1. 06-21-13 11:30 PM #1
    ChalkyDog
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    Thinking about playing the under in gm 5 tomorrow. (Bruins @ Hawks)

    Trends support it, problem is the juice is ridiculous on this total.

    Currently at u5 -150.

    So, to the heads out there - specifically ones familiar with hockey - do I pay the juice or wait for it to drop to u4.5?

    I am really hesitant to pay juice like that on a total.

    FWIW the trends are:

    Under is 6-1 after a game where Hawks opponent scores 5 or more.
    Under is 5-0 after a game where Bruins opponent scores 5 or more
    Under has hit 4 of last 6 games between these two teams.

    Hell, the Hawks ML is the same juice - which is an obvious lean at this point. (Although I doubt I play it.)
    Last edited by ChalkyDog; 06-21-13 at 11:38 PM. Reason: Typo's everywhere
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  2. 06-21-13 11:38 PM #2
    Art Vandelay
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    That's as good as you'll get on this. Gotta lay the extra juice to protect yourself since 5 is a very common number. I like it as well - 2 excellent goalies who both had disastrous games on the same night. I believe that was a fluke. Game 5 will be more like a 2-1 game and if it somehow gets tied at 2, you're protected for the inevitable 3-2 final. Under 4.5 is risky.
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  3. 06-21-13 11:39 PM #3
    ChalkyDog
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    Quote Originally Posted by Art Vandelay View Post
    That's as good as you'll get on this. Gotta lay the extra juice to protect yourself since 5 is a very common number. I like it as well - 2 excellent goalies who both had disastrous games on the same night. I believe that was a fluke. Game 5 will be more like a 2-1 game and if it somehow gets tied at 2, you're protected for the inevitable 3-2 final. Under 4.5 is risky.
    Nice sell. Appreciate that. Getting beat on the hook because I was being a myopic cheap ass would really piss me off.
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  4. 06-21-13 11:55 PM #4
    pinnacle420
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    its already down to 4.5 im going to take the over 4.5 banking on each squad getting 2 goals and then getting the 5 in OT...
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  5. 06-21-13 11:58 PM #5
    ChalkyDog
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinnacle420 View Post
    its already down to 4.5 im going to take the over 4.5 banking on each squad getting 2 goals and then getting the 5 in OT...
    Well, can't wish you luck then.
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  6. 06-22-13 12:41 AM #6
    odog11
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    Could certainly hit, but not a great spot on the under here IMO. Think it will all depend on if the power plays produce at all like they did in the last game, which they probably won't. Bruins will come out very hard and physical and this one could get nasty, pretty much series on the line. Basically guess I am saying under looks good, but not a lock and books have it so juiced up I am passing. Not much value and no fun watching a game and hoping for no goals; this very fact is why there is often great value on the under in hockey and soccer, just not here.

    I say play the game to go to OT instead and just enjoy the game, that is what I have done for for every game. Do have Bruins for the series.
    Last edited by odog11; 06-22-13 at 12:46 AM.
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  7. 06-22-13 02:17 AM #7
    ChalkyDog
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    Quote Originally Posted by odog11 View Post
    Could certainly hit, but not a great spot on the under here IMO. Think it will all depend on if the power plays produce at all like they did in the last game, which they probably won't. Bruins will come out very hard and physical and this one could get nasty, pretty much series on the line. Basically guess I am saying under looks good, but not a lock and books have it so juiced up I am passing. Not much value and no fun watching a game and hoping for no goals; this very fact is why there is often great value on the under in hockey and soccer, just not here.

    I say play the game to go to OT instead and just enjoy the game, that is what I have done for for every game. Do have Bruins for the series.
    Starting in the second rd, I've been playing OT, and it has done well. Never really done that before, but there was an obvious trend going on this playoff. Can't say I've raked it in, because I lost more than I've won - but you are allowed to do that when your getting +250 odds often enough.

    I'm still debating playing the total. Put some betpoints on it, still trying to decide if actual money finds its way onto this total. Most likely will.
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  8. 06-22-13 04:27 AM #8
    2daBank
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    i had it going on the 1st four gms where i was confident both teams would earn a split on road ice so just played then chased the road dog. really couldnt think of anything better and it worked out but now im stuck cause ill be damned if im paying -150 on a freaking total and at same time think hawks prob win this gm but again these games are freaking coin flips so paying the juice on them not worth a damn either.. think im gonna get stupid and take chi in reg +119, surely not every damn gm going to ot right? bos has to lose one in reg at some point, not sure if i believe it yet but guess im convinced chi in reg +119 for me, cant wait for this to go to ot so i can be pissed off !!
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  9. 06-22-13 07:02 AM #9
    oldscho0led
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    both teams will clamp down on defense here because of game 4. under 4.5 is still a good bet imo if you're looking on not laying juice on o/u 5
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  10. 06-22-13 07:20 AM #10
    El Nino
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    Better off just taking the B's at +137 reduced juice.

