1. #1
    C-Gold
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    6-2 in week 2, On to week 3 NFL early looks and commentary

    Week 2
    WIN - San Diego +7.5
    WIN - Dallas +3
    LOSS- San Fran +3 and I will probably also add money line
    LOSS- Carolina -3
    WIN - Denver/Giants over 55
    WIN - Denver -4.5
    WIN - Green Bay/Baltimore Teaser
    WIN - Tampa +3
    6 wins and 2 losses +4 units

    Thursday
    Chiefs @ Philly -3, will probably go to -3.5 by kickoff.

    The Eagles have been the most interesting team in the league thus far. Vick actually played the 2nd best game of his life last week. My only complaints was a crappy pass in the end zone to James Casey for what could have been a TD early in the game, a slightly over thrown deep ball to Desean Jackson, and a poor throw on 3rd down after Foles had to come in for a play, besides that Vick was pretty flawless. The first 2 weeks has seen a lot of crappy QB play but Vick was outstanding against San Diego.

    The problem is that the Chargers didn't have their first punt until 5:18 left in the 3rd quarter. I believe they only punted once in the game. The Chargers fumbled twice at the goal line but besides that they scored on I believe the first 8 possessions. The Chargers had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last year, and they had King Dunlap protecting Rivers blind side and the Eagles still couldn't pressure Rivers. No pass rush and terrible pass coverage yes I am looking at you Carey Williams. Carey Williams got abused and Philip Rivers completed 16 of 18 passes in the first half, the Eagles defense was pointless. They gave up 33 points but they really could have given up 40+, and that's coming from a west coast team playing at 10AM local time with a bad offensive line. Eddie Royal looked like Jerry Rice out there with his 3 TD. The other funny thing is when Riley Cooper scored his TD 4 white teammates came up to him and congratulated him.

    I actually like the Chiefs match up in this.

    First of all Andy Reid knows the Eagles and he knows which players to attack on defense. You have to figure this is a big game for him and his knowledge of personnel gives him an edge, after getting run out of town expect him to pull all the tricks and hold nothing back. The Chiefs are an out of division opponent for Chip Kelly and his staff, but this is like a divisional game for Reid.

    Philip Rivers wasn't doing anything crazy last week, he was just throwing to open receivers. Alex Smith is a conservative game manager and he will do the exact same thing plus he will probably have a better run game. Expect the Chiefs to move the ball and score points against the Eagles punching bag defense.

    Vick and the Eagles will get their points too. The Chiefs have had no time to prepare for the Chip Kelly high tempo offense. The Chiefs defense completely shut down the Dallas run game in week 2, and they held the Jaguars to scoreless in week 1. People think of the Chip Kelly offense as some wide open passing attack but Lesean McCoy had 31 carries in week 1 and the majority of the play calling is runs. The Chiefs gave up nothing on the ground last week and they have a beast in the middle of their defense in Poe.

    A harder time running the ball for the Eagles, Alex Smith and the Chiefs moving the ball for KC, and the Andy Reid factor make me lean Chiefs +3.5 here and I believe I will play it. Eagles totals thus far have been 60 and 63 and I said to myself I'd like to play overs not just because of the CK offense but because this defense is crap. Chiefs are on the road but they will move the ball. So I also lean the over. The fact that the total is only 50.5 also makes me like the Chiefs +3.5 even more.
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  2. #2
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    Giants @ Carolina -1.

    Both teams are underrated.

    I came into this week saying that I would like to play the Giants, I wish they were playing somebody else but they should still get the job done against Carolina. Both teams are better than "0-2" and whoever losses will be better than 0-3. After watching both QB's it is apparent that Eli's stats look much worse than they are, while Cam Newton has been as bad as advertised through 2 games.

    Giants. Losing to Dallas in week 1 on a Nationally televised game. If Eli's RB didn't fumble twice, then get benched for the 3rd string RB who had no idea what was going on, tipped pass INT then I have no doubt in my mind Eli would have marched down the field and scored again for the Giants. He had 450 yards and was 4-0 in Jerry world, that's what he does.

    Week 2 was a blowout to Denver, the best team in the league who will win the super bowl. The pick off a tipped pass off a guy's foot right into a defenders hand is a once in a season type freak play. The 2 hail mary's when his team was down 20 to an unstoppable offense aren't a big deal. Yeah Eli could have dinked and dunked his way downfield and cut the lead, but then Big Brother just matches down field and scores anyway so it doesn't matter. He tried to make difficult plays to help give his team a small chance a winning the game instead of guaranteed losing. OK in my book for a game that was done anyway.

    Carolina should be 2-0 right now not 0-2!
    In game 1 DeAngelo Williams fumbled at the goal line late in the game that would have given his team a 1 point lead against Seattle. Maybe Russell Wilson marches down and the Hawks kick a game winning field goal but who knows. In week 2 the Panthers picked off EJ Manuel in the 2nd to last play of the game which would have won the game but the refs called pass interference on a phantom play. Carolina has been close. The missing piece has been Cam Newton who has played way worse than his stats.

