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Guys always preach about live lines. While I personally use them extensively in the playoffs you guys need to ease up on it.
A) you're not bringing any new info to the table. Guys like vy know about live lines
B) many here are smart enough to use locals for their main betting
C) many here, believe it or not, want more action than puny 500-1000 live in game limits.
This isn't necessarily true because you're comparing apples and oranges. The expected probability of an outcome of flipping a coin is known. 50% of the time you get heads and 50% of the time you get tails. The expected probability for teams shooting or a player shooting is unknown. There lies the difference. So to estimate each shot's predicted probability of a make, you have to use a point estimate. That point estimate comes from season averages or career averages. Once you have this point estimate, then you can compare the two scenarios. If you flip a coin 100 times, your percentages should be about 48-52% while flipping more obviously decreases that range. Same thing with shooting basketball but instead of using 50% as the point estimate, you use their season average or career average. To conclude, while gambler's fallacy is a real thing, it's ironically become very often misused in gambling.Originally Posted by SteelRain
Bingo.
GL Vyom slightly leaning that way too. Denver ML is a guarantee in my book.... but way too much juice. Denver will be happy to be at home and should get all the calls. Don't recall a Golden State backdoor cover the entire year. I don't think they know how.
90k on denver ml and 150 betpoints on the spread
kinda like blackjack...you know how many face cards are in the deck. if alot of small cards are coming out, you know the face cards are coming
Kinda leaning towards Denver too. I hate to use the "due theory," but Denver is due for a blowout game, and GS is due for a blowout loss.
Seems like a +7.5 GS and Nuggets ML kind of game.
nuggets can'tcan't cover Curry.......
Me too but Nuggs easy dd win tonight
Oh yes Steel I agree with what you're saying superficially but when there are so many variables in BB, I assumed a progression towards the mean, i.e. the Rockets were bound to start making some shots, 3 pt shots, what have you, as any team that goes "cold" has the propensity to regain shooting %, that's what I meant about Vyom's assertion. But I completely understand your point.
This is a gamble in itself. Nuggets come out to a big lead in the 1st and hold it through out the game, 7.5 will be the best you'll ever see and may have missed the boat. BUT, In this case I agree, Warriors will keep it close or take a lead at some point during the game, and I think the odds are very high that you could get this game close to a pick'em with the Nuggets pulling away in the third and fourth.
If you gonna pick nuggets you will get a better number
Listen up people....I love Warriors, Curry went to my high school but all signs point to Denver winning this game, I don't know by how many but I took them on the ML and bought them down to -5. Also, there is no way Clipps lose tonight at home after 2 straight losses ! Nuggets and Clippers to Cash !!! gL
This game screams blowout... but the Nuggets have yet to cover... And that Clippers game could go either way with the line being -5.5.
Nuggets win and clips over!
There was nothing wrong in the initial post..
True, expected shooting isn't as easy to determine as for coin flipping, since the nature of the phenomena is completely different.
However, given that a player (if that's the parameter) has an expected shooting akin to his career shooting, or season shooting, you can still make the same point. I'm completely aware that's not a good or okay assumption to make, but that doesn't matter for the point remains, which is that many gamblers use arguments such as "Team A is DUE for a win, since they have lost 4 in a row", or classically "There will never be two upsets on sunday night, so if OKC loses, I'm betting the house on Miami".
If Houston shoots horribly in the first half and are down by 20, people say that they're going to win the 2nd half minus whatever *because* of the law of averages. That's a complete misperception. Eventhough expected shooting varies with form, opposition defense, ball movement etc etc, Houston is still roughly expected to shoot at a (for them) "normal" (let's just say the theoretical expected value for that situation, even though it's extremely difficult to estimate precisely..usually it's going to be around the relevant statistics..) percentage in the 2nd half. They're not expected to shoot at a much, much higher percentage than "normal" in order to get to about the "average" within the end of the game. They are indeed expected to end up higher than in the first half, but that's because expected shooting obviously will be higher than the percentage for the first half. That's because they shot poorer than expected in the first half, and has nothing to do with "even steven".
If studies show that teams generally shoot at a much higher percentage than "normal" in the 2nd half when they shot horribly in the 1st half, which I personally doubt, it would have nothing to do with law of averages, but rather that the players simply perform better when they have their backs against the wall, or they run more, use more ball movement, log higher minutes for the starters etc etc. The real expected shooting increases, but it doesn't increase *because* it was low in the 1st half, but because of changing factors.
Last edited by Ontnr; 04-30-13 at 05:29 PM.
The Nuggs are gonna do what they've been doing and the Warriors are going to do what they've been doing. The only question here is what will george do. That will decide the outcome.
A friend of mine said the SAME thing today! IF it is going to happen this series, this is the game most likely. Could be a tight game OR Denver finds a way to catch another gear and push push push.
And everyone keeps talking about if you want the Nuggets at a better line, wait till the game starts and go live play. But NO ONE has brought up the fact that IF Denver comes out strong and goes UP, then the line will NOT be back to 7 or so. I was surprised that no one even mentioned that. If Denver starts super strong, maybe they will or maybe they won't, then the line will be dd quickly. Then the value is completely gone. Again, just my opinon. Wishing ev1 the BOL!!!
I brought it up, take a look up a few posts...
Let's go Nuggets! Hopefully I can go 3-0 off your playoff picks vyom...haha
the arena is half empty...wtf
I'm tailing vyom for Denver -7.5
people barely getting off work and probably stuck in traffic but definitely warriors have much better fans...
who gives a phuck about their fans GK? We care about dollars in our phucking pockets!
Should I take GSW +18.5 and hope for a middle?
bookmaker is offering Denver -23.5 +230... I am tempted
Haha...weird feeling it's gonna be a 7-8 point game going into 4th. Gonna take GSW 2nd half. What you guys think?
it's your money but if you have denver why middle for this game?
Pounded on your pick, once again.
Your NBA playoff record, if this one wins would be 3-0 (that's $3k for me).
Thanks.
End of 3rd Quarter Score:
Nuggets 86 (17 point lead)
Warriors 69
why are they doing this to me!!
^^amrit, drink a coolade.
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