I can hear some of you know "but Nashy, aren't you riding in front of the Cardinal bus this season, didn't you say the Cards are the team to beat"?
Yes, I am, and still am, however, Lannan and his Phils match up very well in this spot.
Westbrook is the very type of hitter Phils hit well. Westbrook has a very good ERA this season (2.88) but let's not lose sight of the fact his lifetime ERA is 4.23. Westbrook's WH/IP ratio however is a poor 1.40, which is his lifetime ratio (1.39) and has one of the worse strikeout to IP ratio's in the game.
Relies on defense to get all his outs, is a contact out pitcher, and Phils have a history of making contact off of Jake.
Overall the Phils hit .304 lifetime off of Westbrook, 42 for 138, the whole Philly infield smacks Jake around hard, Jimmy Rollins is 8 for 18 .444. 4 for 11 .364, and Michael Young, is 11 for 29 .379 lifetime, and Chase Utley is 4 for 11 as well.
Michael Young was put on this planet to bat against Jake Westbrook type ptichers, loves pitchers like him.
Young has over 2,300 career base hits pretty off of control pitchers, Young has a lifetime .301 batting average across 14 years. Michael Young wakes up in the morning drooling over the fact that he is going to get 4 turns at bat against a control pitcher. It would not shock me if Young goes 3 for 4 tonight. I don't know why Young doesn't get any love, one of the most underrated hitter in the game today.
OK, enough of the Young love fest, the point being, Phils have demonstrated in the past they ding Westbrook.
Let's talk Philly starter tonight John Lannan, making his tenth start of the season tonight, ERA after nine starts. 3.76 good, not great, WH/IP ratio 1.27, tad better than league average, good, not great.
Lannan is what he is, a good middle of the rotation guy.
However, Cards only hit .232 off of Lannan, and the *only* hitter that hurts Lannan is Holliday, who is 6 for 17, take away that bat, (he's hurt, not playing) Cards lineup struggles. Team batting average goes to around .196 now.
Let's talk Lannan's last two starts, they were stellar, OK, they were against the underachieving Nats, and the weak ass Chi-Sox, but you can't argue with this.
Back to back 4 hit, 8 inning gems.
REGULAR SEASON GAMES THROUGH JULY 23, 2013 YEAR TO DATE DATE OPPONENT RESULT IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB Pit BF GSc Dec. Rel. ERA Jul 13 vs CHW W 2-1 8.0 4 1 1 0 1 3 17 10 90 31 72 - - 3.76 Jul 8 vs WSH W 3-2 8.0 4 0 0 0 2 4 16 7 109 29 76 W(2-3) - 4.23
Love the way Lannan and the Phils set up and match up against St. Louis and Westbrook tonight.
My take is the -165 on Westbrook and St. Louis is way out of line, way over inflated. Oh no, Nashy is going to throw around the 'v' word, but there is a ton, a shit load of ton of value with Philly tonight.
I like the barking doggy tonight, to bark and bite.
PHILS at a very, very generous +155 for me
Jimmy Rollins SS
Michael Young 3B
Chase Utley 2B
Delmon Young RF
Darin Ruf 1B
Laynce Nix LF
John Mayberry CF
Carlos Ruiz C
(John Lannan)
Matt Carpenter 2B
Shane Robinson CF
Carlos Beltran RF
Allen Craig LF
Yadier Molina C
David Freese 3B
Matt Adams 1B
Pete Kozma SS
(Jake Westbrook)