    If you say that Cam Newton has a crappy offensive line and has had no time to throw then you obviously aren't watching the games. He has had time but he's been indecisive in the pocket. There was a play where he held onto the ball for 6 or 7 seconds and the announcers even showed a wide open guy that Cam just missed. He is holding onto the ball way too long and he is dropping back too far which puts pressure on his tackles. He is not comfortable in the pocket. I blame Shula and Ron Rivera for running the least creative offense in the NFL. You have Cam Newton, a dynamic guy and you are trying to turn him into Dan Marino, use the guys talents! Cam has just been a giant Scam thus far.

    Carolina's defense is good and they were particularly good at home in week 1 in shutting down Seattle's run. Carolina ran the ball on Seattle, and Seattle couldn't run the ball on them. Carolina has a good offensive line with Gross and Khlail and their defense looks a lot better. Star Lat is the missing piece in the middle. Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson are underrated pass rushers. Luke Kuechley is the best young linebacker in the NFL. Thomas Davis is great.

    The Giants should have problems running the ball 3 weeks in a row. Eli is going to have to go on the road and win this game and I believe he will, he has always been a good road QB. This should be an entertaining game to watch and I am going to play the Giants. They will win this game and getting it at +1 or +1.5 shouldn't matter.
    Last edited by C-Gold; 09-17-13 at 10:36 AM.

  3. #3
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    Houston @ Baltimore.

    Battle between 2 likely AFC playoff teams. I have their last week games on tape, I want to watch ahead of time. Baltimore got blown out by Denver which is understandable, they eeked out a win vs Cleveland. Books are losing respect on the Ravens, might be a decent chance to play them at home with a line shaded against them.

  4. #4
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    San Diego @ Titans

    Both teams 2-0 ATS. Chargers look to have improved over last year and Rivers looked more like his old self. I want to watch the Titans/Houston game from last week. Chargers on road far away from home 2 weeks in a row, but they should at least be a live dog and they are getting 3.

  5. #5
    Vinnie Paz
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    I guess Atlanta is yhe trap of the week???

  6. #6
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    Detroit @ Redskins -1.5

    Is RGIII just rusty and were the first 2 games of the season just pre-season for him or is this guy fundamentally different? That's the question.

    If all you did is looked at the stat sheet you'd think Bob Griffen is back and great. That couldn't be further from the truth. They start losing games 33-7 and 31-0 and then RG3 who plays the role of the garbage man picking up meaningless stats. RG3 the trash man.

    I don't believe in Matt Stafford, another garbage man, at all. I don't believe in Jim Schwartz at all either and I fully expect him to get fired this year.

    If Reggie Bush were healthy and playing he would be an awful matchup for a slow, old defense in Washington. Old man London Fletcher chasing Reggie Bush around LOL. Redskins secondary is a joke and they are matched up against Calvin Johnson, that doesn't work. The Lions offense if healthy really isn't a good match up for the Redskins. If DeAngelo Hall can't cover Jordy Nelson and James Jones, what happens when Calvin Johnson comes to town?

    The Redskins offense really changed. RG3 has had 2 torn knees in 4 years and he isn't the same. ESPN and idiots in Washington wanted to compare him to Drew Brees and even Aaron Rodgers last year because of his high completion %. He's not a thug and they seem to think he is going to be Drew Brees with legs because he can RUN and THROW. I don't really buy that. RG3 got lots of easy completions off of zone read play action. That's why his efficiency was so high, because the threat of the run. If you took away his legs or made him exclusively a pocket passer he'd be one of the worst throwing QB's in the league. RG3 without his legs is like Joe Flacco without a strong arm. That's what he is. He's not a good passer, he's a below average passer with the threat of the run.

    Washington is "due", Washington should beat Detroit, but RG3 has been crappy and Detroit has been a good road team and the Redskins secondary has no answer for Calvin Johnson. I don't know what to do.

  7. #7
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    Arizona @ Saints -9.

    Drew Brees is overrated.

    Yes Drew Brees is a very good QB but he's always lumped in there with Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. He's clearly not in the same class as them. Of course he's going to rack up passing yards playing in a dome. He's more Eli-ish with the interceptions. He threw 19 picks last year, and 22 INT three years ago. When the Saints won the super bowl nobody talks about this but they had a top 5 running game. The Saints have and have had a very good offensive line and he has the best coach/coordinator out of all the other "top" QB's. There are 3 super elite QB's and Drew Brees isn't one of them. He's probably at the top of the next class but he's not in the top class.

    Saints pass rush was pretty good at home against Matt Ryan.

    9 points is a lot to lay for a team that won by 2 and 5 and Arizona won by 4 and lost by 3, but this is in a loud New Orleans dome on a flat surface where speed is magnified. New Orleans looks like they can be a good teaser candidate taking them down to -2.

  8. #8
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Agree with most of this except SD. The b2b road trips concerns me and Titans playing pretty good ball. I think SD has over achieved to this point and we have really not seen the bad Rivers yet. Add to the equation his best outside weapon Floyd who was huge vs Philly will likely be out. Flying high after the Philly win I see this as a good let down spot and with the public pounding them I will watch where this line goes. 49ers, Rams , Miami are 3 leans I have as well early on. Great write ups btw!!

