[TPowell]

I agree with the earlier poster. Use 5-10 as your base and then 2-3 as your test years. The base tends to inflate things, so I think it would be beneficial to not include it.

[trytrytry]

of the 9 times now were all the plays you made overs compared to the vegas line by chance?

[Philyerglesion76]

I'm interested in seeing what the model says about the games coming up this week. Will you post them? If so, when?

[a4u2fear]

System "liked" two overs last week and went 1-1. Those plays have not been historically tracked so they were only leans, and it's a shame Rodgers was injured on the first drive otherwise the result may have been different.

I'm not going to try to convince other posters in the thread anymore about the worthiness of the system. The same arguments and cliches will be tossed around and whether I answer them or they are valid or not doesn't seem to matter so I'm done trying.

I want to state that the losses contained in the percentages posted, have not been looked at extensively to try to remove anything from the system. When the system says a play is to be made it is. Factors such as weather on that date, injuries, trends, are not used to remove any of those suggested plays. So if I were to go back and review all of the games played, I'm sure it would remove even more games due to injuries or weather, but the winning percentages were high enough where it wasn't worth it to go back and try to narrow down any games and probably thus complicate and invalidate the system further.

I'm working on updating my excel sheet and making the calcs for this week.

[a4u2fear]

This week's play is the over in SD/Den currently at 57. The system's similar model plays in the past are 8-1 for the point differential.

The model has had 2 plays so far. The first was Den/Ind over, it also only had Denver as 5 point favorites. In the Was/Den game, it had Denver as a 31 pt favorite. In this matchup, Denver is a 1 point favorite. Again, the model has been successful with totals only so proceed with caution.

I'm actually more intrigued by next weeks matchup between KC and Denver because of KC's 2nd ranked defense.

[Philyerglesion76]

In the first post of this thread, you mention the number of occurrences for the various differentials between Vegas and your system. Where does this SD/Den pick fall?

[a4u2fear]

Into 20 pt differential. 1-0 this year, 8-1 total

[CHUBNUT]

My example might be obvious but you should get what I mean:

You make the Denver-San Deigo Total 65 The opening total is 49 making this a bet according to your model. What your model hasnt taken into account is Peyton isnt playing. basically your model doesnt take into account the latest information, which the market does. Lack of latest information is the biggest reason mechanical systems dont work long term and sadly people are getting more and more lazy in their handicapping and incorporate these so called models.

The Books are laughing at bettors at the moment, either they're losing, following a nonsense system thats treading water or they close or reduce stake the sharper ones and software just gets better for them. I'm at the point of giving up as most bets are taking 5/6 bookmakers to put my bet on without resorting to pinnacle where quite frankly means no gain. There is no future in winning at sports betting because the Books are not interested in anything other than people losing all their wealth in casino play. They know that 99% of bettors no matter how sharp and disiplined they are will falter and either go on an uncontrolable losing run or go full tilt in their casino.

As Metallica say "sad but true"

[a4u2fear]

My example might be obvious but you should get what I mean:

You make the Denver-San Deigo Total 65 The opening total is 49 making this a bet according to your model. What your model hasnt taken into account is Peyton isnt playing. basically your model doesnt take into account the latest information, which the market does. Lack of latest information is the biggest reason mechanical systems dont work long term and sadly people are getting more and more lazy in their handicapping and incorporate these so called models.

The Books are laughing at bettors at the moment, either they're losing, following a nonsense system thats treading water or they close or reduce stake the sharper ones and software just gets better for them. I'm at the point of giving up as most bets are taking 5/6 bookmakers to put my bet on without resorting to pinnacle where quite frankly means no gain. There is no future in winning at sports betting because the Books are not interested in anything other than people losing all their wealth in casino play. They know that 99% of bettors no matter how sharp and disiplined they are will falter and either go on an uncontrolable losing run or go full tilt in their casino.

As Metallica say "sad but true"

Again you didn't listen.

No one in the world will tell you bet a high over if a key star isn't playing. What I said is (and you didn't read), look at how well the system has performed without using this information in the past. If Peyton Manning is deemed out tomorrow, then no one is betting over 57.5. It doesn't make sense even if the system says to play it. The offense of Denver is drastically different.

All the comment I made about not looking back at the losses and picking out games is that it provides more rigidness to the system.

The same lame ass comment is thrown out by 90% of the people out there. "Vegas doesn't lose money and blah blah blah." That's right, because most people are dumb. Not everyone loses money.

People hold Wang teaser's in such high regard when it was developed simply by looking at past results and teasing a side. It had zero to do with expected total scores and yards gained for each game. This is no bullshit bet the team after a home loss on a Thursday night before the 8th of December when playing an NFC opponent traveling from Japan to East Brumwick.

[a4u2fear]

I know people like teasers....

For a 13 point tease on this total, it is a perfect 100%, 20-0 in the model that this game first.

For a 10 point tease, it is 18-2.

For a 6 point tease, it is 16-4.

Keep in mind this is only for the point differential for this week.

[a4u2fear]

For a 7pt differential between my line and vegas, hits at 66.7% (60 occurrences)

For a 14pt differential between my line and vegas, hits at 79% (29 occurrences)

For a 20pt differential between my line and vegas, hits at 80.0% (10 occurrences)

Took a loss this week with Denver over. So far this season the system is 3-1.

