[cakasmaloy]

I developed this "system" for picking college football winners and so far its extremely accurate...

Basically, the theory works like so:

-Look at only matchups where both teams are in small, non-bcs conferences
-Neither team can be ranked
-The game cannot be televised on national TV
*If all these criteria are met, THEN:
-Use SBRODDS.com to watch the PINNACLE line movement from the OPEN (on Sunday) until WED
**IF the line shifts a FULL point in either direction from Sunday(open)-->Wednesday, then take the team in which the line moves with (i.e. TeamX opens as -4 favorites against TeamY... on Tuesday TeamX moves to -5, TAKE teamX) This works for favorites or underdogs...

Over the last 2 weeks, this is how I have done: 9-3-1

Week 5:
E.Mich/Temple --> TEMPLE -6 W
C.Mich/Buffalo --> Buffalo +8.5 W
UL-Monroe/FlaInt --> UL-M -5 W
Rice/Tulsa --> TULSA -15 W
Toledo/Ballst --> BALLST +7(bought 1pt) PUSH
ColSt/Idaho --> IDAHO +3 W

Week 4:
SanDiegoSt/AirForce --> SDST +17 W
UNLV/Wyoming --> Wyo +4.5 W
Akron/C.Mich --> AKR +14.5 L
N.Ill/Idaho ---> N.Ill -17 L
FlaAtl/UL-Monroe --> UL-Mon+3.5 W
Troy/ArkSt --> ArkSt-3 L
Toledo/FlaInt --> Tol -2 W

I quickly reviewed the last couple weeks and may be missing a game here or there, but just figured i'd share these findings... i have been able to have some profitable weekends using this theory over the last 2 seasons. I will post the plays for this week if people have interest.

[twincities77]

Thank you for the results. Please keep it up.

[wal66]

Coincidence or not I'm interested.

[cakasmaloy]

i know it may seem too simple or hard to believe but i have been making good money from these plays for the past 2 seasons... it may not be entertaining since you can never watch any of the games, but gamecast does just fine when your making $$$$

[nobs]

Not trying to be an asshole, but there are thousands of people on these boards who dont post plays then claim they made huge $$$$$$.

None of these plays were posted before the games, in fact I only find one play posted by caksmaloy

" Dude, Cincinatti will cover by halftime, maybe even the first quarter..... "

Interesting how that Cincy loss isnt listed in last weeks plays, just 5 winners and a loss that was so convienently bought up to a push.

Im just saying, post this systems plays, BEFORE the games and let that be the proof. Anyone can claim any record they want after the games.


Football record YTD 7-0

All Plays Posted

[nevadaside]

10-4 on "post game" claims.........they mean NOTHING!

If this system IS working, it would be great to see "PRE GAME" posts on it to follow a long & be able to see the indisputable results.

Thanks for posting your system.......but the forum is only as legit as the documented "PRE GAME" posts on it.

[twincities77]

You guys criticizing the OP are missing the point. It's not like he came on here and said "ZOMG I'm so awesome I went 9-3-1". He mentioned a betting angle he thinks may be worthwhile, then he explicitly laid it out in the post. It provides a nice hypothesis to test in future weeks if nothing else.

[nevadaside]

You guys criticizing the OP are missing the point. It's not like he came on here and said "ZOMG I'm so awesome I went 9-3-1". He mentioned a betting angle he thinks may be worthwhile, then he explicitly laid it out in the post. It provides a nice hypothesis to test in future weeks if nothing else.

Like I said....
"If this system IS working, it would be great to see "PRE GAME" posts on it to follow a long & be able to see the indisputable results."

I hope he will give us pre game posts on this system & wish him the best of luck with it.

Sorry, but post game claims are completely meaningless.

[wal66]

If the system is working it's easy enough to do the work ourselves and watch the line movement. Everyone seems to always want everything handed to them.

[twincities77]

Like I said....
"If this system IS working, it would be great to see "PRE GAME" posts on it to follow a long & be able to see the indisputable results."

I hope he will give us pre game posts on this system & wish him the best of luck with it.

Sorry, but post game claims are completely meaningless.

The OP has given you enough info that you could check him if you really wanted to. I suppose it's just easier to be arbitrarily dismissive though.

Edit: Back to OP, please ignore the haters. Thank you for sharing the possible angle.

[polson22]

interesting theory, and i think non-BCS games can be quite far off handicapping-wise. of course, some people follow it closely and pick off the poor lines, so it does make sense to play in same direction as line movement. i assume the public who's never heard of the most of these teams either doesn't play or is completely random??

BTW, isn't the push where you bought a point really more of a loss? would have lost the game without the extra point. and it's a system so i presume that all games should play unless there's a filtering rule.

[CLASSIC ROCK]

please continue to provide us with these games , i'm always interested in stuff like this

[cakasmaloy]

This thread was not started to prove winning plays... you can check out line history websites and test the theory yourself...

I figured some people would respond the way they did... i dont really care if you guys decide to use this information or not... just thought id give back to this site since its given so much to me...

Also, feel free to gotto a website like wagertracker.com and review the last few weeks. they show all the line movements on all the games...

for the rest of you that are interested ill post the plays... there are usually b/w 5-10. i like to bet them all equally.