  9. #9
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    Bucs @ Patriots -7

    - If the Patriots started the year with 2 "average" teams they'd probably be 0-2 right now. With that said the Bucs are 0-2 right now.
    - Bellicheck gets a few extra days to prep for Tampa which is good.
    - 7 points is still a lot to lay for an offense that looked terrible.
    - If Gronk or by some miracle Amendola are announced to play, Pats line should move.

    I am liking the Under here.

    Josh Freeman is a backup NFL QB. The Bum completed 9 of 22 passes against last year's worst defense in NFL history. If you can't complete 10 passes, at home against them, then you don't deserve to start. You should be the first guy in the building and the last guy to leave. He is another failed QB and he will be on the Byron Leftwich backup circuit. Tampa's strength is line and running but the Patriots have improved against the run. Forcing Josh to pass is great for the under.

    Patriots offense is out of sync. I believe they will improve over time as they get Gronk and Amendola back and the rookies get more familiar with the offense but they are not a good product right now.

    Bucs totals have been 30 vs the saints and 35 vs the Jets
    Pats totals have been 45 vs Buffalo and 23 vs the Jets

    The line is 44.5. I'd say it has a good shot at going under. If you made me pick the game I'd lean Pats -7. I think New England is a decent teaser option.

  10. #10
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    Green Bay @ Cincinnati

    The Bengals are solid at every position. I mean Andre Smith is a top Tackle, AJ Green is a top receiver, Efirt is like a Jr. Gronk, Bernard is an explosive young RB, the law firm converts every 3rd down, Geno Atkins is the top interior D-lineman in the league, they have pass rushers, Burfict has been one of the best young LBs in the league.

    But you can't handicap the stupidity of Marvin Lewis. This team threw away the Bears game and they couldn't put the Steelers away last week. Super Bowl winning teams step on the throat of opponents like the Seahawks and Denver have been doing and Green bay did last week. Marvin Lewis has never even won a playoff game. Fire crotch was about as inaccurate as I've ever seen him last night. This team not only can't win playoff games, they pissed their pants last night on MNF. If this game was Sunday at 1 they probably would have beat the Steelers by more but Marvin pissed his pants again.

    I picked Green Bay to the super bowl. I don't see a line on this game but I am biased to picking them here. If they can actually get a running game going, starks had 130 last week then look out.

    The only problem I see is that Aaron Rodgers was the most sacked QB in the NFL last year. He's the best but if you want a weakness that can be exploited that's it. He isn't going to throw picks but he holds onto the ball and will take sacks. Bengals have pass rushers on the outside and Geno on the inside.

    Don't see a line yet but I lean Green bay.

  11. #11
    Huckleberry Pig
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    Just want to say whether I or anyone else agrees with you or not this is one of the best NFL threads on this site. Hate all the "take ___ and thank me later" threads. Refreshing to see insightful, well thought-out write ups. Keep up the good work. Would love to see this thread become someplace we can have informative discussion/debate throughout the year. On that note, You should consider keeping this thread going for the entire year instead of starting a new one ever week.

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  12. #12
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    Rams @ Cowboys

    I picked Dallas to go to the playoffs. For that to happen they have to win games like this. Last week the Rams couldn't stop Julio Jones, he was targeted 14 times, he had 11 catches for 182 yards and a touchdown. That's a 79% completion percentage. What do you think is going to happen with Dez Bryant? The guy had I believe 5 catches for 98 yards and a touch in the first quarter alone last week. Brandon Flowers had no chance at all at covering him. He looked like arguably the best WR in the NFL last week next to Calvin Johnson. AJ Green has been making good plays but errors, Dez was only a playmaker. Remember earlier in his career when he was making errors?

    Romo had no running game at all last week in KC. If you think Romo is the reason the Cowboys lost to the Chiefs then you probably qualify for food stamps. What lost the game was poor play calling in the red zone later in the game. Dez Bryant was dominating the game and they wouldn't even throw it in the end zone, running a poorly executed WR screen at the 5 yard line. They settled for field goals and got burned. Settling for Field goals at the goal line on the road always has a way of biting you in the ass.

    Dallas's offensive line improved. Jason Garret said after week 1 that it was the best they've played in 4 years. They had 1 blown assignment in week 2 where Poe came crashing up the middle unblocked - by the goal line but Travis Frederick is a rookie, you have to expect that. I believe that was 2 plays before the WR screen that drove me nuts and that cost DAL points. Dallas getting good play from Tyron Smith. They will need good play against Long and Quinn, the rams have solid bookend pass rushers.

    Cowboys couldn't run the ball in week2 but they probably run it better at home here in week 3. I think Dallas wins but I hate laying points to Jeff Fisher teams, especially the hook at 3 1/2.

  13. #13
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    Atlanta @ Miami -1

    It looks like a rat.

    I picked out the 2 sucker bets last week. I said Tampa was a sucker bet and I saw Indy "only" minus 3 at home against the Fins and I also smelled a rat. It just looked too good to be true. In my week 2 thread I said are the Colts even good enough to be a sucker bet? It just looked too fresh... Indy -3.... at home... do you want them or not? penetrate no!

    Can Miami be a sucker bet 2 weeks in a row?

