1. 09-24-13 03:08 PM #36
    tatddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Ain't a fukkin thing discussed here matters one stikky shit if you can't handicap a game right unless you have a very, very, very large bankroll.

    See a lot of guys batting the fukk out of their calculator for 4 bucks and change.

    Most fukks in here just talkin about it because they feel like they matter.


    They don't
    Billy what's your grey hair percentage? You have a lot of Larry David in you. And I say that affectionately.
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  2. 09-24-13 03:13 PM #37
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by tatddy View Post
    Billy what's your grey hair percentage? You have a lot of Larry David in you. And I say that affectionately.
    1.4782398%

    I am a mathematician.

    I ain't roundin shit.
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  3. 09-24-13 03:23 PM #38
    BigDeem5
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    Sinker, give me a fuking winner
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  4. 09-24-13 03:28 PM #39
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDeem5 View Post
    Sinker, give me a fuking winner
    I got nothin pal until at least Thursday after practice reports and college wraps

    Nice hit last nite though.

    Don't gotta play everyday Grasshopper.
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  5. 09-24-13 03:38 PM #40
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDeem5 View Post
    It is -EV to place parlays, teasers, and get worst price.

    I could go into statistics but would take too long.

    It is -EV to bet at 10% juice unless you can hit 53%. Simple
    - ev to bet a parlay?

    what if it's a ML parlay that pays even money and both teams win but both fail to cover the spread?
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  6. 09-24-13 03:40 PM #41
    BigDeem5
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    I got nothin pal until at least Thursday after practice reports and college wraps

    Nice hit last nite though.

    Don't gotta play everyday Grasshopper.
    "No More Than 4u in Play per day"
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  7. 09-24-13 03:41 PM #42
    daneblazer
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    Just like the word "variance" people throw a term around without knowing what it means.
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  8. 09-24-13 03:44 PM #43
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by daneblazer View Post
    Just like the word "variance" people throw a term around without knowing what it means.
    enlighten us so we are all on the same page
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  9. 09-24-13 03:47 PM #44
    billysink
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    Most profitable player I have ever met still thinks correlated is a fukkin type of cardboard.
    Points Awarded:

    JR007 gave billysink 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  10. 09-24-13 04:06 PM #45
    daneblazer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    enlighten us so we are all on the same page
    Variance is the difference between your short term results and long term expectations.

    It's also often difficult to recognize. What I meant by the comment is that when we lose, a lot of people tend to shrug it off as variance aka "just on a bad run". Often times, it's not really variance why we lost, but mistakes we made along the way. It's a lot easier to just say we lost because of variance or blame something else than to look in the mirror, analyze what you're doing, and realize something you're doing is wrong. When we win due to some variance we rarely ever credit variance, we credit something we did.
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  11. 09-24-13 04:31 PM #46
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Guys if you take Detroit +2.5 +105 that is +EV


    Worst line to ever take in football is +2.5
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  12. 09-24-13 04:37 PM #47
    Deuce
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post


    Worst line to ever take in football is +2.5
    There is no juice if you win.
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  13. 09-24-13 04:41 PM #48
    The Kraken
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    Guys in this thread get it. No need to preach to the choir. This is a winners only thread.
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  14. 09-24-13 04:46 PM #49
    jjgold
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    You can bet a game -330 if you win the bet there is no juice

    Not hard to figure out
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  15. 09-24-13 04:47 PM #50
    Sam Odom
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    jj , just think if you had pulled the trigger on Denver ML last night...

