1. #1
    VegasDave
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    Vegas Dave's 2009 NFL Football Picks (Every Game ATS!) Week 1

    * - Indicates Upset Pick
    ^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick

    THURSDAY

    Tennessee (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)
    I’m sorry, 6.5 points? Pittsburgh is going to be an absolute force again this year, and they will be as difficult a defending super bowl champion as they come. But have we really all completely forgotten how dominant the Titans were last year? Losing Albert Haynesworth hurts, no doubt, but this team started 10-0 last year and still has most of the same pieces on defense and the top-notch running back duo of Johnson and White. Pittsburgh may win this one, but I’m looking for a grind, not the comfortable victory everyone seems to be chalking up.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh

    (^I know onthewhat will say this doesn't count since I didn't post it, whatever, I forgot. There are plenty on here that get my newsletter, including Smogs, that can vouch for me. I've never lied about my record, why would I start here?)

    SUNDAY

    Kansas City (+13.0) @ Baltimore (-13.0)
    I really wanted to take Kansas City here as I hate the idea of laying so many points like this in week one. But I just couldn’t find a way to. Baltimore should be just as dominant as usual on defense, and with a more experienced Joe Flacco and the addition of rookie Ray Rice, the offense should be even better than last year. All of Baltimore’s losses last year came against elite opponents; this team doesn’t drop its guard against weak opponents, and while Kansas City should be improved this year, going into Baltimore will not be any fun.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

    Philadelphia (-2.5) @ Carolina (+2.5)
    Here’s another game that I wanted to take Carolina in, but I just couldn’t find a good reason to. All of the Vick drama aside, this Philadelphia team looks really strong, especially if it can stay healthy. Asante Samuel VS. Jake Delhomme looks like a pick-6 made in heaven, doesn’t it? Philly starts the season off right.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

    Minnesota (-4.0) @ Cleveland (+4.0)
    No week is going to go without a complete “what the @#$#” game, especially week one. Might as well be the Favre circus. This Browns team doesn’t have a whole lot of redeeming qualities on paper, but they do tend to pull out a really tough game every now and then; why not this one? If they cheat run all game and force Favre to beat them… well, I’ll take my chances. I’m still just completely baffled as to why Minnesota made this move, but that’s a whole different newsletter.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cleveland
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cleveland

    Miami (+4.0) @ Atlanta (-4.0)
    Personally, I don’t think that the huge step back that everyone is predicting for the Dolphins will be that… huge. This should still be a competitive football team this year. That said, Atlanta looks poised to do huge things this year, and “competitive” won’t be enough to steal the home opener away from a deadly Matt Ryan and Michael Turner combination.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Atlanta
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Atlanta

    Detroit (+13.0) @ New Orleans (-13.0)
    Much like the Baltimore game that I didn’t want to lay this kind of chalk, what choice do I have here? IN New Orleans? This could be the year it all finally comes together for the Saints, and even if it isn’t, not a whole lot of teams are going to be able to stop them from putting up 35+, and the Lions certainly aren’t one of the teams that will. Just can’t see Detroit keeping up or slowing this juggernaut offense down.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans

    Jacksonville (+7.0) @ Indianapolis (-7.0)
    Maybe I’m giving Jacksonville too much credit, but 7 points seems like way too many here. The Colts will do just fine this year, but there is a lot of turnover on this team. Head Coach Tony Dungy, Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore, Offensive Line Coach Howard Mudd are all retired, and Manning’s go-to guy Marvin Harrison is gone as well. Jacksonville had a very nice draft and I think they will bounce back a bit this year; it starts with a nice effort against a Colts team that will be working out the kinks on their new identity.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis

    Denver (+4.0) @ Cincinnati (-4.0)

    The Bengals had one of my favorite drafts this offseason, and a healthy Carson Palmer always makes them a heck of a lot more likely to be relevant on Sundays. The Broncos are going in the opposite direction completely; this just looks like an awful football team, and you have to wonder if they are regretting parting ways with Mike Shanahan. After seeing the video of Brandon Marshall completely screwing off at practice, and now getting word that they are trying to lock him down long term? Really? If this were the Raiders, we’d be hearing about how completely stupid Al Davis is and what a joke the organization is. Instead, it’s a non-story. But I digress, that’s neither here nor there; Cinci wins by a TD+
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Cincinnati
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Cincinnati

