1. #1
    LT Profits
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    I'll Have what Andy Pettitte's Having (Red Sox / Yankees Under 9)

    41-years old, looked to be just about done early in the year, and now out of nowhere has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. That includes one start vs. Boston where he did not allow an earned run in 6.2 innings. He now has a 2.14 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in three starts vs. the Red Sox this year.

    Felix Doubront had a rough outing vs. the White Sox last time out, but I'll forgive him that considering he has been amazingly consistent this year, allowing three earned runs or less in 18 out of 19 starts before that last outing. More Here.

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  2. #2
    Big Bear
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    how much is sbr paying u to be a mod guey?

  3. #3
    LT Profits
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    $3.00/hr

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  4. #4
    Mike Huntertz
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    Pettites lifetime numbers against BoSoxs are terrible.
    Looking for a return to the norm and took the over as Yanks bats are hot also.
    One of us will be smiling.

  5. #5
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Huntertz View Post
    Pettites lifetime numbers against BoSoxs are terrible.
    Looking for a return to the norm and took the over as Yanks bats are hot also.
    One of us will be smiling.
    Lifetime numbers vs. teams doesn't mean anything though, I only put some weight on current season. Some have argued that even that is meaningless though due to small sampling, so overall performance still trumps all.

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  6. #6
    darrell74
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    I went to leave a comment on the page,
    it said I had to log in using facebook/yahoo account.
    SBR account wouldn't work

  7. #7
    Down_Goes Bookie
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    Ellsbury out of the lineup tonight with a foot issue. There's a plus for the under.

  8. #8
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Lifetime numbers vs. teams doesn't mean anything though, I only put some weight on current season. Some have argued that even that is meaningless though due to small sampling, so overall performance still trumps all.
    Lifetime numbers are a good handicapping tool. As a filter only. On their own merit they mean little. If you can validate them using current hitter versus pitch selection they are very strong either for or against.

    A batter can accumulate stats playing for different teams, batting in different lineup spots, with protection in the order or without. Conversely a pitcher's offerings can differ from year to year based on health, manager, catcher, game situation, time of year, venue etc.

    It has always been the most misunderstood approach to handicapping baseball.

  9. #9
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by Down_Goes Bookie View Post
    Ellsbury out of the lineup tonight with a foot issue. There's a plus for the under.
    I don't agree with that. It eliminates a lefty lefty matchup in the leadoff spot and improves speed without compromising one base percentage. Ellsbury is a good player but is banged up right know.

    No compromise here other than depth.

  10. #10
    Down_Goes Bookie
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    I don't agree with that. It eliminates a lefty lefty matchup in the leadoff spot and improves speed without compromising one base percentage. Ellsbury is a good player but is banged up right know.

    No compromise here other than depth.
    Ellsbury has a .333 avg vs. Pettitte over his career and a .375 OBP. Removing that bat and speed doesn't compromise the Sox lineup? OK if you say so...

  11. #11
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by Down_Goes Bookie View Post
    Ellsbury has a .333 avg vs. Pettitte over his career and a .375 OBP. Removing that bat and speed doesn't compromise the Sox lineup? OK if you say so...
    I get what your premise is. Do you think that the line on today's game reflects the past stats of Jacoby Ellsbury against Andy Petite or the insertion of Victorino in the leadoff spot in his stead.

    Wager on what is going to happen. Not was has.

  12. #12
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by Down_Goes Bookie View Post
    Ellsbury has a .333 avg vs. Pettitte over his career and a .375 OBP. Removing that bat and speed doesn't compromise the Sox lineup? OK if you say so...
    I understand your premise however misleading it may be. Do you think today's line is reflective of Jacoby Ellsbury's past statistics or the insertion of Victorino in his stead.

    Bet on what is going to happen not what already has.

    The correct angle on this is that Andy Petite's righty lefty spits are dumbfoundingly polarized. BA a whopping 114 points higher against righties and OPS about 250 higher.

    In sitting Ellsbury we get another righty (Gomes/Nava) in the lineup.

  13. #13
    Down_Goes Bookie
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    I understand your premise however misleading it may be. Do you think today's line is reflective of Jacoby Ellsbury's past statistics or the insertion of Victorino in his stead.

