[Justin3587]

Riddle me this... If I take ALL the ML dogs for a day, over the long term will I turn a profit or lose? Basically, I am asking how many dogs actually bark? Percentage wise.

[BigDeem5]

If we knew the answer to this and knew the dogs had a 40-50% chance of winning, we would hammer all the dogs..

What a dumb fukin question, too bad Bronxer isn't here for one his snide remarks.

[Justin3587]

If we knew the answer to this and knew the dogs had a 40-50% chance of winning, we would hammer all the dogs..

What a dumb fukin question, too bad Bronxer isn't here for one his snide remarks.

How is it a dumb question you stupid fukk? Its a math question, no wonder YOU wouldn't be able to figure it out. There HAS to be an actual percentage of ML dogs that hit in baseball games. God damn this forum always gives me a facetious idiot who is just trying to look smart.

[greenhippo]

Yes, there is an actual % but I can't get that you right now. But to answer your question, BigDeem is right in that if overall you came out ahead all the bets ever made would be on underdog MLs. I do however subscribe to the belief that you need to bet more underdog MLs than favorite MLs by a 60-40 ratio in order to have a better chance after hundreds of games to come out on top. Just not how I bet.

[easyliving]

I've been pretty much taking 75% dogs so far in the season with a few -150 and below favs in spots I like and its been fairly profitable. Of course you can't take every dog on the board you gotta choose your spots wisely.

[BIGDAY]

You'd have a better chance at profit than taking the juice that I can almost garantee

[tto827]

On average, dogs hit at a percentage equal to the implied odds given by the line, or just slightly better. But not at a high enough percentage to beat vig if bet blindly over a long period of time. If it were that simple, everyone would do it.

[Justin3587]

Yes, there is an actual % but I can't get that you right now. But to answer your question, BigDeem is right in that if overall you came out ahead all the bets ever made would be on underdog MLs. I do however subscribe to the belief that you need to bet more underdog MLs than favorite MLs by a 60-40 ratio in order to have a better chance after hundreds of games to come out on top. Just not how I bet.

Thanks. You seem like you have a decent system and ways to figure out numbers, thats what I need to do haha.

[Justin3587]

I've been pretty much taking 75% dogs so far in the season with a few -150 and below favs in spots I like and its been fairly profitable. Of course you can't take every dog on the board you gotta choose your spots wisely.

I agree, thats why I was looking to see if anybody had a lead on some percentages so far. Simply because I want to see if it is as close as I think it is.

[Justin3587]

On average, dogs hit at a percentage equal to the implied odds given by the line, or just slightly better. But not at a high enough percentage to beat vig if bet blindly over a long period of time. If it were that simple, everyone would do it.

Yea, I figured as much. I am not very hip to the math aspect of sports betting, I guess I need to get that part of my game together. I usually just go gut. Like I took the Orioles ML today. That's what made me ask, because I almost took the Brews ML as well,

[greenhippo]

Yea, I figured as much. I am not very hip to the math aspect of sports betting, I guess I need to get that part of my game together. I usually just go gut. Like I took the Orioles ML today. That's what made me ask, because I almost took the Brews ML as well,

You can fukk the math part of the equation when certain circumstances present themselves that might run contrary to what's expected. Not an exact example but take my No score 1st inning prop in the Boston/Baltimore matchup. Both teams coming in putting up runs with their lineups full of high average guys, I didn't look at it like that for my bet. It was a home opener for a team off to a good start with a solid pitcher on the mound against a pitcher who performed well against them in his previous two starts. If this same matchup presents itself one week from today I don't make the play. Just need to find your spots.

[Justin3587]

You can fukk the math part of the equation when certain circumstances present themselves that might run contrary to what's expected. Not an exact example but take my No score 1st inning prop in the Boston/Baltimore matchup. Both teams coming in putting up runs with their lineups full of high average guys, I didn't look at it like that for my bet. It was a home opener for a team off to a good start with a solid pitcher on the mound against a pitcher who performed well against them in his previous two starts. If this same matchup presents itself one week from today I don't make the play. Just need to find your spots.

Yea, that's a good way to look at it. I actually thought about that because I remember you telling me that you do that. BUT, I was considered because both lineups are really good this year. But I didn't really take into account the other factors.

[SportGTI]

Dogs are the way to bet in baseball. What I look for in a dog are the following:

Strong starting pitcher who can conceivably go 6 - 7 innings. Weaker teams usually get beat because their bullpens cannot keep a game close. Case in point are the Astros; they actually have a decent starting rotation (particularly when pitching at home). However their lack of offense does not allow them to pitch deep into games and then bullpens blow games.

Teams with speed and defense; I like the Twins a lot in this category as they play the game to scratch out runs. This is very important in underdogs as you always need the chance to scratch out a late run in a close ball game.

Teams with a strong bull-pen; I like the Orioles in this category. If they are playing on the road against a higher contender, you will see them as dogs a lot. But if their bullpen was anything like last year, they have the chance to steal many games.

But in terms of an actual percentage of games dogs win, I don't have the statistical data to run the numbers. I'm sure it changes from year to year, but I'm sure Vegas takes into consideration this when setting lines. They are out to beat our systems.

BOL in your wagers

[TankHankerous]

What are your thoughts on Rockies @ Giants No run 1st -140?

The o/u is 6.5 and starters are BumGarner v La Rosa.

[easyliving]

What are your thoughts on Rockies @ Giants No run 1st -140?

The o/u is 6.5 and starters are BumGarner v La Rosa.

these are sucker bets stay away

[greenhippo]

these are sucker bets stay away

Smart bets if you find the right games. Very lucrative if done right.

[TankHankerous]

I lack discipline!

Like earlier in the season.... that wasn't the first time Harper fukked me with 2 outs in the 1st!

[easyliving]

For example Houston Astros @+159 is an automatic bet for me. Its a very solid price even though the Astros are one of the worst teams in the league Seattle with Saunders starting is nothing special and I'll take my chances. Of course your gonna lose these bets more often than you win them but because it is plus money thats perfectly fine.

[easyliving]

Smart bets if you find the right games. Very lucrative if done right.

I have seen people bet these time and time again and their doesn't seem anything lucrative about them. Would you mind sharing further details what are considering while betting these? Are you usually betting the yes or no?

[matthew919]

Here's what I got for the last four years. Which makes blindly betting on the favorite look pretty good.

Except that doing so results in losing about 200 units, after factoring in juice.

[greenhippo]

I have seen people bet these time and time again and their doesn't seem anything lucrative about them. Would you mind sharing further details what are considering while betting these? Are you usually betting the yes or no?

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...ks-thread.html

14-1-1 in bases with only loss a no score 1st inning prop that was chased and won the next day. I always bet NO and just study pitching matchups and how the teams motivation for that day is.

[moshi]

Riddle me this... If I take ALL the ML dogs for a day, over the long term will I turn a profit or lose? Basically, I am asking how many dogs actually bark? Percentage wise.

It'd be about 50-50 or close to it. Even if you did come out ahead, it wouldn't be by anywhere near enough to be worth it.