    Dallas (-6.0) @ Tampa Bay (+6.0)
    This one hurts me so, so bad. There is just absolutely nothing to like about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers here. 82% of the public is on Dallas on the spread, and 88% are on Dallas on the moneyline. Every part of me wants to take Dallas as this looks like the easiest pick on the board this week; but isn’t that exactly what PHILOSOPHICAL PICKS are all about? It’s going to hurt going against the grain all year, but it has treated me very well for the last four years (63% winners in 148 picks), and there really isn’t any reason on paper that Dallas shouldn’t be a double digit favorite. Tampa Bay it is.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tampa Bay
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas

    N.Y. Jets (+4.5) @ Houston (-4.5)

    Love the Jets decision to go with Mark Sanchez, and wish him all the best. I actually think he’ll do fine this week, but I’m expecting a nice season from the Texans; the pieces seems to be in place for good things to happen, and at home against a rookie quarterback, I’ll lay the chalk.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

    St. Louis (+9.0) @ Seattle (-9.0)
    Seattle is a prime candidate to bounce back this season after what was a very disappointing season in 2008. With Hasselbeck back healthy, the addition of T.J Houshmandzadeh, and a year of valuable experience for the young players on last year’s team, they may challenge for the NFC West if Arizona leaves the door open. That said, I’m not quite comfortable banking on them for a double digit victory without seeing it all come together on the field first. They win the home opener, but I have to take the points with the Rams at this point in time.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: St. Louis
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Seattle

    Washington (+6.5) @ N.Y. Giants (-6.5)
    Very interesting game here. Definitely strikes me as one of those “I’m going to lose no matter what I pick” type of games. I take Washington banking on their solid defense, and the Giants solve it and go crazy on offense. I take the Giants, and it ends up being decided by a field goal. So it goes. In New York, I just have to bank on the Giants coming out strong, especially on defense; and doing enough in this one to cover.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: N.Y. Giants

    San Francisco (+6.0) @ Arizona (-6.0)
    Another toughy. San Francisco played teams so tough down the stretch last year that it really looks like Mike Singletary can find a way to keep his unit competitive against anyone. 6 points could prove to be too many, but until Arizona gives me a reason to believe the offense won’t be as high powered as last year, I’ll have to run with them.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Arizona
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Arizona

    Chicago (+3.5) @ Green Bay (-3.5)
    Two very, very intriguing teams this year. With the Brett Favre circus taking all of the media attention away from the rest of the division, these two teams have somewhat flown under the radar; especially Green Bay, who might really have a special season if it all comes together for them. Need to know a lot more about both of these teams on the field before I can really get a feel for them, but I can’t help but think about how much more dominant Matt Forte can be this year with a QB like Jay Cutler under center. This should be a great one to watch that could go either way; I’ll take the points and the upset, though.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago

    MONDAY

    Buffalo (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
    I know what you might be thinking, philosophy pick, right? Well, the Patriots don’t exactly play by the rules. I haven’t forgotten how they went straight up video game style on the league in 2007… and that was when the offense was just getting used to each other. The Patriots holes on defense will expose themselves at points this season; but this won’t be one of them. And the offense? Pull out your PS3 or XBOX controllers and see if you can keep up.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

    San Diego (-9.0) @ Oakland (+9.0)
    And here it is, the absolute philosophical pick slam dunk of the week. No one in their right mind is giving Oakland a chance, no one at all. We all saw what happened in the preseason against the Saints. We’ve all seen how easily teams run over the Raiders; what answer will they have for Tomlinson and Sproles? How will they slow down Rivers passing attack?

    And then the Seymour trade. The guy doesn’t show up, which on any other team the media would be picking on the player. But it’s the Raiders. What a joke of an organization. What a stupid trade. Hahahaha.

    Remember last year on Monday Night when the Denver Broncos completely undressed the Raiders 41-14? The Raiders haven’t forgotten. Being humiliated on your own turf on opening night Monday Night Football is not something you are going to let happen two years in a row.

    On paper, this one looks like a 45-7 San Diego victory. But on the field, the Raiders will see what they can do about getting everyone to stop laughing.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Oakland
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland

    Good luck!
    Last edited by VegasDave; 09-13-09 at 03:47 AM. Reason: Fixed New England typo
    Points Awarded:

    Nickelicious gave VegasDave 3 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    diogee
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasDave View Post


    MONDAY

    Buffalo (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
    I know what you might be thinking, philosophy pick, right? Well, the Patriots donít exactly play by the rules. I havenít forgotten how they went straight up video game style on the league in 2007Ö and that was when the offense was just getting used to each other. The Patriots holes on defense will expose themselves at points this season; but this wonít be one of them. And the offense? Pull out your PS3 or XBOX controllers and see if you can keep up.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota
    Love that one...talk about an epic upset.