    Bet on what is going to happen not what already has.

    The correct angle on this is that Andy Petite's righty lefty spits are dumbfoundingly polarized. BA a whopping 114 points higher against righties and OPS about 250 higher.

    In sitting Ellsbury we get another righty (Gomes/Nava) in the lineup.
    For me the correct angle is that Ellsbury is a game-breaking stud who hits lefties nearly as well as righties, .287 vs. .302 lifetime. He happens to make a particularly good read of Pettitte. As for Nava / Gomes, neither of them matches Ellsbury, and both of them are hitting worse vs. LHP this year than RHP. No matter, I'm staying off this one anyhow.

  14. #14
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by Down_Goes Bookie View Post
    For me the correct angle is that Ellsbury is a game-breaking stud who hits lefties nearly as well as righties, .287 vs. .302 lifetime. He happens to make a particularly good read of Pettitte. As for Nava / Gomes, neither of them matches Ellsbury, and both of them are hitting worse vs. LHP this year than RHP. No matter, I'm staying off this one anyhow.
    Me too, not a nickle in this dime.

    Good luck on your next

  15. #15
    leetreaper
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Lifetime numbers vs. teams doesn't mean anything though, I only put some weight on current season. Some have argued that even that is meaningless though due to small sampling, so overall performance still trumps all.
    Of course they do, are you serious?

  16. #16
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by leetreaper View Post
    Of course they do, are you serious?
    You have to realize in Pettitte's case, lifetime numbers go back to the days of Ted Williams. Obviously exaggerating for effect but you get my point. Not too much weight should be put on pitcher vs. TEAM for past years because the teams are always different. Pitcher vs. BATTERS holds more weight, but even there you don't want to go back too far. And then there are cases like a few days ago with Max Scherzer vs. Red Sox where a pitcher has improved so much this year that past numbers before this year are close to meaningless.

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  17. #17
    Down_Goes Bookie
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    Quote Originally Posted by billysink View Post
    Me too, not a nickle in this dime.

    Good luck on your next
    Same to you let's everybody hit a couple beauties tonight.

  18. #18
    Mike Huntertz
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    What an insane wild game.....................

  19. #19
    pavyracer
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    Both teams could cover the total..lol

    Nice capping LT!
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
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  20. #20
    TheMLBKing
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    why people aren't just blindly fading OP is beyond me.

  21. #21
    wagerjunkie
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    it's amazing how they dismantled that super star team last year and tried to imulate that team of what did they call themselves, the "idiots" team that one the first world series to break the curse.

    what a turn around this team has made. the really are emulating that first world series team. just the characters/goofballs on the team and the over all character and fight...never say die attitude

  22. #22
    jjgold
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    Most guys got buried tonight

    Rolls are low heading into Saturday

  23. #23
    wagerjunkie
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Most guys got buried tonight

    Rolls are low heading into Saturday
    betting baseball is -EV right now

    people need to stick to Tennis/UFC/College Foots

    MLB/NFL will bury bank rolls

  24. #24
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Both teams could cover the total..lol

    Nice capping LT!
    Hey if you are going to lose, do it with flare! Better than losing nail-biters that keep you up at night.

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  25. #25
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMLBKing View Post
    why people aren't just blindly fading OP is beyond me.
    This makes me 3-3 in posted MLB threads for a slight PROFIT, thanks to Brewers over Pirates. And I don't think I've steered anyone wrong in foots yet on completed games (leans to Broncos Over and Boston College).

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  26. #26
    jjgold
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    I think Petite is finished

    Yankees need an entire new roster

    Way too old for mlb

  27. #27
    Smoke
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    You still having what andy is having?

  28. #28
    Mike Huntertz
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Hey if you are going to lose, do it with flare! Better than losing nail-biters that keep you up at night.
    You have to make a pick to lose.
    A lot of troll losers here who never pick!
    Keep 'em comin' LT
    GL

  29. #29
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    You still having what andy is having?
    Juice wore off.

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  30. #30
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Juice wore off.
    unrael

  31. #31
    Footballtime
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    Doesnt matter who is pitching when the Redsox and Yanks play, these games go OVER. Its an automtic over play for the last 8 years everytime they play each other......

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