[Gus Fring]

Are odds out?

[Sport_Fish]

No idea what odds are gonna be but almost certain I'll be fading Darcis.

Did with Rosol last year worked very well. Such a good fade spot, esp when the upset person is Nadal. Darcis should get rolled, and can go home with a successful season after this victory.

[benrama]

Will be one of my biggest plays of the year

[Gus Fring]

I agree.

[Tmuston Beltics]

So many going to play Darcis because he just beat Nadal. That's good.

[Hardcoar]

Entirely dependant on odds, which I have yet to investigate.

[EaglesPhan36]

Line will be interesting to see. This isn't quite the easy call like last year when Kohlschreiber got Rosol the match after. Kubot is competent on grass, but not having a strong season. Also not like the Rosol set-up where Rosol had to go five sets and stay in it mentally when Nadal came back to knot it at two sets and everyone expected him to fold. Rosol was very obviously going to be gassed the next match + you combine that with the quality of opponent he was facing.

Darcis was mostly in control except for the shaky 2nd set tie break. I don't think he's going to be totally spent coming into this next round. Of course the letdown factor is big, but I don't know that he gets rolled here.

[tevari]

It'll probably be something like -185/+160 Darcis/Kubot. Won't touch it.

[EaglesPhan36]

My own guess is it won't be that high. Books will want to stimulate betting on this match because they know they will get a lot of play off it. Realistically, given their histories on grass and at Wimbledon - it should be close to a pick 'em .. although it won't be. I'd give the Darcis win a 30-40 cent knock in his favor, so my guesstimate is -150 to -160.

[Demonata]

I will definitely be taking Darcis.

[matt1216]

Not sure here guys. Darcis played a good match on grass vs wawrinka the match befor nadal. He had break pt opportunities vs wawa..... Wawa isnt great but darcis is playin decent right now. Not sure i would fade him vs Kubot at all.

[shari91]

If the odds are bettable ie less than -150 I'll be on Darcis. He's made me a lot of money in the past - not today obviously though - and he's enough of a journeyman that I'm not worried about the letdown factor at all. He didn't have to exert a lot of energy today and he didn't fight the skitz to win that match. Kubot's record isn't great on grass and there was still questions about whether Andreev was injury free or not. I won't bet this match just for the sake of betting it because Darcis beat Nadal. But if the odds are ok I'll play it like I would normally and that would be for Darcis to beat Kubot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Shari Sighting.

[JM92]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but from what I remember from watching my tons of tennis in 2011, Darcis is a guy more suited for quick conditions like grass/hard court/indoor, with a good serve and a nice right hand that can finish up a lot of points quickly. Or am I seeing it wrong? I know Kubot is a nice player or at least he was but unless the odds look clearly inflated because of this match I won't be playing Kubot that fast...

[shari91]

Shari Sighting.

[tevari]

my sbr purchased starbucks gift card ran out today. i think this is a bad omen.

[tevari]

5D has Darcis @ -140 with Kubot @ +120.

[aman86]

darcis takes this match... nadal played well enough yesterday and darcis shut him down

[ApricotSinner32]

Pawns on darcis

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm gonna play Smart Guy ... and pass.

I can't wait for this thread to blow up tomorrow though. Will either be a dozen dudes touting their million dollar hit on Darcis as "ea$y money" or a dozen dudes wanting Darcis' address in Belgium.

[Hardcoar]

People confuse a winning bet with "easy money" a bit much.

That said, clearly there is value with Darcis @ 1.75.

Furthermore, I don't socialize with the Flemish.

[face]

i'm taking darcis

[Otters27]

Darcis looked sharp against Nadal. He could make a run

[RichardGeorge]

People confuse a winning bet with "easy money" a bit much.

That said, clearly there is value with Darcis @ 1.75.

Furthermore, I don't socialize with the Flemish.

You really don't know the meaning of value then...which is ironic cause there was a post a little while ago that you said people use the word value wrong.

If anything, the value is on kubot because if darcis had beaten someone other then nadal, the line would have been a pick em more then likely.

[EaglesPhan36]

There is only value if you win. If you lose, there is valium.

[ohumad]

There is only value if you win. If you lose, there is valium.

Inb4 Hardcoar rapes you.

[ohumad]

You really don't know the meaning of value then...which is ironic cause there was a post a little while ago that you said people use the word value wrong.

If anything, the value is on kubot because if darcis had beaten someone other then nadal, the line would have been a pick em more then likely.

On the other hand the fact that he beat Nadal shows the kind of form he has. On the other other hand some might view this as a negative with the "winner's high" angle.

[Sport_Fish]

Kubot +120 Love this.

[GoBlue77]

I'll take Darcis. He's not a one trick pony imo

[RichardGeorge]

On the other hand the fact that he beat Nadal shows the kind of form he has. On the other other hand some might view this as a negative with the "winner's high" angle.

It's like when a middle of the pack cbb team beats a top 5 team.. They are in great form for that one game and step there game up to beat that top team/player.. What happens next game? They usually are a great fade and lay an egg..

It's hard to back up an emotional win and step up the next game for a lesser opponent.

For example.. Nishikori gets one of his biggest wins of his life by beating federer in Monaco. What happens next match? He loses in straights to andujar

[benrama]

It's pretty simple for me, if you bet against the player that just wins a "career type" match against one of Fed/Nadal/Joker/Murray you would be winning at 70%+ over the last 5 years or so (I've done the numbers before and posted on SBR, I'm not doing them again) - and often with you getting plus money odds.

Darcis may get up here, but for me that is irrelevant, you have to take the +EV bet every time when there is a fundamental reason for it (in this case a psychological angle), that's how you make money longer term.

[pazim]

It's pretty simple for me, if you bet against the player that just wins a "career type" match against one of Fed/Nadal/Joker/Murray you would be winning at 70%+ over the last 5 years or so (I've done the numbers before and posted on SBR, I'm not doing them again) - and often with you getting plus money odds.

Darcis may get up here, but for me that is irrelevant, you have to take the +EV bet every time when there is a fundamental reason for it (in this case a psychological angle), that's how you make money longer term.

I would wait till he plays paire. The most I have seen players win is 2 games in a row after a win like this. If he wins against kubot, it would be good to bet against him on the handicap.

[benrama]

pazim, the handicap is so low here it doesn't really matter. But if he wins against Kubot I'm doubling my bet against him on Paire.

[ohumad]

It's pretty simple for me, if you bet against the player that just wins a "career type" match against one of Fed/Nadal/Joker/Murray you would be winning at 70%+ over the last 5 years or so (I've done the numbers before and posted on SBR, I'm not doing them again) - and often with you getting plus money odds.

Darcis may get up here, but for me that is irrelevant, you have to take the +EV bet every time when there is a fundamental reason for it (in this case a psychological angle), that's how you make money longer term.

Say Darcis beat some scrub and the line was set @ pick em. Who do you take?

[benrama]

Say Darcis beat some scrub and the line was set @ pick em. Who do you take?

I don't get the question