[stevenash]

Never in my life have I seen such a collecton of gas cans all starting on the same evening.
I just got done breaking down all the games, and some of these numbers are startling.
I understand it's early in the season, and the numbers will come down, but Holy Mother of God, look at some of these numbers.

The first number is the pitchers ERA, the second number is the pitchers ratio (WH/IP)
You got eight starters going tonight that approach or exceed 2.00 ratio, which translates into 18 baserunners per nine innings.

How does Jon Sanchez even have a MLB job.
13 ERA and 25 baserunners per nine average so far.


Hernandez 6.08/1.35
Arietta 7.20/1.60
Doubront 5.40/1.80
Jimmenez 6.97/1.45
J Sanchez 12.96/2.28
Axelrod 5.79/1.71
Johnson 11.05/2.73
Kendrick 5.40/1.71
Bailey 5.73/1.55
Haren 9.00/2.11
Sanabia 4.91/1.82
Vargas 4.76/2.03
Pelfrey 7.30/2.05
Laffey 5.06/2.06
Francis 5.87/1.96


Now before you run out and wager 100's on the overs, it doesn't always work out like that.
Things have a way of evening out while biting you on the ass, but still, these numbers are horrid.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Clearly there is not enough quality pitchers to go around. Hell, the M's just signed Harang?!!! If anything, the presence of these pitchers in the league should help people to appreciate the greatness of league's top pitchers.

[tatddy]

Yep public gonna get buried betting every single over today.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Some over are very juicy today......not like everything evens out here. Jeff Francis is a single A-ball pitcher that has found a spot in the majors....the only reason his ERA is 6 is that his first start his opposition didn't let him pitch himself into trouble.

I love Francis....he is a UBC boy and I have met him a number of times and have done a lot of work with his old staff at UBC when I was still teaching hitting clinics, BUT, his time in MLB is done....

D2D

[Aussiefalconfan]

public getting burind on sf today....sucks i have them in like 4 parlays
Also col will win the 1st game today for sure

[PaperTrail07]

pretty crazy gotta agree here

[stevenash]

Yep public gonna get buried betting every single over today.

Yes, the public doesn't understand that usually when you get two gas cans, game usually ends up 5-2 on a 8.5 listed total.
Uncanny how that always seems to work out that way.

[RavensFan2k3]

public getting burind on sf today....sucks i have them in like 4 parlays
Also col will win the 1st game today for sure

Why??

[tatddy]

Yes, the public doesn't understand that usually when you get two gas cans, game usually ends up 5-2 on a 8.5 listed total.
Uncanny how that always seems to work out that way.

I don't look up this stuff but I'd venture to say that 8.5 is the biggest killer for over bettors of them all.

[YouHave2outs]

Steve nashy poo, and tat diddy. Give the people a couple of winners here for tonight when you finish your analysis. Thank you in advance and enjoy your week.

[Killer_Demo]

There is only 1 gas-can and his name is Blanton

[BiffTFinancial]

I thought that the collection of SPs on Saturday had me thinking a lot of overs, and the Grand Salami was 119 at 5D that day. Today? 139.

[tatddy]

Funny that if I had to bet 1 over tonight, it would be ATL/KC. Seemingly the best arms of them all tonight.

[stevenash]

Funny that if I had to bet 1 over tonight, it would be ATL/KC. Seemingly the best arms of them all tonight.

Listen closely, this play is not for weak of heart, and you or nobody else needs to tail, KC is going to smoke Medlen tonight.
Public funeral on the Braves, I see it coming, KC beats Atlanta tonight, I see it coming.

Barking doggy with bite !

[tatddy]

Listen closely, this play is not for weak of heart, and you or nobody else needs to tail, KC is going to smoke Medlen tonight.
Public funeral on the Braves, I see it coming, KC beats Atlanta tonight, I see it coming.

Barking doggy with bite !

Take 'em FF too pal. Just like last time. You don't want to be on the edge of your seat when the pens get involved.

[YouHave2outs]

Stack it up on the Royals nashy poo? How many units?

[stevenash]

Stack it up on the Royals nashy poo? How many units?

I don't know what you play. 20 dollars gets you 33 dollars (+165) 100 gets you 165, etc. etc. etc.

[GUMMO77]

Listen closely, this play is not for weak of heart, and you or nobody else needs to tail, KC is going to smoke Medlen tonight.
Public funeral on the Braves, I see it coming, KC beats Atlanta tonight, I see it coming.

Barking doggy with bite !

Let's do it, Nasher.

Ballz....

[YouHave2outs]

I don't know what you play. 20 dollars gets you 33 dollars (+165) 100 gets you 165, etc. etc. etc.

I just wanted to post the Nash photo. Best of luck tonight!

[stevenash]

Take 'em FF too pal. Just like last time. You don't want to be on the edge of your seat when the pens get involved.

KC first five is a documented play (I don't really feel like starting a second thread) I get paid +105 even if it is tied after five innings.
This play goes as is.

