[20Four7]

I like money lines especially when I feel the dog has a good chance to win out right., Tonight had Tenn +270 on MB and had Clemson.... I fell asleep earlier thinking I had a good shot at winnign one. BTW I had the under on the NFL too. I wake up and find out I only won the under. Dammit.

[raydog]

i really hope you arent shocked that you lost. you must realize how unbelievably bad each of these bets were in the first place...

[ATX]

I hate the way the NFL overtime is structured. sudden death is pretty lame IMO. I'd rather they just have ties.

I had the Tenn ML but I also had both dogs with the points. When Tenn had that FG blocked...just a bad omen. I had the Tenn under but not for a whole heck of a lot.

[durito]

At least you didn't have georgia tech -21 -120 live bet like i did. I suppose it's all the same, but that one was pretty funny

[ATX]

i really hope you arent shocked that you lost. you must realize how unbelievably bad each of these bets were in the first place...

The Tennessee ML was not a bad bet. Are you kidding? The better team lost tonight. It went to OT. That is basically telling us that this game was a toss up the ML was way off even at +250

[durito]

game closed -260/228, i dont care what happened +270 was a good bet

[romanowski]

5 dimes has live wagers during commercial breaks of nationally telivised games

plenty of opportunities tonight to lock it in

[raydog]

The Tennessee ML was not a bad bet. Are you kidding? The better team lost tonight. It went to OT. That is basically telling us that this game was a toss up the ML was way off even at +250

you are over consumed with the fact that tn played well and could have won, when the reality of it is that tn was on the road in a huge conf. game against the ex champs who played like absolute dog shit....sure, dig as hard as you want to find value or beat a closing #. the truth is, tn ml was a loser from the start. keep betting dogs on the road against better teams. i love guys like you.

[durito]

you are over consumed with the fact that tn played well and could have won, when the reality of it is that tn was on the road in a huge conf. game against the ex champs who played like absolute dog shit....sure, dig as hard as you want to find value or beat a closing #, the truth is, tn ml was a loser from the start. keep betting dogs on the road against better teams. i love guys like you.

anytime you want to give me +270 when pinny closes -260/228 you let me know. ok?

[raydog]

you will go broke, like thousands of others betting +270 dogs. different game son. i dont give a fukk what the pinny line is, you will go broke betting ml's against 7pt favs in the nfl

[durito]

you will go broke, like thousands of others betting +270 dogs. different game son. i dont give a fukk what the pinny line is, you will go broke betting ml's against 7pt favs in the nfl

So, book my bets. Everytime pinny closes -250 through -270, I'll take +270. You in?

[ATX]

MONEYLINES09/02 18:20 +224 / -25009/05 03:35 +217 / -24309/07 11:45 +243 / -27509/07 12:40 +227 / -25909/07 12:55 +233 / -26509/09 22:00 +239 / -27109/09 22:15 +243 / -27509/09 22:25 +253 / -28509/10 02:40 +243 / -27509/10 11:20 +248 / -28009/10 11:25 +251 / -28309/10 11:50 +260 / -30009/10 11:55 +258 / -29009/10 12:05 +253 / -28509/10 15:30 +248 / -28009/10 19:11 +243 / -27509/10 19:25 +238 / -27009/10 19:30 +228 / -260

go broke?

you really have no idea, do you? I'll cut you some slack, but when a game goes OT and one has the dog ML...are you serious? my biggest hold% is on moneylines. I had North Texas for a LOT. I won't go broke betting anything when my line is better than what is being offered lol.

[raydog]

sorry durito, you will go broke. no reason for me to be a part of it. you guys that think you can beat insignificant #s can have at it. keep donating with your shitty ml bets. keep thinking that if you beat a pinny #, that you are a winner and you will still keep getting hammered by picking the wrong side of shitty losing ml bets.

[ATX]

Pittsburgh wasn't even a 7 point favorite anyways. The books had it 6 and 6.5, the actual line was 3 which is what happened to land. a case can be made up to 4, but that is it.

[romanowski]

if tenny wins the coin flip they win the game

[raydog]

atx, my point to durito was based on nfl bets..sorry i didnt make that clear.

[ATX]

romo, I guarantee raydogged doesn't bet baseball successfully.