    This series isn't near as predictable score-wise as San Jose/LA or St. Louis/LA. Crawford isn't playing well and Rask is coming off a less than stellar performance.
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  11. 06-22-13 07:40 AM #11
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldscho0led View Post
    both teams will clamp down on defense here because of game 4. under 4.5 is still a good bet imo if you're looking on not laying juice on o/u 5
    cant remember a time i took a under 4.5 and those assholes didnt end up tied 2-2..gl tho
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  12. 06-22-13 08:39 AM #12
    actiondan
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    Just take the Hawks
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  13. 06-22-13 03:49 PM #13
    newguy
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    I think I will watch first period an look for value live. Hope it's 1-1 and I can get under 5.5 at that point. I also haven't seen anyone on over. You know what usually happens when everyone on same side. That said I looked at trends and am seeing money coming in on over at 64%. Obviously If that's right and its still juiced on under, then that is clearly the play. I just dont usually look at betting % in hockey so not sure how accurate they are
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  14. 06-22-13 04:19 PM #14
    ebelisle22
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    Take the over
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  15. 06-22-13 04:20 PM #15
    ebelisle22
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    And the bruins
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  16. 06-22-13 04:31 PM #16
    billysink
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    Compressed schedule, compressed playoff schedule, grind, grind, grind.

    Tired legs for those who constantly log nearly 30 minutes.

    Four lines of this calibre against tired on both sides.

    Tough to stomach an under at this time of year.


    Public perception dictates that it is a playoff game and gotta be close.

    Tired fukkers playing 30 minutes hook, interfere and trip.

    Ref a big factor. Somebody look that guy up and report.


    Good luck errybody.
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  17. 06-22-13 04:50 PM #17
    newguy
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    Compressed playoff schedule but 2 days off. Legs are as fresh as they can be this time of the year
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  18. 06-22-13 05:03 PM #18
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by newguy View Post
    Compressed playoff schedule but 2 days off. Legs are as fresh as they can be this time of the year
    Exactly, my point is they ain't fresh at all.

    The difference between thirsty and dehydrated ain't much more than a PK or two.

    Anybody got some shit on the ref yet.

    Billysink having a cocktail with neighbors in 10. New folk. Wife chunky with big , pretty though and friendly.

    Keepin the ray bans on so I don't get busted looking at busted.

    Get some shit on this ref or we'll all be busted.
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  19. 06-22-13 05:47 PM #19
    frugalgambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    cant remember a time i took a under 4.5 and those assholes didnt end up tied 2-2..gl tho
    no 2-2 ties in playoffs. i think over 4.5 is my play.
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  20. 06-22-13 05:56 PM #20
    drfunkmaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinnacle420 View Post
    its already down to 4.5 im going to take the over 4.5 banking on each squad getting 2 goals and then getting the 5 in OT...
    Pending6/22/13 8:05pm NHL Hockey 59 BOS/CHI goes to overtime +260* vs BOS/CHI no overtime
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  21. 06-22-13 05:59 PM #21
    drfunkmaster
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    OT is the safest bet. The best odds, heck 3 out of 4 games have gone into OT... the series bet for OT games was -1.5 - 120 ..That hit the 2nd game. OT it is....
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  22. 06-22-13 06:30 PM #22
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by frugalgambler View Post
    no 2-2 ties in playoffs. i think over 4.5 is my play.
    ummm not sure what you mean here, once it tied 2-2 someone has to score the 5th goal...gl
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  23. 06-22-13 06:35 PM #23
    DennisGreen
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    I'm on the over so the under should be golden
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  24. 06-22-13 06:39 PM #24
    easyliving
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    first period Over 1.5 @+150 is too good to pass up
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  25. 06-22-13 06:52 PM #25
    El Sol
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    Quote Originally Posted by easyliving View Post
    first period Over 1.5 @+150 is too good to pass up
    Its at +165 now. Im on it as well, see no reason to be that high other than a hell of a lot of money on the under. This can hit
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  26. 06-22-13 07:10 PM #26
    ChalkyDog
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    Well gents, laid the juice.

    3 to win 2.

    I seriously hate playing unders. Most stressfull wager in sports. In hockey - even worse I imagine (can't remember the last under I played on the ice).

    Anyway, those on the overs - go fukk yourself.
    Those on the unders - lets cash this shit.

    (Those on the Ruins, go fukk yourself x2)

    GO HAWKS!!!
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  27. 06-22-13 07:21 PM #27
    The iron sheik
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    u4,5 for me
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  28. 06-22-13 08:12 PM #28
    ebelisle22
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    right now guarenteed 3 goals.
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  29. 06-22-13 08:23 PM #29
    2daBank
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    Hit hawks-.5 1 st period +185. Took another shot +170 in 2nd
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  30. 06-22-13 08:29 PM #30
    ChalkyDog
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    Hit hawks-.5 1 st period +185. Took another shot +170 in 2nd
    Lookin' good.

    As much as I love seeing Hawks go up 2-0, the 2pt lead in hockey is devastating for under bettors, as it's just a matter of when the Bruins will score.
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  31. 06-22-13 08:36 PM #31
    drfunkmaster
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    Boston is done... they look like deer in headlights. just lost
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  32. 06-22-13 09:02 PM #32
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    Hit hawks-.5 1 st period +185. Took another shot +170 in 2nd
    Going for the hat trick.. Chi-2.5 +150.. Also still have hawks in red +119
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  33. 06-22-13 09:55 PM #33
    ChalkyDog
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    Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 02-25-15 at 01:03 PM. Reason: image does not exist
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  34. 06-22-13 09:57 PM #34
    ChalkyDog
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    Seriously though, screw unders. That was at no point enjoyable until 0.00 in the 3rd.
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  35. 06-22-13 09:57 PM #35
    2daBank
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    Nice hit bro.. Love NHL and nba playoffs. Hardly follow either sport yet it like stealing!!
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