[a4u2fear]

It's early, but it looks like there won't be any plays this week. Which is interesting because KC has a very good defense and Denver's offense wasn't as potent against San Diego.

So far the few games I have quickly checked are within a few points of the line - so no play.

[a4u2fear]

After taking last week off with no play, it appears the Denver New England over will be a play this week.

[Bruno Bets]

Interesting theory, sir. I hope that it pans out well for you.

[Bruno Bets]

After taking last week off with no play, it appears the Denver New England over will be a play this week.

I think that with TB hanging up 55 himself at home vs the Steelers/Polamalu and the #1 offense coming to town that we can sit back and watch the fur fly? 14 points per quarter is not too much to ask, IMO.

[a4u2fear]

I think that with TB hanging up 55 himself at home vs the Steelers/Polamalu and the #1 offense coming to town that we can sit back and watch the fur fly? 14 points per quarter is not too much to ask, IMO.

Yea man, let's hope for a shootout, but I will be watching the weather before locking in.

[SteveRyan]

Glad the system seems to be workin for ya. I think it's odd however that you are using Points Per Yard though. I actually can't find anything about it on the net.

I use Yards Per Point to compare offensive efficiency but have not considered PPY.

[Bruno Bets]

Yea man, let's hope for a shootout, but I will be watching the weather before locking in.

I've been told by some friends that it is currently about 15 degrees with an expected wind chill of near -8 tonight, FWIW....GL

[a4u2fear]

I've been told by some friends that it is currently about 15 degrees with an expected wind chill of near -8 tonight, FWIW....GL

Thanks. The past year's plays have never been secluded due to weather/injuries etc, so for the system it will be a play, but I may pass.

[Bruno Bets]

Good luck....Go Pats!

[Keelan]

Nice work

[a4u2fear]

For a 7pt differential between my line and vegas, hits at 67% (60 occurrences)

For a 14pt differential between my line and vegas, hits at 79% (29 occurrences)

For a 20pt differential between my line and vegas, hits at 82% (11 occurrences)

A win this week in the denver over, the system is now 4-1 this year for all of those complaining there aren't enough plays, I think anyone would take that result

[a4u2fear]

Baby is crying so I can not run next week's numbers yet.

[Philyerglesion76]

Decided to trust the system- yay! For good measure I was feeling the Pats +2.5- yay again!

[a4u2fear]

Decided to trust the system- yay! For good measure I was feeling the Pats +2.5- yay again!

Nice. Thought for sure you were going to lose after that first half.

I'm looking forward to running the #s since the first Den/KC matchup was a no-play in Denver at a total of 54. Now back in KC just two weeks later.

[Philyerglesion76]

You ain't kidding! I finally turned it on and it was 17-0! But, Belichick has a way of "encouraging" the troops.

The total will be interesting on that game. But, both teams have something to prove- it could be a shootout (which KC would lose-imho).

[a4u2fear]

Denver KC o48.5 is a system play this week. Good luck!

[Bruno Bets]

Baby is crying so I can not run next week's numbers yet.

Yep....they can really cut into your 'capping time....bless their little hearts....LOL

Thankfully, mine are now grown and have left the nest now......hopefully forever? A4, since you like "theory" etc, I have posted a couple of "blogs" that may interest you? If you have a minute, have a read if for no other reason than passing the time. You may find something useful. .....Get 'em, buddy!

[Bruno Bets]

You ain't kidding! I finally turned it on and it was 17-0! But, Belichick has a way of "encouraging" the troops.

The total will be interesting on that game. But, both teams have something to prove- it could be a shootout (which KC would lose-imho).

I think that Belichek had some atoning to do from the previous week? I understand benching a starter over a fumble, however NOT after a bye week and having practiced with Ridley out of the back-field for the past 2 weeks. Do we really think that "benching a Pro" teaches him anything or makes him try and hold the ball any tighter? I am sure that he was embarrassed enough by the red-zone fumble? I felt the entire offense stall after that move.....and personally put that loss squarely at BB's feet.....just sayin'

[a4u2fear]

Yep....they can really cut into your 'capping time....bless their little hearts....LOL

Thankfully, mine are now grown and have left the nest now......hopefully forever? A4, since you like "theory" etc, I have posted a couple of "blogs" that may interest you? If you have a minute, have a read if for no other reason than passing the time. You may find something useful. .....Get 'em, buddy!

I'll take a look. Taking baby to doctor soon for her shots; should be a crying filled afternoon. Funny I was "across the street" the other day and saw you were a member there with about 30,000 posts haha. That's quite a bit. Didn't have time to parse your football thread but none the less I will get to it eventually.

[Bruno Bets]

I'll take a look. Taking baby to doctor soon for her shots; should be a crying filled afternoon. Funny I was "across the street" the other day and saw you were a member there with about 30,000 posts haha. That's quite a bit. Didn't have time to parse your football thread but none the less I will get to it eventually.

LOL.....that's the "idle" life of a handicapper, eh? Oh yeah, Canadian 'capper....LOL

[figue]

[a4u2fear]

0% chance of precip Sunday. I like Manning to repeat Rivers performance last week in KC

over baby

[Bruno Bets]

0% chance of precip Sunday. I like Manning to repeat Rivers performance last week in KC

over baby

Yep, the Chiefs have been FULLY exposed and first by the Bills......lucky to make the postseason with Smith and if it's not a home game they are one and done, IMO.....get 'em!

[a4u2fear]

Poor start, two INTs in scoring position