[Dollars2Donuts]

D2D, what do you think about Nadal/Ramos over 18 -105? I'm not impressed with Nadal on his fav surface, and his stamina will surely be tested playing twice in one day (his knee in particular). Paire has shown Nadal can be broken, and Ramos has already taken deep sets during this run. I would be looking for a 7-6 6-3 type match here.

WAIT, quick correction on this. The line to bet here is Ramos +6.5 AND Over 18 Games.

Reason: If Nadal wins 6-3 and 6-3 or any combination of 18 games, in this bet Ramos will win as opposed to push. Since this is an expected result (somehwere in this range) we need to maximize our potential. Where this does set us up for a loss is if it goes to a 3rd set and Rafa wins two clearly and Ramos squeeks one out, example 6-1, 6-7, 6-2.....but I will keep our risk of losing either of those to a minimum by betting both.

176637742-1	4/26/13 10:28am	$55.00	$50.00		Pending	4/26/13 9:00am ATP Tennis 143 A.Ramos Games Won +6½ -110* vs R.Nadal Games Won
176637658-1	4/26/13 10:26am	$55.00	$50.00		Pending	4/26/13 9:00am ATP Tennis 143 A.Ramos Games Won/R.Nadal Games Won Over 18 -110*
176637658-2	4/26/13 10:26am	$50.00	$52.50		Pending	4/26/13 10:15am ATP Tennis 147 M.Raonic Games Won -3 +105* vs T.Robredo Games Won

[Potentate]

Damn, my book is only giving me straight up odds. You guys see any chance at all Ramos just wins the match?

[Dollars2Donuts]

Thanks D2D for all the hard work. you've made me a bit of money the past month.

You are welcome my friend. I think that it is pretty typical, but what I am finding that I work in spikes. What I mean by that is I will basically break even for 2-4 days and then I will hit a big winning day, then back to breaking even for another bunch of days and bam, we hit a winner.

There have been a lot fewer 12-2, 13-2, 11-1 type days lately.....but we all need to be patient. This is a pivotal part of the year. Baseball is still new, my best sports have moved into the playoffs, NFL is still what seems like ages away, there are no college sports. Cound I make it on the ATP alone and some playoff action? I think I could......but if you are patient I will pick up in baseball.....it is early in the season, my last few days have been getting sharper AND we really have to remember that we are getting beat by some awful luck as well....not an excuse at all, but we have been on the right side a ton and are seeing games slip away when they shouldn't.

Anyway....like I said, a great start to today for those of you that got on the ATP picks....another great dog winner! My only regret is that I didn't play Ferrer to lose the other day......i ALMOST did and his oppoenent was +2500!!!!!!!!!! I swear I looked hard at it and I am not sure why I didn't drop $25 on it....there was NO way he was that big a favourite in that match.

Anyway...cheers boys!


D2D

[Russian Rocket]

good work D2D

[Dollars2Donuts]

Damn, my book is only giving me straight up odds. You guys see any chance at all Ramos just wins the match?

Yes.....

1 in 1 million



Really, there is a smallish chance, but NO value in making a bet like that. Ramos is a great bet at +6.5 (hell I might pick up the needed games against Rafa) but there is such a small chance that he advances that you may as well keep your money in your account.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Thanks Boys.....

[Potentate]

Yes.....

1 in 1 million



Really, there is a smallish chance, but NO value in making a bet like that. Ramos is a great bet at +6.5 (hell I might pick up the needed games against Rafa) but there is such a small chance that he advances that you may as well keep your money in your account.

I guess at +3000, that's usually the case isn't it! I don't cap tennis so I figured I'd throw the question out there. Thanks for the response and here's to hoping for a monster day. Sigh, it is a great day for a monster day, isn't it.

[Dollars2Donuts]

I guess at +3000, that's usually the case isn't it! I don't cap tennis so I figured I'd throw the question out there. Thanks for the response and here's to hoping for a monster day. Sigh, it is a great day for a monster day, isn't it.