    ONE GRAND baby , no vig
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  16. 09-24-13 04:51 PM #51
    jjgold
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    Sammy I made a massive blunder

    Nerves set in
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  17. 09-24-13 04:57 PM #52
    Louisvillekid1
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    You can bet a game -330 if you win the bet there is no juice

    Not hard to figure out
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  18. 09-24-13 05:05 PM #53
    Darkside Magick
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    You can bet a game -330 if you win the bet there is no juice


    Not hard to figure out
    Lmaoooo

    Even if you won the -330 bet you still paid vig because you got $100 and lost $230 to vig
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  19. 09-24-13 05:16 PM #54
    jjgold
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    Some of you guys have no clue

    I do not want to show you up though because I am a good guy

    KId ket me teach you
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  20. 09-24-13 05:29 PM #55
    yak merchant
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    I am officially dumber now.
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  21. 09-25-13 06:29 PM #56
    KKoz9
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    I think this is +EV


    226635_202945439875228_1352511428_n.jpg
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  22. 09-25-13 07:07 PM #57
    bubblebuttluv
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    I took statistics too, Archie.

    I hated statistics class, Archie.

    I just got finished taking business statistics this previous summer and I thought I would die of boredom.

    I don't mention -EV or +EV in my thread, so I don't have to talk statistics.
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  23. 09-25-13 09:12 PM #58
    Cookie Monster
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    Talking about expected value on this forum is -EV
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  24. 09-25-13 09:24 PM #59
    TheSchafe
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    Let's all just pick winners. Enough with the semantics...
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  25. 09-25-13 09:42 PM #60
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cookie Monster View Post
    Talking about expected value on this forum is -EV
    Hey prick

    Rubber ducks plays? Where the fukk are they?

    Most +even thing this forum ever saw. Something like 180-0

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  26. 09-25-13 11:28 PM #61
    DoYouNotGetIT
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    There is no juice if you win.
    If you are serious you are a dumbass. To bet +2.5 compared to +3 at -110 the line has to be +110 or higher. To bet -3 at -110 or buy the half a point -2.5 the line has to be -130 or lower. Same applies to +3 to +3.5 and -3.5 to -3. 20.8 swing when the half of point comes in contact with 3. If you are buying a half a point, point, or 1.5 points at a sportsbook they are screwing you most likely. Probably is bookies out there who gives deals on buying and selling points.

    Either way there is no value in buying points unless you do it all the time. There is value if you do it sometimes, but only if you are a guy who bets a low percentage of his bankroll each bet. For most people no value. One out of four times it will pay off if you are buying or selling points at 3.
    Last edited by DoYouNotGetIT; 09-25-13 at 11:34 PM.
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  27. 09-26-13 02:21 AM #62
    parlayin
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Big Bear your sharp
    Enough with this pinny lean nonsense. If its as transparent as you guys think it is, post the plays and track your record. We'd all be rich if it were that simple.
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  28. 09-26-13 02:38 AM #63
    V4Value
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    Viktor_Blom_Feature_WSOP-520x279.jpg

    Variance?
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  29. 09-26-13 02:55 AM #64
    Albert Pujols
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    Typical SBR poster thinking:

    Cubs +120. +120 is +ev. It's a plus-even bet, I'm sharp.
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  30. 09-26-13 02:56 AM #65
    PAYTON20
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    Never used it in my life.

    it's for confused bettors who have no idea how to pick a winner
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  31. 09-26-13 02:57 AM #66
    Albert Pujols
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAYTON20 View Post
    Never used it in my life.

    it's for confused bettors who have no idea how to pick a winner
    I guess if you bet a +6 dog and they win outright, you "picked a winner."
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  32. 09-26-13 03:19 AM #67
    Chili_Powder
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    bunch of flamers
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  33. 09-26-13 04:19 AM #68
    PAYTON20
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheSchafe View Post
    Let's all just pick winners. Enough with the semantics...
    Schafe many cannot pick winners so they like to BS with this jargon and semantics. Good post
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  34. 09-26-13 04:26 AM #69
    PAYTON20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Albert Pujols View Post
    I guess if you bet a +6 dog and they win outright, you "picked a winner."
    I picked Mariners last night -112 and they won 6-0. You tell me pal
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  35. 09-26-13 09:58 AM #70
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheSchafe View Post
    Let's all just pick winners. Enough with the semantics...
    Totally agree. I have never met a gambler who keeps picking winners and goes busto.
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