[stevenash]

Bullet point reasons as to why

- Boston bullpen was spent last night, they don't have many pen arms available tonight.
If Lester gets shelled early, he may have to take one for the team.

- That six hour flight from Boston to SF is a killer under any circumstances.
Usually I don't make that much of a deal in coast to coast travel, has to be a factor tonight.
I am not sure if Red Sox are even in California yet. Their game last night ended after midnight.

- National League Park
No DH, install Papi at first base tonight, or lose his bat.
Despite what some of you might say, Ortiz is not a mediocre first baseman, he is sub par, and that is being nice.

- The current regular batters on the Red Sox that used to play in the NL (Drew, Victorino) that faced Timmy on a regular basis in the past have had zero success against Timmy.

- SF hits left handed pitching very well
Scutaro is .331 this year v. LHP, and pretty much hit .330 against Lester when he was in the AL
Pence has plus power v. LHP and is batting .309 overall v. LHP
Posey is batting .319 v. LHP
Belt is batting .291 v. LHP
(fun fact, look it up) Timmy is batting .500 v. LHP 3 for 6

- Home underdogs
They usually do me well

- Plus money in coin flip situations
Line is sitting Boston -126/+116
This game s/be ev/ev
Love betting + money in even up propositions

This has to be mentioned if you are going to tail me.
You don't know what Timmy is going to show up.
He has been lights out several times this year.
He has been God awful several times this year.

Good Timmy shows up tonight, at home, against a worn out Sox team.
2* +116

[Big Bear]

no chance in hell the Giants win

[stevenash]

no chance in hell the Giants win

OK, for me to respect this post, tell me why?

[Big Bear]

The Giants have a mental block about hitting at home.

Visiting teams do not.

[Big Bear]

other teams come in there with the attitude its just another ball park.


just my opinion

[simmy17]

Agree with everything youve mentioned.. Still cant pull the trigger on the giants been a bomb scare at times this year

[Big Bear]

Shouldnt have said no chance in hell but i would be shocked if the Red Sox don't win.

Ive just seen so many time good hitting teams come into san francisco and pound the Giants.

the last team to come to mind is the Reds when they came out and took 3 out of 4

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Totally agree with OP. The flight alone is enough reason. The Sox played past midnight last night, then have to pack up, go home, get some quick rest, then fly coast to coast and basically head straight to the ballpark. Lincecum ain't what he used to be......but still the Sox are basically unfamiliar with him. I don't remember any team ever having a more challenging bit of scheduling than Boston does in this game. SF is the call!

[teaserpleaser]

like the over lester is a bum and you never know with timmey may give up 1 look like an Ace may give up 6 in 3 innings

[will2survive]

I love this play. A 3000 mile trip overnight for the Red Sox to think about Arod and the Yankees getting the best of them. Lincecum is capable of top-notch performances.

[bubblebuttluv]

As I said yesterday, I know enough to roll with Nash when I can't figure out a baseball game. GL all.

[joco]

im on giants ml and giants rl. already on it before i saw ur thread. lester pitched well his last 2 starts and the red sox still lost both those games...that considered in combination with the traveling and the emotional series against the yankees and the game ending late last nite...im all over giants...lets get it

[mandude]

The Sox didn't leave last night. They stayed over night in Boston & left early this morning. Not a good situation to be in with a late game getting almost no rest and then have to wake up early & catch a red eye for a 6 hour flight out west. This play is on the Giants or no play.

[Vinnie Paz]

Good Timmy never shows up for me

[Darkside Magick]

Legit play here...

[Big Bear]

Big Papi tweeted that he got some sleep on the airplane and when he got to san francisco he went to china town for a nice massage and happy ending.

He said quote
" I feel like a new man"

[No coincidences]

Couldn't agree more, nasher.

[No coincidences]

The Giants have a mental block about hitting at home.

Visiting teams do not.

I've said it before and I'm sure I'll say it again: you get dumber by the post.

[Big Bear]

I've said it before and I'm sure I'll say it again: you get dumber by the post.

i'm putting you on my ignore list.

[No coincidences]

i'm putting you on my ignore list.

Think about what you just said as a response.

Read it out loud if you have to. It's beyond asinine. A "mental block about hitting at home"?

[AchillesTG]

It's a little juicy, but you could hedge "bad Timmy" and take the Giants RL.

[Big Bear]

Think about what you just said as a response.

Read it out loud if you have to. It's beyond asinine. A "mental block about hitting at home"?

SAn Francisco is the worst place to hit in the major leagues especially at night.

The Giants can't attract any good hitting free agents since barry bonds bc of this.

The Giants almost never put up runs at home. And when they go on the road they hit MUCH better.

My theory is that opposing teams treat this like any other park and the Giants can't help but letting this cause them to have a mental block that they cant hit at home.

Sure the Giants pitchers , pitch better at home but this park is often a slump buster for pitchers who are struggling.

I hate betting the Giants at home b/c if they get down 3-0 its game over.

[stevenash]

• Giants are 10-3 in their last 13 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Giants are 27-11 in their last 38 interleague home games.
• Giants are 17-7 in their last 24 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Giants are 14-6 in their last 20 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.

Like I said in post 1
They like LHP

[BigDeem5]

Love it nasher

[italianbandit]

Agree. Good luck. The most difficult time to hit at AT&T is during times of heavy fog. SF has the coldest summer temperatures of any US city partly because of it. Historically the heaviest times of fog are from June 15-Aug 15. The forecast is showing no fog tonight but that can change, I'll know more right before game time, I work right by it. Interestingly Lincecum prefers to pitch in colder weather.

[frogsrangers]

Have already said Red Sox are on auto fade for this west coast trip

[PickoMoff]

Women lie, men lie but numbers don't lie! Since the only game I see to bet on is ARI at +155, I think I'll roll with Nasher tonight as well!

BOL

[stevenash]

Women lie, men lie but numbers don't lie! Since the only game I see to bet on is ARI at +155, I think I'll roll with Nasher tonight as well!

BOL

Liars figure, figures don't lie

[No coincidences]

SAn Francisco is the worst place to hit in the major leagues especially at night.

The Giants can't attract any good hitting free agents since barry bonds bc of this.

The Giants almost never put up runs at home. And when they go on the road they hit MUCH better.

My theory is that opposing teams treat this like any other park and the Giants can't help but letting this cause them to have a mental block that they cant hit at home.

Sure the Giants pitchers , pitch better at home but this park is often a slump buster for pitchers who are struggling.

I hate betting the Giants at home b/c if they get down 3-0 its game over.

I don't even really know how to respond to this, so I'm just going to let the sleeping dog lie.

[artyfudgepacker]

rolling with nashy $$$$

[ZetaPsi808]

no chance in hell the Giants win

thats all i needed to read

i am pounding giants ml for a nickle

[ZetaPsi808]

i'm putting you on my ignore list.

Big Bear dont let these guys get to you man. Keep doing your thing.

Hey would you mind posting your daily plays on the forum? i like your angle about how the giants dont hit well and i want to tail you in the future

thanks ace

[Footballtime]

Boys, Lets not forget SF was also traveling from Miami back to the west coast......Redsox stayed in Boston overnight, Left Logan at 10 am this morning! Absolute Coin flip here....................... Who knows which Lester Or Lincecum shows up tonight,, Both can give up 10 runs or none.......

[innovation]

My fear is this Giant's offense "rights the ship" for Lester going forward.


I think Under is the safe play here.....if it comes down to who gets the crucial hit late...Long flight or not Sox should have the edge and motivation.

[konck]

Steve ...... that is a text book example of how to cap MLB find value play it back it up with your reasonWin lose or draw good job