    Cle Atl Cin Tam Hou Stl

    Good luck this year Dave.

  3. #3
    eidolon
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    Buffalo (+10.5) @ New England (-10.5)
    I know what you might be thinking, philosophy pick, right? Well, the Patriots don’t exactly play by the rules. I haven’t forgotten how they went straight up video game style on the league in 2007… and that was when the offense was just getting used to each other. The Patriots holes on defense will expose themselves at points this season; but this won’t be one of them. And the offense? Pull out your PS3 or XBOX controllers and see if you can keep up.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Minnesota


    ???Minnesota???
    175 pts

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  4. #4
    Nickelicious
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    Great insights, VegasDave. But there must be something wrong with them, since I agree with almost every one of them and I am bound to lose money on Sunday!

    Well, maybe not....

  5. #5
    Nickelicious
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    Quote Originally Posted by eidolon View Post

    ???Minnesota???
    Eh, just a typo, eidolon. Who hasn't been there and done that?

    I think I can figure out what the play is....

  6. #6
    eidolon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nickelicious View Post
    Eh, just a typo, eidolon. Who hasn't been there and done that?

    I think I can figure out what the play is....
    yeah...just my way of nicely pointing out that he made a mistake, and that maybe he made a mistake on the cle/minn game
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  7. #7
    VegasDave
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    Typo fixed, thanks guys! I was copy pasting the template from last year's when apparently I liked Minnesota

    Like NEW ENGLAND and CLEVELAND to be clear

  8. #8
    Nickelicious
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    Quote Originally Posted by eidolon View Post
    yeah...just my way of nicely pointing out that he made a mistake, and that maybe he made a mistake on the cle/minn game
    Ha, you must be on Cleveland, eidolon! I don't blame you: that line has been stubborn ever since it moved to 4 early in the week.

    Nevertheless, I am on the Vikings in that game. Desptie the fact that Cleveland is one of my top 10 favorite teams in the NFL.

  9. #9
    VegasDave
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    6-4 through first 10 games

    Last year I went 4-12 week one , glad to see that won't be repeated.

  10. #10
    InTheHole
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    Remember that number I quoted you a couple of months ago. I am psychic

  11. #11
    VegasDave
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    6-4 start gets flushed out by an 0-4 evening. Ugh.

    Not feeling great about monday night, either. Just hoping to split and get out of week one with 7 wins.

  12. #12
    onthewhat
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  13. #13
    Chi_archie
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    week one may be one of the tougher weeks..... usually more suprises... not many today

  14. #14
    MexicanStallion
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    I was looking for this thread. I wanted to try and compare the straight up plays with you and see how we match up. I have no proof other than a sheet I write my straight up picks with. Just to throw it out there I would have been 11-3. Losing on Houston, Arizona, and Cincinnati . Pending Patriots & Chargers

  15. #15
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by MexicanStallion View Post
    I was looking for this thread. I wanted to try and compare the straight up plays with you and see how we match up. I have no proof other than a sheet I write my straight up picks with. Just to throw it out there I would have been 11-3. Losing on Houston, Arizona, and Cincinnati . Pending Patriots & Chargers
    You are one of the honorable guys here Mex; no reason not to believe you . Good luck Monday night!

  16. #16
    InTheHole
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    Quote Originally Posted by onthewhat View Post
    ...
    Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 02-26-15 at 10:45 AM. Reason: image does not exist

  17. #17
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    week one may be one of the tougher weeks..... usually more suprises... not many today
    Yeah last year I went 4-12 week one... was hoping to get off on the right foot this year, haha, but no dice. NYG/Wash and Chi/GB both felt like lose-no-matter-what-I-pick games.

    Split tomorrow night and I'd be thrilled with 7-9. Just hope the Pats cover because I really don't want it to come down to my shithead Raiders .

  18. #18
    onthewhat
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasDave View Post
    I'd be thrilled with 7-9.

  19. #19
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by onthewhat View Post
    Last year after week one I went 126-107-7 (54%).

    I've never had a season under .500.

    Really not too concerned about starting off the season (at worst) four games under .500.