[cakasmaloy]

interesting theory, and i think non-BCS games can be quite far off handicapping-wise. of course, some people follow it closely and pick off the poor lines, so it does make sense to play in same direction as line movement. i assume the public who's never heard of the most of these teams either doesn't play or is completely random??

BTW, isn't the push where you bought a point really more of a loss? would have lost the game without the extra point. and it's a system so i presume that all games should play unless there's a filtering rule.

yes, polson, i guess it should have been a counted as a LOSS. sometimes i prefer to buy the points back to the original line movement if im not confident about the play (for example, BallSt opened at +7)

[cakasmaloy]

interesting theory, and i think non-BCS games can be quite far off handicapping-wise. of course, some people follow it closely and pick off the poor lines, so it does make sense to play in same direction as line movement. i assume the public who's never heard of the most of these teams either doesn't play or is completely random??

BTW, isn't the push where you bought a point really more of a loss? would have lost the game without the extra point. and it's a system so i presume that all games should play unless there's a filtering rule.

and yes, your first paragraph is the underlying theory behind this system... i choose the most unpublicized games and jump on FIRST movement b/c i figure those people putting enough action on these "RANDOM" games know that the line isnt accurate... a great example of this last week was UL-Monroe where the line opened at -3 and quickly jumped to -5 in 1 DAY!!

[johnnyutah20]

I guess I'm not understanding your logic. If you wait for team x to move from -4 to -5, and then pick them, you have just successfully screwed yourself out of one point. Why not take them at -4 instead? On the other hand, if you wait for the spread to change several points, then bet in the opposite direction it would make sense.
Traditionally, pro handicappers bet in one of two ways; Either they pick the correct line early before the public has manipulated the spread, or they assume the opening line is the most accurate, wait for the public to sway the line, then bet in the opposite direction.

I apologize if I missed something here, but i don't know why you would wait for a line to get worse before betting on it.

[cakasmaloy]

Here are a list of all the games that initially qualify this week (some plays are already qualified as well):

BallSt/Temple ----> TEMPLE -14 (from -13 to -14)
NM/Wyoming
BG/KentSt
Marshall/Tulane
Ohio/Akron
W.Mich/Toledo
Navy/Rice
UtahSt/NMSt ----> UTAH ST -11.5 (this has already jumped from 10.5-13.5)
Idaho/SanJoseSt
FresnoSt/Hawaii
FlaInt/WesternKy
N.Texas/UL-Laf

E.Mich/C.Mich ---> CMU -21 (this one moved from 21--->22.5--->21.5 within the first 12 hrs so it worries me... i may not play this one OR throw it in a teaser with one of the others)

[cakasmaloy]

I guess I'm not understanding your logic. If you wait for team x to move from -4 to -5, and then pick them, you have just successfully screwed yourself out of one point. Why not take them at -4 instead? On the other hand, if you wait for the spread to change several points, then bet in the opposite direction it would make sense.
Traditionally, pro handicappers bet in one of two ways; Either they pick the correct line early before the public has manipulated the spread, or they assume the opening line is the most accurate, wait for the public to sway the line, then bet in the opposite direction.

I apologize if I missed something here, but i don't know why you would wait for a line to get worse before betting on it.

I can see how it may seem like ur screwing yourself out of point but the whole idea is that you wouldnt know which side to bet unless you first studied the movement... thats why i wait NO LONGER than wed to make all my plays, so i dont get screwed out of any more pts... If you do some research on this trend you can see that these games usually cover by a significant amoutn so those initial poitns you lose dont really make a difference. this is also excellent for teasers for that reason.

[ElCapitan]

Just to clear up a couple things:

1. What exactly do you consider a "small, non-BCS conference"? That's a bit vague.

2. By "not televised on national TV" do you mean just the national networks (Fox, ABC, NBC, ESPN) or do you also consider the 15 or so FoxSportsNetworks around the country that air games of regional interest?

I am also interested in this but I like to make sure I fully understand the criteria fpr selecting plays.

[twincities77]

I can see how it may seem like ur screwing yourself out of point but the whole idea is that you wouldnt know which side to bet unless you first studied the movement... thats why i wait NO LONGER than wed to make all my plays, so i dont get screwed out of any more pts... If you do some research on this trend you can see that these games usually cover by a significant amoutn so those initial poitns you lose dont really make a difference. this is also excellent for teasers for that reason.

Points always make a difference; but I get the rest.

[johnnyutah20]

Making the correct pick before it changes is- and always has been the name of the game. Remember that the opening spread has been calculated by bookmakers who prove their worth year in/out to the casinos. Again, it is a personal choice, but I always bet immediately (and sometimes get hammered for it), or wait until the line changes dramatically (sometimes 6 points) and go the other way. I guess I have never assumed that the betting public knows more than the original Bookmaker. This however is a case-by-case basis. Take Washington State for example. The spread could have moved all the way to +40 and I still wouldn't have taken them because they suck so bad.

