1. #1
    ChalkyDog
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    Reds at even money 7/22

    Should have got on this earlier. It being an obvious play doesn't worry me too much.

    It's the classic "fade the guy coming off of a no-hitter".

    But there are other things about this game that make it a play regardless of Timmah's no-no.

    Arroyo hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs since late may.
    Arroyo is 2-1 in his last 3.
    Arroyo is 8-0 after the reds lost the previous time out
    Reds are 6-1 vs. NL West in last 7 games with Arroyo on the mound.
    Reds are 4-1 vs Giants over last 5 games in San Fran .

    Timmah is 0-2 with an ERA nearing 7 vs the reds.
    Giants 0-6 with Timmah on the mound vs a team above .500 over those 6 games.
    Giants are 2-10 in their last 12 vs. NL Central opponents.

    One of the main reasons I am feeling comfortable besides the fact that Arroyo should be better than Lincecum, is the fact that the Reds bullpen is one of the better iunits n the league. In fact, their bullpen is posting a sub 1.00 ERA over their last 16 games, which consists of ~48 innings pitched. Meaning, a loss due to some fukktard out of the pen is less likely.

    Point being, we got a classic fade spot at + or EV money, when the team being backed is superior than the team favored.

    I am 5 out of my last 6 posted plays, Hoping to go 6 for 7.

    Fade or Tail, Doesn't matter to me.

    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: PickoMoff

  2. #2
    JMobile
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    I was feeling the same way today

  3. #3
    Smoke
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    I was feeling the same way today

  4. #4
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    I was feeling the same way today
    me too

  5. #5
    joco
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    today same way i was feeling

  6. #6
    Big Bear
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    Reds seem like a really good play...

    however Lincecum may have found something...maybe some good chronic...

    The Giants looked pretty solid over the weekend vs D-Backs

    Posey been hitting good

  7. #7
    PickoMoff
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChalkyDog View Post
    It's the classic "fade the guy coming off of a no-hitter".
    This was my main reason for my bet, plus Timmy sucks this year! All those other stats are even more of a blessing!

    BOL!

  8. #8
    PickoMoff
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Reds seem like a really good play...

    however Lincecum may have found something...maybe some good chronic...

    The Giants looked pretty solid over the weekend vs D-Backs

    Posey been hitting good
    "Good Chronic"

  9. #9
    Big Bear
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    A little reverse line movement going on for some reason

    reds went from +109 to +113 despite majority of money coming in on Reds....

    books probably just trying to mind fukk us

  10. #10
    jjgold
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    Lincy rarely pitches two good games in a row

    Although maybe he found his zone and then Cincy in trouble

  11. #11
    easyliving
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    line moving against you, Lincecum had 8 days rest no bet for me here.

  12. #12
    El Nino
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    Initial lean on the Reds, Would rather fade Lincecum on the road though. His home #'s have been good.

  13. #13
    jjgold
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    I am scared of game
    8 days rest is a lot
    When he has good stuff game over

  14. #14
    BIGDAY
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    I think Arroyo is something like 1-6 his last 7 starts of a opening road series.
    Probably more along that the bats aren't banging but I'm staying away.

    GL pal

  15. #15
    HardCore
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    why does sbr let these idiots post these dumb ass post like wtf^^^^^^^

  16. #16
    raydog
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    Quote Originally Posted by HardCore View Post
    why does sbr let these idiots post these dumb ass post like wtf^^^^^^^
    whats dumb about it?

  17. #17
    Killer_Demo
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    No play for me....Timmy vs Arroyo will be interesting

  18. #18
    HardCore
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    Quote Originally Posted by raydog View Post
    whats dumb about it?
    no not you the idiot that posts the "i work for a major bookmaker and i have the winner of the game and its fix BS email me" lol sbr took the post down. good shit sbr

  19. #19
    Down_Goes Bookie
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    Arroyo is 0-4 at AT&T park. This year his away ERA is nearly double his home ERA. Night ERA nearly double his day ERA. Not to mention Arroyo has a habit of following up a strong game (like his 3 H in 7 IP last outing @ Atlanta) with a stinker.

    Lincecum may very well have figured something out. I don't see a lot to like here re Arroyo and leaning SF.

