1. #36
    BennyBigNuts
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    Quote Originally Posted by JM92 View Post
    No doubt. Unless its clay court.

    Still, Nadal is playing so so well, that the truth is, this odds are well set. At least from my point of view and I hate Nadal. I'm hoping maybe Nadal gets an early lead and everyone is like " I knew it" and I can then get even better odds on Djokovic.
    This is one of those times where betting online has the advantage.
    I would LOVE to watch the first set and root for Nadal to take it, then hop on Joker for the value. Matter a fact if I recall, Nadal has been the better first set guy in this matchup lately.
    The fact of the matter is if you have live betting access, there is always great value to take whoever loses the first set, because neither of these guys give up in a match (Nadal 110% NEVER quits a point, Joker can slack at times conserving energy).
    Unfortunately in Vegas live betting barely exists and what they do offer is brutal and definitely doesn't give tennis action. I won't be betting a big enough amount on it to make too big of a deal, but I think the + money on Chokeabitch requires an auto-bet while he's in his prime.

  2. #37
    Bet10Heinekens
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    Here is a preview, I bolded some of the key stats and info which I think is important.



    US OPEN 2013
    STATISTICAL PREVIEW: DJOKOVIC VS NADAL
    New York, U.S.A.

    Nadal has been broken just once this tournament
    IBM provides a statistical preview of Monday's US Open final between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.


    Match-up: Nadal leads the FedEx ATP Head2Head 21-15 having won five of their last six meetings. Djokovic won seven straight from March 2011 through January 2012 including the 2012 Australian Open final which lasted five hours 53 minutes. Nadal won their last Grand Slam match earlier this year in Paris, 9-7 in the 5th set, in a relatively quick four hours 37 minutes.


    Nadal held serve 73 straight games before getting broken in the second set of his semi-final here and has done it with placement and variety rather than sheer power. He's been moving his serves around the box to both the Deuce and Ad courts, going at the body quite a bit, and has used his lethal forehand to finish what his serve sets up.


    When Djokovic was dominating Rafa in 2011, it was his two handed backhand crosscourt to the Nadal forehand that keyed his victories. Novak would use that shot to get Rafa deep and wide to his forehand side and that would open up the rest of the court. If Nadal answered back crosscourt, Djokovic had the down the line two hander (one of his favourite shots) and if Nadal hit his forehand down the line, Djokovic had a crosscourt forehand to make Nadal hit his backhand on the run. The challenge for Djokovic here is his backhand has not been as reliable as usual (32 backhand winners - 70 backhand unforced errors).




    Djokovic Highlights:
    • Solid consistent 1st serve - 69 per cent in play - 74 per cent 1st serve points won - won 61 per cent of 2nd serves
    • Dominating return of serve - generated 86 break points in 21 sets played - broke serve 38 times - broke serve 7 or more times in 4 of 6 matches
    • Forehand has been his weapon from the backcourt - 73 forehand winners (also had 77 forehand unforced errors)


    Nadal Highlights:
    • Amazing serving - broken just once in the tournament - faced only 12 break points in 19 sets played
    • Dominating forehand from the baseline - 113 forehand winners
    • Great play at net - won 108 of 133 net approaches (81 per cent)


    Novak Djokovic Rafael Nadal
    42 Aces 17
    12 Double Faults 8
    28% Unreturned Serves 24%
    69% 1st Serve % 67%
    74% 1st Serve Points 80%
    61% 2nd Serve Points 64%
    10 Broken 1
    31 Break Points Faced 12
    88 Games Served 82
    89% Service Games Held 99%
    128mph Fastest Serve 125mph
    78% Returns In Play 75%
    41% 1st Return Points Won 35%
    58% 2nd Return Points Won 59%
    38 Breaks Of Serve 33
    86 Break Points 63
    44% Pct. Converted 52%
    86 Return Games Played 83
    44% Return Games Won % 40%
    73 Forehand Winners 113
    77 Forehand Unforced Errors 80
    32 Backhand Winners 28
    70 Backhand Unforced Errors 39
    206 Winners 206
    167 Unforced Errors 130
    136 of 184 Net Points Won 108 of 133
    74% Net Points Won % 81%
    57% Baseline Points Won 58%
    58 Games Lost 52
    3 Sets Lost 1
    12:55 Time On Court 12:59


    Nadal is playing with a more agressive attack this year. Defense is his strong suit, but I like how he's going for more winners instead of getting the ball back in play.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Russian Rocket

