[TheMoneyShot]

This happens on occasion when a large public play is an underdog and suddenly goes to -1 or PK at game time. You go with the Home Team. The reason on this... Sportsbooks want the juice on Miami. "Extra Money In Their Pocket" on a loss. Whether Tony Paker plays or not tonight... it's a perfect dream for books. It's making you think that Miami is the play and that they have a chance. It's not the case.

Miami doesn't have any weapons working for them currently. San Antonio's entire team is running well. Tony Parker's leadership won't be necessary tonight... (if he doesn't play.) They have a loud San Antonio crowd... and all of the players are confident.

Tonight's Play: San Antonio... they don't have to win by 30+ all they have to do is win by 2 or 3. It's rather manageable. And Pat Riley can start singing the blues.

[konck]

I like your thinking ...Im on the Spurs

[Tim Duncan]

Not so fast, my friend. Check out the officiating crew for tonight's game. Stern has sent in the henchmen from Miami/Indiana game 7 and Spurs/OKC, game 6, 2012.

[vyomguy]

ony Parker (hamstring) is expected to play in Game 4 on Thursday, according to Gregg Popovich.

We never expected Parker to realistically sit out of a game where the Spurs can take a 3-1 series lead, but he's not going to be at full strength. It's possible the Spurs will have to rely on their role players and Tim Duncan a little more with Parker banged up, but he'll be out there on Thursday.

[Smoke]

No way jose

[amrit]

^^ vyom, I think Tony Parker is still going to have a huge game. They haven't revealed much about the injury at all and I don't think it's going to hinder him too much. I'm guessing you like the Heat tonight?

[Wrigley]

spurs close this out in 5 miami goes back to miami without the spurs after sunday night

[Wrigley]

^^ vyom, I think Tony Parker is still going to have a huge game. They haven't revealed much about the injury at all and I don't think it's going to hinder him too much. I'm guessing you like the Heat tonight?

can see that playing out as the storyline bad hammy but has huge game

[jmathes]

I have a pretty large wager on San Antonio but thinking about hedging on Miami in game 4. Miami is 11-0 after a loss and their margin of victory is 15+ points which includes a route of the spurs in game 2 of this series. In my opinion that is a stat that can't be overlooked.

[byronbb]

Books have been happy to take Mia series bets as well. I don't think Series price has moved much even with this game 4 line movement.

[kfranz31]

My only thing is can t see the spurs shoot as good and the heat play as bad in game 3 just don't see both happening again

[italianbandit]

A grade 1 hamstring strain will impact Parker's performance tonight.

[Pete0]

I agree with the line movement angle - small dog moving to a small favorite , u then fade the new fav. works out pretty well in the long haul.

BUT, the zig zag factor/ Heat bounce back to avoid b2b losses/ Spurs shooting soooo well last game - All of these point to MIA winning tho . This is still the Miami heat we are talking about - finals Their backs to the wall, will come out fired up 1Q and FG ml for me small. Thats my hunch play of the day

[byronbb]

Anyone care to guess at game 5 line? Assuming Parker looks fine tonight and there are no other injuries can we expect Spurs -2 or is it more dependant on how game 4 goes?

[k13]

I agree with the line movement angle - small dog moving to a small favorite , u then fade the new fav. works out pretty well in the long haul.

Not in the NFL.

[Roadtrip635]

I like the Spurs tonight as well. I think Green continues to shoot well, maybe not as well as his last two games, especially if Wade continues to sag off him as he has the first three games. Neal is a streak shooter, so hard to say how he will perform, but Bonner could very well step up tonight. He had several wide open looks in gm3 that just didn't fall and shots he usually makes. Manu could be huge tonight with Tony not 100%, he will be more of a facilitator. He is not what he used to be or as slippery as Tony, but the Heat still have to respect his penetration which could give open looks for their 3 pt shooters. As long as the Spurs can play solid defense, they can take gm4.

I think it will be a tight game, more like gm1. Should be a great game! I will be at the game tonight, cheering the Spurs on to take a 3-1 series lead!

[chefko]

i was pretty certain that spurs will win after these news:

Report: Mike Miller may start Game 4 Thursday
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is considering starting Mike Miller in Thursday's Game 4, sources told ESPN's Brian Windhorst.

Windhorst reports Miller would likely replace Udonis Haslem, which would definitely help Miami spread the floor better. Miller is red hot in the Finals, hitting 10-of-11 from 3-point range. He's also shooting a ridiculous 50 percent from beyond the arc over the course of the postseason. We won't know anything official until around warmups, but we tend to believe what Windhorst writes considering his access to the team. The Heat are trying to avoid going down 3-1 in the series.

[Speedy88]

A lot of times when line movement crosses the PK, the underdog wins.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Analysis spot on Money Shot and I played this for profit many times in the reg season along with fading the line moves when a star is out. Hope ur wrong tonight though I have Heat ml and pretty confident in the way they always bounce back from a rough game. If Parker is hampered a little that would not hurt my feelings tonight either. GL

[JR007]

Not so fast, my friend. Check out the officiating crew for tonight's game. Stern has sent in the henchmen from Miami/Indiana game 7 and Spurs/OKC, game 6, 2012.

I am in east coast time, did the move to Mia-1 coincide with the time differential, ref assignments were posted 9AM EST ?????

[Pete0]

I agree with the line movement angle - small dog moving to a small favorite , u then fade the new fav. works out pretty well in the long haul.

BUT, the zig zag factor/ Heat bounce back to avoid b2b losses/ Spurs shooting soooo well last game - All of these point to MIA winning tho . This is still the Miami heat we are talking about - finals Their backs to the wall, will come out fired up 1Q and FG ml for me small. Thats my hunch play of the day

I am in east coast time, did the move to Mia-1 coincide with the time differential, ref assignments were posted 9AM EST ?????

The move was more Parker injury news related, hence the line move past -PK.

This trend is still valid for next game. I"m pounding Spurs ML.