1. #36
    Jefferey13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Artieaa View Post
    teams with -200 or higer 2013 season

    SU: 75-45 (0.89, 62.5%) avg line: -230.2 / 199.2 on / against: -$2,905 / +$1,515 ROI: -10.5% / +12.6%
    RL: 51-69 (-0.61, 42.5%) avg line: -106.8 / -102.0 on / against: -$2,313 / +$1,789 ROI: -17.6% / +13.9%
    OU: 46-70-4 (-0.18, 39.7%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$3,055 / +$1,860 ROI: -23.4% / +13.9%
    Give me a much larger sample size and then compare it to people who bet between -110 and -150. Thanks for posting data.

  2. #37
    Artieaa
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    they have won 62.5% of the time but juice will eat you at the end, with 37,5% fading those teams yue would be with a nice 12.6% ROI for the season

    just my 2 cents

  3. #38
    Artieaa
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    2012 season

    SU: 155-48 (2.39, 76.4%) avg line: -224.6 / 190.7 on / against: +$4,716 / -$6,356 ROI: +10.3% / -31.3%
    RL: 118-85 (0.89, 58.1%) avg line: -104.6 / -105.3 on / against: +$3,027 / -$3,969 ROI: +13.8% / -17.9%
    OU: 96-99-8 (0.30, 49.2%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: -$1,200 / -$720 ROI: -5.4% / -3.2%


    so 2012 season was good to lay chalk and 2013 is not so far, so do we take 2012 or previous seasons or we ride the wave at the moment? give a minute will search for -110 and -150

  4. #39
    The Kraken
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  5. #40
    Jefferey13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Artieaa View Post
    2012 season

    SU: 155-48 (2.39, 76.4%) avg line: -224.6 / 190.7 on / against: +$4,716 / -$6,356 ROI: +10.3% / -31.3%
    RL: 118-85 (0.89, 58.1%) avg line: -104.6 / -105.3 on / against: +$3,027 / -$3,969 ROI: +13.8% / -17.9%
    OU: 96-99-8 (0.30, 49.2%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: -$1,200 / -$720 ROI: -5.4% / -3.2%


    so 2012 season was good to lay chalk and 2013 is not so far, so do we take 2012 or previous seasons or we ride the wave at the moment? give a minute will search for -110 and -150
    Thanks, and my argument isn't that it is smart to always play -200. My point is that there can be value at any line.

  6. #41
    Artieaa
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jefferey13 View Post
    Thanks, and my argument isn't that it is smart to always play -200. My point is that there can be value at any line.
    oh yes I hear you line by itself means nothing you gotta capp, model or whatever you do to find an edge IMO

  7. #42
    Artieaa
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    2013 line between -110 and -150
    SU: 550-480 (0.22, 53.4%) avg line: -127.8 / 117.8 on / against: -$5,873 / +$1,063 ROI: -4.5% / +1.0%
    RL: 389-638 (-1.25, 37.9%) avg line: 153.9 / -167.5 on / against: -$4,700 / -$510 ROI: -4.6% / -0.3%
    OU: 502-492-33 (0.39, 50.5%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$3,445 / -$6,065 ROI: -3.1% / -5.3%

  8. #43
    Artieaa
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    2012

    SU: 835-681 (0.41, 55.1%) avg line: -128.2 / 118.2 on / against: -$3,570 / -$3,270 ROI: -1.8% / -2.2%
    RL: 631-882 (-1.02, 41.7%) avg line: 149.0 / -162.9 on / against: +$5,051 / -$13,370 ROI: +3.3% / -5.4%
    OU: 711-730-72 (0.48, 49.3%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$7,915 / -$5,830 ROI: -4.8% / -3.5%

  9. #44
    ZetaPsi808
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    Quote Originally Posted by Artieaa View Post
    teams with -200 or higer 2013 season

    SU: 75-45 (0.89, 62.5%) avg line: -230.2 / 199.2 on / against: -$2,905 / +$1,515 ROI: -10.5% / +12.6%
    RL: 51-69 (-0.61, 42.5%) avg line: -106.8 / -102.0 on / against: -$2,313 / +$1,789 ROI: -17.6% / +13.9%
    OU: 46-70-4 (-0.18, 39.7%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$3,055 / +$1,860 ROI: -23.4% / +13.9%
    Artieaa,

    what site did u find this data from?

    cna you post a link, thanks ace

  10. #45
    Jefferey13
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    Thanks for the data. Just goes to show over the last two years, taking the -200 fav pays better than taking the -110 to -150.

    I still think the more data you find the closer the lines will come together to prove my point. There is money to be made regardless the line. Anyone who swears off a certain line doesn't know how to cap.

  11. #46
    easyliving
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    -180

  12. #47
    rake922
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    -2500

  13. #48
    Artieaa
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZetaPsi808 View Post
    Artieaa,

    what site did u find this data from?

    cna you post a link, thanks ace
    killersports it is a sdql database

  14. #49
    rkelly110
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    -222 (1.45) is max for me.

    Been playing the ML fave of the day -222 and lower since day one in MLB. 93-38 70%

    April 22-7 76%
    May 22-10 69%
    June 19-14 57%
    July 27-8 77%
    Aug 3-0 100%

    It might go to shit later, but riding the wave now.

  15. #50
    pologq
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    i think there is value in any line, especially when you factor in the starter for that day for that favorite. this year any team that plays houston is a decent sized favorite and i am always betting against them -1.5. i dont bet straight up though because i am not comfortable going more than -250.

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