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How to cap?? Please helpppppp!
I was wondering if anyone could help me with how to successfully cap games? this can be in any sport.
just would love to have some people tell me. whether they have some sort of statistical equation, a simulator. or anything else.
ALL HELP IS GREATLY APPRECIATED!
You will need a thorough understanding of Fermat 's last therom before you even attempt serious handicapping. Once you figure that out everything else will fall into place.
1. 99.9% of knowable information of an independent event is known and baked into the price.
2. Thousands of people handicap every game and shape the line for you.
3. Get the best price you can.
GL
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Statnerds, I get what you are saying about capping but how are determining what game you play? I mean, you have to look at a game and think that a team is going to cover that line you got the best price on before you play it. In order to do that, aren't you basically coming up with your own idea of what the margin of victory is going to be ... in other words ... setting your own line that happens to differ from the professional cappers?
Are you just watching the way the early line movements go and assume that's the sharp money then finding the best price for that side and going with it?
Put your energy in to something else. It appears that you can still be saved.Originally Posted by wizcodlifa
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whats fermats theory??
Look for MLB threads by STEVENASH. Probably the best guy on here with detailed info daily on his picks.
Don't bet totals, don't lay juice.
Stick to MLB, it's the only sport you can beat consistently.
Anything you lay -110 on in NFL, NBA, NCAA is a waste of time and effort unless you have millions to risk and are happy winning small amounts from it each season. True story.
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Soooo ... the only guys in here successfully capping NFL, CFB, and CBB are guys betting millions to win small amounts??? I'm not buying it. Listen, I don't thing the original poster is looking to make millions. I know I'm not. I don't watch baseball ... just don't care for it. So betting baseball is not an option for me. I enjoy betting games I like and I'm looking for some assistance in maximizing my profits to make wagering even that much more enjoyable. I'm not quitting my day job and I'm not looking to make 6 figures off my gambling pastime. I am, however, willing to put in some work to get better.
I've asked the same question (more or less) in two forums on this site now and the answers I'm seeing are "don't waste your time". I don't consider it a waste of time if I'm enjoying myself. So if I can enjoy myself and increase my winning percentage from 53% to 55% while I'm betting my $55 flats, I'm a happy guy. If my winning percentage goes higher than that ... fantastic! Maybe I move up to $110's and make a little more. Either way, I'm not putting my kids through college so it's not really a waste of my time.
I find it hard to believe that there are so many people reading these forums and noone is actually betting anything but MLB because anything else is a waste of time. And I'm even more positive that we aren't all millionaires. So if anyone is willing to offer some pointers on what stats and situational matchups are things to key on and any other strategies you may prefer to devulge, that would be awesome. Thanks guys. I'm fairly certain that all the noobs like myself appreciate the help.
Familiarize yourself with the statistics that are relevant to each sport, what numbers predict how much a team will score. Don't just look at the final score of the game figure out how a team scores in that given sport (for example in basketball don't just look at a final score but rather look at what can happen on any one possession (FG%, 3PM%, TOV%, ORB%) the final score could have garbage points, bad calls, etc. that don't give an accurate picture. Learn to handicap these relevant stats. In MLB you may want to look at how many base runners per game (as that is how runs are produced).
Once you handicap the relevant statistics and make a line, you will need to adjust that line based on situational factors (home field, travel, streaks, division games, look ahead, etc.)
Familiarize yourself with the concept of expected value and make bets that have a positive expected value. Knowledge of statistics and mathematical modeling will help you for sure but are no guarantee. You need to balance the objective with the subjective and finding that balance is the key to success.
Early on in a season I trust more situational factors, as the season progresses I gain more confidence in the statistics.
Patience, Patience, Patience is critical. Do not try to get rich quick, but rather think of it as an investment that will compound over time.
Be persistent, you will lose and probably go broke many times before you begin to find a ray of hope. You have to love this and work hard at it, no other way around it.
One last thing don't get fooled by a chase system that win's 99% of the time what they never tell you is the all important risk to reward ratio.
Good luck, I have been at this for over seven years and am only starting to find my way after many mistakes.
Last edited by million2one; 05-07-13 at 11:11 AM.
Read Conquering Risk by Elihu D. Feustel, it should help a lot in making the jump from a novice into a better player.
