1. 09-21-13 04:48 PM #1
    LeahMichele
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    Hypothetical question on Jaguars ML

    since everyone knows its all about EV not who you actually think will win, I was wondering,

    what ML would you need on the JAGS tommorow before you would put $100 on them. I was just wondering what point their ML will be + EV ? I know the +1600 isnt enough because they are going to lose, but would + 5000 make it + EV ?
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  2. 09-21-13 04:49 PM #2
    d2bets
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    188-1
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  3. 09-21-13 05:05 PM #3
    InTheDrink
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    If a guey told you that you could make a bet and lose five dollars or you could lose one hundred dollars would you make a bet?

    I'd walk away

    No chance for jags

    Anyone who says these gueys are all pros hasn't seen teams this bad
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  4. 09-21-13 05:10 PM #4
    boeing power
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    At 50/1 you can make a nice hedge bet,

    so 50/1 is about the number that I would want to even consider it.
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  5. 09-21-13 07:20 PM #5
    slacker00
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    30-1 minimum.
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  6. 09-21-13 07:53 PM #6
    hockey216
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    you only need to be 4.4% to win to break even at 22/1. if you think seattle less than 95.6% than play is jacksonville.
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  7. 09-21-13 07:56 PM #7
    goduke
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    a loss is still a loss no matter how much "value" it has.
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  8. 09-21-13 08:08 PM #8
    hockey216
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    Quote Originally Posted by goduke View Post
    a loss is still a loss no matter how much "value" it has.
    WRONG!

    If someone offered you 3/2 on a coinflip, would you not take it because you can still lose? what if they offered you 20/1 on a coinflip? A loss is still a loss and you could still lose... but you profit by making plays with + expected value.

    unless you have a crystal ball and know who is going to win and it is 100% certain... but then it's not gambling.every play entails risk of losing. you profit over time by making +EV plays so that in long run, while you have many wins and losses, you still profit.
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  9. 09-21-13 10:43 PM #9
    pologq
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    i think now its 22-1...i would want at least 30-1 to bet it. by right the jags should be like 100-1 to win straight up but 30-1 makes it interesting for me.
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  10. 09-21-13 10:52 PM #10
    DrStale
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    Jags are +2000 right now. I don't know if that's worth a play. I am putting a unit on them to cover. Simply too large a spread for the NFL and spreads this large rarely cover.
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  11. 09-21-13 11:32 PM #11
    BennyBigNuts
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    Quote Originally Posted by goduke View Post
    a loss is still a loss no matter how much "value" it has.
    Dumbest thing I've ever heard.


    NO TEAM should be +2000 to win an NFL game. Especially only in week 3.
    Jags are worth a bet 100% in terms of value.
    Of course they don't have much of a chance, but let's not forget SEATTLE squeaked one out against the Panthers already in week 1. Could be 1-1.
    Aren't we over-hyping this team just a tad?
    Even with their home dominance, they are not the kind of team to be 20 pt favorites. Russell Wilson is average at best. Plenty of capable of a pick 6 here n there to make the game a challenge.
    Last edited by BennyBigNuts; 09-21-13 at 11:36 PM.
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  12. 09-22-13 12:11 AM #12
    tokio
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    Seahawks will take this game lightly. Take the 19 or whatever the spread is.
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  13. 09-22-13 12:25 AM #13
    Domestic
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    Quote Originally Posted by tokio View Post
    Seahawks will take this game lightly. Take the 19 or whatever the spread is.
    Yeah, if I was going to take anything I'd take the spread. As bad as the Jaguars are there is always a good chance of a backdoor cover with these large spreads.
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  14. 09-22-13 12:27 AM #14
    Smoke
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    Jaguars get crushed by 30+ book it
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    PAYTON20 gave Smoke 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  15. 09-22-13 12:42 AM #15
    bruins35
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    seahawks 35 jags 6
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  16. 09-22-13 12:50 AM #16
    face
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    tons of long shot dogs in tennis, you can wait for way better ones than jaguars, like when federer or sharapova plays someone young w/out the big pedigree
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  17. 09-22-13 12:50 AM #17
    chopperocker
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    Jaguars are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS last 19 seasons as a Road Dog on the West Coast. put Jags on your Teasers, Carroll should have mercy on his former DC. I have yet to find a league trend where the Dog wins SU less than 7%, with that as a example anything over +1,328 is +EV. moneyline 1% max.
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  18. 09-22-13 01:00 AM #18
    JM17
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    Quote Originally Posted by InTheDrink View Post
    If a guey told you that you could make a bet and lose five dollars or you could lose one hundred dollars would you make a bet?

    I'd walk away

    No chance for jags

    Anyone who says these gueys are all pros hasn't seen teams this bad
    Risk vs reward. High risk deserves high reward, GUEY.
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  19. 09-22-13 01:20 AM #19
    iifold
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    You guys act like R.Wilson is superman If anything, the Jags are so bad at moving the ball and run such a simple offense, the Seahawks huge homefield advantage will actually be minimized... Not saying the Jags will win or even come close... But anyone laying 20 points or taking the Seahawks moneyline is a rookie... The Jags can use their tight ends and backs which are the way to score on this defense... I think they might score a few times!!

    Seattle wins because teams come in and cant run their precise offenses... Not because they are the greatest team ever...

    Their best player is their fans and their stadium...
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  20. 09-22-13 01:27 AM #20
    InTheDrink
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    foldii being as unsharp as he can

    foldii go ahead and explain why the chickens are 9-0 this year and last at home

    foldii tell us the average margin of victory in those 9 games

    foldii youre a fukkin joke guyee
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  21. 09-22-13 01:35 AM #21
    JuicedUp
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    jags win
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  22. 09-22-13 02:47 AM #22
    Tomasaurus
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    Quote Originally Posted by goduke View Post
    a loss is still a loss no matter how much "value" it has.
    What an idiot
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  23. 09-22-13 03:05 AM #23
    V4Value
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    Quote Originally Posted by hockey216 View Post
    WRONG!

    If someone offered you 3/2 on a coinflip, would you not take it because you can still lose? what if they offered you 20/1 on a coinflip? A loss is still a loss and you could still lose... but you profit by making plays with + expected value.

    unless you have a crystal ball and know who is going to win and it is 100% certain... but then it's not gambling.every play entails risk of losing. you profit over time by making +EV plays so that in long run, while you have many wins and losses, you still profit.
    Sometimes, you should single out people like this, because they give you valuable information with a why to it, not just a ''pound the spread, they're gonna get crushed'' answer. As he said, making +EV decisions, that is what will make you win.
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  24. 09-22-13 06:55 AM #24
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeahMichele View Post
    since everyone knows its all about EV not who you actually think will win, I was wondering,

    what ML would you need on the JAGS tommorow before you would put $100 on them. I was just wondering what point their ML will be + EV ? I know the +1600 isnt enough because they are going to lose, but would + 5000 make it + EV ?
    there is not a point in which Jags ML has value.
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