    With that said I haven't watched Miami. I want to watch them on tape. I know Cameron Wake is for real. Dion Jordan is a freak pass rusher. Ellerby rounds out a very solid LB core. Miami defense is good.

    Matt Ryan and the Falcons aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home. They won and "pushed" last week only due to an Osi Omenyouri pick 6. Yeah, how often do defensive ends have pick 6's?

    I think Atlanta is good and I picked them with win a tough NFC South but I felt like New Orleans defense - which sucks by the way got too much pass rush on Matt Ryan. It wasn't even some crazy Rob Ryan schemes, it was the Saints defensive tackles getting a push up front right into the grill of Matt Ryan. That shouldn't be happening.

    The Falcons are a dome team and will go out and play a tough Miami defense on grass. It looks like the fantasy football obsessed public loves Atlanta here while the guys in the Las Vegas desert like Miami. The house doesn't always win, but the house is saying you like Atlanta? OK, +1.

    It reminds me of when I used to call my bookie. What's the line of the Patriots or some public team's game? He'd try and shade the line by a 1 point or so because he thought I was going to play them. So I started penetrating with him when I wanted to take dogs. Oh the Patriots are -8 against the Jets? I'd sigh and say that -8 seems kind of high, I'll put 100 on the Jets +8 LOL. If I wanted to take a favorite I'd say "what's the line on the Patriots/Jets game" and he'd give me the true line.

  14. #14
    Huckleberry Pig
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    Quote Originally Posted by C-Gold View Post
    Atlanta @ Miami -1

    It looks like a rat.

    I picked out the 2 sucker bets last week. I said Tampa was a sucker bet and I saw Indy "only" minus 3 at home against the Fins and I also smelled a rat. It just looked too good to be true. In my week 2 thread I said are the Colts even good enough to be a sucker bet? It just looked too fresh... Indy -3.... at home... do you want them or not? penetrate no!

    Can Miami be a sucker bet 2 weeks in a row?

    With that said I haven't watched Miami. I want to watch them on tape. I know Cameron Wake is for real. Dion Jordan is a freak pass rusher. Ellerby rounds out a very solid LB core. Miami defense is good.

    Matt Ryan and the Falcons aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home. They won and "pushed" last week only due to an Osi Omenyouri pick 6. Yeah, how often do defensive ends have pick 6's?

    I think Atlanta is good and I picked them with win a tough NFC South but I felt like New Orleans defense - which sucks by the way got too much pass rush on Matt Ryan. It wasn't even some crazy Rob Ryan schemes, it was the Saints defensive tackles getting a push up front right into the grill of Matt Ryan. That shouldn't be happening.

    The Falcons are a dome team and will go out and play a tough Miami defense on grass. It looks like the fantasy football obsessed public loves Atlanta here while the guys in the Las Vegas desert like Miami. The house doesn't always win, but the house is saying you like Atlanta? OK, +1.

    It reminds me of when I used to call my bookie. What's the line of the Patriots or some public team's game? He'd try and shade the line by a 1 point or so because he thought I was going to play them. So I started penetrating with him when I wanted to take dogs. Oh the Patriots are -8 against the Jets? I'd sigh and say that -8 seems kind of high, I'll put 100 on the Jets +8 LOL. If I wanted to take a favorite I'd say "what's the line on the Patriots/Jets game" and he'd give me the true line.
    Completely agree here. Falcons are a finesse team and really have problems against physical teams. Their O-line isn't great and I think Miami gets a lot of pressure on Ryan here. No jumping to an early lead for the Falcons in this one. Miami very underrated as well. Solid team that doesn't commit a lot of turnovers and plays good fundamental football. Look for them to try to push ATL around in this one. I will be waiting for the public to pound ATL here and hope the line moves to a pick'em. Definitely like Miami here at home.

  15. #15
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    Buffalo @ Jets

    Geno looked awful vs the Pats. 43% completion percentage, 3 INT, no Tds, and he had awful pocket awareness. He rushed when he didn't have to and he stood in the pocket too long when he didn't have time. He stood on the sideline and was just smiling to one of his teammates after throwing the game losing interception. This is the kind of guy you want to fade. Guy has awful pocket awareness and now he's up against Mario Williams who had 4.5 sacks last week, and Kyle Williams and Marcell Darious.

    The thing nobody understands about the Jets is that they still have a good offensive line with Mangold and D'Brick and Ducassaee neutralized Vincce Wilfork last week. The Jets have a good offensive line and a good defense. Everybody looks at the Jets shitty QB's and shitty WR's and think this team is on par with the Jaguars, they are not. The Jets have shitty skilled position guys but their O-Line is good and their defense is good enough. That's why they are 2-0 ATS. Also in case you didn't notice Rex Ryan is on the hot seat, there is nothing more motivating for a man than that.

    EJ Manuel is a joke. At one point he was completing like 75% of his passes to his running backs. I said the Bills can finish #2 in this division over Miami because Spiller is the most explosive play maker out of the other 3 teams. The Bills have a big offensive line, a great defensive line, and some defensive backs.

