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Two great value games today
KC +100
John Lackey is not a great pitcher, granted neither is James Shields, but I think I give the edge to Shields here. Lackey has really been struggling lately, a lot like Cliff Lee. To get KC @ +100 at home against Lackey is solid.
Phillies +200
Against Strasburg. Common now. +200? Strasburg? Really?
Guess we'll see but this one doesn't make sense. Win, Lose or draw, I like the Phillies at this number.
Patty is that me getting knocked out?
Patty, get on the A's +108 as well
ill give u kc +100 listed pitchers u penetrate up to 48 points
Add the Giants -113
UNreal value all over the board today boys. Watch out, do NOT fade today boys
Oh wait you're not a fukkin sbr pro
On KC
Coming off an 0-5 yesterday
watch out
Kraken get on danny garcia +235 in boxing over lucas mathysse at 5dimes. Line will close much lower september 14th
I'll bet you pride and ego for a day.Originally Posted by ApricotSinner32
Oh wait you're not a fukkin sbr pro
KC wins, you start a thread proclaiming my greatness. RedSox win, I'll reciprocate the love. All that plus 2 points is all I have to bet.
Thx Patty, love beating closers. thats half the battle, getting value. You're one of the best at finding it.
on it
Avatar bet for 1 month we each choose which one we want the other person to use.
Tricky stuff on the board..don't get fooled
My first thought was if it looks to good to be true, blah blah blah.....
But I'm just looking for value against my model, and these games have it. So do the dodgers. So I'm on all of them today. -180's don't scare me if it's a good play.
should we parlay them would pay nicely
I'd RR before I'd parlay them. But I'm not parlaying them or RR them. Just straight bets.
I rarely try to hit a jackpot. I used to parlay everything and was always reloading. Now I look to average a unit/day. And as I've gotten older and wiser I realize that adds up quick.
2 teamers are great...they basically a straight bet in my mind
I like the KC pick, great value, but have Bal rather then SF, Bud Norris i think will shut down SF offense, and Cain gets lit for a few runs. GL kraken
wise words. set a goal and stick to it. unit/day aint bad. mines +5unit/week
I'd RR before I'd parlay them. But I'm not parlaying them or RR them. Just straight bets.
I rarely try to hit a jackpot. I used to parlay everything and was always reloading. Now I look to average a unit/day. And as I've gotten older and wiser I realize that adds up quick.
shields gave up 7 runs vs the minny twins last week. will he turn it around?
strasburg pitching at home. vs kendrick.
Kraken and brock landers's theme song
Cold as fukkin ice with your picks pal
Assuming both bets are -110 (.5238) at 20c lines, no vig is +100 or .50, so true odds of both winning are (.50)(.50)=.25 or 25%
To break even you'd need to be getting 2.9'ish:1 on your $$$ to just break even and at 5D, payout is 2.64:1 @-110
So the play itself is actually -ev, unless the two separate bets are each +ev, then a 2-teamer can be +ev but usually -ev.
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Thanks for the math kraken...not a big math guy...I just bet..I win more that way..when people put too much math and use terms like "ev" they tend to be losers....
yea like the casinos all around the world they are all losing because of their ev calculatations
nuff said!
Losers in life maybe but inside gambling if they are doing it right i doubt they are losing....
When the math cappers came on the scene they did have a advantage but bookmakers have the same math guys who looking at the same stuff as the math capper and already figure in the line. The math capper have to have something that no one else know to win now...a lot of math cappers getting crushed now. Even Dr Bob had to get help as these math models getting exposed
I understand where you're coming from. 99% of everything we have access to is already considered in the line.
However, books balance action most of the time (not all) and don't choose a side. By doing so, they open up windows of opportunity or value for bettors that have a way to quantify their edge.
But the good days are gone. The low hanging apples aren't so low hanging anymore. It's getting tougher. For me and I assume a lot of other guys as well, it's no longer worth the time I'd have to put in to do it right considering the payout at the end. Could I win long term? yes, have done it. Can I win enough? Probably not anymore. So I move on.
Good points though DM. But math isn't dead nor useless and there are still angles that only math guys can exploit consistently but they've both gotten more acute (
Yes you can use it to quantify your "edge" ...but math capper better have something no one know and don't tell no one or go tout
Thats because he is Chi_Archies ghost he has about 6 of them thats how SBR pays him now just go look to see which ghost post in the same thread like 3 or 4 mins apart. Archie signed on as Archie instead of Kracken while he was ebattling BennysbignatsOh wait you're not a fukkin sbr pro
Archie gets to post picks and run 5-15 for the week an just use the name that loses the least
Now TT is back they give him 15lbs of pizza a week uh oh Arch
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