174984583-1	4/16/13 4:12pm	$100.00	$105.00	Pending	4/16/13 7:10pm MLB Baseball 977 Kansas City Royals 1st 5 Innings +½ +105* vs Atlanta Braves (J Guthrie - R must Start K Medlen - R must Start)
170892064-1	3/25/13 6:13pm	$100.00	$700.00	Pending	3/30/13 3:00pm Horses Other Sports 1139 Verrazano wins Kentucky Derby +700* vs Field wins Kentucky Derby

[tatddy]

GL. I'll play a total on this one so I can be a part of things here.

74985073-1

4/16/13 4:17pm

$100.00

$100.00

Pending

4/16/13 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 977 Kansas City Royals/Atlanta Braves Over 7 +100* (J Guthrie - R must Start K Medlen - R must Start)

[Dollars2Donuts]

Listen closely, this play is not for weak of heart, and you or nobody else needs to tail, KC is going to smoke Medlen tonight.
Public funeral on the Braves, I see it coming, KC beats Atlanta tonight, I see it coming.

Barking doggy with bite !

I am on the other side, in fact I am on ATL -1 tonight. I think ATL heats up tonight and light Guthrie up like a X-mas tree. Upton and Heyward have yet to get going and I think they break out tonight. These couple of righties are going to get it done.

As for the rest of the series I can see KC winning both of these games.

GL and for anyone who is looking for picks, go check out my thread.


Cheers and BOL SN


D2D

[tatddy]

I am on the other side, in fact I am on ATL -1 tonight. I think ATL heats up tonight and light Guthrie up like a X-mas tree. Upton and Heyward have yet to get going and I think they break out tonight. These couple of righties are going to get it done.

As for the rest of the series I can see KC winning both of these games.

GL and for anyone who is looking for picks, go check out my thread.


Cheers and BOL SN


D2D

No reason all 3 of us can't win in this thread. 3-3 game after 5 Nashy cashes his +1/2 FF bet. ATL wins it 6-4 you win and I win.

[Dollars2Donuts]

No reason all 3 of us can't win in this thread. 3-3 game after 5 Nashy cashes his +1/2 FF bet. ATL wins it 6-4 you win and I win.

Lol, I love it T....nicely done.

[daneblazer]

Don't forget Nova Wood, Nicascio, Gee & MCarthy

[stevenash]

I am on the other side, in fact I am on ATL -1 tonight. I think ATL heats up tonight and light Guthrie up like a X-mas tree.

You know why I like this KC play?

1) Guthrie has been sharp in his two starts.
2) Braves really don't hit Guthrie. 21 for 87 that Brave lineup (.241)is against him, but the more important number is the .309 (very low) OBA

[Dollars2Donuts]

You know why I like this KC play?

1) Guthrie has been sharp in his two starts.
2) Braves really don't hit Guthrie. 21 for 87 that Brave lineup (.241)is against him, but the more important number is the .309 (very low) OBA

I agree with you completely, add to that Guthrie is 7-0 in his last 13 starts going back to last season and the Royals have won 12 of those....crazy numbers. All that said I still expect ATL to win this game for a number of reasons (including Med's start to this season, ATL is stacked with righties, ATL is back at home and they are confident). Tomorrow may be different, but I think the Braves kill it tonight. GL either way though....I like your analysis too!

[stevenash]

I like your analysis too!

Thank you sir.
It's what I do for a living, I'm an I/T operations analyst for an insurance company in real life.
I know, real exciting right? But I like it and I get paid.

[daneblazer]

Guthrie has never faced El Oso Blanco. He gets taken yard tonight

[darrell74]

Clearly there is not enough quality pitchers to go around. Hell, the M's just signed Harang?!!! If anything, the presence of these pitchers in the league should help people to appreciate the greatness of league's top pitchers.

I agree ith that
also gotta say the same thing about bullpens

[easyliving]

even with axelrod I'll gladly take the white sox @+140
also backing phillies with kendrick @+143 as bailey will struggle.
had taken the royals overnight @+163 however I wish I had waited as line has actually moved up a couple cents.

[stevenash]

Guthrie has never faced El Oso Blanco. He gets taken yard tonight

I can play this game too.
Medlen has never faced Sal Perez and he goes yard tonight.
How you doing Dane? Good to see ya

[daneblazer]

I can play this game too.
Medlen has never faced Sal Perez and he goes yard tonight.
How you doing Dane? Good to see ya

Same ole shit. Good luck...I'm a Braves homer but they're due for a down game. Guthrie is a decent pitcher who usually starts off pretty strong. I can see it hitting if they run up Medlens pitch count and get to the pen. I just saw where there's only been 15 games the past 3 years that KC has played where the total has been 7 or less. Compare that to the Braves 96. Detroit with Verlander has 52. Seattle has over 150.

[easyliving]

so whats with the giants line moving the other way? line was -115 overnight gotta think public was all over SF and yet the line is moving the other way and its +100 now.

[tatddy]

even with axelrod I'll gladly take the white sox @+140
also backing phillies with kendrick @+143 as bailey will struggle.
had taken the royals overnight @+163 however I wish I had waited as line has actually moved up a couple cents.

I'm on Phillies FF and full game. GL.