zones. The Bucs kept it close with the Saints. No play for me. Neither of these teams really interest me.

[C-Gold]

Pittsburgh vs Minnesota +1.5 from London

Before the season started I predicted the Vikings, who made the playoffs last year would go 4-12 this year. It might not happen but Leslie Frazier should be fired. He reached for Christian Ponder big time and rather than making a PC statement about how happy they were to land a guy of his caliber, he reached again, saying that Ponder was the #1 QB on their entire board. This for a guy who many projected to go in round 2 or round 3. Frazier said he was better than guys like Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Kapernick, Andy Dalton. Frazier isn't a terribly bright guy, he's quiet, he's not a leader, he's like a poorer version of Tony Dungy only he doesn't have Peyton Manning or 9 pro bowlers on defense. He should be fired and I'd love to fade Christian Ponder who is a backup QB in the NFL. It is a shame that Adrian Peterson, one of the best rb's ever is wasting away with no QB and no coach. Adrian Peterson is like this generation's Barry Sanders.

The Steelers haven't looked good on offense but their O-Line showed a little signs of life and people forget how good Big Ben is. He is still one of the 5-10 best QB's in the game and I believe only 1 active QB has more rings than him. If Brian Hoyer could put up 330 yards and 3 TD last week then Big Ben could put up passing yards again, and he in fact had 400 yards vs Chicago last week.

I like the Steelers here laying a point and I will probably play then. The Steelers will probably have more fans at the game, and I feel like they are more used to playing on bigger games like MNF or this game in another country. I like the Steelers here.

[Vinnie Paz]

Anything grab your eye yet? Played sd/dal over 45.5 on Sunday, see it at 47 now. Wouldn't mind hearing your take on it. Like san Diego to take this too.

[C-Gold]

Giants @ KC -4

Giants had one of the worst offensive performances I have seen in years last week. I think they had something like 13 of their first 24 plays go for 0 or negative yardage. 1st down they get stuffed and lose 2 yards. 2nd down Eli gets sacked. 3rd down Eli gets sacked. The offense was moving backwards. I said I wanted to play the Panthers D at home but I thought the Giants would respond.

The Giants have another hard task this week against a solid defense in KC. This game will probably more resemble the Dallas game where Romo got nothing from the running game and had to beat the Chiefs by himself throwing the ball to Dez all game. The Cowboys really should have won that game.

I am not ready to stick a fork in the Giants. I don't know what their deal was last week but I think they will play a lot better this week.

With that said,
the Chiefs get extra days to prep
Andy Reid has been coaching against these Giants for a decade, he knows their personel
Alex Smith doesn't ever throw the ball into coverage, less risk/less reward but no turnovers, Eli is the polar opposite.

Chiefs much more likely to win the turnover battle. Chiefs should shut down the Giants run game, and then unleash Houston and pass rushers on Eli. After watching last week the Chiefs should win and cover but something tells me the Giants bounce back and play a lot better. Remember, they don't have to win, they are getting 4 points here. The NFL is full of surprises and the Giants have been known to win on the road and win when nobody expects them to.

[C-Gold]

Indy @ Jacksonville +9.5

I picked Indy to the playoffs this year and I think Andrew Luck is the best young QB in the game. I think the Colts are an underrated team, they were 11-5 ATS last year and they are still underrated this year. Luck doesn't get 1/16th the press that Scam Newton, RGKNEE, RW, or Kaepernick get but Luck is not only the best right now, but he has the most potential. You take away the zone read and those guys haven't done very well as pocket passers. Luck took a 2 win team to the playoffs. Yes he threw more picks last year but he learned, and he didn't get all those cheap completions based off the zone read. I am telling you right now that he looks as comfortable in the pocket as the top 5 to 10 QB's in the league. Look at Geno Smith or Mike Vick in the pocket and then look at Luck. There is no comparison at all. He's already one of the better QB's in the game.

With that said Jacksonville has 3 great things going for it.
1. Colts had a signature blowout victory last week.
2. Colts are dogs that won outright that are favored the following week.
3. Jags will be double digit home dogs.

Lay off the this game but look to play the Colts in the future.

[C-Gold]

Seattle @ Houston +3

Seattle is coming off of 2 blowouts. ESPN has already crowned their asses. Russell Wilson has not been impressive thus far. Houston is a playoff team at home getting 3.

This game will be more like the Seattle/Carolina game where the Panthers should have won then be more like the Hawks/Jags game that wasn't even really a contest.

I want to see how the money flows in this game. If all the squares are taking the Hawks, which I think WILL happen, then I could see myself playing Houston. They are getting 3 at home and very much a live home dog.

[C-Gold]

Bengals @ Browns +4.5
I could see this line moving up to Browns +6. The Browns lost on the road to the Ravens 14-6, they lost to Miami 10-23. I actually think about the Under with two defensive teams with shaky offenses but the total is only 42.

