This is one of those times where betting online has the advantage.
I would LOVE to watch the first set and root for Nadal to take it, then hop on Joker for the value. Matter a fact if I recall, Nadal has been the better first set guy in this matchup lately.
The fact of the matter is if you have live betting access, there is always great value to take whoever loses the first set, because neither of these guys give up in a match (Nadal 110% NEVER quits a point, Joker can slack at times conserving energy).
Unfortunately in Vegas live betting barely exists and what they do offer is brutal and definitely doesn't give tennis action. I won't be betting a big enough amount on it to make too big of a deal, but I think the + money on Chokeabitch requires an auto-bet while he's in his prime.