    I'll have to think more about this game. Neither team deserves to win.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Huckleberry Pig View Post
    Completely agree here. Falcons are a finesse team and really have problems against physical teams. Their O-line isn't great and I think Miami gets a lot of pressure on Ryan here. No jumping to an early lead for the Falcons in this one. Miami very underrated as well. Solid team that doesn't commit a lot of turnovers and plays good fundamental football. Look for them to try to push ATL around in this one. I will be waiting for the public to pound ATL here and hope the line moves to a pick'em. Definitely like Miami here at home.
    Haven't seen Tannehill at all this year, but it looks like this guy is at least capable of being a competent game manager. This guy isn't trying to be the hero and make throws he can't make.

    Atlanta's secondary looked good in week 1. Asante Samuel was out and the rookie Trufant looked good and the other rookie looked even better than him to tell you the truth.

    Atlanta is clearly a better team than Miami but the NFL is so match up based. Atlanta is a dome team. New Orleans is a dome team that nearly lost to a shitty Bucs team last week. It is all about match ups.

  17. #17
    calmeat
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    Not sure if im agreeing with you on this one. The arguments you have in that write up just aren't true. Andy doesnt know the new eagles at all. totally different schemes new corners etc. On the other hand the eagles Know andy reid. His coaching has not changed its the same shit over and over again just with new people. This game is as big for philly as it is for Reid. The fanbase will not accept a loss to andy and the team and coach kelly know this. If they beat chiefs and end up 6-10 at the end of season the win vs chiefs will get him a pass from fanbase. If he looses vs chiefs they will be crucified in this town. (yes im a homer)

    I hope andy does run the ball that may be the only way the eagles can stop them. Eagles D is terrible and any team should be attacking their terrible secondary and cover linebackers. But knowing andy he will try to outsmart everyone and run the ball even though the way to win is through the air vs the eagles. He did this last year vs the Browns when hayden was hurt. All he had to do was throw the ball vs Browns and we could have killed them instead he ran the ball over and over again against the strongest part of the D.

    Chiefs shut down Demarco Murray and MJD both with not great lines and not doing well. I will take shady over either of those 2. Chiefs have a good D but the eagles O will be fine against them. As for wide open passing attack no one says that... his offense is a wide open offense a Spread offense which makes room for playmakers in space whether its a RB or WR or TE.

    With all that said it will be a close game but i would go eagles 27-23

    Quote Originally Posted by C-Gold View Post


    Thursday
    Chiefs @ Philly -3, will probably go to -3.5 by kickoff.

    The Eagles have been the most interesting team in the league thus far. Vick actually played the 2nd best game of his life last week. My only complaints was a crappy pass in the end zone to James Casey for what could have been a TD early in the game, a slightly over thrown deep ball to Desean Jackson, and a poor throw on 3rd down after Foles had to come in for a play, besides that Vick was pretty flawless. The first 2 weeks has seen a lot of crappy QB play but Vick was outstanding against San Diego.

    The problem is that the Chargers didn't have their first punt until 5:18 left in the 3rd quarter. I believe they only punted once in the game. The Chargers fumbled twice at the goal line but besides that they scored on I believe the first 8 possessions. The Chargers had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last year, and they had King Dunlap protecting Rivers blind side and the Eagles still couldn't pressure Rivers. No pass rush and terrible pass coverage yes I am looking at you Carey Williams. Carey Williams got abused and Philip Rivers completed 16 of 18 passes in the first half, the Eagles defense was pointless. They gave up 33 points but they really could have given up 40+, and that's coming from a west coast team playing at 10AM local time with a bad offensive line. Eddie Royal looked like Jerry Rice out there with his 3 TD. The other funny thing is when Riley Cooper scored his TD 4 white teammates came up to him and congratulated him.

    I actually like the Chiefs match up in this.

    First of all Andy Reid knows the Eagles and he knows which players to attack on defense. You have to figure this is a big game for him and his knowledge of personnel gives him an edge, after getting run out of town expect him to pull all the tricks and hold nothing back. The Chiefs are an out of division opponent for Chip Kelly and his staff, but this is like a divisional game for Reid.

    Philip Rivers wasn't doing anything crazy last week, he was just throwing to open receivers. Alex Smith is a conservative game manager and he will do the exact same thing plus he will probably have a better run game. Expect the Chiefs to move the ball and score points against the Eagles punching bag defense.

    Vick and the Eagles will get their points too. The Chiefs have had no time to prepare for the Chip Kelly high tempo offense. The Chiefs defense completely shut down the Dallas run game in week 2, and they held the Jaguars to scoreless in week 1. People think of the Chip Kelly offense as some wide open passing attack but Lesean McCoy had 31 carries in week 1 and the majority of the play calling is runs. The Chiefs gave up nothing on the ground last week and they have a beast in the middle of their defense in Poe.

    A harder time running the ball for the Eagles, Alex Smith and the Chiefs moving the ball for KC, and the Andy Reid factor make me lean Chiefs +3.5 here and I believe I will play it. Eagles totals thus far have been 60 and 63 and I said to myself I'd like to play overs not just because of the CK offense but because this defense is crap. Chiefs are on the road but they will move the ball. So I also lean the over. The fact that the total is only 50.5 also makes me like the Chiefs +3.5 even more.

