1. #1
    HousesCane
    HousesCane's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-24-13
    Posts: 2
    Betpoints: 30

    When to middle?

    Hey everyone this is my first post here at sbr so my apologises if this post is in the wrong place or if the information has already been covered.

    I had a spot today where I was betting nba Washington vs golden state. Bet golden state at -8.5 points at $1.92 before the start of the game. At half time golden state were up by 18 points and the new line was Washington + 18.5 points at $1.92. Is this a clear stop to go ahead and buy Washington at the +18.5? Considering that if golden state with between 9 and 18 points I win both bet or any other result I essentially break even minus the vig. On a side I figured it was a clear middle because of the big spread of points to clear both bets (9-18 points).

    What factors should be considered when choosing to or not to middle?

    Thanks guys all feedback is welcome.

  2. #2
    tto827
    tto827's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-01-12
    Posts: 9,078
    Betpoints: 76

    Probably a good opportunity there.

    Important thing to remember is that your first bet has major value at that point, so if you only expect the lead to increase, and your not worried about your original bet losing, then your just throwing darts hoping the 2nd half falls for you.

    Mathematically if the 2nd half bet itself is not +EV it's a bad move, but for a 9 point middle I think you pull the trigger most of the time.

  3. #3
    BigDeem5
    2013-2016 NBA: 461-378-24 +52.65u
    BigDeem5's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-26-11
    Posts: 17,190
    Betpoints: 2158

    Never fukking heard of ya, we are fukking gamblers, no need to middle

  4. #4
    shackfu99
    Update your status
    shackfu99's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-26-12
    Posts: 86
    Betpoints: 2038

    Forget middling 2H. There is no set # that's gives you an edge. In your example you are giving your equity back to your book.
    When middling you want to maximize your equity. ie: Say 1 book has -9.5 -110 and another has +8.5 -110. You would lay 10u on each side. You risk 1u to win 20u. That's having equity in a wager.

  5. #5
    Vinnie Paz
    Vinnie Paz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-27-12
    Posts: 12,177
    Betpoints: 3413

    Quote Originally Posted by shackfu99 View Post
    Forget middling 2H. There is no set # that's gives you an edge. In your example you are giving your equity back to your book.
    When middling you want to maximize your equity. ie: Say 1 book has -9.5 -110 and another has +8.5 -110. You would lay 10u on each side. You risk 1u to win 20u. That's having equity in a wager.
    ?????????

  6. #6
    cockblocker
    cockblocker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-26-09
    Posts: 1,268
    Betpoints: 19

    You guys know nothing about gambling if you pass a 10 pt middle when the team leading is shooting over 50% and the losing team is under 40%.

    Put at least half your original bet, this middle is going to hit more than it loses.

  7. #7
    shackfu99
    Update your status
    shackfu99's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-26-12
    Posts: 86
    Betpoints: 2038

    Put at least half your original bet, this middle is going to hit more than it loses.
    prove it.

  8. #8
    tto827
    tto827's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-01-12
    Posts: 9,078
    Betpoints: 76

    Quote Originally Posted by shackfu99 View Post
    Put at least half your original bet, this middle is going to hit more than it loses.
    prove it.

  9. #9
    cockblocker
    cockblocker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-26-09
    Posts: 1,268
    Betpoints: 19

    Quote Originally Posted by shackfu99 View Post
    Put at least half your original bet, this middle is going to hit more than it loses.
    prove it.
    I will. Ill put all the plays in this thread.

  10. #10
    HousesCane
    HousesCane's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-24-13
    Posts: 2
    Betpoints: 30

    Thanks guys for all the solid feedback.

  11. #11
    The Kraken
    The Kraken's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-24-11
    Posts: 28,917
    Betpoints: 532

    You've gotta treat this as two individual plays, not one middle. They should both be +ev or no bet. So to summarize, only middle when the second bet is a +ev play, regardless of your first bet.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: The Giant

  12. #12
    The Giant
    The Giant's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-21-12
    Posts: 21,480
    Betpoints: 233

    Quote Originally Posted by The Kraken View Post
    You've gotta treat this as two individual plays, not one middle. They should both be +ev or no bet. So to summarize, only middle when the second bet is a +ev play, regardless of your first bet.
    This guy gets it.

  13. #13
    cockblocker
    cockblocker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-26-09
    Posts: 1,268
    Betpoints: 19

    Hawks -1.5

    Atl shooting .395

    Ind .585

    This a small play. Its only a 6 pt middle. Thought the score was 60 to 53.
    Last edited by cockblocker; 03-25-13 at 07:23 PM.

  14. #14
    shackfu99
    Update your status
    shackfu99's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-26-12
    Posts: 86
    Betpoints: 2038

    I hope you hit it.

  15. #15
    cockblocker
    cockblocker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-26-09
    Posts: 1,268
    Betpoints: 19

    Nuggets -8.5

    NO .548

    Den .344

    19 pt middle

  16. #16
    cockblocker
    cockblocker's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-26-09
    Posts: 1,268
    Betpoints: 19

    Not only the 2nd half, Hawks cover game line too.

Top