  3. #38
    InTheDrink
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    Quote Originally Posted by Russian Rocket View Post
    Drinker I can't believe you picked Nadal here...Drinker you were all in on Djoker for so long
    rocker you are correct

    rocker know when to hold em

    rocker know when to fold em

    rocker nadal has lost one set and is very fresh

    rocker i did not expect him to cruise through his draw quite like this

  4. #39
    InTheDrink
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    Quote Originally Posted by BennyBigNuts View Post
    This is one of those times where betting online has the advantage.
    I would LOVE to watch the first set and root for Nadal to take it, then hop on Joker for the value. Matter a fact if I recall, Nadal has been the better first set guy in this matchup lately.
    The fact of the matter is if you have live betting access, there is always great value to take whoever loses the first set, because neither of these guys give up in a match (Nadal 110% NEVER quits a point, Joker can slack at times conserving energy).
    Unfortunately in Vegas live betting barely exists and what they do offer is brutal and definitely doesn't give tennis action. I won't be betting a big enough amount on it to make too big of a deal, but I think the + money on Chokeabitch requires an auto-bet while he's in his prime.
    i agree with this

    i picked up a few bucks at little to no risk in last year's final via live betting

  5. #40
    yisman
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    enlighten me then
    Djokovic's true colors have been displayed since 2011.

    If you've followed tennis during that span, you know what kind of player he is.

    Even the best player doesn't win every major.

    These are Djokovic's "true colors":

    Australian Open Novak Djokovic (1) Andy Murray (3



    Australian Open Novak Djokovic (1) Rafael Nadal (2)

    US Open Novak Djokovic (1) Rafael Nadal (2)


    Wimbledon Novak Djokovic (2) Rafael Nadal (1)


    Australian Open Novak Djokovic (3) Andy Murray (5)

  6. #41
    yisman
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    Djokovic is 1-1 vs. Nadal at the US Open.

    all hard courts: Djokovic is 11-5 vs. Nadal by my count

  7. #42
    yisman
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    Some bets at Heritage:

    9/9/2013 9:04AM Money Line 84.00 60.00 Tennis - 997009 N. Djokovic (Most Double Faults) -140 for Game

    9/8/2013 11:23PM Spread 66.00 55.00 Tennis - 4265 N. Djokovic (Games) +2½ -120 for Game

    9/8/2013 11:37PM Money Line 200.00 270.00 Tennis - 4261 N. Djokovic +135 for Game

  8. #43
    jjgold
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    Forget gimmick bets

    Suckers bet them

  9. #44
    Allure
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    Djoker. All this Nadal love on SBR is a reason to go with Djokovic.

  10. #45
    Ambition
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    Quote Originally Posted by Allure View Post
    Djoker. All this Nadal love on SBR is a reason to go with Djokovic.
    Oh, it's not just SBR, it's everywhere. Nadal is on another level in this tournament. Against Gasquet was the first time he was broken all tournament. He still cruised into the final against him in straight sets while Djoker was struggling against Wawrinka in a 5setter. Djoker played a 4 hour match, a 21 minute game alone, and I think is a little drained from that match. I know they got the day off but, you need more than a day after that match. Rafa will win this match in 4 sets, kind of easily. This is just like Wimbledon, everyone knew Murray had it, everyone was on Murray, this is just like that match. It's Rafa's match too lose.

  11. #46
    Hardcoar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BennyBigNuts View Post
    Don't understand how chokeabitch is getting no line respect just because of a couple long matches recently.
    Guy is an absolute machine. Is he hurt a little?

    For anyone who doesn't realize it, today is your chance to watch the 2 SICKEST ATHLETES ON THE PLANET go at it.
    My respect for both of these guys just as athletes alone has gone through the roof after watching a couple of their epic battles the last 2 years.
    I like the plus money on Chokeabitch, and think he should be bet anytime you see him as a dog at least for another couple years.

    Wanna know the biggest lock of this match?
    OVER 213 on how many times Nadal picks his asscrack during the match.
    This is by far the best post you have ever made.

  12. #47
    STAY STRONG
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    Quote Originally Posted by Allure View Post
    Djoker. All this Nadal love on SBR is a reason to go with Djokovic.
    Flawed logic. Using SBR as your sample size is way too small. Everyone on SBR was on Serena yesterday and she won.

  13. #48
    InTheDrink
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    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    Djokovic is 1-1 vs. Nadal at the US Open.

    all hard courts: Djokovic is 11-5 vs. Nadal by my count
    The way nadal has been dominating on hard courts the last six weeks you can throw this out.