With that said who starts, Hoyer or Weeden? Hoyer shocked people last week but the guy still had 3 turnovers and turnovers lead to easy points.

I'd lean the Bengals here but this is still a divisional game that should be lower scoring. I don't want to lay the 4.5-6 points on the Bengals who aren't playing up to their potential.

This game is a no play for me.

[C-Gold]

Bears @ Lions -2.5

I don't really see the Bears at a 3-0 team but they did beat the Bengals and they won @ Pitt on MNF. The Bears beat the Lions twice last year and won 9 of the last 10 against the Lions. Bears offensive line looks massively improved and that helps their entire team including their QB.

I don't like Jim Schwartz. I never liked a wimpy coach pretending to play the tough guy. I wish Jim Harbaugh kicked his ass last year. I think the Lions will fail to make the playoffs again and Schwartz will get fired at the end of the year. I am still not a believer in Matt Stafford.

I'd rather take the Bears here but do I like them enough to play them?

[C-Gold]

Jets @ Titans -4

As I've been saying for weeks. The public and ESPN and the pundits look at the Jets and see a crappy QB with a weak receiver corp and assume the Jets are pure crap. What they don't see is the solid defense and the solid offensive line. The Jets are actually 3-0 ATS right now because of their offensive line and defense. Vladimir Ducasse handled Vince Wilfork in week 2. D'Brick is one of the better LT's in the game. Nick Mangold IS the best center in the game. Rex Ryan knows he's about to get fired this year, so it is amazing how some guys respond to that and some guys quit. Rex is a good coach. If he gets fired he's a DC for a year or two and then he gets another coaching job.

I'd look at the under in this game but it's already set low at 39 points.

Titans won 2 games and lost their other one to Houston in OT. I want to watch more of them on tape this week. Their offensive line should be a lot better this year.

[C-Gold]

Phila @ Denver -10.5

Denver has put up 37, 41 and 49 points this year. Now they face the swiss cheese Eagles defense and they will probably run more plays than usual. Manning completed almost every single pass last week and had a few drops. It was amazing. Guys can't even do that in practice.

This is the 4:25 game everybody will watch. I think Denver routes the Eagles. No chance Vick can keep up in the scoring with Manning. Vick might get some Tds but he's going to turn the ball over as well like he always does. DRC is a ball hawking corner. Woodyard hits hard. The Denver pass rush might not be that great but they have big guys that get in your face, exactly what annoys Vick and his poor pocket awareness.

I am biased to play overs in every Eagles game and every Denver game. The over is 57 but if Denver puts up 40+ points, don't you think the Eagles will put up 20 points?

I like Denver and the over here.

Last week I was not scared to lay the 14.5 with Manning. He's the kind of perfectionist that is the best guy to play points with on big spreads. He wants to score every time. He isn't a QB, he is a coach, and he wants to be perfect every time. Practice doesn't make perfect, perfect practice makes perfect. He was practicing against the Raiders last night.

Denver -10.5
OVER 57

I like them both but I like Denver -10.5 more.

[C-Gold]

Dallas @ SD +2

I'd lean Dallas and the Over here.

Cowboys defense has stopped the run but they were also facing the Giants who'se offensive line has been a mess and the Rams who haven't run the ball this year. I am not a big fan of always running the cover 2. I am not sold on the Dallas D and I am not big Kiffen fan.

With that said Rivers has been very accurate this year.
Dallas's o-line has taken a step forward and improved this year.
SD's defense is supposed to be alright.
Huge coaching error at the end of the game to leave a CB 1 on 1 at the end of the game to give up the game losing TD.

I picked Dallas to make the playoffs this year and they have to win some games like this. I'd lean Cowboys and the over. Not sure what I will be playing.

[C-Gold]

Redskins @ Raiders +3.5

Before the season started the Redskins were talking about how great RG3 was. Last year they were comparing him to Aaron Rodgers on the radio and saying that he was an entirely new prototype of a QB.

THIS week, right now, Doc Walker and the Washington faithful are talking about how "this isn't a gimme game, the Raiders are a good team".

It goes from RG SHEET is a black Aaron Rodgers with extra speed to the idiots talking about how the Raiders are a good team and this isn't an easy win. Is that it Redskins fans?


People are learning who the real RG3 was.
Last year:
He's black and he's not a thug, he speaks well
He is super fast
He is super fast but he can be a QB too.

Now he's arrogant, selfish and a talker. He has to get the last word in. He has to say something intelligent to the press. He just loves to hear himself talk. He thinks talking to the media is going to make his stock go up, but they are going to hold every word against him, and he just looks worse and worse when the team keeps losing. A veteran on the Redskins like London Fletcher just needs to grab this guy and shut his trap. It seems like there is a rift between him and the Shannihans but he best better get along with them because he worked well in their schemes last year, and he has done nothing in the more conventional schemes he's been in this year.