Thank you so much Million2one. Great reply and much appreciated. Also, Gradius, thank you for that suggestion. I literally just downloaded this book from google books. I saw it mentioned a couple times on this forum during my research. I plan on digging in with a couple Sierra Nevada Pale Ales tonight. May even mix in a La Perla just for improved focus.
Thanks guys.
The answer to the thread title: you learn by doing. Most people never put the discipline in, rely on gut instinct, and have no idea of relevant sample sizes so make conclusions on useless evidence - also, much of what passes for sports "common knowledge" is drivel. As somebody said, you need 10,000 hours of practice to be good at anything.
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Good post.
My reply was more directed towards someone thinking they will just make money betting sports.
Most sports-betting should be done for enjoyment and leisure like yourself if you are laying the 55 to win 50's.
For someone serious and trying to profit, the best bet and only bet is MLB where you don't lay -110 on everything, that's all I was suggesting.
I have been sports gambling since 2009, my personal rules on sports gambling:
1. Money management. Bet less than 5% of your total current bankroll per bet. Be discipline.
2. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity.
Never be an emotional compulsive gambler by betting because it's your favorite team or for the action or bet against a team because you hate a certain player.
3. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession. Be unbiased.
4. Do your research by watching game footage, trends and statistics should be used on division rivals only.
Don't judge a team based on what they did in their previous game.
5. Never bet on heavily juiced/vig lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
6. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
7. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the greater the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww
8. Teasers should never pass through the zero.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ
9. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games. Sportsbooks know this and favorites the home team.
"Whoever is first in the field and awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the fight;
whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle will arrive exhausted." -Sun Tzu, the Art of War
10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid because of the lack of game footage on mostly unknown players.
12. If you are extremely compulsive, arrogant, drunk and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".
13. Learn from your mistakes. Most gamblers don't learn from their mistakes. That's why I made these gambling rules.
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starting bank $12,000
[1.3%]-$156- risk per wager/investment based off reduced http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion for optimized
56.5% win rate
20% built in ceiling adjusted 1.3%...[ex.12000-2400-20%,new 1.3%=$124.8]
8% roi with a avg wager line of -125
rough bottom line [468000 laid,8% roi of total laid is
your salary[$37,440]
edit.. figures above are based off 3000 wager per yr
the 56.5 wr is using my spreadsheet of 517 pics although it differs from the 8% roi
this does not have any info how to cap games
Last edited by accuscoresucks; 05-07-13 at 09:18 PM.
everyone has access to the same information and every stat you can imagine.
unless you are doing something novel or unique with that data, you are fukked.
and yes, if you are going to start cappin you had sure as shit make your own number before viewing any lines. i cap the NFL. i beat the NFL. can't do shit in any other sport so i rely on line shopping and market timing...
here is the easiest way to win
consistently beat the closing line
Anyway you can explain what this is??
Just fade me.. I was on the wild last night.
unreal
a real time investment model..
sports betting/investing can be beat despite contrary if i make 3% off every 100 you handed me why would i have an opinion.?
there are hundreds of ways to wager[ex;over/unders,favorites,underdogs,bonus scalping,underdogs with biased only,very heavy favs,ect,ect
success however does not come without hard work.
1. Visit SBR Players Talk
2. Look for the thread with 100's of views that says either "lock", "can't lose", "bet all my bankroll" etc and check to see what the play is.
3. Bet the opposite at your book.
4. Repeat the above procedure daily.
Anyone else read the title as "how to crap"?
A dentist should know the answer.
I read it as "Have to crap".
op you don't sound too bright. just fade yourself and you'll do fine.
no joke...
If you don't already know how, learn to program, build a database, and have fun. Even if you're not successful at gambling, you will have taught yourself a very useful skill.
Also, keep records of your wagers and always evaluate your performance based on how they do against the closing line- I'd rather be 5-5 and beat the closer 9 out of 10 times, than be 8-2 but losing to the closing line 9 times.
For more, do a search for posts by Ganchrow- he had a great way of explaining economics concepts in a Sports Betting For Dummies kind of way.
how is ganchrow doing in sports betting now? he must be up millions...
Just bet the home dogs in every sport. And follow the money. You'll win most of the time.
stay away from playing on the same side as goat milk and lakerboy
Fade squares and Follow sharps seems to work.
Most here are guessers not cappers
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Wiz...
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