  20. #20
    MexicanStallion
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasDave View Post
    You are one of the honorable guys here Mex; no reason not to believe you . Good luck Monday night!
    Thank you sir. I will post the games for this coming week in my NFL Thread. Then see what happens at the seasons end, at least straight up. I am sure I would be rocked if I picked all ATS as well like you. Good luck tomorrow night

  21. #21
    Chi_archie
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    its a marathon not a sprint...... what week 1 reveals to a true capper is infinately more important over a a 250ish game schedule, than the record after 16 games

  22. #22
    Chi_archie
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    Dave is that what there is? 240 nfl games?

  23. #23
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    Dave is that what there is? 240 nfl games?
    256. I was saying AFTER week one, which I went 4-12... my overall record last year was 130-119-7.

    32 teams x 16 games = 512,

    512/2 = 256

  24. #24
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  25. #25
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    Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 02-26-15 at 10:45 AM. Reason: image does not exist

  26. #26
    ZBOIZ
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasDave View Post
    Yeah last year I went 4-12 week one... was hoping to get off on the right foot this year, haha, but no dice. NYG/Wash and Chi/GB both felt like lose-no-matter-what-I-pick games.

    Split tomorrow night and I'd be thrilled with 7-9. Just hope the Pats cover because I really don't want it to come down to my shithead Raiders .



  27. #27
    Chi_archie
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    256 ok..... got it

    so at worst you would be 6-10 out of 256


    I'd love for anyone with balls to give me +117.5 that you would finish under 50% (126-128 or worse) for the whole season...... for 500-1000 bucks.....


    its still a coin flip at this point

  28. #28
    VegasDave
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    For those of you taking my 7-9 comment out of context, honestly, it isn't rocket science.

    I'm going to be pissed off any time I lose, but 7-9 > 6-10. After 4-12 last year and a brutal evening tonight, I'll be more than happy to not get swept tomorrow and end the week on 6 straight losses.

  29. #29
    ronjon619
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasDave View Post
    San Diego (-9.0) @ Oakland (+9.0)
    And here it is, the absolute philosophical pick slam dunk of the week. No one in their right mind is giving Oakland a chance, no one at all. We all saw what happened in the preseason against the Saints. Weíve all seen how easily teams run over the Raiders; what answer will they have for Tomlinson and Sproles? How will they slow down Rivers passing attack?

    And then the Seymour trade. The guy doesnít show up, which on any other team the media would be picking on the player. But itís the Raiders. What a joke of an organization. What a stupid trade. Hahahaha.

    Remember last year on Monday Night when the Denver Broncos completely undressed the Raiders 41-14? The Raiders havenít forgotten. Being humiliated on your own turf on opening night Monday Night Football is not something you are going to let happen two years in a row.

    On paper, this one looks like a 45-7 San Diego victory. But on the field, the Raiders will see what they can do about getting everyone to stop laughing.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Oakland
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Oakland

    Good luck!

    WOW..........knock 'em dead.

  30. #30
    Chi_archie
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    yeah, hard to think the raiders is not a homer call and wishful thinking here......


    Dave will look like a genius if he is right...... and hey Balty was like a 13 point today...so who knows...

    but I won't be tailing that pick

  31. #31
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    yeah, hard to think the raiders is not a homer call and wishful thinking here......

    Dave will look like a genius if he is right...... and hey Balty was like a 13 point today...so who knows...

    but I won't be tailing that pick
    Homer call? It's philosophy pick 101. It brings me no joy whatsoever to have real money on the worst organization in professional sports.

    Wishful thinking, needless to say, all my picks are wishful thinking

  32. #32
    Chi_archie
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    sorry, Dave I just think you are stretching here...... nothing in your philosophy write up "grabbed me'



    GL though, i'm not gonna be playing this game.......

  33. #33
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    sorry, Dave I just think you are stretching here...... nothing in your philosophy write up "grabbed me'

    GL though, i'm not gonna be playing this game.......
    Thank you my friend.

    Just curious, did you watch the Denver/Oakland game last year?

  34. #34
    Chi_archie
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    honestly, I don't think I did...... well I prob caught some of it....

    but I don't remember it at all....


    I only think one guy on the raiders with over 30 receptions from last year remembers that game anyways

  35. #35
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    honestly, I don't think I did...... well I prob caught some of it....

    but I don't remember it at all....

    I only think one guy on the raiders with over 30 receptions from last year remembers that game anyways
    Really can't properly put into words how embarrassing that game was.

    It may not matter Monday night, but I can guarantee you the Raiders remember it really well.

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