  18. #18
    PremiumPete83
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    Quote Originally Posted by C-Gold View Post
    Week 2
    WIN - San Diego +7.5
    WIN - Dallas +3
    LOSS- San Fran +3 and I will probably also add money line
    LOSS- Carolina -3
    WIN - Denver/Giants over 55
    WIN - Denver -4.5
    WIN - Green Bay/Baltimore Teaser
    WIN - Tampa +3
    6 wins and 2 losses +4 units

    Thursday
    Chiefs @ Philly -3, will probably go to -3.5 by kickoff.

    The Eagles have been the most interesting team in the league thus far. Vick actually played the 2nd best game of his life last week. My only complaints was a crappy pass in the end zone to James Casey for what could have been a TD early in the game, a slightly over thrown deep ball to Desean Jackson, and a poor throw on 3rd down after Foles had to come in for a play, besides that Vick was pretty flawless. The first 2 weeks has seen a lot of crappy QB play but Vick was outstanding against San Diego.

    The problem is that the Chargers didn't have their first punt until 5:18 left in the 3rd quarter. I believe they only punted once in the game. The Chargers fumbled twice at the goal line but besides that they scored on I believe the first 8 possessions. The Chargers had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last year, and they had King Dunlap protecting Rivers blind side and the Eagles still couldn't pressure Rivers. No pass rush and terrible pass coverage yes I am looking at you Carey Williams. Carey Williams got abused and Philip Rivers completed 16 of 18 passes in the first half, the Eagles defense was pointless. They gave up 33 points but they really could have given up 40+, and that's coming from a west coast team playing at 10AM local time with a bad offensive line. Eddie Royal looked like Jerry Rice out there with his 3 TD. The other funny thing is when Riley Cooper scored his TD 4 white teammates came up to him and congratulated him.

    I actually like the Chiefs match up in this.

    First of all Andy Reid knows the Eagles and he knows which players to attack on defense. You have to figure this is a big game for him and his knowledge of personnel gives him an edge, after getting run out of town expect him to pull all the tricks and hold nothing back. The Chiefs are an out of division opponent for Chip Kelly and his staff, but this is like a divisional game for Reid.

    Philip Rivers wasn't doing anything crazy last week, he was just throwing to open receivers. Alex Smith is a conservative game manager and he will do the exact same thing plus he will probably have a better run game. Expect the Chiefs to move the ball and score points against the Eagles punching bag defense.

    Vick and the Eagles will get their points too. The Chiefs have had no time to prepare for the Chip Kelly high tempo offense. The Chiefs defense completely shut down the Dallas run game in week 2, and they held the Jaguars to scoreless in week 1. People think of the Chip Kelly offense as some wide open passing attack but Lesean McCoy had 31 carries in week 1 and the majority of the play calling is runs. The Chiefs gave up nothing on the ground last week and they have a beast in the middle of their defense in Poe.

    A harder time running the ball for the Eagles, Alex Smith and the Chiefs moving the ball for KC, and the Andy Reid factor make me lean Chiefs +3.5 here and I believe I will play it. Eagles totals thus far have been 60 and 63 and I said to myself I'd like to play overs not just because of the CK offense but because this defense is crap. Chiefs are on the road but they will move the ball. So I also lean the over. The fact that the total is only 50.5 also makes me like the Chiefs +3.5 even more.
    As an Eagles homer I can't predict anything with this game. This is easily the best defense the Eagles have faced. On the other side, Andy Reid may be familiar with some players but 3/4 of the secondary is new and everyone has different assignments. I can easily see this going under as the Chiefs play ball control and the Eagles have to face a defense with a stout front seven and a solid secondary.

  19. #19
    C-Gold
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    Cleveland @ Minnesota -5

    Minnesota made the playoffs last year. In my season preview I picked them to go 4-12 and be one of the 2 worst teams in the NFC. It is a damn shame that Adrian Peterson is going to waste because his ignorant head coach had to waste a pick on Christian Ponder in the middle of the first round. Ponder is absolute garbage and shows no signs of life. Josh Freeman is going to be a backup NFL QB but he's at least had a couple decent games sprinkled in there, Ponder just flat out sucks. The sooner the Vikings find a replacement the better.

    When Raheem Morris picks Josh Freeman it costs him his job.
    Ponder should cost Frazier his job.

    It's not just that these ignorant Tony Dungry defensive coaches picked these bums, it's the crap they said about them. Morris said something like if the Bucs had the #1 pick, they still would have picked Freeman. Leslie Frazier said Ponder was the #1 QB on their board and both teams reached. Just say you are happy to get a guy of his caliber, those coaches only showed their ignorance by hyping up Freeman and Ponder. Their poor judgement cost them jobs. Nobody even wanted to hire Raheem Morris as a defensive coordinator, he had to go back to being a position coach.

    Weeden looks like he is hurt and might not play. Does it even matter that much? Nobody in that stadium on Sunday is a competent QB. Not Ponder, not Cassell, not Weeden not Campbell.

    The Browns held the Ravens to 14 on the road and they get Josh Gordon back. I wouldn't bet on this game but if I had to I'd take the Browns +5 to continue to fade Minnesota. They are not a playoff team and will lose a lot of ground this year.