  20. #20
    ses_d
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    Quote Originally Posted by Down_Goes Bookie View Post
    Arroyo is 0-4 at AT&T park. This year his away ERA is nearly double his home ERA. Night ERA nearly double his day ERA. Not to mention Arroyo has a habit of following up a strong game (like his 3 H in 7 IP last outing @ Atlanta) with a stinker.

    Lincecum may very well have figured something out. I don't see a lot to like here re Arroyo and leaning SF.
    Lol I read that stat on the previews too but Arroyo beat SF 8-1 last season at AT&T.

    Weird huh....

  21. #21
    daneault23
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    Maybe over? Timmay has very rarely pitched 2 consecutive good games this season and Arroyo has struggled at AT&T Park.

  22. #22
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Down_Goes Bookie View Post
    Arroyo is 0-4 at AT&T park. This year his away ERA is nearly double his home ERA. Night ERA nearly double his day ERA. Not to mention Arroyo has a habit of following up a strong game (like his 3 H in 7 IP last outing @ Atlanta) with a stinker.

    Lincecum may very well have figured something out. I don't see a lot to like here re Arroyo and leaning SF.
    i have confidence in Lincecum to pitch something like 4 runs or less in 6-7 innings pitched....

    but as always with the Giants i don't have confidence in them to score 4 runs....

  23. #23
    ses_d
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    By the way...I know this Giants team well. Bet on Bailey when he had his no no and Lincecum when he had his.

    On Arroyo tonight.

  24. #24
    ses_d
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    You guys think just because Lincecum had one good game out of 15 he's back on track?

    As a Giants fan I sure hope so, but my mind along with reviewing stats is telling me otherwise.

    Go look at Lincecums record on Espn and tell me you want to back him tonight.

    Btw, I know a extra stat that no one on this forum has seem to pick up...I'll let ya'll know after the Reds win tonight.

  25. #25
    ses_d
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    Arroyo hasn't really struggled at ATT...stop reading the previews and dig deeper.

  26. #26
    joco
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    arroyo has faced giants 4 times since beginning of 2012 season...the reds are 3-1 in those games...arroyo gave up 4 total ER in those 4 games combined...2 of those were at AT&T park...reds won one of those 2 away games (which was in the postseason) 9-0...the other they lost 4-3...doesnt sound like arroyo is that terrible against the giants home or away...

  27. #27
    Down_Goes Bookie
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    Quote Originally Posted by ses_d View Post
    Lol I read that stat on the previews too but Arroyo beat SF 8-1 last season at AT&T.

    Weird huh....
    Ha, I was looking at career splits, but that data covered only regular season games. I haven't gotten around to reading any previews yet.

    Turns out Arroyo did win a postseason game last yeat at AT&T, 9-0 -- 1 H in 7 IP. Thanks for the catch ...

  28. #28
    easyliving
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    just pulled the trigger on Lincecum and the Giants. too many stats against reds and arroyo. Reds have been very average on the road all season.

  29. #29
    ChalkyDog
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    Not to be a dick, but the amount of posts in this thread + the majority agreeing with me, now worries me.

    GL to Reds backers. Giant backers can kick rocks.

  30. #30
    ses_d
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChalkyDog View Post
    Not to be a dick, but the amount of posts in this thread + the majority agreeing with me, now worries me.

    GL to Reds backers. Giant backers can kick rocks.
    What do you mean. The majority seems to be on SF. Because Reds aren't good on the road, Arroyo hasn't had good numbers, etc.

  31. #31
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    A little reverse line movement going on for some reason

    reds went from +109 to +113 despite majority of money coming in on Reds....

    books probably just trying to mind fukk us
    they mind fukked me again!


    how did i pass on the Reds here?? 11-0

  32. #32
    Smoke
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    Bear dont follow the RLM in baseball it will kill you

  33. #33
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    Bear dont follow the RLM in baseball it will kill you
    i know... it dont mean shit in baseball. I didnt bet Giants or anything... i just didnt bet and it pisses me off bc Reds won 11-0

  34. #34
    Bluedragon
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    I was looking at this play too.

  35. #35
    rcene
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    This year's Giants do not resemble a defending champion. Amazing how the starting pitching has collapsed

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