Lol....I totally get it, BUT you can find nice spots at +2000 to +3500 and this just isn't one of them. Rafa, on clay, after losing the way he did to the Djoker will be a tough out.....will he dominate like usual? I don't think so....but will he win this match? Yes.

Today's Wagers:

176639886-1	4/26/13 11:18am	$60.00	$50.00		Pending	4/26/13 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 979 Atlanta Braves/Detroit Tigers Under 7½ -120* (P Maholm - L must Start A Sanchez - R must Start)
176639870-1	4/26/13 11:17am	$50.00	$85.00		Pending	4/26/13 7:10pm MLB Baseball 955 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +170* vs New York Mets (K Kendrick - R must Start D Gee - R must Start)
176639870-2	4/26/13 11:17am	$50.00	$57.50		Pending	4/26/13 7:10pm MLB Baseball 955 Philadelphia Phillies +115* vs New York Mets (K Kendrick - R must Start D Gee - R must Start)
176639870-3	4/26/13 11:17am	$50.00	$63.00		Pending	4/26/13 7:05pm MLB Baseball 965 Toronto Blue Jays +126* vs New York Yankees (A Laffey - L must Start I Nova - R must Start)
176639870-4	4/26/13 11:17am	$50.00	$50.00		Pending	4/26/13 8:10pm MLB Baseball 972 Chicago White Sox -1 +100* vs Tampa Bay Rays (R Hernandez - R must Start J Peavy - R must Start)
176639243-1	4/26/13 11:02am	$105.00	$100.00		Pending	4/26/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 739 New York Knicks +2½ -105* vs Boston Celtics
176639243-2	4/26/13 11:02am	$105.00	$100.00		Pending	4/26/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 739 New York Knicks/Boston Celtics Over 183 -105*
176639243-3	4/26/13 11:02am	$105.00	$100.00		Pending	4/26/13 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 741 San Antonio Spurs -5 -105* vs Los Angeles Lakers
176639243-4	4/26/13 11:02am	$107.00	$100.00		Pending	4/26/13 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 741 San Antonio Spurs/Los Angeles Lakers Over 187 -107*
176639243-5	4/26/13 11:02am	$105.00	$100.00		Pending	4/26/13 10:30pm Reduced Basketball 743 Denver Nuggets -105* vs Golden State Warriors
176639243-6	4/26/13 11:02am	$105.00	$100.00		Pending	4/26/13 10:30pm Reduced Basketball 743 Denver Nuggets/Golden State Warriors Over 211½ -105*
176637742-1	4/26/13 10:28am	$55.00	$50.00		Pending	4/26/13 9:00am ATP Tennis 143 A.Ramos Games Won +6½ -110* vs R.Nadal Games Won
176637658-1	4/26/13 10:26am	$55.00	$50.00		Pending	4/26/13 9:00am ATP Tennis 143 A.Ramos Games Won/R.Nadal Games Won Over 18 -110*
176637658-2	4/26/13 10:26am	$50.00	$52.50		Pending	4/26/13 10:15am ATP Tennis 147 M.Raonic Games Won -3 +105* vs T.Robredo Games Won

[Dollars2Donuts]

And yes, some people will call me a square here....or think I am an idiot. 3 games in the NBA tonight and I am on all 3 road teams AND all 3 overs.....call me crzy, but this is Friday night and that is when these players let loose.

The Warriors will continue to push the small lineup against Denver and it backfires here as Faried comes back into the starting lineup.....I am thinking that this will be a 7-10 point Denver victory in a high scoring affair.

San Antonio is just too much for the Kobe-Less Lakers. This line is just too small for the difference in talent levels here. If the Lakers get down at some point by more than 6 or 8 this game could get ugly. I think San Antonio could have won the last two games by 20+++ but they did just enough to win by 13-15. As most of you know, betting the Lakers made me a TON of money this year.....and I was almost always on them when they won and had them as a no play when they lost....but here they are toast.

