1. #1
    LT Profits
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    Brewers Look Like Live Underdogs Wednesday Night

    Liriano has great numbers overall for Pirates, but he has not been as consistent as he was early on with a couple of recent clunkers vs. Rockies and Giants. Yes, those were sandwiched between allowing a total of one run in three other starts, but which Liriano shows up today and, more importantly, do you want to pay this premium to find out? Remember that Milwaukee is hitting lefties well right now, batting .274 and averaging a whopping 6.48 runs per game against them the last 10.

    Peralta has gotten better as the season has gone on for Brewers, and he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his last 13 starts. Pirates may be winning, but they are still only batting .239 vs. righties overall and this will be their first time ever facing Peralta.

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  2. #2
    Smoke
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    I would not bet against liriano

    Brewers might get shut out today

    Pirates rl or no play

  3. #3
    Louisvillekid1
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    I took Brewers +146 last night...

    My only play tonight

    Pirates celebrating too much after winning #81
    Last edited by Louisvillekid1; 09-04-13 at 01:14 PM.

  4. #4
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    I would not bet against liriano

    Brewers might get shut out today

    Pirates rl or no play
    The "good" Liriano yeah, but he has been hit or miss all of a sudden and Brew Crew is hitting lefties. Worth the pop at price methinnks.

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  5. #5
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Pirates celebrating too much after winning #81
    And I didn't even mention this!

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  6. #6
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    The "good" Liriano yeah, but he has been hit or miss all of a sudden and Brew Crew is hitting lefties. Worth the pop at price methinnks.
    Value wise yes but theres no value if it doesnt win

  7. #7
    tblues2005
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    I think that they could get caught looking ahead here tonight. Milwaukee could easily win tonight.

  8. #8
    BIGDAY
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    Profiter might be onto something.

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  9. #9
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    no value if it doesnt win
    Not true at all and don't get me started on why

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  10. #10
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Not true at all and don't get me started on why
    I would like to hear

  11. #11
    Louisvillekid1
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    Value wise yes but theres no value if it doesnt win
    I'm lost here as well

  12. #12
    Louisvillekid1
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    I would like to hear
    Common Smoke,

    Google expected value...

  13. #13
    EXhoosier10
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    What's with the discussion all of the sudden, LT?

  14. #14
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Common Smoke,

    Google expected value...
    Im saying for instance if someone bets $100 risk on marlins instead of $100 risk on pirates and pirates win how was that value?

  15. #15
    pimike
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    Big L is a stopper

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  16. #16
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    I would like to hear
    In simplest terms, let us say you are reasonably accurate at assigning expected percentage of a team winning. Then lets say you give a team a 40% chance of winning and the odds are +200. That is mad +EV on the dog, even though the odds are still less than 50% of winning that ONE game.

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  17. #17
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by EXhoosier10 View Post
    What's with the discussion all of the sudden, LT?
    Fulfilling my new snazzy title.

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  18. #18
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    In simplest terms, let us say you are reasonably accurate at assigning expected percentage of a team winning. Then lets say you give a team a 40% chance of winning and the odds are +200. That is mad +EV on the dog, even though the odds are still less than 50% of winning that ONE game.
    yes but if you lose....you lose your money and win nothing so wheres the value? Yes theres value before the game starts and if you win but if you lose wheres the value

  19. #19
    goduke
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    brewers have lost 5 in a row, they consistently strand runners, they got swept by the angels. And some have said theyve been the play for the last 5 games...all losses. No way i would touch this team

  20. #20
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    yes but if you lose....you lose your money and win nothing so wheres the value? Yes theres value before the game starts and if you win but if you lose wheres the value
    Because if your estimations are close to accurate and you make those same bets over and over, you win in the long run which is all that matters.

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  21. #21
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    In simplest terms, let us say you are reasonably accurate at assigning expected percentage of a team winning. Then lets say you give a team a 40% chance of winning and the odds are +200. That is mad +EV on the dog, even though the odds are still less than 50% of winning that ONE game.
    I agree with smoke here. I only consider the dog to have value if I see them winning atleast 50% of the time, and even 50% is extremely low, so more lime 65% of the time. Id never put money on a team that I feel will only win 40% or less of the time, dog or not. To me there is no value because they're likely to lose

  22. #22
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    Value wise yes but theres no value if it doesnt win
    I'm now fully convinced that you and Ice are the same person.


  23. #23
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    yes but if you lose....you lose your money and win nothing so wheres the value? Yes theres value before the game starts and if you win but if you lose wheres the value
    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    Im saying for instance if someone bets $100 risk on marlins instead of $100 risk on pirates and pirates win how was that value?
    You have no business gambling. Period. Get out now while you still can (who am I kidding -- as if you aren't out of the game already).

  24. #24
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    I'm now fully convinced that you and Ice are the same person.

    Thanks guey that means im better looking than you

  25. #25
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    You have no business gambling. Period. Get out now while you still can (who am I kidding -- as if you aren't out of the game already).
    This coming from a guey who stares at line movements 12 hours a day

  26. #26
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    I agree with smoke here. I only consider the dog to have value if I see them winning atleast 50% of the time, and even 50% is extremely low, so more lime 65% of the time. Id never put money on a team that I feel will only win 40% or less of the time, dog or not. To me there is no value because they're likely to lose

  27. #27
    Louisvillekid1
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    Smoke

    I have 3 apples (2 Red & 1 Green)

    Put them each in a different brown bag (can't see in)

    I offer you even money to pick a Red Apple

    You agree and Pick the Green one

    Would you not like to play again?

  28. #28
    gauchojake
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    Hey smoke, how do you like them apples? Boom.
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  29. #29
    Gradius
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    LT: The concept of probability seems to be lost, here.

  30. #30
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post

    I agree with smoke here. I only consider the dog to have value if I see them winning atleast 50% of the time, and even 50% is extremely low, so more lime 65% of the time. Id never put money on a team that I feel will only win 40% or less of the time, dog or not. To me there is no value because they're likely to lose
    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    You guys are too hung up on winning percentage when the ultimate goal should be to make money. Who cares if you have a winning percentage of 40% if your average price is, let's say, +165? If I could do that, I'd gladly take that over winning 60% but losing money because average price was -155.

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  31. #31
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Smoke

    I have 3 apples (2 Red & 1 Green)

    Put them each in a different brown bag (can't see in)

    I offer you even money to pick a Red Apple

    You agree and Pick the Green one

    Would you not like to play again?
    But thats 67%...much greater than 40%
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  32. #32
    Louisvillekid1
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    But thats 67%...much greater than 40%
    Just simplifying it

    Can use any #'s that provide +ev

  33. #33
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Smoke

    I have 3 apples (2 Red & 1 Green)

    Put them each in a different brown bag (can't see in)

    I offer you even money to pick a Red Apple

    You agree and Pick the Green one

    Would you not like to play again?
    no because I just lost. No value

  34. #34
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    But thats 67%...much greater than 40%
    Lkid buried

  35. #35
    Louisvillekid1
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    Yupp,

    You guys got me...

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