Big Boy Dan ..

**bigboydan** · 11-20-05, 02:16 AM

Originally posted by natrass

The odds for this game being under 3 goals were 1.75. Does that seem good value, even though it breaks all the rules you posted as it ignores 'knowing the teams'?

i personaly would due the fact it breaks the rule

**natrass** · 11-20-05, 02:24 AM

OK, cheers, I tell him. He would say that it is surely good value though but, well, it wasn't yesterday.

**Max Levine** · 11-20-05, 02:52 AM

You talking about Southampton-Leeds U? Saw that score earlier and looked up stats to see if that would have been expected. Nope, lol

Max

**natrass** · 11-20-05, 04:01 AM

No, Max, not lol !!! He was furious.

But, yeah, Leeds-Southampton ... what a bummer.

**adriano** · 11-20-05, 10:57 AM

There is absolutely no value in playing lower league over/under goals in soccer whatever the odds. There is value in these oind of bets only when a top team plays like Barcelona or Werder in over for example, but you HAVE to know the teams, to watch some games...in under it is more complicated.
I don't recommend to mess with it if you dont watch soccer.

**natrass** · 11-20-05, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by adriano

There is absolutely no value in playing lower league over/under goals in soccer whatever the odds. There is value in these oind of bets only when a top team plays like Barcelona or Werder in over for example, but you HAVE to know the teams, to watch some games...in under it is more complicated.
I don't recommend to mess with it if you dont watch soccer.

I do watch soccer!!! The question was really just because Dan made some good points in a recap on sports betting and my friend got caught out. I cant speak for him, but I am sure he would argue from purely the stats (and given no other significant team news) that it was a value bet.

I also believe my friend had won a lot in the last few seasons playing by stats ... but I think he was very angry about this one in particluar. Not just that he lost but that there were seven goals ... which has made him wonder.

You may be correct though Adriano (though I believe he had Barcelona on the overs away at Panaithaikos in the CL ... and that ended 0-0 ... so even the top teams arent so predictable).

**adriano** · 11-20-05, 11:39 AM

Of course they are not so predictable

I stayed away from that game at Panathinaikos because Barcelona didn't have much to play for, already qualified, even top teams need a rest sometimes. There are a lot of factors you see, and this is at top level, what about the lower leagues, especially in England, famous for that kind of results (4-3). Not much to be angry i think... We must congratulate him if he won a lot just by stats...

**natrass** · 11-20-05, 11:52 AM

Thats true ... but you know last season in the same league there were two teams (Stoke and Burnley) who for about four or five months (December to March/April) had maybe only sven overs in total out of maybe 30 matches (every game was 1-0, 0-1, etc) and you could get very good odds because they were lower league and the bookies take the odds off spreadsheets maybe.

That Panaithainkos one was poor ... Barcelona in a 0-0 (though, to be fair, they also drew away in La Liga 0-0 to, was it Ajjaccio??). They are back to their best now though 3-0 in Madrid was a bit of a shock.

Thanks for your thoughts, good stuff.

**adriano** · 11-20-05, 12:06 PM

Just checked Barca drew away at Alaves 0-0 on opening day, i took the over last night for the Madrid game, expected a win but not by this score, maybe 2-1...

I think i will start posting soccer picks soon, cause i watch so much soccer it wil be a waste if i don't

, but they will be mostly parlays
That's good stuff about Stoke and Burnley

...i don't play lower leagues though, one of my top rules in soccer.

**natrass** · 11-20-05, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by adriano

Just checked Barca drew away at Alaves 0-0 on opening day, i took the over last night for the Madrid game, expected a win but not by this score, maybe 2-1...

I think i will start posting soccer picks soon, cause i watch so much soccer it wil be a waste if i don't

, but they will be mostly parlays
That's good stuff about Stoke and Burnley

...i don't play lower leagues though, one of my top rules in soccer.

Note the Stoke/burnley thing has long finished they both changed their managers in the summer (no suprise ... would you want to pay to watch those games? lol)

What leagues do you play? I know I should play the french league (le championat) ... they sure know how not to score goals there (except Lyon). But mainly I do EPL, the Championship and Scottish Division Three.

**adriano** · 11-20-05, 12:25 PM

Wow Scottish Division 3

For overs Bundesliga is number 1, sometimes i pick top teams in Italy, England and Spain top leagues to win, in Spain not much goals besides Madrid and Barca too, football365.com has good stats.
French league i don't like, teams are pretty much of even quality, Lyon are classy, but...i have backed them twice to win at the bottm team in previous years and they didn't ...so no thank you!

**natrass** · 11-20-05, 12:31 PM

Yeah ... I think its the leagues you know so Scottish Div 3 is good for me ... nice and predictable. Thats the best thing ... EPL seems to change every month (bar the top 3) which is not good.