Boston, in spite of all of the attention, in spite of all of the emotion just won`t have enough to beat the Knicks by anything more than a point or twe here imo. I love the +2.5 as it may come in handy. I like the over as well as I think both teams are ready to start pouring it on offensively. On paper I would usually point to this being a low scoring, all out war.....but I just feel like people will get loose tonight.

So yes, all three road teams and all three overs.....wow, what a square I am!!!

D2D

[Dollars2Donuts]

Ramos is in the process of blowing up. I was hoping that once Nadal got up a break in the 2nd set he would just conserve energy and win out at 6-4, but he looks very motivated to stomp Ramos out of existance here.

EDIT: Yep, Ramos has given up, down 2 breaks in the 2nd set and both of those smallish bets are toast. Also, Raonic is having a tough time with Robredo and looks like he will be down a set (7-6) and need to win the next two to close it out. I still think that should happen....Raonic was up a break in the 1st set before crapping his pants.

EDIT #2: That's the last time I put money on Ramos. Twice he has got me by giving up in matches.....this guys lazy, flat first serve puts ATP players to shame.....seriously, I don't know if that is his normal first serve, but GEEEEZ it is terrible. I guess I get it.....you lose to Nadal in the first set and on clay I guess you know you are toast.....but to not try....yuck.

[Bawth]

I wasn't able to bet on the Ramos or Raonic game on pinny for some strange reason. I'm still watching the Raonic game, i hope he reaches top 10 this season.

D2D how do you watch all these sports? do you buy the sport packages, watch online, or scoreboard watch?

[houston1]

Did not expect that bagel in the second set from Ramos. Disgusting.

[OldSchoolPro]

Nothing wrong with being a square. Squares have to win sometimes, otherwise they'd be squashed.

I like some of your plays today, too bad hockey season has to end. Well, second season set to begin, that's a good thing.

My Predictions: Penguins vs. Black Hawks in the Stanley Cup Final, the rest is commentary. Maple Leafs to maybe win one series, and watch out for the #4 seed coming out of the East. Ottawa to over-achieve, just bet their totals for as long as they stick around (one or two series).

One NBA play I couldn't tail you on tonight: Knicks at Boston. Knicks look like the right side, but the angle (Bounce-Back in Game Three By Home Team after Double - Digit Loss) screams, much as I'd like to play Knicks (I have them in the series), too much counter-indications, makes NY/BC into a Pass/Popcorn Job for me.

So whatever I'm not betting there (Boston Garden), I'll bet on DN instead, the Nuggets are also in a bounce-back situation, against Golden State.

Regardless, thanks for the picks, D2D!

- OSP

[sirchacal]

no nhl picks ?

[Bawth]

The only NHL pick I like today is EDM/MIN O5

[Dollars2Donuts]

No NHL picks for me, BUT....we have a pod

176671710-1 4/26/13 5:45pm $206.00 $200.00 Pending 4/26/13 10:30pm Reduced Basketball 743 Denver Nuggets/Golden State Warriors Over 210 -103*

The lines have all moved a ton, and this one is moving on our favour......I like it more and more.

[Dollars2Donuts]

There is not one NHL play that I love.....going to stick to hoops for the most part tonight.

[OperatorX]

I'm ready to ride these picks like a dolphin. Everyone jump aboard.

[bald_guy]

There is not one NHL play that I love.....going to stick to hoops for the most part tonight.

Awesome. We don't have to worry about losing on NHL tonight. I got locked in the POD at 211 right after you posted and 210 this time.
Sadly I got locked in the NY Knicks at 184 instead of 183.

Be interesting to see how it all plays out. I missed out on the ATP picks today but turned out for the best. Thanks for tonight's picks.

[Dollars2Donuts]

I'm ready to ride these picks like a dolphin. Everyone jump aboard.

Ummmm, lol. Lets just try and hit 4/6 NBA plays!!

[Dollars2Donuts]

Awesome. We don't have to worry about losing on NHL tonight. I got locked in the POD at 211 right after you posted and 210 this time.
Sadly I got locked in the NY Knicks at 184 instead of 183.

Be interesting to see how it all plays out. I missed out on the ATP picks today but turned out for the best. Thanks for tonight's picks.