[cakasmaloy]

Just to clear up a couple things:

1. What exactly do you consider a "small, non-BCS conference"? That's a bit vague.

2. By "not televised on national TV" do you mean just the national networks (Fox, ABC, NBC, ESPN) or do you also consider the 15 or so FoxSportsNetworks around the country that air games of regional interest?

I am also interested in this but I like to make sure I fully understand the criteria fpr selecting plays.

to be honest, its not down to a science but i basically eliminate all bcs conferences.. sooo ACC, BIG EST, BIG12, BIG 10, SEC, PAC-10, and all RANKED teams regardless of conference... as for television i basically am referring to any game showed NATIONALLY on standard cable... if that makes sense so bascially it means ESPN b/c ABC would never show a game b/w 2 unranked no names if you know what im sayin

[twincities77]

Making the correct pick before it changes is- and always has been the name of the game. Remember that the opening spread has been calculated by bookmakers who prove their worth year in/out to the casinos. Again, it is a personal choice, but I always bet immediately (and sometimes get hammered for it), or wait until the line changes dramatically (sometimes 6 points) and go the other way. I guess I have never assumed that the betting public knows more than the original Bookmaker. This however is a case-by-case basis. Take Washington State for example. The spread could have moved all the way to +40 and I still wouldn't have taken them because they suck so bad.

The underlying theory behind this play is that you're identifying games where line moves are likely being brought on by sharp money, not "the betting public", because presumably the betting public doesn't give as much interest to the Idahos and New Mexico State's of the world, particularly early in the week, to justify line moves. I don't know if it's legit long term or not, but it's an interesting angle to watch.

[cakasmaloy]

I understand why people could be hesistant to believe this systems worth, but i dont really feel like explaining "why it works"... just use the information i have provided and review the past weeks (or even last season). The only reason i havent brought this up earlier is because i couldnt believe the results myself and i didnt want to make an ass of myself or screw anyone over, but now i have faith that this system works.

[cakasmaloy]

The underlying theory behind this play is that you're identifying games where line moves are likely being brought on by sharp money, not "the betting public", because presumably the betting public doesn't give as much interest to the Idahos and New Mexico State's of the world, particularly early in the week, to justify line moves. I don't know if it's legit long term or not, but it's an interesting angle to watch.

exactly! i appreciate your help with clarifying my points bro

[johnnyutah20]

Your response actually made a good deal of sense. Thank you for the explanation. To cakasmaloy- didn't mean to sound like I was shitting on your parade, just trying to understand the logic. Guess the overall importance of this particular system lies in the insignificance of the teams playing.

[cakasmaloy]

Your response actually made a good deal of sense. Thank you for the explanation. To cakasmaloy- didn't mean to sound like I was shitting on your parade, just trying to understand the logic. Guess the overall importance of this particular system lies in the insignificance of the teams playing.

yea man, i dont give a shit who is playing or what my thoughts of the teams are... i just trust the line movement... its hard to do at times but either you commit to the system or you dont

[ElCapitan]

to be honest, its not down to a science but i basically eliminate all bcs conferences.. sooo ACC, BIG EST, BIG12, BIG 10, SEC, PAC-10, i also elminate C-USA and all RANKED teams regardless of conference..

Marshall and Rice are in C-USA. Are you throwing them out next week?

[cakasmaloy]

my bad... i guess i dont eliminate c-usa since Tulsa/Rice was one of my plays last week - thanks for catching that. ill edit post

[johnnyutah20]

Tulsa/Rice was televised. snatched tulsa by 1/2 point.

[cakasmaloy]

i got tulsa at -15 at sportsbetting.com on wednesday... are you sure it was nationally televised? like i said, i havent drilled this thing down to a black and white science yet, but thats one of the purposes of posting this. im too lazy to put in hard work to research this thing but if someone can help identify another trend within this system that would be great! (for example, id normally bet troy-5/midtnst tonight since it moved from -4 to -5 in one day, BUT this game is on ESPN and its the only game scheduled...it worries me that the line movement was not caused by the "sharps money" but instead by the public betting the home favorite!!)

[johnnyutah20]

Yup, I watched the whole game. Sorry can't remember the channel. Here in the pac northwest it was on comcast hd channel 7 hundred something. I think you're right about the Troy game. It's the only game on Tuesday, and I'm willing to bet a lot of hungry gamblers who don't feel like waiting a week are licking their chops.

[clowncar]

He said national tv in the original post ... almost every game is on tv in some capacity.

The theory is sound in a lot of ways expecially if you can catch rogue numbers on the line moves. For instance , in the example used in the first post the line moves from -4 to -5. If you see a bunch of places moving to the 5 and can still catch the 4.5 rogue number somewhere you only lose the half point instead of the full point.

In addition to the sharp money angle of this theory , you also have the theory of fixed games being more probable in smaller conferences and more likely in games where it won't be readily seen on tv by everyone.

Interested to see how this treats you long term and certainly wish you the best of luck

[wal66]

Do yo thang Caka.................something a 43 year old fat white guy should never say.

Caka, doesn't matter what your doing or how your doing it, if it works for you and your making money ride it till it ain't working no more guy.

[cakasmaloy]

Ill post my plays based on this theory either tomorrow or wednesday... looks like there will be quite a few this week so it should be a good test!