  20. #20
    C-Gold
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    Quote Originally Posted by calmeat View Post
    Andy doesnt know the new eagles at all. totally different schemes new corners etc. On the other hand the eagles Know andy reid.

    This game is as big for philly as it is for Reid.
    Andy doesn't know the Eagles? He was their head coach last year! Of course he knows a lot about this team and he is going to try and use their weaknesses against them. I am talking about individual players. Maybe he thinks Fletcher Cox or Demeco Ryans or whoever has a tendency to overpursue etc. Maybe he thinks Vick really sucks when you make him roll to his right etc. Reid knows these guys weaknesses.

    The Eagles know Andy, so what is Mike Vick going to go over to Chip Kelly and them they they should start running cover 3 man under sky coverage on 3rd downs because Andy has a tendency to run certain plays? Not going to happen.

    Yes the fans in Philly really want to win but this is huge for Andy. He got fired, the players on the Eagles didn't get fired. The fan base has always had a love hate relationship with Andy but it's not the same.

    I agree the Eagles rushing attack is a lot different than Dallas's and Jaguars. Philly has a better O-Line with Peters, Mathis are pro bowl caliber and Lane Johnson looked solid at RT in his first 2 games. I agree Philly is going to get their points but the Chiefs are also going to get their points. Alex Smith should just execute down field. Jamal Charles gets some yards on 1st and 2nd down, and Smith is throwing to wide open guys on 3rd down. The Chains keep moving and the Chiefs get scoring opportunities.

  21. #21
    etothep
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    RE: ATL/MIA

    Steven Jackson will also be out. Quizz has a career 3.5 YPC. Quizz & Snelling are both more typical 3rd down backs, so I'd look for ATL to go super pass heavy against the Fins

  22. #22
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    Indy @ San Fran -10.5

    I would not want to play the 49ers after Sunday night. This is a bad draw for an Indy team that had trouble with the Raiders and lost at home to Miami.

    Aren't the 49ers supposed to have the best offensive line in the NFL? Frank Gore had 21 carries for 44 yards vs Green Bay and 9 caries for 16 yards vs Seattle. If the 49ers are supposed to be the best line in the NFL then they need to show it.

    Kaep did not have a good game against the Hawks but at least he was trying to win it. All RW did was hand the ball off and throw 3 passes to his wide receivers. That's great and all in the regular season but if you ever want to WIN a super bowl you have to WIN a super bowl. You can't just play Marty Ball or Tony Dungy ball and expect a string of quality playoff teams to self destruct. Jim Harbaugh realized this. Alex Smith is a very good game manager and gave the 49ers a chance to win a team game, but Kaep has a chance to take over. He played every bit good enough to win last year's super bowl.

    I see SF is -9 at the Mirage, that's a gimme for a 7 point teaser right there. The reason the line is 10.5 is because everybody would just play SF in 7 point teasers.

    I picked Indy to go the the playoffs in the weak AFC but this is a bad draw for them. SF still probably covers the 10.5 and shows America who they are again at 4 PM.

  23. #23
    carolinacapper
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    Like NYG pick- Carolina secondary banged up

    Charles Godfrey - IR
    Quentin Mikel - doubtful
    Josh Thomad - questionable

    Maybe pound the Giants ML?

  24. #24
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Damn C-Gold I posted my other 3 leans Frisco, Miami, Rams even before your write-ups. Great minds think alike I guess.
    Points Awarded:

    C-Gold gave R.P. McMurphy 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  25. #25
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    Jags @ Sea -19.5

    This is embarrassing for the NFL to see a 20 point dog in week 3 but it looks like their starting QB, RB and #1 WR could all be out. The Hawks really should win by 20+ but here are some arguments why they shouldn't won't.

    - I am sure most guys in the Hawks locker room just look at this as a bye. Huge let down possibility.
    - Pete Carroll just wants to win, it doesn't matter if they win by 10 or 30, he just wants to make sure they are 3-0, no need to bury his opponent and if anything he might throw Gus Bradley a bone here and not run up the score.
    - Gus Bradley comes home, this is his defense and if anybody might have some insight into how to attack it he might.
    - If you bet a 19.5 point favorite you have to be scared of the back door cover of the MOOSE coming out. I believe the Moose came out for Seattle last year.


    - I just haven't been impressed at all with the game manager Russell Wilson. He had a bad preseason, he didn't look comfortable in the pocket, he only looks comfortable rolling out. He only completed 8 passes against the 49ers and only 3 of them were to wide receivers. He's a game manager. Nothing wrong with that but understand what he is. He's about 6 inches shorter than the average NFL QB and the Hawks are forced to let him run waggles, and he's usually rolling out to his right. He completed 25% of his passes outside the pocket last year, has to be the highest in the NFL. He looks great outside the pocket but he looked bad inside the pocket, where he has to look over his lineman. I'd love to see his QB rating inside and outside the pocket.

    Seattle should win by 20+ but I don't think they will.

  26. #26
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Anyone remember the ass pounding NYG gave the Panthers last year on Thursday night? Giants have there issues but Eli and co gonna get it together at some point and battle there way to .500 I think!