[durito]

sorry durito, you will go broke. no reason for me to be a part of it. you guys that think you can beat insignificant #s can have at it. keep donating with your shitty ml bets. keep thinking that if you beat a pinny #, that you are a winner and you will still keep getting hammered by picking the wrong side of shitty losing ml bets.

so i presume you are taking the favorite there for as much as you can get?

pinny had a to win $20,000 limit on this ml before the game. surely you bet $58,000 since it was so easy?

[ATX]

ok, so what was YOUR moneyline on this game?

-500?

[raydog]

lots of losers of tonights ml bets chiming in.... i guess nobody is a loser even when the score says different. i guess bookies have survived this long off booking winners like you guys

[durito]

atx, my point to durito was based on nfl bets..sorry i didnt make that clear.

that makes it even better (for me)

if you can find +ev on closing NFL sides at pinnacle, you are the best of the best.

Anytime you want to give me that +270, let me know

[romanowski]

raydog do you want to do a point challenge?

[durito]

lots of losers of tonights ml bets chiming in.... i guess nobody is a loser even when the score says different. i guess bookies have survived this long off booking winners like you guys

for the record, i rarely bet any full game nfl sides. today i bet pitt -270, that was a bad bet, regardless of what happened in the game. the market knows a lot more than i do.

[Dark Horse]

you are over consumed with the fact that tn played well and could have won, when the reality of it is that tn was on the road in a huge conf. game against the ex champs who played like absolute dog shit....sure, dig as hard as you want to find value or beat a closing #. the truth is, tn ml was a loser from the start. keep betting dogs on the road against better teams. i love guys like you.

Pittsburgh ran for 36 yards. They didn't play like sh*t. They were outplayed. Only reason they won is because TEN missed two FG's. Do you know the chances of that? In the end it came down to a OT coin flip, which is about, oh..., -110 value.

I had TEN 1H +3.5, but it wouldn't occur to me to talk down on someone who recognized the SU value for the Titans in this game. With Polamalu out that certainly looked like a strong bet at halftime.

Look back at this game at the end of the season and see how many teams held the Steelers to fewer rushing yards than 36.

And, for the record, the Steelers are not the ex champs.

[ATX]

lose? I had 6.5 +100/105 for about 4 times as much as the ML

I didn't bet the Clemson ML b/c that line wasn't off by much

I hit the Carolina ML in week 1 of the NFL last year, and the moneytrain continued all the way to the Pittsburgh moneyline in the Superbowl.

[romanowski]

as atx said; its best to take the points with a smaller % on the ML

I didnt play either ML

but to say he made bad bets is way off

im curious how Pitt is much better then Tenny, when they were both quality playoff teams just last year

Pitts OLine is so weak, proof is their horrible 3rd and 1 conversion rate

Clemson gave away 14 points. Clemson's D Line is very underrated and Gatechs defense is porous.

Not to mention historically the two schools always play close

neither bet was a bad bet

[ATX]

Pinnacle warned me off the Clemson ML, I think BW gave me the 5'

[raydog]

romo, i cant pick my ass with a dozen hands pal. what i do know is that some of us make a hell of a lot better living at this gambling gig than others. i will leave it at that. you guys that think that you are winners because you got the best +pinny line possible by 20c ... happy for ya, you are great, in your own minds. every single gambler wants to think that they are winners and when they get busted and have to reload, they think its because they got a bad break. i dont give a shit. keep depositing money. dont sit here and try to give me shit about beating numbers and how good you are unless you admit that you are grinding out some arb money from somewhere else. the fraction of money that you can win by beating the pinny line is very small and thats if you beat it on every single bet..which you arent doing. even guys like nicky, who is a die hard #s beater, will admit that he is a long time loser when not betting the best numbers of each side. cap the better team, then find the best numbers. too many successful books and broke ass gamblers for any of this to really be discussed

[durito]

romo, i cant pick my ass with a dozen hands pal. what i do know is that some of us make a hell of a lot better living at this gambling gig than others. i will leave it at that. you guys that think that you are winners because you got the best +pinny line possible by 20c ... happy for ya, you are great, in your own minds. every single gambler wants to think that they are winners and when they get busted and have to reload, they think its because they got a bad break. i dont give a shit. keep depositing money. dont sit here and try to give me shit about beating numbers and how good you are unless you admit that you are grinding out some arb money from somewhere else. the fraction of money that you can win by beating the pinny line is very small and thats if you beat it on every single bet..which you arent doing. even guys like nicky, who is a die hard #s beater, will admit that he is a long time loser when not betting the best numbers of each side. cap the better team, then find the best numbers. too many successful books and broke ass gamblers for any of this to really be discussed

So, your contention is that the market (pinny) is not efficient in the NFL. If so, I presume you kill it then.

