1. #36
    Jefferey13
    Jefferey13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-10-13
    Posts: 624

    Quote Originally Posted by Artieaa View Post
    teams with -200 or higer 2013 season

    SU: 75-45 (0.89, 62.5%) avg line: -230.2 / 199.2 on / against: -$2,905 / +$1,515 ROI: -10.5% / +12.6%
    RL: 51-69 (-0.61, 42.5%) avg line: -106.8 / -102.0 on / against: -$2,313 / +$1,789 ROI: -17.6% / +13.9%
    OU: 46-70-4 (-0.18, 39.7%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$3,055 / +$1,860 ROI: -23.4% / +13.9%
    Give me a much larger sample size and then compare it to people who bet between -110 and -150. Thanks for posting data.

  2. #37
    Artieaa
    Artieaa's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-18-12
    Posts: 953
    Betpoints: 130

    they have won 62.5% of the time but juice will eat you at the end, with 37,5% fading those teams yue would be with a nice 12.6% ROI for the season

    just my 2 cents

  3. #38
    Artieaa
    Artieaa's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-18-12
    Posts: 953
    Betpoints: 130

    2012 season

    SU: 155-48 (2.39, 76.4%) avg line: -224.6 / 190.7 on / against: +$4,716 / -$6,356 ROI: +10.3% / -31.3%
    RL: 118-85 (0.89, 58.1%) avg line: -104.6 / -105.3 on / against: +$3,027 / -$3,969 ROI: +13.8% / -17.9%
    OU: 96-99-8 (0.30, 49.2%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: -$1,200 / -$720 ROI: -5.4% / -3.2%


    so 2012 season was good to lay chalk and 2013 is not so far, so do we take 2012 or previous seasons or we ride the wave at the moment? give a minute will search for -110 and -150

  4. #39
    The Kraken
    The Kraken's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-24-11
    Posts: 25,722
    Betpoints: 2869


  5. #40
    Jefferey13
    Jefferey13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-10-13
    Posts: 624

    Quote Originally Posted by Artieaa View Post
    2012 season

    SU: 155-48 (2.39, 76.4%) avg line: -224.6 / 190.7 on / against: +$4,716 / -$6,356 ROI: +10.3% / -31.3%
    RL: 118-85 (0.89, 58.1%) avg line: -104.6 / -105.3 on / against: +$3,027 / -$3,969 ROI: +13.8% / -17.9%
    OU: 96-99-8 (0.30, 49.2%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: -$1,200 / -$720 ROI: -5.4% / -3.2%


    so 2012 season was good to lay chalk and 2013 is not so far, so do we take 2012 or previous seasons or we ride the wave at the moment? give a minute will search for -110 and -150
    Thanks, and my argument isn't that it is smart to always play -200. My point is that there can be value at any line.

  6. #41
    Artieaa
    Artieaa's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-18-12
    Posts: 953
    Betpoints: 130

    Quote Originally Posted by Jefferey13 View Post
    Thanks, and my argument isn't that it is smart to always play -200. My point is that there can be value at any line.
    oh yes I hear you line by itself means nothing you gotta capp, model or whatever you do to find an edge IMO

  7. #42
    Artieaa
    Artieaa's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-18-12
    Posts: 953
    Betpoints: 130

    2013 line between -110 and -150
    SU: 550-480 (0.22, 53.4%) avg line: -127.8 / 117.8 on / against: -$5,873 / +$1,063 ROI: -4.5% / +1.0%
    RL: 389-638 (-1.25, 37.9%) avg line: 153.9 / -167.5 on / against: -$4,700 / -$510 ROI: -4.6% / -0.3%
    OU: 502-492-33 (0.39, 50.5%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$3,445 / -$6,065 ROI: -3.1% / -5.3%

  8. #43
    Artieaa
    Artieaa's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-18-12
    Posts: 953
    Betpoints: 130

    2012

    SU: 835-681 (0.41, 55.1%) avg line: -128.2 / 118.2 on / against: -$3,570 / -$3,270 ROI: -1.8% / -2.2%
    RL: 631-882 (-1.02, 41.7%) avg line: 149.0 / -162.9 on / against: +$5,051 / -$13,370 ROI: +3.3% / -5.4%
    OU: 711-730-72 (0.48, 49.3%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$7,915 / -$5,830 ROI: -4.8% / -3.5%

  9. #44
    ZetaPsi808
    July 2011 Poster of the Month
    ZetaPsi808's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-08
    Posts: 12,135
    Betpoints: 1982

    Quote Originally Posted by Artieaa View Post
    teams with -200 or higer 2013 season

    SU: 75-45 (0.89, 62.5%) avg line: -230.2 / 199.2 on / against: -$2,905 / +$1,515 ROI: -10.5% / +12.6%
    RL: 51-69 (-0.61, 42.5%) avg line: -106.8 / -102.0 on / against: -$2,313 / +$1,789 ROI: -17.6% / +13.9%
    OU: 46-70-4 (-0.18, 39.7%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$3,055 / +$1,860 ROI: -23.4% / +13.9%
    Artieaa,

    what site did u find this data from?

    cna you post a link, thanks ace

  10. #45
    Jefferey13
    Jefferey13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-10-13
    Posts: 624

    Thanks for the data. Just goes to show over the last two years, taking the -200 fav pays better than taking the -110 to -150.

    I still think the more data you find the closer the lines will come together to prove my point. There is money to be made regardless the line. Anyone who swears off a certain line doesn't know how to cap.

  11. #46
    easyliving
    easyliving's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-25-12
    Posts: 8,878
    Betpoints: 10

    -180

  12. #47
    rake922
    rake922's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-23-07
    Posts: 11,085
    Betpoints: 1704

    -2500

  13. #48
    Artieaa
    Artieaa's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-18-12
    Posts: 953
    Betpoints: 130

    Quote Originally Posted by ZetaPsi808 View Post
    Artieaa,

    what site did u find this data from?

    cna you post a link, thanks ace
    killersports it is a sdql database

  14. #49
    rkelly110
    rkelly110's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-05-09
    Posts: 29,487
    Betpoints: 2581

    -222 (1.45) is max for me.

    Been playing the ML fave of the day -222 and lower since day one in MLB. 93-38 70%

    April 22-7 76%
    May 22-10 69%
    June 19-14 57%
    July 27-8 77%
    Aug 3-0 100%

    It might go to shit later, but riding the wave now.

  15. #50
    pologq
    I'm Over Here Now
    pologq's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-07-12
    Posts: 5,100
    Betpoints: 986

    i think there is value in any line, especially when you factor in the starter for that day for that favorite. this year any team that plays houston is a decent sized favorite and i am always betting against them -1.5. i dont bet straight up though because i am not comfortable going more than -250.

First 12
Top