  27. #27
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    Bears @ Steelers +2.5

    Does anybody think the Steelers deserve to be on prime time Sunday Night football after last night's game? The Steelers played about as crappy as you can possibly play to still be "in" the game. The young offensive line has high round draft picks but these guys need to gel. They should get better as the season goes on but this team put up 9 points and 10 points. Boring football, it's basically here BIG BEN, go make a play. He kept throwing downfield last night. The NFL through 2 weeks I've mostly seen QB's take the 'easy" short throws with only a hand full of QB's having the nut sack to throw down field. Big Ben is a creepy guy but he's still one of the top 5 to 7 QB's in the game and he has the rings to prove it. Yeah maybe he was a game manager in the first one but he clearly won the second one.

    The Bears offense looked bad in week 1, but showed signs in week 2 putting up 31 points. I really was worried about the Trestman offense after 1 week but Bears fans have some hope. You want to see that progression. Trestman still kept the same defensive philosophy which was the right thing to do. The Bears should finish #2 in the north but I don't see them seriously challenging the pack.

    I'd lean the Bears +2.5 here as anybody that watched the Steelers game last night probably wants to poke their eyes out. One of the guys in the in-game thread (I forget who) basically just said F it, this game sucks and went to bed. Steelers having 1 TD in 2 games is pathetic and I wouldn't want to take them.

  28. #28
    C-Gold
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.P. McMurphy View Post
    Anyone remember the ass pounding NYG gave the Panthers last year on Thursday night? Giants have there issues but Eli and co gonna get it together at some point and battle there way to .500 I think!
    I forgot to make that point as well. Giants beat the Panthers ass on that Thursday night and Eli watches tape. Cam Newton was the same Cam we saw through 2 games this year. He will probably have JPP and Tuck in his mind and look indecisive in the pocket again. Cam has all the tools but he just can't put it all together.

    Giants are my best bet so far.

  29. #29
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    Oakland @ Denver -14.5

    I picked Denver to win the super bowl and this team will only get better once Von Miller comes back. They should finish the season no worse than 14-2 or 13-3 and have an outside chance to go undefeated.

    Peyton Manning is like a coach. He's always trying to be perfect. He's the kind of guy you want to bet on for huge point spreads. He doesn't see that his team put up 41 and 49 points, he thinks about all the missed opportunities they had. This is like a glorified practice for him on MNF.

    The hook doesn't scare me. 14 points don't scare me. The backdoor cover doesn't scare me. Denver should put up 40+ again and Terrell Pryor is still TP. The Raiders put up 19 and 17 and Denver's defense is better than both Jacksonville and Indy. Denver's pass rush needs Miller but I liked the coverage Denver's DB's played against the Giants. They won't even have to be that tight against TP.

    I wouldn't be shocked if this line goes up to 15 or 16 points closer to kickoff. The gambling public will be trying to chase their losses. Take Denver early. If you think the Raiders are going to do anything then do yourself a favor and take the over. What is TP going to do when he finds himself down by 2 TD?

    Denver -14.5 is a good play.

  30. #30
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Heath Millers status is a big deal in that Pitt game as well. He is not on the same page with his receivers and he also over threw open guys last night in critical spots including the last pick which was a backbreaker. Having a familiar face back in Miller would be a breath of fresh air for Ben but this should be ugly for sure and plenty of defense!

  31. #31
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by C-Gold View Post
    I forgot to make that point as well. Giants beat the Panthers ass on that Thursday night and Eli watches tape. Cam Newton was the same Cam we saw through 2 games this year. He will probably have JPP and Tuck in his mind and look indecisive in the pocket again. Cam has all the tools but he just can't put it all together.

    Giants are my best bet so far.
    i guess great minds think alike. they are my top play too.

    Panthers will be without a starting corner and starting safety.

    The Panthers always find a way to lose.

    BkofAma stadium will be 80% Giants fans.

  32. #32
    C-Gold
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    Early leans - not locked in stone, these games look playable.
    Chiefs +3
    Chiefs/Eagles over 50.5
    TB/NE Under 44.5
    Giants +1.5
    Green Bay -2
    Miami -1
    SF -10.5
    Denver -14.5

    Best Bet Giants +1.5

  33. #33
    Big Bear
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    They call Charlotte "south new york"

    b/c of all the New Yorkers that have flocked to Charlotte
    for the banking jobs.

    Fans who still live in NY can hop on a flight to Charlotte for
    $100 and get really cheap tickets since the Panthers dont have
    a strong fan base.

  34. #34
    C-Gold
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    i guess great minds think alike. they are my top play too.

    Panthers will be without a starting corner and starting safety.

    The Panthers always find a way to lose.

    BkofAma stadium will be 80% Giants fans.
    All of those New Yorkers move down to little wall street Charlotte. It is the best play on the board.

  35. #35
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Agree on Denver as well they have slaughtered us in recent years ecs. in primetime. Allen has our revamped defense looking better than expected but that was vs Indy and Jags. The sheriff and his boys will be too much and Prior probably turns the ball over a couple times at least in his 1st primetime game. And as usual we will be bringing a knife to a gunfight settling for 3 while giving up 7 too many times. Probably gonna be a 38-16 type game.

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