  14. #49
    artyfudgepacker
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    rocket what about sets? nadel 3-2

  15. #50
    yisman
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    Quote Originally Posted by InTheDrink View Post
    The way nadal has been dominating on hard courts the last six weeks you can throw this out.
    Can never throw out HTH numbers.

  16. #51
    horja1
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    Quote Originally Posted by greenhippo View Post
    Parlayed Serena -4.5 and Djok so I have to stick with my guy here, no hedge.
    and you espect to get hit by luck twice?

  17. #52
    horja1
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    Nadal wins 3-1

  18. #53
    Russian Rocket
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    Quote Originally Posted by artyfudgepacker View Post
    rocket what about sets? nadel 3-2
    not touching that ...too crazy to call Fudger

  19. #54
    firedawg
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    Nadal in 4 sets

  20. #55
    Winner_13
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    I got jker last night at better odds and over 41.5 games

  21. #56
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Russian Rocket View Post
    Who you got?

    I'm on Nadal -3 +125
    when is the match?

  22. #57
    bravo101
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    Nadal is on a heater right now, and djoker's down the line backhand isn't it's usual self lately... I got a small amount though, tryin to get free grocery money... Hopefully I'll be eating good this week lol

  23. #58
    Russian Rocket
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    Quote Originally Posted by big bear View Post
    when is the match?
    2pm pt

  24. #59
    odog11
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    Quote Originally Posted by BennyBigNuts View Post
    This is one of those times where betting online has the advantage.
    I would LOVE to watch the first set and root for Nadal to take it, then hop on Joker for the value. Matter a fact if I recall, Nadal has been the better first set guy in this matchup lately.
    The fact of the matter is if you have live betting access, there is always great value to take whoever loses the first set, because neither of these guys give up in a match (Nadal 110% NEVER quits a point, Joker can slack at times conserving energy).
    Unfortunately in Vegas live betting barely exists and what they do offer is brutal and definitely doesn't give tennis action. I won't be betting a big enough amount on it to make too big of a deal, but I think the + money on Chokeabitch requires an auto-bet while he's in his prime.
    What kind of odds would you expect for Joker if Nadal takes the first set, say 6-4? If he crushes in the first set I am staying away from it for sure, guy has looked filthy, no..... make that nasty.

  25. #60
    face
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    i bet on rafa but rooting for djoker
    i just try to bet on who i think will win and not who i want to win

  26. #61
    Russian Rocket
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    Quote Originally Posted by face View Post
    i bet on rafa but rooting for djoker
    i just try to bet on who i think will win and not who i want to win
    that's one hell of a strategy you got going there Face

  27. #62
    face
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    Quote Originally Posted by Russian Rocket View Post
    that's one hell of a strategy you got going there Face

    win win

  28. #63
    Russian Rocket
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    Quote Originally Posted by face View Post

    win win

  29. #64
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Russian Rocket View Post
    2pm pt
    so 5pm east. nice i guess many will parlay this with MNF and MLB

  30. #65
    greenhippo
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    I constantly bet against the Astros. If they lose I win, if they win my team won.

  31. #66
    Russian Rocket
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    so 5pm east. nice i guess many will parlay this with MNF and MLB
    my guess would be that many would bet this a straight bet

  32. #67
    InTheDrink
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    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    Can never throw out HTH numbers.
    then you'd be going down the wrong path

    nadal is playing the best tennis of his career and is 100%

    if you tell me how many of those matches he was 100% and the ones he was injured then I'd consider the numbers....at face value theyre worthless

  33. #68
    Jaug
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    Everyone on Nadal JOKER is the play

  34. #69
    yisman
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    Quote Originally Posted by InTheDrink View Post
    then you'd be going down the wrong path

    nadal is playing the best tennis of his career and is 100%

    if you tell me how many of those matches he was 100% and the ones he was injured then I'd consider the numbers....at face value theyre worthless
    They're not worthless.

    If you have a large enough sample, HTH is the most valuable of all the numbers.

    Just because one guy is playing particularly well doesn't mean HTH becomes worthless.

    If you want to start parsing each match, I guess anything pre-2011 for Djokovic is worthless because that's when he became the best in the world? No. It all factors in.

    Nadal wasn't injured in any of those matches. Was he 100% physically? Probably, or close to it, considering how he performed otherwise in the tournaments where he lost to Djokovic.

  35. #70
    Demonata
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    Nadal today. Looked comfortable the whole tournament.

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