1. 04-02-13 10:51 AM #1
    keemosabi
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    Is it the right move to hedge with a live bet?

    The other day I bet a NHL game at about -160 odds. After the first, my team was up by about 3, so I live bet the other team for a few bucks at around +2200 odds. Was this the right move? Or should I have just held off on the hedge?
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  2. 04-02-13 10:56 AM #2
    milwaukee mike
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    the right move has nothing to do with your original bet

    if the team you bet at +2200 had a better than 1 in 23 chance of winning the game at that point, then it was a smart bet. if not, then it wasn't.
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  3. 04-02-13 11:10 AM #3
    tto827
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    ^^^ what he said. Regardless of your initial position the second bet should be made only if it is +EV as a standalone wager.
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  4. 04-02-13 11:40 AM #4
    pavyracer
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    I always hedge on live bet in college football because of the strange swings in the game. One game that comes to mind was LSU-Alabama this year where I had LSU pregame but hedged with Bama a few minutes before the game ended.
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  5. 04-02-13 11:58 AM #5
    keemosabi
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    the right move has nothing to do with your original bet

    if the team you bet at +2200 had a better than 1 in 23 chance of winning the game at that point, then it was a smart bet. if not, then it wasn't.
    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    ^^^ what he said. Regardless of your initial position the second bet should be made only if it is +EV as a standalone wager.
    I had a feeling that was going to be the correct answer, but it's hard to give up guaranteed money even if it is -EV.

    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    I always hedge on live bet in college football because of the strange swings in the game. One game that comes to mind was LSU-Alabama this year where I had LSU pregame but hedged with Bama a few minutes before the game ended.
    Yeah that's what I've been doing in hockey games with teams that have been having trouble holding leads.
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