Why do think all books kick out arbers BUT pinny?

[ATX]

romo, i cant pick my ass with a dozen hands pal. what i do know is that some of us make a hell of a lot better living at this gambling gig than others. i will leave it at that. you guys that think that you are winners because you got the best +pinny line possible by 20c ... happy for ya, you are great, in your own minds. every single gambler wants to think that they are winners and when they get busted and have to reload, they think its because they got a bad break. i dont give a shit. keep depositing money. dont sit here and try to give me shit about beating numbers and how good you are unless you admit that you are grinding out some arb money from somewhere else. the fraction of money that you can win by beating the pinny line is very small and thats if you beat it on every single bet..which you arent doing. even guys like nicky, who is a die hard #s beater, will admit that he is a long time loser when not betting the best numbers of each side. cap the better team, then find the best numbers. too many successful books and broke ass gamblers for any of this to really be discussed

do some homework before you make asinine assumptions

do you have any idea what my NFL hold is? grinder?

I didn't beat the Tenn ML by 20 cents, I beat it by a freaking dollar

I understand that 99.5% of gamblers lose long term and I will help you but I'm expensive

you think I give a rats ass about some guy named Nicky Santoro and his quest to beat numbers? you gave it away right there. you worship guys that actually say they win.

[raydog]

dark horse, i forgot, who are the defending nfl champions?

i believe pinny is fairly efficient durito. i would be silly to say different. how many games can you arb off their lines alone? how many books do you need to have money at, in order to be able to use them efficiently? maybe they realize that you cant beat them at anything long term? i dunno. but simply saying that you should be a winner because you got +270 earlier in the day when the line closes at +250 has always been a myth that a lot and i mean a lot of broke losers have lived by. you, for one, know that it doesnt take that much for someone to move a number with their bet. lot of people with more money than brains

[durito]

I don't follow. I can promise you that on a market with 20k limits at pinny if you are getting that number consistently, you are making +ev bets. You can test this, the data is out there. The edges are small and variance is a bitch, but pinnacle can not deal those limits and vig if they don't know what they are doing. So, I don't get what your contention is, you say they are efficient. That doesn't mean every line is, but on the whole they are. They profile their players, they move on the sharp money.

As for arbing, beats me, I'm not interested. I'd rather play the soft side. Yes, there aren't that many books that give you this chance anymore, but they are out there occasionally. Give it a try, you won't lose.

[raydog]

sorry atx...didnt know you were the best nfl bettor this side of the border. then again, i didnt expect anything less from you. you seem to be the guy who can fly a fighter jet during the day then teach physics at the local college at night. if someone asked you, there isnt anything that you havent done in your lifetime. i forgot that you can do anything over the internet so what you chime in with is purely comical to me. be it true or not, i simply dont give a fukk. you and everyone else who bet tn ml beat it by at least a fukking dollar. you think i dont know what it opened at???.... you still lost. glad you have a knack for picking better teams, there are always a few who just win. its plain and simple, they win. everyone is capable of getting the best numbers possible and you know what....they still fukking lose. so, congrats to those of you who have a knack of picking winners and getting the best number while doing it. you are in the less than 1percentile. i can deal with that

[donjuan]

It's always entertaining to watch two posters talking to each other on completely different levels. It's pretty clear Raydog has no clue how Durito is using the term "efficient" and even the basic concept would pretty clearly be way over his head.

[raydog]

durito, you arent telling me anything that i havent been doing for the last 8 years. you simply arent making a huge living off of beating numbers alone. just like tonight, you said you played pitt even though you think it was a bad # and a bad bet. you have to do some sort of capping in order to be a winner. you know this and im not sure why its even being debated. yes, its documented that beating the pinny # is profitable... if you pick the right games and you dont pick any wrong games and you have enough dough to handle the variance... so many variables. sure, its a grand idea on paper, but for the common gambler, making money isnt happening by beating the #s alone.