Did you get in on ATP yesterday?

That seems to be an ongoing concern. There are a ton of guys that seem to miss some plays and the times they mention it are the times they lose because of it. If you are tailing somebody I think you need to try and be on all of their selections.....

[Dollars2Donuts]

I wasn't able to bet on the Ramos or Raonic game on pinny for some strange reason. I'm still watching the Raonic game, i hope he reaches top 10 this season.

D2D how do you watch all these sports? do you buy the sport packages, watch online, or scoreboard watch?

While I do watch a ton I also do a ton of reading. If you can't be watching it you cannot go from the Espn results, you need to read a synopsis of the game from somebody you trust. Scoreboard watching can be dangerous. Many times I would be doing that and not realizing that one team was dominating every aspect of the game except shots and/or scores.

I think the biggest thing is to be informed but not over think any matchup. Intuition can play a large part in a good cappers repertoire and any intelligent person that knows how to debate can talk themselves out of ANY winner on the board.

GL tonight everyone!

[Overbettor]

While I do watch a ton I also do a ton of reading. If you can't be watching it you cannot go from the Espn results, you need to read a synopsis of the game from somebody you trust. Scoreboard watching can be dangerous. Many times I would be doing that and not realizing that one team was dominating every aspect of the game except shots and/or scores.

I think the biggest thing is to be informed but not over think any matchup. Intuition can play a large part in a good cappers repertoire and any intelligent person that knows how to debate can talk themselves out of ANY winner on the board.

GL tonight everyone!

I love you! Lol, thanks for posting

[Dollars2Donuts]

I love you! Lol, thanks for posting

I hope you are a chick, lol....wait, no lol, I really do hope you are a chick.

[OperatorX]

Ummmm, lol. Lets just try and hit 4/6 NBA plays!!

*sigh* fine fine, no dolphins.

[Dollars2Donuts]

*sigh* fine fine, no dolphins.

Lol...how about just one dolphin and to make it a party throw in a couple of hump-back whales and a sperm whale....

[OperatorX]

Just because the Phillies just took a 4-0 lead, I will do that for you.

sorry my options were limited.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Looks like a 1-1 start in the NBA after neither team could make a basket. Not like it was good d, just crappy shooting. if the White Sox can hold on it will be another decent day on the diamond.

Methinks that it all comes down to the late NBA games.

[Dollars2Donuts]

This is nuts.....when is this going to stop happening??? AGAIN the Sox give up a useless run in the 9th to make our bet a push. This has happened so many times to us lately.....I honestly do not understand our luck lately. Still an ok start.....but we are having 1 or more late inning collapse every night and NO comebacks at all.....

Very frustrating!!!!!

[henrique417]

that white sox game was tough to swallow, a meaningless run with two outs just hurts. ruined a perfectly good bet

[Kpn]

Spurs pick is looking great, I went heavy on spurs -6, I got creamed taking the Wild earlier but I made Spurs my POD x 3 when I learned Nash and Blake were out.

[Kpn]

I had a great day yesterday went 10/11 picks (loser was Washington caps), went heavy on Detroit/Columbus. I've been hitting these playoff fighting teams hard till it's over and they have not been disappointing. I'm thinking about going huge again on Detroit/Columbus tomorrow, both playing very beatable teams and need a win or die. Also big UFC event tomorrow but I know you don't cap that D2, so going to watch the rest of this Spurs/lakers game and hope the Spurs decimate them and maintain this point spread.

[bald_guy]

Did you get in on ATP yesterday?

I most certainly did!! Thanks.
I would have did your ATP today but when I got back from lunch and seen your picks it was too late, they was already playing.

I do my best to play all yours at correct unit size cept MLB. I don't think it can be capped. But I am grading most your MLB days and if you change my mind i'll follow them too.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Well, it looks like a 4-2 night in the NBA after all. Too bad Denver didn't get it done after they had a big lead, BUT we hit the POD and had a GREAT day!!

I will post all results and stats in the am.

[Jayvegas420]

Might get OT!