He's still a running QB. You take away his legs and he's Rex Grossman. The guy had great stats last year because of the easy passes off of the zone read. You take that away and he's nothing special at all.

In fact it is very likely that RG3 had his best statistical season ever LAST year. I'd argue the chances of that being true are above 50%. A normal QB will usually have his worst year in year 1 and get better over time. Running QB's have never really progressed over time and many have actually regressed over time as they get slower with age and defenses figure out their tendencies.

One more thing, Mobile QB's tend to be coach killers. The media always takes the side of the running QB. THEY CAN NEVER EVER FAIL. Whenever they fail it is always the offensive line's fault, the receivers fault, the defense's fault or the coach's fault. ESPN always takes the QB's side and they can never do anything wrong. For that reason they have been coach killers and it looks like the Shannihans are getting killed. Kyle Shannihan got attacked for not playing Mcnabb, and now they are both getting it from the RG3 faithful.

Enough on Washington. Their defense sucks and RG3 looks highly overrated right now.

I liked what I saw from Terrell Pryor. He worked fast. He didn't hold onto the ball forever. He made some good reads. He's big, he can move around. I was impressed with him against Denver. The best part was the fact that he got rid of the ball. He had a good internal clock in his head.

Not sure what to do with this game, but if the Raiders get good odds they might be an interesting home dog.

[C-Gold]

New England @ Atlanta -2

Matt Ryan always wins at home.
Patriots WRs have been a mess
Patriots don't look like a good 3-0 team, this is their hardest game yet

Everybody already knows all that. I think one thing to think about is that Atlanta's secondary looks a lot better this year. You factor that in PLUS the crappy Patriots receivers and I like that edge.

Patriots have only scored 23, 10, and 23. Part of that is the fact that they didn't have to score. They were playing Marty Ball against Geno Smith and they had no problem punting to him late in the Jets game because they felt like he realistically had no chance to score. I am sure they could have scored more than 23 against Tampa but again, Josh Freeman completing under 50% of his passes was no threat.

You'd think the total might be too high based on that but I think Atlanta will get their points and New England will too. The total seems right but I like the Atlanta side better. I might actually play that too.

[C-Gold]

Miami @ New Orleans -6.5

I think Miami was an odd season win total this year. I think it was 8.5 or so and it was heavily juiced. Most people myself included didn't buy into the hype of signing Mike Wallace and Ellerby but some people in Vegas did like it and the Fins have been winning. I think they got lucky in the Indy game and should have lost. I am still not buying Tannehill for anything more than a game manager. I believe in the defense but Cameron Wake will miss 2-3 games.

Saints WR play has been spotty but I expect them to win this game. Everything is magnified on MNF and they probably cover the spread too. Maybe Miami gets a statement win but I just see the Saints winning at home here. They beat Atlanta at home by 6 and now they have an out of division opponent with a weaker offense? I think the Saints win and cover but if I play this it is probably depending on how the Sunday games go.

[C-Gold]

Stronger leans
Pittsburgh -1
Denver -10.5 best bet
Denver/Eagles over 57
Atlanta -2


weaker leans
Dallas -2
Houston +3 - not sure I will play it, want to see the money flow
Bears +2.5
New Orleans -6.5
Maybe the Giants if everybody is on KC, maybe Raiders if everybody on Wash

[C-Gold]

Stronger leans
Pittsburgh -1
Denver -10.5 best bet
Denver/Eagles over 57
Atlanta -2


weaker leans
Dallas -2
Houston +3 - not sure I will play it, want to see the money flow
Bears +2.5
New Orleans -6.5
Maybe the Giants if everybody is on KC, maybe Raiders if everybody on Wash

On the strong leans.

[jjgold]

good analysis C-Gold

[C-Gold]

good analysis C-Gold

Thanks boss. I should have played some of those unders like the Bucs.

[jjgold]

not bad so far C-Gold

the weaker leans were not as good

[Fabiodog]

Good work on Denver love the. Write ups

[C-Gold]

not bad so far C-Gold

the weaker leans were not as good

Yeah glad I stayed off them. I cut my picks this week down to my 4 best. Denver was easyyyyyyyyyyy money.

[C-Gold]

Good work on Denver love the. Write ups

Hopefully ATL wins tonight and I am 3-1.

[jjgold]

Atlanta will win

I am not even watching game and have it marked a win

[C-Gold]

Atlanta will win

I am not even watching game and have it marked a win

Because C-Gold said so.

[NYSportsGuy210]

You've been solid so far through 4 weeks....gonna give credit where credit is due.

[Sarunas]

is good informations! I make read in the futures.